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Securing the global aquatic food supply – a shared responsibility between producer and consumer nations

Prof Grant D. Stentiford

European Union Reference Laboratory for Crustacean Diseases Pathology and Molecular Systematics Team, Cefas, UK

What is ‘food security’? ‘...all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life’ FSN Forum 2007; http://km.fao.org/fsn

• Population 9bn by 2050 • 300m more ‘middle class’ ($10-$100 day-1) • Currently 1 in 7 are underfed, 1 in 7 are overfed • Increasing competition for land, water etc

Food security is therefore considered an aspiration rather than a statement of reality – a great challenge requiring significant multi-national engagement

Seafood is the most highly traded food

commodity

Global population will reach 9 billion

by 2050

Rapidly expanding middle-income sector within these

growing populations

Elevated food production along with changes in consumption pattern Consumption will undergo

‘expansion’ and then ‘substitution’

Significant acceleration in the

globalised trading in foods

Aquatic production must double (~240 million Mt) to satisfy global

demand

Limitations of fisheries to increase supply; aquaculture to provide the

next food revolution

Economic development accompanied by a

‘westernization’ of diet, (e.g. increased meat intake) Drivers for aquatic food

production and demand

Source: Stentiford et al. (2012)

AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION MUST DOUBLE BY 2050 TO SATISFY GLOBAL

DEMAND FOR AQUATIC PROTEIN (FAO 2014)

Aquatic production and trade

20 Mmt in 1950 157 Mmt in 2011 40% enters international trade (>any food group) Export value of aquatic products $127bn in 2011 Most production in Developing economies (including LIFDCs) with trade to Developed economies BUT growth area in trade is between Developing economies

‘Shrimp continues to be the largest single commodity in value terms, accounting for 17 percent of the total value of internationally-traded fishery products’

(FAO, 2007) Aquaculture for national food or national income?

Jennings et al. (2016). Fish and Fisheries DOI:10.1111/faf.12152

Source: FAO data

Aquaculture

FW fisheries

Marine fisheries

Source: FAO data

Fisheries and aquaculture in the EU and Asia

Jennings et al. (2016). Fish and Fisheries DOI:10.1111/faf.12152

Fisheries and aquaculture in the UK

Jennings et al. (2016). Fish and Fisheries DOI:10.1111/faf.12152

Aquaculture

Marine fisheries

UK imports and exports of fish and fish products

Trade gap

Jennings et al. (2016). Fish and Fisheries DOI:10.1111/faf.12152

Source: Seafish

UK imports and exports by species

Jennings et al. (2016). Fish and Fisheries DOI:10.1111/faf.12152

Salmon in, salmon out

Oily fish….

What is produced?

50%

25%

25%

Finfish

Aquatic plants

Invertebrates

What is produced?

And who produces it?

2012 - Global production of aquatic animals 157Mmt: 60Mmt aquaculture ($130bn) 90Mmt fisheries Asia dominates aquaculture production (90% volume, 80% value)

China 2012: ~60Mmt of animals from fisheries (17Mmt) and aquaculture (42Mmt). Plus 13 Mmt of aquatic plants (mostly from aquaculture)

UK 2012: ~1Mmt of production (2/3 fishery,

1/3 aquaculture)

The future supply chain

Seafood will continue to be highly traded. Some nations will net import. Growing middle class in Asia and Latin America Increased south-south trading. Climate related shifts in wild stock abundance. Supply chains will alter to 2050.

Mean exports (black) and imports (red) of fish products out/to UK by

country, by value and volume. 2011-2013.

Predicted change in demand for aquatic protein by country/region to 2050

Mainly shrimp

Jennings et al. (2016). Fish and Fisheries DOI:10.1111/faf.12152

Jennings et al. (2016). Fish and Fisheries DOI:10.1111/faf.12152 Open access

What does aquatic food security look like?

Disease and poor product safety limits production and prevents free trading

A safe aquatic food chain

Seafood: most highly-traded food commodity 40% ($127bn) enters international trade Highly perishable - several safety hazards National and international regulations for purpose of public safety Risk-based surveillance/control measures preferred over continuous monitoring Risks are chemical and biological

Chemical hazards (1)

Chronic environmental exposure to pesticides, heavy metals and organics (e.g. PCBs) can occur

When pregnant: no more than two tuna steaks/four cans of tuna a week

Consumption of UK seafood leads to radiation exposure well below the European limit of 1 mSv y-1

Fukushima – 7.5m times Japan's legal limit for radioisotopes in public water,

Japanese government set limit on

radiation in seafood and began screening fish

India and China banned import of fish from certain areas of Japan, and the

USA

Chronic environmental exposure to pesticides, heavy metals and organics (e.g. PCBs) can occur

Chemical hazards (2) a. veterinary products used to treat aquatic animal diseases b. dietary exposure through food or feed

EU - coordinated monitoring programme by MS under Directive 96/23/EC (on measures to monitor certain substances and residues thereof in live animals and animal products). Includes main pesticides/therapeutics used in aquaculture EU Sets Minimum Required Performance Limits (MRPLs) e.g. Chloramphenicol 0.3µg/kg. Under 1% of tests are non-compliant

In 2010, the EU banned import of Crystal Violet-contaminated shrimp from Bangladesh

Enteric viruses - biggest safety issue in consumption of raw shellfish Norovirus (NoV). Human fecal sources. Shed in large numbers during infection. Low infectious dose. Stable. Numerous outbreaks each year (1:219 of UK population affected annually) Commonly found in filter-feeding molluscs from coastal habitats. Depurated slowly.

Emergent enteric viruses include Hep E from environmental reservoirs (e.g. pigs) and Hep A (responsible for largest ever

shellfish associated outbreak: 300,000 people in 1980’s)

‘76% of oysters from commercial oyster production areas in the UK were NoV +ve’

Winter seasonality

Biological hazards (1) – Human pathogens

Genus Vibrio. Common, optimal growth >15oC and <25ppt salinity. ~12 taxa cause human disease Vibrio parahaemolyticus. Significant and increasing (Western Europe contains the fastest warming marine ecosystems on Earth) – current surveillance is poor

Vibrio vulnificus. Emerging threat

Baker-Austin et al Nature Climate Change (2012)

Baltic (1989-2010) – Numerous cases of wound infections Recreational exposure to seawater during summer Numerous fatalities by V.

vulnificus or non-O1 V. cholerae

Biological hazards (2) – Human pathogens

Invertebrate diseases

WSSV EMS

Yield-loss from disease in aquaculture >$6bn per annum (FAO, 2014)

Fish diseases

UK. Salmon lice. £33m pa-1. Resistance to current treatments. New approach needed EU. Sea bass/bream. VNN a major issue. Formalin withdrawn for use in aqua. No viable alternative at present Global. Pangasius and Tilapia. Rapid increase in production. Some poor practice (e.g.crowding, morts as feed), biosecurity, farm clustering, poor Govt. infrastructure. Emergent diseases likely (e.g. TLV in 2016)

A shockproof aquatic food chain

Focus on crustaceans

Global production of wild/farmed crustaceans >10 million Mt ($40bn). Fishery/culture sectors ~ 50% each. Fisheries static, culture expanding (e.g. $12-15bn shrimp). Production/consumption globalised. EU is top consumer (>$3bn pa-1)

A shockproof industry?

A shockproof industry? WSSV outbreak, Ecuador 1998/9: 63 Kmt ($280m) losses in 6 months >150 000 jobs lost

Ecuadorian shrimp exports fell from 115 Kmt in 1998 to 38 Kmt in 2000

El niño a significant risk factor….

Shrimp aquaculture ~ $12-15bn pa-1 WSSV is no.1 pathogen (>$1bn pa-1)

$15bn since emergence Losses to ‘big 5’ = all EU imports pa-1

Emergent diseases are frequent (e.g. EMS)

WSSV

Diseases continue to emerge….fast

Shrimp aquaculture ~ $12-15bn/annum Loss due to ‘top 5’ viruses = total import of shrimp to the EU per annum (300Kmt) Total losses due to WSSV alone may be $15bn since emergence in early 1990’s

Future…… Doubling of production by 2025 – 6Mmt of shrimp (~$30bn) Proportional loss due to ‘top 5’ viruses = total shrimp production of Thailand* (>600Kmt) Worst case losses (~40%) would equal total current yield (3Mmt per annum)

A ‘shockproof’ shrimp industry?

*or, total import to EU + USA

Disease undermines market investment (high risk)

‘Disease’ is #1 issue facing industry (GOAL, 2013)

Too little investment in disease management*

*Dr James Anderson, World Bank Global

Programme on Fisheries and Aquaculture,

GOAL 2013

An ‘uninsurable’ industry?

Wider supply chain issues

Increasing focus on ethics in the supply chain: Slavery, labour abuses, carbon footprint, habitat loss, responsible fishing, pollution, LCA Wider social/environmental responsibility (e.g. RASS)

http://www.seafish.org/rass/

Centralised disease laboratory networks ‘Article 32(7) of Regulation (EC) No 882/2004 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 29 April 2004 on official controls performed to ensure the verification of compliance with feed and food law, animal health and welfare rules’

EU: 44 EURLs in terrestrial/aquatic animal health & food/feed safety

Mollusc Diseases www.eurl-mollusc.eu

Crustacean Diseases www.crustaceancrl.eu

Fish Diseases www.eurl-fish.eu

Member State National Reference Labs (NRL) High biosecurity status High animal health status Strong trading position

Asia: Expert laboratories but no centralised network not present

Decentralising diagnostics Simple and quick

Pond-side testing

Remote locations

Smartphone app

Centralised data

Decentralised diagnostics/field reporting can bridge the gap between farmers and policy makers The farmer is the keystone in facilitating surveillance and disease management – a process traditionally reserved for national Competent Authorities

Genetics

Is it the first approved GMO animal approved for sale in the United States? Yes. But up to 80% of the processed foods sold in the USA contain GMOs, mostly from plant crops. Corn, soy, potato and even some apple crops are genetically engineered to either produce more or to resist insects and drought Time Magazine, Nov 19, 2015

Final (starting) messages

Disease is the major impediment to expanded/sustainable aquaculture production Completion of the crop cycle will become a core measure of sustainability. Acceptance of GM? Focus on mitigating outbreaks (rather than striving for ‘freedom’) may be a realistic target in some areas

Decentralised diagnostics/field reporting can bridge gap between farmer, scientist and policy maker The farmer is the keystone in facilitating surveillance and disease management – a process traditionally reserved for national Competent Authorities Moving majority of industry to ‘insurable’ is critical

UK in context

UK Food Security Challenges (1)

Will the UK population eat its

own aquatic produce?

UK shellfish landings total >£270m pa-1 Much is exported

Will the UK consumption of

aquatic protein be sustained by relying

on imports? UK is a net importer of seafood (700kt, £2.2bn pa-1)

Shrimp are most valuable import (>£0.5bn pa-1) and rising

UK Food Security Challenges (2)

What is the optimal balance between food

production and national marine conservation

objectives?

UK Food Security Challenges (3)

Proposed production of 10kt (half of current UK production) of mussels in a 15km2 farm

array. Spare or share approach?

What will be the optimal balance of

aquaculture and fisheries production

in the UK?

UK Food Security Challenges (4)

Coastal infrastructures based on legacy fishing industries may be well suited for development of

mariculture

Cefas Evidence Theme (5)

Will biotech play as important a role as nets and cages in

future aquatic production?

Nutritional benefits of consuming aquatic

protein may be achieved from other sources

Cefas Evidence Theme (6)

What is the role of policy in setting the vision for national

production?

‘Aquaculture policy in the UK is a devolved matter, with the separate administrations of Wales, England,

Northern Ireland and Scotland responsible for its collective oversight’

180kt, £650m pa-1

Scotland - increase finfish from 164kt to 210kt and shellfish from 6.5kt to 13kt by 2020 Wales – increase finfish from 761 tonnes to 2kt and shellfish from 8.5kt to 18kt by 2020 England – no set target UK total - 27% more finfish/66% more shellfish by 2020

Contact grant.stentiford@cefas.co.uk

http://www.cefas.co.uk http://www.crustaceancrl.uk

Twitter: @grantstent www.linkedin.com/grantstentiford