Økonomisk Perspektiv

Skrøbelig vækst

Cheføkonom Helge J. PedersenDebatmøde i Erhvervsforum Nimb Tivoli, 8. maj 2014

• 3/15/2013

Hovedscenariet – vækstfremgang i år

• De avancerede økonomier driver verdensvæksten - de fremvoksende har problemer

• Sverige bliver Nordens vækstlokomotiv: – Adstadigt tempo i Danmark. Indikatorerne peger op – eksporten leder opsvinget

• Lempelig pengepolitik længe endnu på globalt plan

• Geopolitiske risici knyttet til bl.a. situationen i Ukraine

Global

2 • 23 April 2014

2 •

Helge J. Pedersen

Lav inflation og høj ledighed…

Global

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

% y/y

% y/y

Forbrugerpriser

USA

Euroområdet

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

% %Ledighedsprocent

Euroområdet

UK

USA

3 • 23 April 2014

3 •

Helge J. Pedersen

…baner vejen for fortsat lave styringsrenter. Nationalbanken har sat renten op af hensyn til kronekursen

• Hence, we do not exclude further monetary policy easing and we firmly reiterate that we continue to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.

• This expectation is based on an overall subdued outlook for inflation extending into the medium term, given the broad-based weakness of the economy, the high degree of unutilised capacity and subdued money and credit creation. At the same time, we are closely following developments on money markets. The Governing Council is unanimous in its commitment to using also unconventional instruments within its mandate in order to cope effectively with risks of a too prolonged period of low inflation.

Mario Draghi, 3 April2014

Global

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

%Stramning

Eurozonen

Danmark

USA

Lempelse Lempelse%

Stramning

4 • 23 April 2014

4 •

Helge J. Pedersen

Forward guidance er med til at holde renten nede i euroområdet

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

%%10-årige statsobligationsrenter

USA

Danmark

Linier markerer begyndelsen på stramningsperioder

Conondrum tiden

Tyskland

Global

5 • 23 April 2014

5 •

Helge J. Pedersen

Lånerenterne bunder ud, men vil være lave længe endnu…

Danmark

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

pct.

Fast lang rente

Kort variabel rente

pct.

Boligrenter

pct.

• 3/15/2013

6 •

Helge J. Pedersen6

Danmark

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

440

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

440

mia. kr., 2005-priser

mia. kr., 2005-priser

BNP

Væksten er forsvundet ud af den danske økonomi og kommer kun langsomt tilbage…

7 • 23 April 2014

7 •

Helge J. Pedersen

…indikatorerne for 2014 er dog pæne…

Danmark

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

% k/k

Indikator, årlig ændring

BNP-vækst, 1 års g.g.

% k/k

8 • 3/15/2013

8 •

Helge J. Pedersen

Middel Let

2014K2

2013K4

Lavkonjunktur Højkonjunktur

..og lavtrykket over dansk økonomi aftager i styrke

Danmark

Især industrien ser optimistisk på fremtiden

• 23 April 2014

10 •

Helge J. Pedersen

Danmark

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Nettobalance

Bygge og anlæg

Service

Konjunkturbarometer

Fremstilling

Nettobalance

Den svage udvikling har især været forårsaget af den private indenlandske efterspørgsel

Danmark

Privatforbrug

Eksport

Import

Investeringer

Offentligt forbrug

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

08 09 10 11 12 13

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Udvikling siden finanskrisen (Indeks 2008K2=100)

11 • 23 April 2014

11 •

Helge J. Pedersen

Måske fordi vi har et stort løn problem.

Tyskland/Danmark

Source: Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, http://doku.iab.de/kurzber/2013/kb1513.pdf

12 • 23 April 2014

12 •

Helge J. Pedersen

Derfor er det vigtigt at følge produktivitetskommissionens hovedanbefalinger:

• Styrk konkurrenceevne, dynamik og internationalisering

• Styrk kvaliteten af uddannelserne og deres værdi for arbejdsmarkedet

• Skab gode rammer for nye løsninger og effektivitet i det offentlige

Danmark

13 • 23 April 2014

13 •

Helge J. Pedersen

Thank you!

Helge J. PedersenGlobal Chief Economist

Economic Research+45 3333 3126

helge.pedersen@nordea.com

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14 • 23 April 2014

14 •

Helge J. Pedersen