Nyssa Irc Bits Presentation

download Nyssa Irc Bits Presentation

of 19

Transcript of Nyssa Irc Bits Presentation

  • 7/31/2019 Nyssa Irc Bits Presentation

    1/19

    Bitstream Inc. (NASDAQ:BITS)

    NYSSA IRC Team D

    Feb 5, 2010

  • 7/31/2019 Nyssa Irc Bits Presentation

    2/19

    AgendaExecutive Summary

    Company Overview

    Investment ThesisValuation Methodology

    Q&A

    BitstreamCLEAR Fonts, BLURRY Future.

  • 7/31/2019 Nyssa Irc Bits Presentation

    3/19

    Recommendation: SELL12-month price target: $5.18 (-40%)

    1) Core business erosion over next 3-5 years

    2) New Mobile Browsing Venture is likely to disappoint

    3) Sky high multiples are headed for a fall

    Blurry

    BitstreamCLEAR Fonts, BLURRY Future.

  • 7/31/2019 Nyssa Irc Bits Presentation

    4/19

    Agenda

    Executive Summary

    Company Overview

    Investment ThesisValuation Methodology

    Q&A

    BitstreamCLEAR Fonts, BLURRY Future.

  • 7/31/2019 Nyssa Irc Bits Presentation

    5/19

    BITS AND PIECES

    BitstreamCLEAR Fonts, BLURRY Future.Source: Company Documents and Student Analysis.

  • 7/31/2019 Nyssa Irc Bits Presentation

    6/19

    AgendaExecutive Summary

    Company Overview

    Investment ThesisValuation Methodology

    Q&A

    BitstreamCLEAR Fonts, BLURRY Future.

  • 7/31/2019 Nyssa Irc Bits Presentation

    7/19

    Investment Thesis

    I. Core businesses losing market share

    Products lack competitiveness

    Customers moving toward proprietary

    products

    Absence of pricing power

    BitstreamCLEAR Fonts, BLURRY Future.

  • 7/31/2019 Nyssa Irc Bits Presentation

    8/19

    Investment Thesis Continues

    II. Mobile browser likely to disappoint

    Late entrant into an over-crowded market

    Small and inactive user base

    On the losing end of a

    technology arms race

    42 M450

    3 M 27

    Opera BITS

    Page Per MonthNumber of Download

    BitstreamCLEAR Fonts, BLURRY Future.

    Source: Company Documents and Student Analysis.

  • 7/31/2019 Nyssa Irc Bits Presentation

    9/19

    Projected Revenue Mix

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    FY 09E FY 10E FY 11E FY 12E FY 13E FY 14E

    FONT TECH FONTS PUBLISHING TECH MOBILE TECH

    BitstreamCLEAR Fonts, BLURRY Future.

    Investment Thesis

    Source: Company Documents and Student Analysis.

  • 7/31/2019 Nyssa Irc Bits Presentation

    10/19

    -150%

    -100%

    -50%

    0%

    50%

    100%

    FY 09E FY 10E FY 11E FY 12E FY 13E FY 14E

    FONT TECH FONTS PUBLISHING TECH MOBILE TECH

    Projected Operating Income Mix

    BitstreamCLEAR Fonts, BLURRY Future.

    Investment Thesis

    Source: Company Documents and Student Analysis.

  • 7/31/2019 Nyssa Irc Bits Presentation

    11/19

    III. High price due for a fall

    Stock up over 50% in ~90 days since launch ofmobile browser

    Yet fundamentalsremain unchanged

    EBITDA MultipleSkyrocketed from 13.5xto 22.0x

    $4

    $5

    $6

    $7

    $8

    $9

    J-09 A-09 J-09 O-09 J-10

    BITS Price

    New Mobile

    Browser launch

    22.0x

    13.5x

    BitstreamCLEAR Fonts, BLURRY Future.

    Investment Thesis

    Source: Company Documents and Student Analysis.

  • 7/31/2019 Nyssa Irc Bits Presentation

    12/19

    AgendaExecutive Summary

    Company Overview

    Investment ThesisValuation Methodology

    Q&A

    BitstreamCLEAR Fonts, BLURRY Future.

  • 7/31/2019 Nyssa Irc Bits Presentation

    13/19

    2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E

    EV/EBITDA BITS Peer Average

    BITS is trading at a premium to peers

    Source: Company Documents and Student Analysis.

    BitstreamCLEAR Fonts, BLURRY Future.

    Valuation Methodology

  • 7/31/2019 Nyssa Irc Bits Presentation

    14/19

    -8%

    -6%

    -4%

    -2%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%10%

    12%

    14%

    2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E

    YOY Revenue Growth BITS Peer Average

    BITS is trailing in Revenue Growth

    Valuation Methodology

    Source: Company Documents and Student Analysis.

    BitstreamCLEAR Fonts, BLURRY Future.

  • 7/31/2019 Nyssa Irc Bits Presentation

    15/19

    2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E

    EBITDA Margin BITS Peer Average

    BITS EBITDA Margins are below Peer Average

    BitstreamCLEAR Fonts, BLURRY Future.

    Source: Company Documents and Student Analysis.

    Valuation Methodology

  • 7/31/2019 Nyssa Irc Bits Presentation

    16/19

    Discounted Cash Flow Valuation for Bitstream

    Dollars in thousands, except per share

    FY 09E FY 10E FY 11E FY 12E FY 13E FY 14E

    Free Cash Flow to the Firm 1,257$ 2,021$ 2,054$ 2,020$ 2,267$ 2,431$

    WACC @ 10 .53% 0.905 0.819 0.741 0.670Perpetuity Growth 4.5%

    Terminal Value @ FY 14E 42,116

    Enterprise Value 35,036

    Less: Long-Term Debt 0Add: Non-Operating Assets 17,431

    Equity Value 52,467

    DCF Value Per Share $5.12

    Projected Fiscal Years

    BitstreamCLEAR Fonts, BLURRY Future.

    Source: Company Documents and Student Analysis.

    Valuation Methodology

  • 7/31/2019 Nyssa Irc Bits Presentation

    17/19

    Valuation Summary

    BitstreamCLEAR Fonts, BLURRY Future.

    Source: Company Documents and Student Analysis.

    Valuation Methodology

  • 7/31/2019 Nyssa Irc Bits Presentation

    18/19

    Risks to our recommendation

    External factors:

    Faster than expectedeconomic recovery

    Weaker dollar

    Market inefficiency

    Takeover risk

    Internal factors:

    Improved operationefficiency

    Signing new largecontract

    Technology innovation

    Stock buy back ordividends

    BitstreamCLEAR Fonts, BLURRY Future.

  • 7/31/2019 Nyssa Irc Bits Presentation

    19/19

    AgendaPresentation Summary

    Company Overview

    Recommendation and SupportValuation Methodology

    Q&A

    Bitstream CLEAR Fonts BLURRY Future