Julie Calkins & Fred Hattermann

& Future Danube Team

Oasis being used in

international/ community

projects

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2

Why applying OASIS LMF in international projects?

• There is a growing demand for user oriented climate services(„Climate services ensure that the best available climate science is effectively communicated with agriculture, water, health, and other sectors (-> insurance!), to develop and evaluate adaptation strategies. Easily accessible, timely, and decision-relevant scientific information ….”)

• Huge (public and private) funds are currently allocated tobetter understand climate (and weather) related hazardsand risks

• Needed is an open source standard for risk assessment that can be used by different sectors

• OASIS LMF provides “tools and utility to all” (-> easy to apply software, user support, workshops, community etc.)

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EU Climate-KIC funded• Open access cat-modelling driving adaptation to

enable resilience in an uncertain future

• Set-up of the flood risk model for the Danubestarted in 2016

• Funding for the Danube until end of 2017

EU Horizon 2020 funded• Project duration Mai 2017 – April 2020

• Multi-hazard and multi-risk

• Strong cooperation with the OASIS consortium

• OASIS LMF and Genillard & Co are partners

• Several insurers committed their interest

• Climate service call

Two examples

Programme key elementsWorking with OASIS since 2011, ‘Flagship’ status in 2017

How CKIC sees itself - the program acts as a catalyst to accelerate new market

development - attract supply, nurture demand, and build the end-user community for

both climate risk mitigation and adaptation

Support key entities that help set standards and provide the marketplace

Demonstrate use of climate risk data and models beyond insurance

Support enabling activity: capacity-building and financial innovation

13 innovation projects and a core community of 30 organisations incl NGOs, insurers,

research/thinktank, City/local, and start-ups in viz and analytical tools

Connections with global policy piece, development/DRR actors and CoEs, EC/EUCPM,

WB, UN

Standards and marketplace Set Standards: Further develop and promote the Oasis Loss

Modelling Framework (LMF, to improve pricing of climate risk and

open up the ‘black box’ of catastrophe modelling.

Provide a Market place: There is a need for a collaborative market

exchange to drive the global market by linking demand for risk

analytics, with the supply of open climate risk data and

catastrophe models, tools and services. The OASIS Hub is the most

prominent example.

Building Capacity and Capability: Translation and implementation,

developing tools and services to aid standardisation and

interoperability.

http://www.oasislmf.org/

https://www.oasishub.co.uk/

Climate Risk Information – EcosystemThe Vision: An open, global, and transparent marketplace for climate risk information

Analytical tools

Marketplace Biz development

Data & models marketing

Supply DemandMarket Place

Academia/Research

OASIS LMF(Market “standard

setter”)

Service Provider

Service Provider

SMEs

(Re)insurance

(Re)Insurance

Infrastructure, Agric, Industry

Public authorities

Health sector –public & private

MOOC providers

E-Marketplace(OASIS Hub)

Public institutions and donors

Supply chains

Climate-KIC (and other funders / multipliers) as convener, enabler and champion

Modelling Companies

Other consultants /services

Crowd sourcing

2017-19: Demonstrate the value of climate risk dataIn end-user investment, insurance &/or planning decisions

Pluvial flooding risk assessment and adaptation for cities with Vjele, Gothenburg, Paris and responding to SCOR needs

Using risk models to improve loss calculations and adaptation planning, with DCLG, health systems actors, EurapCo

Cities

Health

and cross-cutting effort to foster risk transfer methods and lower the

barriers to engagement

Capacity-BuildingTools for increasing use and usefulness and usability, training for researchers, small insurers cities and utilities

New Financial Products

Sovereign credit rating, city risk pooling facility

Multi-hazard tailored risk models for agric insurance in CEE and E Africa, matching needs re/ins SwissRe, ACHMEA, WTW

Agric

Climate Risk Information flagship program

We are:

An active community of partners in supply/demand around Oasis family

Pulling in public funders and research model developers

Looking to extend the impact of risk modelling tools to new

users/customers

Growing our portfolio of projects (upcoming call!)

For more information, please get in touch: Julie.Calkins@climate-kic.org

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H2020 Insurance – project background

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Future Danube Model: climate service offer

• Better understanding of hazard and risk under current conditions and in areas which are currently model underdeveloped

• Better understanding of hazard and risk under future conditions

• End-user driven: Cooperation with the private (insurance) and public sectors

Why the Danube?

• 19 Countries and 83 million people, 4 capitals

• 2002 floods in Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Moldova, Switzerland, and Slovakia, causing total damages of 16,5 billion Euro (3,400 billion insured losses) and 39 fatalities

• 2013 floods in Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Switzerland, causing damages of 12,600 billion Euro (3,100 billion insured losses), and 25 fatalities (NatCatSERVICE, Munich RE)

Future Danube: Model suite

Imperial College

PIK Potsdam

GFZ Potsdam

DTU Kopenhagen

PIK Potsdam

& Additional partners:

• OASIS LMF

• Genillard & Co

• Pannon Pro

• Budapest Water Works

• Insurance sector

Continuous simulation model of flood risk

chain

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Eco-hydrol. Model: SWIM

Flood Loss Model: direct damage to

res. buildings

River Network Routing:

1D Channel Network Model

Hinterland Inundation:

2D Raster-Based Inertia Model

Bankfull discharge threshold value

dike over-

topping

discharge

Weather Generator

Meteorological

fields

Routed flow

flood maps of

max. water

levels

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Modelling concept

Big data -> condensed information

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240,000 years of daily climate and hydrological data~13,0000 river sections ~200,000 spatial units

Robust risk information

Future Danube: Model suite

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JJA precipitation for Upper Danube basin

X – 30 years of

CORDEX data

X – 10,000

years of IMAGE

data

Input: Realistic daily precipitation generated by weather

module (many more events than observed -> rare (extreme) events)

The largest observed

event

These extreme events

were never observed,

but are possible and

cause the huge

damages

S. Hardwick, Imperial College

Future Danube: Model suite *

River sections and subbasins upper part of the

Danube until Budapest

Subbasins 13,778

Elements 186,296

PIK Potsdam

PIK Potsdam

Change in recurrence of 100 year flood

Agreement in projections

PIK Potsdam

Change in flood frequency under CC *

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increase in frequency

increase in intensity(water levels)

These statistics are there for each of the ~13,0000 river sections

PIK Potsdam

Change in flood frequency under CC

23PIK Potsdam

Spatial change in hydrology

24PIK Potsdam

Future Danube: Model suite *

Loss estimation

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Spatially detailed or aggregated risk assessment

T0: EUR 744 Mio

T1: EUR 641 Mio

T2: EUR 281 Mio

Partner: GFZ Potsdam

Pluvial flooding (example: Vienna)

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Spatially detailed or aggregated risk assessment

T0: EUR 744 Mio

T1: EUR 641 Mio

T2: EUR 281 Mio

Partner: Danish Technical University

Link to OASIS LMF

The resulting flood event set and vulnerability functions provide flood hazard footprints and the vulnerability components as input to the Oasis Loss Model Framework (LMF).

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Event

Hazard Vulnerability

Damage Bin Dictionary

Vulnerability Dictionary

Intensity Bin

Dictionary

Exposure

(Item)

Area Peril Dictionary

Take home messages

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• Climate change impacts on large-scale hazard and risk

• Modular approach for either applying the entire suite to get consistent multi-peril estimates or to plug-in external modules or data within OASIS LMF

• Open GIS technologies for visualization of results

• Probabilistic approach as improved basis for informed decision making under uncertainty

• Tailor made models focusing on user needs and sites

Further information: www.oasisdanube.eu

Many thanks!

Contacts:

Julie Calkins, Climate-KIC

julie.calkins@climate-kic.org

Fred Hattermann, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

hattermann@pik-potsdam.de

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Increasing robustness of risk

information

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Uncertainty bounds (in blue)

before and after -> decreasing

uncertainty

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