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Ocean Acidification the in Massachusetts Coastal Zone · 2019-07-06 · Gledhill et al. 2015,...
Transcript of Ocean Acidification the in Massachusetts Coastal Zone · 2019-07-06 · Gledhill et al. 2015,...
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Ocean Acidification the in
Massachusetts Coastal Zone
Jennie E. Rheuban
June 26, 2019
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Outline
Background about acidification
Open ocean acidification vs. coastal acidification
Acidification monitoring on Cape Cod Preindustrial
~280 ppm
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What happens when CO2 increases?CO2 CO3
2-
HCO3-Carbon Dioxide
Bicarbonate ion
Carbonate ion
CO2
HCO3-
H+
CO32-
pH
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Why do we care about acidification?
Ca + CO3 CaCO3 (solid)2-2+
Saturation State: = [Ca2+][CO32-] / Ksp
>1 saturated, <1 undersaturated
Feely et al. Nature 2005; Bednaršek Nature Geosci. 2012
Acidification affects the calcification process
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Kroecker
et al. Global
Change
Biology(2013)
positive effect
negative effect
Losers Winners
Who is affected by acidification?
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New England Shelf omega already fairly low
Gledhill et al. 2015, Oceanography
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Townsend et al. 2015, Journal of Marine Research
Physical oceanography of the region has a big impact
Fresher, less
buffering
Salty, more
buffering
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Coastal systems are more complicated
Doney et al. PNAS 2007; Doney Science 2010; Kelly et al. Science 2011
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Nutrient pollution leads to acidification
Aerobic respiration:
C6H12O6 + 6O2 6CO2+6H2O
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Freshwater sources can also cause low omega
Gledhill et al. 2015, Oceanography
Difference between wet and dry years
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Coastal/Estuarine Acidification
Biologically driven acidification in some cases
stronger signal than atmospheric
Biological in this case includes both natural and
perturbed conditions because of human excess
nutrient inputs
Some “coastal acidification” is natural but we have
enhanced those effects
Freshwater inputs important as well – especially if
low alkalinity
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A lot of New England species are sensitive to climate change
Hare et al. 2016,
PLoS One
>95% confidence
in impact
66-90%
confidence in
impact
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And MA is particularly vulnerable
Ekstrom et al.
2015, Nature
Climate Change
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Buzzards Bay
• Site of historical, long-term water quality monitoring by the
Buzzards Bay Coalition
• Began in 1992, and more than 200 stations are monitored
during summer months by volunteers
• Water quality around Buzzards Bay has been declining
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Purpose
Characterize seasonal and multi-year variations in
carbonate chemistry:
• Under critical management conditions - targeting
time periods when we might expect peak stress
• Across different estuary types – river vs.
groundwater fed
• Across a range of nitrogen loads and impairment
• Within-estuary variation
Can we separate biological variations from mixing
and dilution of seawater with freshwater?
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Buzzards Bay
• New sampling added:
• Carbonate chemistry and
nutrients monthly June 2015
– Sept 2017
From DIC and ALK bottle measurements,
we can calculate pH, pCO2, and saturation
state.
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Seasonal Patterns
Aragonite saturation state
<1
corrosive
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Buzzards Bay shellfish area
classification
Buzzards Bay National Estuary Program
<1
corrosive
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What causes the variation in saturation state we observe?
∆Ω = ∆Ω𝑇 + ∆Ω𝑆 + ∆Ω𝑚𝑖𝑥𝑖𝑛𝑔 + ∆Ω𝑏𝑖𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑦 + 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟Temperature Salinity Mixing with
freshwaterBiological
processes
∆Ω = Ω𝑜𝑏𝑠 − Ω𝑟𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒
<1
corrosive
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Dilution effects on saturation state
∆Ω = ∆Ω𝑇 + ∆Ω𝑆 + ∆Ω𝑚𝑖𝑥𝑖𝑛𝑔 + ∆Ω𝑏𝑖𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑦 + 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟
Saturation state
<1
corrosive
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Saturation state% O2
saturation
∆Ω = ∆Ω𝑇 + ∆Ω𝑆 + ∆Ω𝑚𝑖𝑥𝑖𝑛𝑔 + ∆Ω𝑏𝑖𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑦 + 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟
Biological effects on saturation state
<1
corrosive
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Biological effects on saturation state
Saturation state
∆Ω = ∆Ω𝑇 + ∆Ω𝑆 + ∆Ω𝑚𝑖𝑥𝑖𝑛𝑔 + ∆Ω𝑏𝑖𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑦 + 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟
Especially strong during the “growing season”
% O2
saturation
<1
corrosive
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How much of the variation in omega is from eutrophication?
∆Ω = ∆Ω𝑇 + ∆Ω𝑆 + ∆Ω𝑚𝑖𝑥𝑖𝑛𝑔 + ∆Ω𝑏𝑖𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑦 + 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟
Inner harbors
Outer harbors
Buzzards Bay
?
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Future loading scenarios
Threshold and No Anthropogenic Load TN
concentrations from MEP reports
<1
corrosive
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Conclusions
Eutrophication and relative freshwater inputs both
important in driving estuarine saturation state
variability
Critical shellfishing areas in estuarine waters often
experience saturation states less than 1 indicating
significant vulnerability
Framework could provide estimates of additional
benefits to attaining nitrogen loading management
targets
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Thanks to collaborators, funders, field help
Dan McCorkleScott DoneyRachel JakubaKelly Luis, Sheron Luk, Shanna Williamson, Michaela Fendrock, Will Oesterich
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DilutionDilution drives first order differences in carbonate chemistry we see across all embayments regardless of underlying water quality.
Dissolved inorganic carbonAlkalinity
∆Ω = ∆Ω𝑇 + ∆Ω𝑆 + ∆Ω𝑚𝑖𝑥𝑖𝑛𝑔 + ∆Ω𝑏𝑖𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑦 + 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟