NUOPC IOC Status Report to COPC

November 16, 2010

Allan DarlingDeputy Director, NCEP Central OperationsNOAA NWS NCEPAllan.Darling@noaa.gov

ID Task Name

1 Augment TOC Infrastructure

3 TOC Augmentati on Compl ete

4 Implement additional members to 16 days

11 Addit ional members to 16 days Accepted

12 Transition to GRIB2

21 GRIB2 and Bundle Accepted

22 Implement additional parameters

29 Ful l delivery of FNMOC members

30 Integrate FNMOC members

37 EMC CCB - Integration Completed and Accepted

38 Transition to operations

48 Implementati on

100%

7/6

100%

6/15

100%

7/20

100%

8/6

100%

10/19

21%

1/11

F T S W S T M F T S W S T M FMay 2, '10 Jun 13, '10 Jul 25, '10 Sep 5, '10 Oct 17, '10 Nov 28, '10 Jan 9, '11

NUOPC IOC-1 / NAEFS

PM: Fred Toepfer

Objective

G

Key Issues/Risks/Mitigation

Risk: Schedule has slipped due to effect of required maintenance on availability of development system. Completion of external evaluation the week of 20 December pushes project completion to the first possible post-holiday implementation date of 11 January 2011.

Mitigation: None

ScheduleRequirement: Combine the NOAA and Navy ensemble members as the National Ensemble. Combine this National Ensemble and the CMC ensemble in the NAEFS. With the addition of FNMOC, increase NAEFS members from 126 to 166, forecasts to 16 days, and standardize variables.

Goal: Enhance the multi-model ensemble system to produce bias corrected ensemble variables and probabilistic products for use by the OperationalCenters.

Resources

November 10, 2010

FNMOCDr. M. SestakMr. J. ErtlNWS Telecommunication Operations CenterMr. R. BungeNCEP Environmental Modeling CenterDr. W. LapentaMr. Y. ZhuNCEP Central OperationsMr. A. DarlingMr. D. StarostaMs. R. CosgroveMs. M. Mainelli

GY

Y

Implementation slip from 22 Dec to 11 Jan

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NUOPC IOC – Task StatusDATMS-U upgrade (JAG/CCM) - CompleteInfrastructure augmentation (TOC) - CompleteEnsemble delivery (FNMOC) - Complete

GRIB2384H72 variablesNew file structure for communication and processing efficiency

Routine delivery (FNMOC, TOC, NCEP) - CompleteEnsemble integration (NCEP, FNMOC) - CompleteTransition to operations (NCEP) – In process

NUOPC IOC – Planned ImplementationAdding FNMOC ensemble to NAEFS FNMOC 20+(1) members, out to 16 days, twice per day Bias correction based on its FNMOC analysis Four variables to include NCEP, CMC and FNMOC ensembles

2 meter temperature 10 meter zonal wind 10 meter meridional wind 850mb temperature

Expected Benefits Multi-model, multi-center ensembles Improve the forecast skill for near surface variable

Continued evaluation of the benefits derived from the addition of the FNMOC ensemble data is required

Scope change may be required if pre-implementation testing reveals negative impact on skill for any of the four variables listed above

5

NUOPC – Next StepsDevelop UEO Implementation and Management Plan

Dissemination requirements12-24 month work planBackup requirementsDevelopment coordination

Rationalize NUOPC and NAEFS requirements

Establish NUOPC / NAEFS coordination process

Potential supporting infrastructure upgradesFNMOC interface system upgradesNext Generation COPC Enterprise Network (AI 2008-2.11)

Action Item – Management AgreementCOPC Action Item 2010-1.4: Develop and submit to COPC for

approval a Unified Multi-Model Ensemble Operations annex to the DAPE MOA to address NAEFS and/or NUOPC operations management, alignment of performance requirements, change management, and data dissemination.

Priority: HAdvocate: WG/CSAB, JAG/OCM, and JAG/CCMSuspense: October 2010

CSAB is evaluating whether an appendix to the DAPE MOA is appropriate or if a new MOA is required to accomplish this agreement.

Management details regarding performance and alignment with change are still under evaluation.

CSAB recommends this action be kept open.

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