Opening ProvocationsCristina Botella. Universitat Jaume I (Spain)

Andrew Raij, University of South Florida (Tampa, FL, USA)

Oct 16, 2012

Theme

1. Computationally-modeling health-decision making processes

2. Especially the dynamic nature of such processes

3. In a way that cross-cuts health behavior-change silos, and

4. Incorporates irrationality.

Importance of Decision-Making Models

Predict future health behaviors

Precise, real-time, opportunistic intervention

Tailored to the individual and context

What Should be in this Model?

Weighted Behavioral Determinants

Individual History

…

Behaviors

Interventions

…

Feedback

Personalization

State Machines

...

Inputs

Outputs

Processes

Behavioral Determinants

Attitudes, Motivations, Cognitions, Emotions, Goals, Rewards, Incentives, Self-efficacy, Self-regulation, Social Context, Psychological Context, Physical Context, …

Practical?

Imagine _______ a model with all of these components… Designing Studying Testing Programming Teaching …

How Do We Simplify?

Hierarchical models Can a combination of simpler sub-

models capture real-world complexity?

Dimensionality reduction What are the most important inputs? Can we leverage population models? Can we focus on t = now?

Integrating Dynamics

Can we do dynamism by ignoring it? If conditions X are true, then do behavior/intervention Y

How do we determine the timing of an intervention?

Need a model that can monitor the near-past, now, and the near-future Predict need for intervention in advance Determine need for intervention during or after event

Integrating Irrationality

Can we predict irrationality or is it unpredictable by definition?

Is it deterministic, random or somewhere in between?

Can irrationality be modeled as “random error/noise” in the system(s)?

Self-control dilemmas

Which simple heuristic are people using in these situations?

Emotions are part of homeostatic regulation and are rooted in reward/punishment mechanisms.

Antonio Damasio- Descartes' Error

- The Feeling of What Happens: Body and Emotion in the Making of Consciousness

- Looking for Spinoza: Joy, Sorrow, and the Feeling Brain

- Self Comes to Mind: Constructing the Conscious Brain

Crowd Researching

Show people that they can get a healthier society

iPhoneEcological Momentary Motivation

Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA)

How could we provide people the key information at the key moment, helping them to do the “right” choices? That is, how could we use ICTs tools in order to provide people with useful and “non-irrational” heuristics?  ICTs pervasive tools embedded in the environment to serve people as guides and motivational devices helping them to achieve “savvy decisions”.

Merging Behavior Change Silos

This meeting!

Training next generation to work in both worlds

Support sharing through standards (de-facto?) Language Tools Data and data formats Data processing/modeling

Other Thoughts & Questions?

How much data do we need to build a good model? Is the BIG DATA approach feasible?

Are we missing any determinants of behavior? Intervention types?

What simple heuristics, such as emotion, can we use?

Can we use VR environments to practice difficult situations in advance?

Where does error and bias fit in to the model?

How do we ensure this model is safe?

I “need” to be conected

Some ethical cautions