Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of...
Transcript of Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of...
![Page 1: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Risk Management
in a
Hypermobile World
Omega Seminar Series
Bartlett School of Planning, UCL 11 February 2009
www.john-adams.co.uk
![Page 2: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
• The world’s biggest mega transport project subsumes all the
others. It is the promotion of mobility.
• All significant participants in the project are now globe
spanning enterprises.
• The motor industry measures success by numbers of
vehicles sold. Judged by this criterion, despite global over-
capacity, it is prospering
• Growing still faster is the aviation industry, generating mega
projects for plane and airport builders
• Railways, after decades in the doldrums, are being
revitalized by mega high-speed projects
• The result is an emergent hypermobile society.
December 2007: working paper for Omega Project
![Page 3: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Oops!
“Hypermobility breeds fatalism. Without egalitarian
restraint of present trends, dystopian science fiction
appears likely to provide our best guide to the future.”
![Page 4: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine
& electronic mobility too cheap to meter)
• more dispersed (more suburban sprawl)
• more polarised (greater disparity between rich and poor)
• less culturally distinctive (the McCulture will be further advanced)
• less child-friendly (children’s freedoms will be further curtailed by parental fears)
• more anonymous and less convivial (fewer people will know their neighbours)
• more dangerous for those not in cars (more metal in motion)
• fatter and less fit (less exercise built into daily routines)
• more crime ridden (less social cohesion and more fear of crime)
• subject to a more Orwellian style of policing (more CCTV surveillance)
• less trusting (the rise of the audit/risk-assessment culture)
• less democratic (the majority will have less influence over the decisions that
govern their lives)
![Page 5: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
![Page 6: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine
& electronic mobility too cheap to meter)
• more dispersed (more suburban sprawl)
• more polarised (greater disparity between rich and poor)
• less culturally distinctive (the McCulture will be further advanced)
• less child-friendly (children’s freedoms will be further curtailed by parental fears)
• more anonymous and less convivial (fewer people will know their neighbours)
• more dangerous for those not in cars (more metal in motion)
• fatter and less fit (less exercise built into daily routines)
• more crime ridden (less social cohesion and more fear of crime)
• subject to a more Orwellian style of policing (more CCTV
surveillance)
• less trusting (the rise of the audit/risk-assessment culture)
• less democratic (the majority will have less influence over
the decisions that govern their lives)
![Page 7: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
60
188
80
221
40
537
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
May-04 Sep-05
God
Sex
Risk
May 2004 Sept 2005
Google Hits - millions
![Page 8: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Entrance to the Health and Safety Laboratory, Buxton
CAUTION These plants are covered
in sharp spikes that may
puncture the skin if touched
DO NOT HANDLE
![Page 12: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
![Page 13: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
![Page 15: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
![Page 17: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Drake
Gilbert
Saxton
Davis
Hakluyt
Wright
Hudson
Baffin
Halley
Dampier
Bruce
Cook
Ramsden
Roy
Mackenzie
Rennell
Vancouver
Park
Clapperton
Barrow
Lander
Parry
Colby
Back
Ross
Biscoe
Franklin
Stuart
Eyre
Galton
Everest
Hooker
Bates
Burton
Speke
Murchison
Livingstone
Baker
Kirk
Godwin -
Austen
Clarke
Markham
Yule
Stanley
Doughty
Thomson
Murray
Curzon
Scott
Shackleton
Keltie
Gertrude Bell
Hogarth
![Page 19: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Drake
Gilbert
Saxton
Davis
Hakluyt
Wright
Hudson
Baffin
Halley
Dampier
Bruce
Cook
Ramsden
Roy
Mackenzie
Rennell
Vancouver
Park
Clapperton
Barrow
Lander
Parry
Colby
Back
Ross
Biscoe
Franklin
Stuart
Eyre
Galton
Everest
Hooker
Bates
Burton
Speke
Murchison
Livingstone
Baker
Kirk
Godwin -
Austen
Clarke
Markham
Yule
Stanley
Doughty
Thomson
Murray
Curzon
Scott
Shackleton
Keltie
Gertrude Bell
Hogarth
![Page 20: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
The death of Captain Cook
![Page 21: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
![Page 22: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
![Page 23: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
![Page 24: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
![Page 25: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
![Page 26: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Different kinds of Risk
Perceived
through
science
Perceived
directly
Virtual
risk
Perceived
through
science
Perceived
directly
Virtual
risk
Perceived
through
science
Perceived
directly
Virtual
risk
e.g. climbing
a tree, riding
a bike, driving, car
e.g. cholera: need
a microscope to
see it and a
scientific
training to
understand
Scientists don’t
know or cannot
agree: e.g.
BSE/vCJD,
global
warming,
low-level
radiation,
pesticide
residues,
HRT, mobile
phones,
passive smoking,
stock market ….
Events dear boy!
Terrorism
![Page 27: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
The New Yorker March 21, 1988
![Page 28: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Perception
of risks Accidents
Propensity to
take risks
Balancing
behaviour
Rewards
![Page 29: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Perception
of risks Accidents
Propensity to
take risks
Balancing
behaviour
Rewards
The risk thermostat
Money, power,
love, glory, food,
sex, rushes of
adrenaline,
control ...
Money, health,
life, status,
self-esteem,
embarrassment,
jail, loss of control ...
![Page 30: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Voluntary
Risk
Imposed
Self
controlled
Diminished
control
No
control
Pure – rock
climbing
Applied –
driving
Cycling
Plane
Train
Benign
Profit
Motivated
Malign
Mobile phone
masts
GMOs
Murder
Risk
Amplification
Acceptability
of risk
Nature
Economy
Mount
Etna Impersonal
Al Qaida
![Page 31: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Perception of risks
Accidents
Propensity to take risks
Balancing behaviour
Rewards
Bottom loop bias
Reducing risks, protecting people
![Page 32: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Perception of risks
Accidents
Propensity to take risks
Balancing behaviour
Rewards
Top loop bias
Moral hazard
![Page 33: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Perception of risks
Accidents
Propensity to take risks
Balancing behaviour
Rewards
Risk thermostat with perceptual filters
![Page 34: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Individualist
Fatalist Hierarchist
Egalitarian
A typology of bias
![Page 35: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
www.acm.ab.ca/safety/images/ fault-tree.gif
![Page 36: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
bad luck
foresight
the present
![Page 37: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
bad luck
foresight
the present
hindsight
![Page 38: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
bad luck
foresight
the present
hindsight
![Page 39: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
hindsight foresight
the present
Culpable negligence
bad luck
< 1 : 10,000,000 = 1 : 1
![Page 40: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
hindsight foresight
the present
Culpable negligence
bad luck
![Page 41: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
hindsight
Culpable negligence
risk assessment
the present
![Page 42: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
“The swings are packed away at night because kids might climb
the fence and use them unsupervised and hurt themselves.”
Rubberized matting barriers
No swings
No children
![Page 43: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
![Page 44: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
![Page 45: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Individualist
Fatalist Hierarchist
Egalitarian
The legislators Purveyors of “guidance” Enforcers Compliance managers
Single issue campaigners Lawyers Insurers Media
![Page 46: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Individualist
Fatalist
Hierarchist
Egalitarian
The legislators Purveyors of “guidance” Enforcers Compliance managers
Single issue campaigners Lawyers Insurers Media
![Page 47: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
![Page 48: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
http://www.edwardburtynsky.com/WORKS/Ships/Shipbreaking/Shipbreaking_04.jpg
![Page 49: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
BG LNG Plant, Idku, Egypt
There must be no blood
![Page 50: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
![Page 51: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
![Page 52: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
This bike is a pipe bomb
Total fatalities caused by
pipe bombs disguised as
bicycles, world-wide = 0
![Page 53: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Risk management: where are the keys?
![Page 54: Omega Seminar Series Bartlett School of Planning, UCL John ...€¦ · The social consequences of hypermobility (the pollution-free perpetual-motion engine & electronic mobility too](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052613/5f1e887f2c355670e252b5f6/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
www.John-Adams.co.uk