NPS Project Capabilities

Modeling the Al-Qaida Terrorist AttackModeling the Al-Qaida Terrorist Attackon USS COLE (DDG 67) ,on USS COLE (DDG 67) ,

Aden Harbor 12 October 2000Aden Harbor 12 October 2000

Progress Report, 22 November 2001Progress Report, 22 November 2001

LT James Harney USNLT James Harney USN

Don Brutzman, MOVES InstituteDon Brutzman, MOVES Institute

Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey CaliforniaNaval Postgraduate School, Monterey California

Background:Naval Postgraduate School

““Navy’s University” Monterey CaliforniaNavy’s University” Monterey California

• USN, USMC, USA, USAF, allied officers, civil USN, USMC, USA, USAF, allied officers, civil serviceservice

• Two-year masters’ degrees with thesesTwo-year masters’ degrees with theses

MOVES InstituteMOVES Institute

• Modeling, Virtual Environments & SimulationModeling, Virtual Environments & Simulation

• Mix of computer science & ops research Mix of computer science & ops research simulationsimulation

““Navy’s University” Monterey CaliforniaNavy’s University” Monterey California

• USN, USMC, USA, USAF, allied officers, civil USN, USMC, USA, USAF, allied officers, civil serviceservice

• Two-year masters’ degrees with thesesTwo-year masters’ degrees with theses

MOVES InstituteMOVES Institute

• Modeling, Virtual Environments & SimulationModeling, Virtual Environments & Simulation

• Mix of computer science & ops research Mix of computer science & ops research simulationsimulation

Project Description

GoalGoal• Model all relevant aspects of the terrorist attack on the Model all relevant aspects of the terrorist attack on the

USS COLE in Aden, Yemen on 12 October 2000.USS COLE in Aden, Yemen on 12 October 2000.

MotivationMotivation• Produce high-resolution 3D virtual environmentProduce high-resolution 3D virtual environment

• Utilize publicly available, unclassified information assetsUtilize publicly available, unclassified information assets

• Provide a scenario background to support agent-based Provide a scenario background to support agent-based models for Anti-terrorism/Force Protection planningmodels for Anti-terrorism/Force Protection planning

• Develop tool for studying “lessons learned” regarding Develop tool for studying “lessons learned” regarding U.S. Navy Ship’s Self Defense while in portU.S. Navy Ship’s Self Defense while in port

GoalGoal• Model all relevant aspects of the terrorist attack on the Model all relevant aspects of the terrorist attack on the

USS COLE in Aden, Yemen on 12 October 2000.USS COLE in Aden, Yemen on 12 October 2000.

MotivationMotivation• Produce high-resolution 3D virtual environmentProduce high-resolution 3D virtual environment

• Utilize publicly available, unclassified information assetsUtilize publicly available, unclassified information assets

• Provide a scenario background to support agent-based Provide a scenario background to support agent-based models for Anti-terrorism/Force Protection planningmodels for Anti-terrorism/Force Protection planning

• Develop tool for studying “lessons learned” regarding Develop tool for studying “lessons learned” regarding U.S. Navy Ship’s Self Defense while in portU.S. Navy Ship’s Self Defense while in port

Modelers and sources

Data SourcesData Sources• Court of Inquiry report has massive details of interest Court of Inquiry report has massive details of interest

http://www.foia.navy.mil/usscole/index.html http://www.foia.navy.mil/usscole/index.html

• Federation of American Scientists web site has numerous Federation of American Scientists web site has numerous unclassified government and navy publications and unclassified government and navy publications and reference materials: http:// www.fas.orgreference materials: http:// www.fas.org

• Explosion Prototype Information: Explosion Prototype Information: http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/navy/docs/es310/warheahttp://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/navy/docs/es310/warheads/Warheads.htmds/Warheads.htm

• Various press reports and online newspaper archives (eg, Various press reports and online newspaper archives (eg, The Virginian Pilot, http://www.pilotonline.com)The Virginian Pilot, http://www.pilotonline.com)

Data SourcesData Sources• Court of Inquiry report has massive details of interest Court of Inquiry report has massive details of interest

http://www.foia.navy.mil/usscole/index.html http://www.foia.navy.mil/usscole/index.html

• Federation of American Scientists web site has numerous Federation of American Scientists web site has numerous unclassified government and navy publications and unclassified government and navy publications and reference materials: http:// www.fas.orgreference materials: http:// www.fas.org

• Explosion Prototype Information: Explosion Prototype Information: http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/navy/docs/es310/warheahttp://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/navy/docs/es310/warheads/Warheads.htmds/Warheads.htm

• Various press reports and online newspaper archives (eg, Various press reports and online newspaper archives (eg, The Virginian Pilot, http://www.pilotonline.com)The Virginian Pilot, http://www.pilotonline.com)

Court of Inquiry download Page

Unclasified Weapons Systems and Explosion Effects Information

Chartlet from

Court of Inquiry

NIMA Chart 62098 of Aden Harbor, Yemen

Basic Timeline Used in Scene-Graph from Court of Inquiry

3D Scene and Ship Models

Initial modeling ongoingInitial modeling ongoing

• Aggregate scene with time-based ship tracksAggregate scene with time-based ship tracks

– WaypointInterpolatorPrototypeWaypointInterpolatorPrototype

– Timeline based on Court of Inquiry found at:Timeline based on Court of Inquiry found at:

http://www.foia.navy.mil/usscole/index.htmlhttp://www.foia.navy.mil/usscole/index.html

• DDG-51, Arleigh Burke Class class DestroyerDDG-51, Arleigh Burke Class class Destroyer

• Generic Terrorist Boat based from first hand accounts in Generic Terrorist Boat based from first hand accounts in the Court of Inquiry.the Court of Inquiry.

• Landscape developed from Level 1 Defense Terrain Landscape developed from Level 1 Defense Terrain Elevation Data (DTED)Elevation Data (DTED)

Initial modeling ongoingInitial modeling ongoing

• Aggregate scene with time-based ship tracksAggregate scene with time-based ship tracks

– WaypointInterpolatorPrototypeWaypointInterpolatorPrototype

– Timeline based on Court of Inquiry found at:Timeline based on Court of Inquiry found at:

http://www.foia.navy.mil/usscole/index.htmlhttp://www.foia.navy.mil/usscole/index.html

• DDG-51, Arleigh Burke Class class DestroyerDDG-51, Arleigh Burke Class class Destroyer

• Generic Terrorist Boat based from first hand accounts in Generic Terrorist Boat based from first hand accounts in the Court of Inquiry.the Court of Inquiry.

• Landscape developed from Level 1 Defense Terrain Landscape developed from Level 1 Defense Terrain Elevation Data (DTED)Elevation Data (DTED)

3D Scene and Ship Models

Initial modeling ongoing (continued)Initial modeling ongoing (continued)

• Explosion effects based on U.S. Army’s TNT Explosion effects based on U.S. Army’s TNT explosion equivalency model.explosion equivalency model.

• Refueling pier based on photographs from Court Refueling pier based on photographs from Court of Inquiry and of Inquiry and The Virginian Pilot online The Virginian Pilot online (http://www.pilotonline.com)(http://www.pilotonline.com)

• Autogeneration of model library Autogeneration of model library

Initial modeling ongoing (continued)Initial modeling ongoing (continued)

• Explosion effects based on U.S. Army’s TNT Explosion effects based on U.S. Army’s TNT explosion equivalency model.explosion equivalency model.

• Refueling pier based on photographs from Court Refueling pier based on photographs from Court of Inquiry and of Inquiry and The Virginian Pilot online The Virginian Pilot online (http://www.pilotonline.com)(http://www.pilotonline.com)

• Autogeneration of model library Autogeneration of model library

Aden Harbor, Yemen

Small Scale Harbor Scene

Overview of Aden Harbor

Aden Harbor with Cole and Terrorist Boat Tracks

Before the Explosion

View from the Refueling Dolphin.

Terrorist Boat Stbd View

Explosion Model

-Unclassified Reports put the amount of explosives used at 1/3 ton of TNT equivalent

-TNT scaling law used in conjunction with the equivalency chart to determine radii of the three blast spheres -Scaling Law:

dW = do W1/3

where

do is the distance from 1 kg TNT

dw is the distance from W kg TNT

equivalent, and W = equivalent amount of TNT (kg)

Explosion Model 2

-3 different colors of

Explosion spheres used

To represent the fol:

Orange-Severe Damage

Red-Moderate

Black/Transparent- Light

Distances based on Army

TNT Equivalency Model.

The Explosion

Explosion, another viewpt

Comparing the Damage

Using DIS-JAVA-VRML -Networking the X3D/VRML scene utilizing the DIS protocol allows real world physics to be incorporated into the model

-Force Protection/Anti-Terrorism Plans can be implemented, observed, and analyzed in the simulation environment.

-Allows experimentation with published doctrine in a “non-hazardous” environment.

-Potential to show weaknesses in current plans and prevent possible attacks—saving lives.

-For example, would the attack on the COLE been successful if she had a picket boat in the water??? TBD

-Networking the X3D/VRML scene utilizing the DIS protocol allows real world physics to be incorporated into the model

-Force Protection/Anti-Terrorism Plans can be implemented, observed, and analyzed in the simulation environment.

-Allows experimentation with published doctrine in a “non-hazardous” environment.

-Potential to show weaknesses in current plans and prevent possible attacks—saving lives.

-For example, would the attack on the COLE been successful if she had a picket boat in the water??? TBD

Analyzing Force Protection Plans with DIS

Exposing the Model to JAVA Using DIS

Technology used: X3D

Extensible 3D (X3D) Graphics SpecificationExtensible 3D (X3D) Graphics Specification

• 33rdrd generation Virtual Reality Modeling Language generation Virtual Reality Modeling Language

• ISO international standard, non-proprietaryISO international standard, non-proprietary

• 3D graphics interchange for World Wide Web3D graphics interchange for World Wide Web

• Suitable for scaling up to very large networked worldsSuitable for scaling up to very large networked worlds

• Open source, commercial implementations availableOpen source, commercial implementations available

• http://www.web3D.org/x3d.htmlhttp://www.web3D.org/x3d.html

• NPS is leading X3D developmentNPS is leading X3D development

Extensible 3D (X3D) Graphics SpecificationExtensible 3D (X3D) Graphics Specification

• 33rdrd generation Virtual Reality Modeling Language generation Virtual Reality Modeling Language

• ISO international standard, non-proprietaryISO international standard, non-proprietary

• 3D graphics interchange for World Wide Web3D graphics interchange for World Wide Web

• Suitable for scaling up to very large networked worldsSuitable for scaling up to very large networked worlds

• Open source, commercial implementations availableOpen source, commercial implementations available

• http://www.web3D.org/x3d.htmlhttp://www.web3D.org/x3d.html

• NPS is leading X3D developmentNPS is leading X3D development

Future Work:

AnalysisAnalysis

• Develop appropriate Measures of Effectiveness for Develop appropriate Measures of Effectiveness for analysis of the model.analysis of the model.

• Expose the model through Java to Agents to develop Expose the model through Java to Agents to develop a realistic Ant-Terrorism/Force Protection (AT/FP) a realistic Ant-Terrorism/Force Protection (AT/FP) Plan analyzer incorporating the affects of basic Plan analyzer incorporating the affects of basic human behaviors and tendencies on the human behaviors and tendencies on the implementation of doctrineimplementation of doctrine

• Validate the agent behaviors against the actual Validate the agent behaviors against the actual events of 12 October 2000.events of 12 October 2000.

AnalysisAnalysis

• Develop appropriate Measures of Effectiveness for Develop appropriate Measures of Effectiveness for analysis of the model.analysis of the model.

• Expose the model through Java to Agents to develop Expose the model through Java to Agents to develop a realistic Ant-Terrorism/Force Protection (AT/FP) a realistic Ant-Terrorism/Force Protection (AT/FP) Plan analyzer incorporating the affects of basic Plan analyzer incorporating the affects of basic human behaviors and tendencies on the human behaviors and tendencies on the implementation of doctrineimplementation of doctrine

• Validate the agent behaviors against the actual Validate the agent behaviors against the actual events of 12 October 2000.events of 12 October 2000.

Future Work:

3D modeling3D modeling

• Animated tour of the scene-graphAnimated tour of the scene-graph

• Improved usability: Implement a “VCR-like” interface Improved usability: Implement a “VCR-like” interface to control the playback speed of the scenario.to control the playback speed of the scenario.

• Continue to refine development and add models to Continue to refine development and add models to the main scene-graph.the main scene-graph.

• Continue development of networked scene.Continue development of networked scene.

• Multimedia integration: audio, video, hypertext, still Multimedia integration: audio, video, hypertext, still imageryimagery

3D modeling3D modeling

• Animated tour of the scene-graphAnimated tour of the scene-graph

• Improved usability: Implement a “VCR-like” interface Improved usability: Implement a “VCR-like” interface to control the playback speed of the scenario.to control the playback speed of the scenario.

• Continue to refine development and add models to Continue to refine development and add models to the main scene-graph.the main scene-graph.

• Continue development of networked scene.Continue development of networked scene.

• Multimedia integration: audio, video, hypertext, still Multimedia integration: audio, video, hypertext, still imageryimagery

Contact

LT James Harney USNLT James Harney USNjwharney@nps.navy.miljwharney@nps.navy.mil

Don BrutzmanDon Brutzmanbrutzman@nps.navy.milbrutzman@nps.navy.mil

http://web.nps.navy.mil/~brutzmanhttp://web.nps.navy.mil/~brutzman

Code UW/Br, Naval Postgraduate SchoolCode UW/Br, Naval Postgraduate School

Monterey California 93943-5000 USAMonterey California 93943-5000 USA

831.656.2149 voice831.656.2149 voice

831.656.3679 fax831.656.3679 fax

LT James Harney USNLT James Harney USNjwharney@nps.navy.miljwharney@nps.navy.mil

Don BrutzmanDon Brutzmanbrutzman@nps.navy.milbrutzman@nps.navy.mil

http://web.nps.navy.mil/~brutzmanhttp://web.nps.navy.mil/~brutzman

Code UW/Br, Naval Postgraduate SchoolCode UW/Br, Naval Postgraduate School

Monterey California 93943-5000 USAMonterey California 93943-5000 USA

831.656.2149 voice831.656.2149 voice

831.656.3679 fax831.656.3679 fax