2011 I Issue 3 I 1

The Upside of the Bear Run

“Why Investors Should Smile at the Storm”

The Bear Run Mpesa Going Rogue Bearish Market

Issue 3 | 2011 Display until Jan 15 2012

STANDARD CHARTERED BANK Featured on SINCE I GOT LISTED

I 2011 I Issue 32

2011 I Issue 3 I 3

Publisher

EXCHANGE TEAMChief EditorCarol Karuguckarugu@nse.co.ke

Sub EditorSusan Kabuiskabui@nse.co.ke

French TranslationEmma Wenaniwenani.emma@gmail.com

The Exchange Committee MembersJoseph Kitamirike (Chairman, CEO - USE)Peter Mwangi (Member, CEO - NSE) Donald Ouma (Member - NSE) Harriet Kiwanuka (Member - USE)Emanuel Nyalali (Member - DSE) Celestin Rwabukumba (Member - ROTC)

ContributorsEvelyne OgutuDr Issac RutenbergMoses Munene Kinoti GatobuHanderson MwademboCathy Mputhia Betty MakokhaSammy K. WaweruNicholas J. GitongaMaryanne MuchuiPeter Okoed

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The Bear Run The upside of the Bear Run

East Africa Community

Going Rogue Attacking the Bear

Bearish MarketThe Book ReviewSince i got Listed

Mpesa

171820

2527293134

22

A challenge presenting Opportunities

Why Investors should smile at the storm

The Blue print of the Success

Toxic Banking Scandles and Fraud

The Last Pen 38 Economic Lessons from Abroad

Crazy or Genius

Think like Jim creamer

Richard Thaler

Standard Chartered

The one thing you didnt know

Contents

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Chairman’s Note

Chairman’s Note

2011 I Issue 3 I 7

In Tanzania, the Bank of Tanzania (BOT) raised the weighted average yield on the country’s 91-day Treasury-bill by 300 basis points (bps) to 8.82% at the weekly auction.

Interest rates are expected to rise in line with rising inflation, which hit 14% in August.On October 11, 2011, the Bank of Uganda hiked interest rates by 400 bps to 20% after inflation rose to 28.3% in September. At a treasury bill auction the following day, yields on the 91- and 182-day bills rose to 21.4% and 22.5%, from 17.4% and 18.5% at the last auction. The yield on the 364-day instrument increased to 24.1% from 19.8%. The Bank of Uganda reported that the current double digit inflation will start declining next year due to anticipated falling food prices in the fourth quarter of 2011 and the first half of 2012. The announcement comes on the back of Fitch’s B stable rating from the previous B+, which sustains confidence in Uganda’s economic fundamentals despite grappling with some of the country’s worst economic indicators in decades. We anticipate that the current situation is temporary.

According to the authors of second chapter of the April 2011 IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, post the global financial crisis, interest in sub Saharan Africa’s (SSA) frontier markets (FMs) has resumed, as supported by anecdotal evidence and interest from investment banks. The authors go on to say that the interest reflected the strong economic performance of the FMs and a global economy awash with liquidity. Under their definition of FMs for SSA, the authors of this chapter included Angola, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. On a number of indicators of institutional quality, growth prospects, and macroeconomic outcomes, the region’s FMs outperformed other groups – including FMs in other regions, other sub-Saharan African countries, and even select emerging market countries. As the contribution of official financing continues to diminish, improvements in many of these areas could help the members of the East African Community attract private sources of financing for investment and growth. It is well known that infrastructure investments have a powerful role in linking countries and regions and enhancing cross-border trade. In the capital markets sphere, the East African Securities Exchanges Association (EASEA) can play a meaningful role.

In anticipation of improvements in macroeconomic environment, and increased demand for private capital, now and not later is the time for the members of EASEA to invest in their infrastructure. The Capital Markets Authority of Kenya has announced that Kenya’s

futures market is expected to launch in the second half of 2012. The futures market will allow investors to buy and sell asset contracts for delivery in the future, which could help limit wide swings in prices caused by oversupply or shortages that usually hit the oil and grain sectors. The Uganda Securities Exchange is in the process of automating its trading systems. These initiatives while very important should be complimented by the harmonization of regulatory and operational standards amongst the members of the Association; the standards must be world-class. I would intimate that the same applies to investors and companies who are bullish on the medium to long term prospects of our Community. Baron Rothschild, an 18th -century British nobleman and member of the Rothschild banking family, is credited with saying that “the time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.” He should know. Rothschild made a fortune buying in the panic that followed the Battle of Waterloo against Napoleon. But that’s not the whole story. The original quote is believed to be “Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.”

This is contrarian investing at its heart--the strongly held belief that the worse things seem in the market, the better the opportunities are for profit. Most people only want winners in their portfolios, but as Warren Buffett warned, “You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus.” In other words, if everyone agrees with your investment decision, it’s probably not a good one. If one is bullish on the long term growth prospects for the region and given valuations are at reasonable discounts (According to the African Alliance Securities Africa Weekly dated October 21 2011, dollar returns on the headline indices are -43.26%, -39.76% and -1.36% for the Uganda Securities Exchange, Nairobi Securities Exchange and the Dar-es-Salaam Stock Exchange respectively), one should be able to find good assets selling at a discount. The upside of the bear market is that the market is ripe with opportunity. “Smile at the Storm, it shall come to pass.”

JOSEPH S. KITAMIRIKECHAIRMAN

EAST AFRICAN SECURITIES EXCHANGES ASSOCIATION

The theme of this quarter’s issue is “The Upside of the Bear Run. Why Investors Should Smile at the Storm.” Recent economic news has been dismal. The week ending October 21 2011, saw the Kenya Shilling close at Kshs.102 to the United States Dollar (USD.). The Kenya Treasury cut in half (to 10% of core capital) the amount of foreign currency the banks are allowed to keep, forcing a release of dollars into the market; earlier in the week it hit a new record low of Kshs.107 to the USD. In a bid to reduce government borrowing, and improve liquidity, the Kenya Treasury is also looking to cut government spending.

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The year 2011 is an exceptional year! Many significant historical events have occurred in such a short time it is as if time were compressed. Change seems to be occurring in enormous leaps and on all fronts; political, economic and social.

Focusing on the silver Lining

Nicholas J. Gitonga

Focusing on the Silver Lining

and cause great havoc. By the time it was over, property worth £200 million had been destroyed and 5 people were dead.

OCCUPY WALL STREET Keeping with the uprisings, what began as small demonstrations to protest the excesses of Wall Street has now spun off into global protests against capitalism in over one thousand cities and on four continents. The ‘Occupy Wall Street’ protests have been replicated in London as the ‘Occupy London Stock Exchange’ and in other major capitals of the World. The protests are now unified into one movement christened the ‘Occupy Together’ movement. Thousands of protestors are demonstrating against the inequalities created by capitalism and questioning the structural efficiency of capitalism in allocating resources and rewarding the most enterprising. According to the protestors, statistics prove that in a capitalist system, 1% of the population inevitably ends up with the lion’s share of resources and lords over the other 99%. According to the Wikipedia page of Occupy Wall Street, the protests were inspired by the Arab Spring. Again, social media such as twitter and face book are the

extended to Algeria, Jordan, Bahrain, Syria and to a lesser extent, Lebanon, Oman, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Morocco. In Libya, the rebellion morphed into a full civil war that hounded out the self declared ‘King of Kings’ and President of the Country, Late Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, and ended in his brutal killings on October 20th. The stage was set and context crystal clear…2011 was going to be no ordinary year!

ENGLAND RIOTS What followed took many by surprise. A society supposedly among the most civilized and stable in the world was rocked by violent protests, looting and wanton destruction of property. Unemployed and frustrated youth in London and other cities across England rose up one morning and began on a looting spree that lasted about 5 days and caused massive damage to property. The riots were supposedly ignited by the fatal shooting of a young black youth by the name Mark Duggan by the Police on 4th August 2011. Demonstrations assembled to protest his killing soon turned into a looting spree. The looters used social media to assemble in a flash

THE ARAB SPRING The year began with the event which has now been dubbed as the ‘Arab Spring’. An explosion of tensions that had built up in many North African and Middle East nations over poor governance and suppression was set off in a real butterfly effect when a female municipal officer by the name Faida Hamdi slapped and spat on a street vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi in the small town of Sidi Bouazid, in Tunisia. Hamdi also allegedly insulted Bouazizi’s deceased father and confiscated the young man’s weighing scales and wares. Bouazizi was so incensed by these actions that he took an action befitting a biblical story. He bought a can of petrol, doused and set himself ablaze in front of the town Governor’s office in an ultimate form of protest.Bouazizi’s act of self immolation on 17th December 2010 and his subsequent death on 4th January 2011 aged only 26 years sparked off a revolution in Tunisia that overthrew the Country’s long serving ruler, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. The revolution crossed over into Egypt and toppled President Hosni Mubarak’s dictatorial regime in a formidable show of might by the citizenry. The uprisings

2011 I Issue 3 I 9

medium of choice in coordinating the activities of the protestors.

DEPARTED The world has also lost several key figures in 2011. Osama bin Laden, the man who headed world terror was killed in Pakistan on 2nd May 2011 by an elite team of American Navy SEALs, the ‘SEAL Team Six’. Osama’s terror network, the ‘Al-Qaeda’, stoked fear to the levels of paranoia around the world following several bombings in various capital cities in the late 1990s and the 9/11 attack on the Unites States of America. Terror activities permanently raised the cost of doing business and made the world a less trusting and comfortable place.

At the other extreme of the likeable scale, two of the World’s most visionary leaders also passed on. Professor Wangari Mathaai and Mr. Steve Jobs of Apple Computers both made a profound positive contribution to humankind Nobel Laurent Professor Mathaai, an immensely intelligent and humble lady who fought to keep us from destroying ourselves and nature passed on aged 71 years. She dedicated her life to the protection of the environment, uplifting of women and defending of human rights. Professor Maathai also stood for the truth and in her own words; she did the right thing as it was the only right thing to do. Steve Jobs, the co-founder of Apple Computers and the man who introduced us to the future numerous times passed on aged 56. Steve Jobs operated at the frontier of time, introducing us to products from the future that redefined the way we communicate and work. He helped us take leaps towards tomorrow’s technologies and made sure we got acquainted with the technology in way that we could understand and appreciate it.

EUROZONE DEBT CRISIS On the economic front, dark clouds have assembled over the global economy with the focal point being in Europe. The Euro zone debt crisis continues to dominate global debate with fears that a default by a sovereign is likely from one of the highly indebted European nations Greece. The prospect of such a default and the possible knock on effects on other European nations and the global economy is quite alarming. In the event that it occurs, global trade and financial markets will be in for possibly one of the worst recessions since the Great Depression. Trade would drastically slow down for most nations, large and small; institutions would become bankrupt; jobs would be lost; and most asset classes would depreciate in value. Few nations will be spared the contagion. The economic downturn together with the spreading global civil unrests would make quite a volatile recipe.

EAST AFRICAN MARKETSCloser home, several East African countries and a number of other African nations have been going through a rough patch economically attributed to both domestic and external causes. Rampant inflation and volatile exchange rates have been the order in the second half of 2011. The result has been sharp increases in interest rates to rein in inflation and stabilize the domestic currencies. For instance, in November 2011, the Central Bank of Uganda raised its benchmark interest rate to 23% to rein inflation that was at its highest point in 18 years and to curb the slump of the Uganda Shilling. Kenya followed suit in November 2011 raising its benchmark interest rate to 16.5% for similar reasons. The expected net effect of the interest rate hikes and other measures being taken by the central banks to reduce money supply will be a slowdown in economic growth. Commercial loans will become expensive depriving businesses and individuals funds for investment and consumption. Hopefully, the export sectors will have taken advantage of the depreciated domestic currencies

and foreign currency inflows attracted by the high interest rates will stabilize the currencies. Securities markets which are quick to provide an accurate pulse of the economic situation have been on a steady decline since the beginning of the year and the decline has accelerated in the second half in Kenya and Uganda. The same case applies to the Nigerian securities market. Others major securities markets in Africa continue to exhibit volatility and decline as well.

THE SILVER LININGWith the cloud of gloom painted above, you would expect me to turn around and claim that it will all be over soon, not so. In all honesty, the near term global and domestic economic outlook remain rather bleak. The silver lining then lies in understanding this context and taking positions to emerge from it victorious. For those who have studied history and observed the great investors, they will know that it is in such times that the true investor thrives. When fear pervades society and market sentiment is low, it is game time for the investor.

The savvy or seasoned investor gradually accumulates once expensive assets at rock bottom prices and waits patiently for the economy to turn around. The popular Motley Fool website advises that while others panic and sell, it is time to review your watch list with a box of tissues nearby to help you contain your drooling. In other words, market recessions create rare opportunities to acquire stocks at incredible bargain prices. The investor should in general focus on key fundamentals of their prospective investments, such as whether the business is properly governed and whether it has great products and brands to weather the tough times. The investor also considers how exposed the company, its industry and its markets are to the economic downturn. Yet another worthwhile consideration is the dividend payout of the company as this provides interim returns to the investor as they wait for the share price appreciation. Satisfied that the fundamentals of a business are intact, the investor makes a calculated investment and holds on to it awaiting the improvement of the economy. As the good times roll in and all and sundry rush to acquire assets at rising prices, the investor realizes the value of their investment and receives a bumper harvest of capital gains. This is the investor’s sweet reward for timely investment and patience. As the masses chase the rising prices, it is time for the investor to move on to other sectors of the economy or wait for the next dreary season to set in, to do it all over again. The conclusion - keep focused on the silver lining!

As the good times roll in and all and sundry rush to acquire assets at rising prices, the investor realizes the value of their investment and receives a bumper harvest of capital gains.

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With a decline in demand for equities and a declining index the bear attack is well underway in the market. Being

attacked by a bear in the wild is undoubtedly something you could have bragging rights to friend and foe for a lifetime, but experiencing a bear market is part of the rollercoaster ride of the Stock market. Zoologists in the Americas and Asia, where bears are found, say that it is more likely to be struck by lightning than be mauled by a bear. Nonetheless occasional run-ins with a bear in the wild are inevitable - just as going through a bear run at the stock market due to the state of the economy right now, rising inflation, a weakening shilling, high fuel and electricity charges, rising interest rates, a widening budget deficit and a bear run at the stock Exchange the prevailing feeling right now amongst many investors is fear coupled with apprehension on what will happen next. These are much like the emotions that bear attack survivors are said to encounter when they meet a bear face to face. One

of the worst possible reactions when you meet a bear, zoologists say, is to run and hide. The same advice can be applied when an investor is in the thick of a bear market. In the current economic situation, most people believe that times are going to be tough and no investment is secure. Many investors will eliminate risk all together or become greatly risk averse. As an investor you need to bear (no pun intended) in mind that the world over, economies go through the different stages in The Economic Cycle ranging from boom periods to bust periods.

The essence of the Economic Cycles theory is the rotational nature of economic circumstances. Thus, at some point in the future fortunes will turn. Fortune favors the bold. Those who will profit from the turn of the tide will be the audacious investors who will make the decision to invest in the market now and hold out till the storm dies down. Fearful times like the current one present a perfect opportunity to make calculated bets.In 1986, Warren Buffet wrote in the Berkshire Hathaway Chairman’s Letter “we simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful”. If you go by this seasoned investors advice you should be voraciously buying

in the market. This is the investing style of Contrarians in a downward market. A contrarian investor is inclined not to back the conventional trends – not follow the standard perceptions of the stock market – thus while other investors are offloading their investments contrarian investors buy. Contrarians believe that if all the other investors analyze a stock and realize it is undervalued, based on its fundamentals they would have already bought it but if nobody is interested in a particular investment it could have overlooked qualities not reflected in its price and hence be cheap or a good buy. However, a drop in prices is not a signal for a contrarian investor to buy.

Contrarian investors also consider aspects of value investing. While the value investor will seek mispriced investments and buys those that appear undervalued by using metrics such as P/E ratio and Book value, the contrarian investor will, in addition to this, also consider “market sentiment” regarding the stock. Thus the investor will analyze coverage of the stock, trading volume and commentaries about the company. There are a few ways to cope with a bear market, which are similar to what researchers advise if you are accosted by a Bear in the wild. The survival techniques advised depend on the species of bear you encounter but they have a common thread - Keep your cool and avoid any sudden movement. They say if you unexpectedly stumble upon a bear, the bear will be as startled to see you as you will be to see it. The worst thing to do is panic. The same principle applies to bear markets. Investing decisions made in panic mode will have as disastrous consequences as trying to outrun a hungry and startled bear. Remember to stay calm, that way you will make rational decisions on your next move. So the first rule in a bear market. Remain calm and collected. Zoologists further advise that it is much better to defend yourself against the smaller bear species such as the black bear as opposed to ‘playing Dead ‘.

This species being smaller and faster than other species of bears, prefer to flee rather than fight. Thus unless you’re physically unable, it’s often better to defend yourself against a black bear than to curl up on the ground. Further, if you end up at close range with this kind of bear, you should punch or kick the bears nose and sensitive areas where you are most likely to get an immediate reaction. Do whatever is needed to scare it away. Similarly in a bear market you should take action. The actions include a Buy and Hold strategy. Recall that stocks that are

Crazy or GeniusAttacking A Bear

How the Bear market got its name is a mystery. One plausible explanation is derived from the way in which Bears attack their prey or opponents. Bears will swipe down as opposed to Bulls that thrust their horns up in the air when preparing for an attack.

Attacking A Bear: Crazy or Genius?

By Maryanne Muchui

2011 I Issue 3 I 11

under attack at the moment are likely to rally once the market turns. This will be stock of a company with a record of growth, good profitability and strong export sales. It will also have a leading position in its market niche and net cash on the balance sheet. It will be a company that is aggressive in innovation, steadily seeks for new markets and reinvests in new products and services. Warren Buffet and his Mexican counterpart Carlos Slim understand this investing style and use their cash reserves to buy in an economic slump. Buffet’s strategy for coping with a down market is to approach it as an opportunity to buy good companies at reasonable prices. His investment policy is based on his belief that, ”most businesses are not worth what they are selling for, but on rare occasions the wonderful businesses are almost given away. When that happens, buy boldly, paying no attention to current gloomy economic and stock market forecasts.”

When in Grizzly Country, travelers are advised to always have a can of bear spray on them. They say that bear spray can be more useful than a gun for Grizzly Bears and the much larger Polar bears. These being very strong animals, they say one or two bullets may not stop a full grown charging adult quickly enough. In the same way, in a bear market you need to protect yourself by diversifying your Portfolio. Diversification at this time is paramount. This is a good time to take advantage of the depressed prices to diversify your portfolio. You should balance your portfolios between fixed income and stocks, with shares in various types of companies – small cap, large cap and if possible have offshore investments. Diversifying may include buying into companies quoted on other exchanges in the region and not just your own

A good way to avoid encounters with a bear is to be bear – aware. You do not want to take the unnecessary risk of attracting Bears while in bear country by keeping food and trash in the open. In the same way investors need to consider any new risk that a bear market will expose them to. As with all investments, there are real risks to investing aggressively in the present circumstances. You need to analyze your risk tolerance critically before embarking on the investments. If you are already steeped in debt this may not be the best time to start aggressively investing. The investment horizon considered under the present economic conditions, is long term investing - thus it will be a while before you reap the returns. Ensure that you have a healthy balance between liquid investments and less liquid investments. Take into consideration the current economic situation, liquidating some of your investments may be detrimental

to you as this will imply selling at a throw away price. The important thing is to think and analyze your personal risk tolerance and don’t be panicked into taking action you will regret.

If you are attacked by a black bear they advise, you stay on the ground, you should never climb the nearest tree. This is because Black bears are excellent climbers and there is a very high possibility of the Bear trapping you in the tree. In a Bear market, stay grounded on your Investment Plan/Strategy. If you don’t have one, this could be a good time to create one, taking into consideration the prevailing economic circumstances. Importantly stick to the Plan. An Investment Plan will remove the emotion out of decision making. Do not make extreme changes to your investments just because the index is facing south. Investment decisions based on emotion or fear are not likely to be rational – stick to the long term plan. Consider that equity markets are affected more by sentiment than fundamentals in the short run. Sentiment can change very rapidly unlike fundamentals that have longevity. Seasoned investors will tell you that a market dip during an economic slowdown is never permanent. The market dips and rebounds.

It is advised if a grizzly bear begins to attack, you should play dead. Grizzlies are known for attacking until the perceived threat is neutralized, they are known to linger and make sure the threat is no more. Once it is content it will sluggishly walk away. In the same way the bear market conditions will not last forever. Be patient. How long bear markets take depends on several macro and micro economic variables and there is no certainty about when this bear run will end. However remember the more the share price comes down, the more of the company your can afford to buy. You must have faith in the long term potential of the economy. Thus is it is not important where the market is now but where it will be in five, ten or twenty years in future. Zoologist advise if you are unfortunate to meet with a Polar Bear - the biggest bears on earth and the largest of land carnivores do not act like prey and run. They are the most likely species to see you as a meal, and running away will only confirm their suspicions. Further, their habitat gives very few options to hide and they’re faster than you, and much better at running on snow and ice. If the Polar Bear approaches they recommend you

stand up straight, speak loudly and act like it should be scared of you. In a bear market take a similar stance (figuratively offcourse) don’t run and look for a possible place to hide. That we are currently in a bear market does not mean that it’s time to liquidate your holdings and store your money away to be used when it is safer. It is intuitively appealing to try and outrun the market or just give up and liquidate your investments. By liquidating your investments you are eliminating your exposure to growth when the market recoups. There is more money to be made in recessions than at any other time in the economic cycle. Paper losses that may ensue in the current circumstances are made real monetary losses only when you sell the stock. The cheaper stocks are when you purchase them, the higher your future rates of return will be when the market recovers.

History, it is said, repeats itself. In 1939 when Hitler was invading Europe and there was a global sense of fear. A young Yale graduate borrowed $10,000, to buy 100 shares in each of the 104 small cap quoted companies that were trading at less than $1 a share in the American stock exchange and the New York Stock Exchange. These were beaten down stocks and some of these companies were already bankrupt. This man invested in the market when the World was preparing for what was the bloodiest war in history and was still smarting from the great depression, with money he had borrowed.

This was a major risk by any standard. His investment paid off in four years, he disposed off his holdings for more than $ 40,000. He went on to accomplish many firsts in the investment field but this bizarre buy at that time earned him a place in the investing hall of fame. His name is Sir John Templeton and he is touted as one of the greatest contrarian investors of all time. Templeton’s formula was simple in theory – he would buy shares selling well below their asset value due to the company’s circumstances, what he called “points of maximum pessimism” and hold them for a period of time, usually five years until they reached what he considered to be their true worth. This approach called for a lot of research and discipline – definitely not to be influenced by the current market trends. Hopefully you will never meet a black, grizzly or polar bear face to face but definitely this is not the first nor the last bear run in the market. However, the decisions you make now will determine whether you will be mauled in this bear market or earn the bragging rights to having survived an onslaught of the bear in the market.

In a Bear market, stay grounded on your Inauld be a good time to create one, taking into consideration the prevailing economic circumstances.

I 2011 I Issue 312

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2011 I Issue 3 I 13

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For more information on this offer, please contact us at GreyOwl on +254 20 4451887/ + 254 20 4451660 Or e-mail to get the complete rate card on the-exchange@greyowl.co.ke

The Exchange is the official magazine of the East African Securities Exchanges, owned by the Nairobi Securities Exchange, Uganda Stock Exchange, Dar-es-Salaam Stock Exchange and the Rwanda CMAC.