Outpacing the Competition: A Systems Engineering Challenge · Outpacing the Competition: A Systems...

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Outpacing the Competition: A Systems Engineering Challenge

24 October 2017

NDIA Systems Engineering Conference

VADM Paul Grosklags, Commander, NAVAIR

Distribution Statement A:

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited PR# 2017-9282

Day in the life of an SE dealing with PMs

Framing the Challenge



Life Has Been Good!

4



Sea Lanes Remain the Lifeblood of Our Economy

90% of global trade by volume / 70% of global trade by value98% of telecoms traffic

5



Competition is Back

6



Changing Environment

7

Sources: Janes / RAND / US-China Commission

Advanced Fighter/ Strike

Aircraft (3rd/4th Generation)

Advanced Attack

Submarines

Short Range

Ballistic Missiles

Advanced ASCM Capable

Surface Combatants (DD/FF)

1999



Advanced Fighter/ Strike

Aircraft (3rd/4th Generation)

Advanced Attack

Submarines

Short Range

Ballistic Missiles

0

30

60

90

120

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

PRC Military Spending (Official Figures)

Spending in Billions (US)

Aircraft Carrier

Changing Environment

*2014 Budget Increased 12.2%

Sources: Janes / RAND / US-China Commission

1999

2015

Advanced ASCM Capable

Surface Combatants (DD/FF)

8

9Distribution Statement A:


USN and PLA(N) Capability Fielding Trends

Fielding

Initial Estimate

Observed/Expected

DF-21D Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile

J-15 Carrier Based Strike Fighter

Cooperative Engagement Capability

HypersonicsYJ-12/18 Anti-Ship Cruise Missile

LUYANG III

Anti-Satellite Capability

Type 055 Cruiser

9

Initial Operational

Capability

POM-08

FY-17

Naval Integrated Fire Control -Counter Air

Joint Strike Fighter (F-35)

Standard Missile - 6 High Altitude Anti-Submarine Warfare Weapon

Next Generation Jammer

Air and Missile Defense Radar

CG(X)Maritime Strike

Tomahawk

We’re Slower!

USN Warfighting Advantage has Steadily Eroded



5 Key Points

CNO’s Challenges to all Flag/SES

Must be competitive Existential Threat No #2

Think Strategically Critical Thinking

Going Digital

Outcome / Product Oriented Vice Process

Sense of Urgency Should be Uncomfortable

“If It’s Not Making the Fleet More Lethal –

Stop Doing It!”

10



NAVAIR Response

Commander’s Intent – Remains Unchanged

• Increase Speed of New Capabilities to Fleet• Increase Readiness

Strategic Initiatives – Focus on Speed

• Capabilities Based Acquisition – Rapid delivery of integrated capabilities

• Sustainment Vision 2020 – Predictive, integrated sustainment operations

• Digital Business Operations – Integrated business systems “apps” at the desktop

11

Accelerating delivery of fully integrated capabilities which are designed,

developed, and sustained in a Model Based Digital Environment

IS a Systems Engineering challenge



Capabilities Based Acquisition

Integrated Warfare Analysis

establishes CONEMPS,

Effects-Chains, required attributes

CONEMPS and Effects Chains are

modeled at the System of Systems

(SoS) level

SoS Model

Digital Linkage

System Model

Systems are developed in a

Model-Based environment

(SE Transformation)

Enabling Capabilities-Based T&E

Constructive Virtual Live

DIGITAL

MODELING

HARDWARE

IN THE LOOP

INTEGRATION

LABORATORY

LVC-based training

required for Fleet

integrated ops

System models form “Constructive”

basis for LVC M&S environment

INSTALLED

SYSTEMS TEST

FACILITY

FLIGHT TEST

Digital Thread Enables Rapid Delivery of Integrated Capabilities

12



SET Framework

13

CDD

Inte

gra

ted

Te

st

Ve

hic

le #

1

MDAO*/SET-BASED DESIGN

* Multi-Disciplinary Analysis & Optimization

Elimination of paper CDRL artifacts and

large-scale design reviews

Mechanical Design Models

Electrical Design Models

Software Design Models

Testing Methods & Models

Analysis Tools

Instantiate and

validate design

in models

Move rapidly to mfg.

Substantiation and

insight via modeling

environment

Re-balance as

required

Single Source of TruthInstantiate

System Spec in

a model

Mission

Effectiveness

optimization

V5.0

Right-size CDD –

very few KPPs, all

tied to mission

effectives

Continuous insight/oversight via digital

collaborative environment and interaction with the

Single Source of TruthIn

teg

ratio

n E

ven

ts

Design & Manufacture Release



Execution Framework

14

Functional Areas

Integrated

Mo

delin

g En

viron

Wo

rkforce/C

ultu

re

Pro

cesses/Meth

od

s

Techn

ical Research

Po

licy/Legal/Co

ntracts

Each Element requires work in the 5 Functional Areas in order to reach “Full Maturity”

SET Research Team(Blackburn)

Modeling Env’nt Team(Fields)

Policy, Contract, Legal Team

(Vacant)

Jaime Guerrero, SET Lead David Meiser, SET Action Officer

Workforce/Culture Team

(Carlson)

Process &

Methodology Team (Chamberlain/Polakovics)

Element 1 Element 2 Element 3 Element 4

SET Framework Links(S. Raley)

SET Task Framework

Enablers



Surrogate System Experiment

• Simulate Execution of SET Framework

• Use UAV scenario developed in

SERC models

– Combine SysML models already in

development – requirements,

with functional and logical views

– Use MDAO of parametrics for some KPPs

• Consider NATO example

• Characterize objectives and thresholds

– Create a model-based contract simulating RFP / SOW

• Use commercial organization to simulate industry organization

– Refinement of SysML models to reflect corrections / innovations with physical allocation

views

– Integrate with multi-physics-based Initial Balanced Design

– Simulate continuous virtual reviews and derive new objective measures for assessing

maturing design

• Simulate source selection based on dynamic models and simulations

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• SET applies to both Government and Industry

• Government must reassess its role in the acquisition

process and the methods for executing that role

1. Criteria for gov’t involvement / oversight (not every decision)

2. If involved, must be on developer’s timeline

3. Must bring value to the decision – not just positional authority

• Industry must fully leverage advances in HPC-enabled

models and participate in establishing a collaborative,

integrated digital environment which

enables continuous interaction

Industry-Government Partnership

16



Nice Picture of something

17

For More Information, Contact: Mr. Dave Cohen, Director Systems Engineering

(301) 757-5542

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]



Integrated Warfare Analysis

Fleet operators work with engineering to develop

concepts of employment (CONEMPS), effects-chains

& required attributes

System ModelSystems are developed

in a model-based integrated digital environment (SE Transformation)

CONEMPS and effects-chains are

modeled at the System of Systems

(SoS) level

SoS ModelResults in optimized

capability development document

DataFeedback

Loop

SoS Models

Industry Models

System models form

“Constructive”basis for LVC

M&S environment

Enabling Capabilities-Based T&E

DigitalModeling

Hardware in the loop

Integration Laboratory

Installed Systems

Test Facility

Flight Test

Required for Fleet Integrated Ops

Integrated Digital Environment accelerates delivery of operationally relevant capabilities

Capabilities Based Acquisition

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STATUS-TRENDS-PREDICTIONS

Sustainment Vision 2020 – What it Looks Like

Data Warehouse

Infrastructure

Capability

& Capacity

FLEET

Health/ReqtsSupply | Maint | Ops

Supply

Posture

(Range and

Depth)

VectorRFM

PAM

CBM+AMDBEnd to End

AM

MPS&E

RAW DATA

APPLICATIONS

/ TOOLSDynamic

Scheduling

Optimization and

Prioritization of

Resources to Meet

Fleet Needs…

Maintenance Planning

Supply Support

Workforce

Facilities

ANALYSIS

FLEET DECISIONS

FLEET SUPPORT

Universal Information

Faster Decision Making

Predictive Sustainment Planning

Reduced Cost

Increased Readiness

Workforce

Capability &

Capacity

19

Maintenance

Planning &

RCM

Analysis

LOGCELL



Digital Transformation: Business Operations

20

Stan

dar

d W

eb P

roto

cols

an

d S

ecu

rity

Financial ContractsCommon

ComponentsProducts

Planning Execution Reporting

BFM

Comptroller

PM IPT Lead

Contracts

Dat

aSe

rvic

esC

om

po

sab

le

Ap

plic

atio

ns

Dat

a

• Infrastructure enables tailored applications while maintaining consistent core

business rules and data

• Applications “composed” from reusable services

• Consistency of Data and Business Rules across Business Operations

• Agility in supporting rapid Business Process changes

• Lightweight services with short development lifecycle

• Individual Services “owned” by Authoritative Competency

PM

Workforce

Data Store

Reporting

HQ AD FRCWD

• Applications built in silos

• Data duplicated in tools causing manual re-entry

• Data locked in tools preventing ease of re-use

• Application changes slow and costly

• Functionality duplicated across tools causing inconsistencies and

difficulty in coordinating business process changes

• Can’t tailor to support unique process across business units

• Similar functionality reinvented over and over again at great cost

Today: Monoliths in Silos Tomorrow: The Composable Business

Reporting

Budget Staffing AcquisitionRequirements etc…

Data Store

BFM

PlanningTool

ExecutionTool

Budget

Data Store

IPT Lead

PlanningTool

ExecutionTool

Sta

ffin

g

Data Store

Contracts

PlanningTool

ExecutionTool

Contr

acts

Develo

pm

ent

eff

ort

Develo

pm

ent

eff

ort

Develo

pm

ent

eff

ort

Data Warehouse

Data Store



USN vs PLA(N) Capability Fielding

We’re Being Out-Sticked

USN Warfighting Advantage Against PLA(N) has Steadily Eroded

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