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Occupational Compass - Sweden Tord Strannefors Jan Sundqvist Karin Berglind Swedish Public...
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Transcript of Occupational Compass - Sweden Tord Strannefors Jan Sundqvist Karin Berglind Swedish Public...
Occupational Compass
- Sweden
Tord Strannefors
Jan Sundqvist
Karin Berglind
Swedish Public Employment Service Department of Analysis
Occupational forecasts
• Short term forecasts – 1 year ahead
• Long term forecasts – outlook 5-10 years ahead
Rationale and objectives
• As a broker on the labour market it is crucialto have good labour market knowledge
• Thus one of the core objectives of the model is to enhance labour market knowledge at all levels of the PES organisation
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• A structured way of collecting and disseminating the knowledge that otherwise would have been under-utilised
Occupational tendency survey Other related sources
Shortage index for selected occupations
MAIN DATA SOURCES
Employer survey Expert views
Occupational surveyProcess and methods
- Covers about 200 occupationsa majority at ISCO 4-digit level, but many forecasts are made at a more specific level
- Periodicity: twice a year
- Based on the assessments made by PES front staff of their local labour market-Assessment of the balance between the demand for and supply of labour, -One assessment for today and for one year ahead
- From the results a shortage index is calculated
• To create the shortage index – Large surplus = value 1
– Surplus = value 2
– Balance = value 3
– Shortage = value 4
– Large shortage = value 5
• If all offices answer large surplus, the result in shortage index will be 1
The Occupational Tendency Survey
The Occupational Tendency Survey – Q1b
Occupations 1b. Estimation of the situation on the labour market for different occupations one year ahead
Large surplus
Surplus Balance ShortageLarge
shortage
SSYK Craft and related trades workers
Building frame and related workers
7121 Bricklayer 2 5 35 19 87122 Stonemason
7123 Carpenter/joiner
7124 Foundation-workers
Weighted shortage index
• Each answer is given a weight according to the number of employees in that occupation living in respective municipality.
• The weights for each occupation sum to 1 for the country
• For example, miners get a high weight in northern Sweden and a low weight in southern Sweden
• The scale classification in the shortage index
– Index > 4.0 large shortage – Very low competition for jobs
– Index 3.3-3.99 shortage – Low competition for jobs
– Index 2.9-3.29 balance – Balance
– Index 2.0-2.89 surplus – Fierce competition for jobs
– Index < 2.0 large surplus – Very fierce competition for jobs
The Occupational Tendency Survey
• Guided discussions at a local level with the front staff
• Quality check by regional analysts, and occupational analysts at country level
• Dialog with associations and labour unions, some examples:- Almega – employer and trade organisation for the Swedish service sector - LO, The Swedish Trade Union Confederation- Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions (SALAR)
Quality check of the tendency survey
Long term forecastinginformation sources
• Statistics is the basis, for example, population projections.
• Information from employers organisations and labour unions and other experts – structural changes
• Information from written reports and from other forecasters
• Difficult to ask about occupations in long terms by a questionnaire to employers – if so ask about structural changes for groups educated or of homogeny groups of occupations
Statistical information Demand of labour by occupation Changes in employment Occupational changers Retirements
Supply of labour by occupations Population projections Inflow of person into occupations Migration
Occupational Compass – a software instrument
• A service of PES in Sweden (internet); labour market situation and prospects for a broad selection of occupations
• Guidance Support for all jobseekers and for people facing educational choices.
• More effective matching process – shorter duration of vacancies and unemployment spells – higher production – higher economic growth in the country – higher GDP
Occupational compass, ideas when it was created• Creating a robust information system.
• Affect educational choices – primarily via good information.
• Target group was young people, but also job seekers, employment officers and profession counsellors.
• The product should be easy to use.
• Create a professional information plaza where all occupational information is available in an easy way.
Basic requirements
• Content must be of high quality
• Involve more employees at the head office.
• The product must contain a short and a long outlook – only a short-term outlook increase the risk that the result will be countercyclical.
– Even professions where there is usually a shortage of labour can get a increased unemployment during recession periods.
• A long term outlook is the essence of guidance for professionals and future
Dissemination of the results – The Occupational Compass
http://www.arbetsformedlingen.se/yrkeskompassen
Example: Concrete workers
Dissemination of the results – The Occupational Compass
These are actually the results from the Occupational Barometer, shown in colours and with a vocabulary adjusted to jobseekers.
Example: Concrete workers
Description of the occupation.
Working conditions, education requirements, interviews etc.
How the results are used – The Occupational Compass
• Occupational guidanceYoung people, such as school leavers and students but also other job seekers
PES staff working with occupational guidance
Counsellors in schools and universities
• Meeting between employment officers and job seekersFirst dialogue, starting the process to make an individual action plan, discussion on job opportunities, etc.
• Available to everyone
Informing practice
PES Front staff
Guidance practitioners for elementary and secondary school
Job seekers in contact with PES
I’m using the Occupational Compass at least a couple of times per month.
61% 60% 19%
Feel that it is important to have access to this kind of information in my work. (“I Agree” on a scale 1-10)
8,5 8,3 -