Norwegian Credit Market Overview - Danske...

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Denmark

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Finland

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Sweden

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United Kingdom

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This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors

Norwegian Credit Market Overview

7 September 2017

Haseeb Syed Bendik Engebretsen

Head of Credit Research Norway Credit Research Analyst

Phone +47 85 40 54 19 Phone +47 85 40 69 14

Mobile +47 97 98 78 82 Mobile +47 92 88 12 10

[email protected] [email protected]

Investment Research www.danskebank.com/CI Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 17 of this report.

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.danskebank.com/CI

Moody’s corporate credit spreads – somewhat stronger widening in the longer-end (B) index

2

* Premiums calculated as bp Low rating – bp High rating.

Source: Moody’s Investor Service, Danske Bank DCM Research (all charts)

Moody’s ‘B’ spreads over LIBOR by maturity (bp) Moody’s ‘BBB’ spreads over LIBOR by maturity (bp)

Moody’s five-year premiums by rating (bp)* Moody’s five-year spreads over LIBOR by rating (bp)

Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry

Nor. vs Eur. spreads

Spreads and oil

Relative pricing

International spreads

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17

3 years 5 years 7 years

117

254

408

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17

Baa2 Ba2 B2

75

117

152

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17

3 Year 5 Year 7 Year

Aaa Aa2 A2 Baa2 Ba2 B2 Caa-C

Aaa 0 24 62 111 248 401 490

Aa2 -24 0 38 87 223 377 466

A2 -62 -38 0 48 185 339 428

Baa2 -111 -87 -48 0 137 291 380

Ba2 -248 -223 -185 -137 0 154 243

B2 -401 -377 -339 -291 -154 0 89

Caa-C -490 -466 -428 -380 -243 -89 0

The NOK spread curves have tightened even more over the past two quarters

European vs Norwegian investment-grade spreads (bp)

3

NOK ‘BB’ spread curves: May 2017 vs April 2016

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank DCM Research (all charts)

European vs Norwegian high-yield spreads (bp)

NOK IG spread curves: March vs August 2017

Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil

Relative pricing


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17

bp

s o

ve

r b

ase

ra

te

5-Years NOK BB spread index

5-Years NOK HY spread index

iTraxx Crossover

0

100

200

300

400

500

Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17

bps o

ver

base r

ate

NOK 5-year A-index

NOK 5-year BBB-index

iTraxx Main

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Avera

ge s

pre

ad (

bps)

Years to maturity

IG curve August 2017 IG curve March 2017

15bps tightening

0

100

200

300

400

500

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Avera

ge s

pre

ad (

bps)

Years to maturity

BB curve August 2017 BB curve August 2017

25bps tightening

Both corporate IG and senior financials tightening in August

Norwegian investment grade vs oil price (Brent)

4

5Y senior financials vs Norwegian corporate IG (bp)

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank DCM Research (all charts)

Norwegian senior financials and municipalities (bp)

Norwegian high yield vs oil price (Brent)

Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil

Relative pricing


0

50

100

150

200

Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17

bps

NOK Senior financialsOslo municipalityOMF index

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17

US

D/b

bl

bps

NOK 5-year A-index

NOK 5-year BBB-index

Brent spot (r.h.a)

0

20

40

60

80

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17

US

D/b

bl

bps

5-Years NOK BB spread index

5-Years NOK HY spread index

Brent spot (r.h.a)

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17

bps

NOK 5-year A-index

NOK Senior financials

Notable inflows in fund HY and IG funds in July

Norwegian investment-grade fund flows

High yield inflows of NOK180m in July; largest HY inflows since March. IG inflows were substantial at NOK4.2bn.

5

*As per 20 June

Source: Verdipapirforbundet, Danske Bank DCM Research (all charts)

Norwegian high-yield fund flows

The 10 largest high-yield funds’ AuM (YTD change, NOKm AuM)*

Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil

Relative pricing


165

170

175

180

185

190

195

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17

AuM

(N

OK

bn)

Fu

nd flo

ws (

NO

Kb

n)

Sum IG flows IG AuM

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17

AuM

(N

OK

bn)

Fund flo

ws (

NO

Kbn)

Sum HY flows HY AuM

9%, 7,180

30%, 7,019

17%, 4,508

-17%, 2,414

-10%, 1,979

40%, 1,665

-8%, 1,484

5%, 1,282

48%, 1,001

107%, 974

DNB High Yield

Handelsbanken Høyrente

Holberg Kreditt

Pareto Høyrente

Storebrand Rente+

First Høyrente

Alfred Berg Høyrente CII (NOK)

SR-Rente

Eika Kreditt

Borea Høyrente

Primary corporate IG activity over the summer

Corporate IG bond issuance by sector (NOKm)

6

Selected corporate investment-grade bond settlements in July and August

Settlement date may differ from the date of the transaction.

Source: Stamdata, Danske Bank DCM Research (all charts and table)

Primary market 2017: corporate IG bond volumes

Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil

Relative pricing


ISIN Issuer

Issued

(NOKm)

Outstanding

(NOKm) Currency

Settlement

Date

Maturity

Date Risk Coupon (%)

Base rate /

Coupon type Issue Type

XS1639847760 ATF Netherlands B.V. 750 750 NOK Jul-17 Jul-27 Senior Unsecured 3.30 Fixed Bonds

NO0010795503 BKK AS 200 2,000 NOK Jul-17 May-22 Senior Unsecured 0.68 NIBOR 3 Month Bonds

NO0010723109 Braathen Eiendom Holding AS 175 525 NOK Jul-17 Nov-24 Senior Secured 3.40 Fixed Bonds

NO0010799547 Norwegian Property ASA 300 300 NOK Jul-17 Jul-24 Senior Secured 2.93 Fixed Bonds

NO0010798564 Ragde Eiendom AS 345 345 NOK Jul-17 Jul-20 Senior Secured 2.05 NIBOR 3 Month Bonds

NO0010720568 Helgeland Kraft AS 100 225 NOK Aug-17 Sep-24 Senior Unsecured 3.40 Fixed Bonds

NO0010802168 Lyse AS 100 100 NOK Aug-17 Aug-20 Senior Unsecured 0.48 NIBOR 3 Month Bonds

NO0010790363 Nortura SA 150 500 NOK Aug-17 Apr-23 Senior Unsecured 1.15 NIBOR 3 Month Bonds

NO0010744600 Nortura SA 50 513 NOK Aug-17 Sep-20 Senior Unsecured 1.05 NIBOR 3 Month Bonds

NO0010790918 Thon Holding AS 300 1,100 NOK Aug-17 Apr-22 Senior Secured 0.81 NIBOR 3 Month Bonds

NO0010790272 Vasakronan AB (publ) 100 300 NOK Aug-17 Apr-23 Senior Unsecured 0.85 NIBOR 3 Month Bonds

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2014 2015 2016 2017

Issued v

olu

mes Y

TD

(N

OK

bn)

May Jun Jul Aug

350

300

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Utilities

Real estate

Media

Transportation

Convenience Goods

Consumer Services

Industry

May-Jul issuances (NOKbn)

Aug issuances (NOKbn)

Primary corporate HY activity over the summer

Primary market 2017: corporate high-yield bond volumes Corporate HY issuance Apr-Aug 2017 by sector

7

Selected corporate high-yield bond settlements in July and August

Settlement date may differ from the date of the transaction.

Source: Stamdata, Danske Bank DCM Research (all charts and table)

Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil

Relative pricing


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2014 2015 2016 2017

Issued v

olu

mes Y

TD

(N

OK

bn)

May Jun Jul Aug

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Shipping

Oil and gas E&P

Seafood

Industry

Oil and gas services

Real estate

Consumer Services

Finance

Pulp, paper and forestry

May-Jul issuances (NOKbn)

August issuances (NOKbn)

ISIN Issuer

Issued

(NOKm)

Outstanding

(NOKm) Currency

Settlement

Date

Maturity

Date Risk Coupon (%)

Base rate /

Coupon type Issue Type

USR0140AAA71 Aker BP ASA 3,353 3,353 USD Jul-17 Jul-22 Senior Unsecured 6.00 Fixed Bonds

NO0010799257 Arctic Prosjekt 63 AS 700 700 NOK Jul-17 Jul-27 Senior Secured 3.62 Fixed Bonds

NO0010785769 Dooba Finance AB (publ) 11 347 GBP Jul-17 Jan-22 Senior Secured 10.00 Fixed Bonds

NO0010801442 Exmar Netherlands BV 126 128 USD Jul-17 Jul-19 Senior Unsecured 8.50 US-LIBOR 3

Month

Bonds

NO0010795602 Nova Austral S.A 2,509 2,509 USD Jul-17 May-21 Senior Secured 8.25 Fixed Bonds

NO0010801095 TiZir Ltd 816 2,420 USD Jul-17 Jul-22 Senior Secured 9.50 Fixed Bonds

NO0010799687 Palmyra Eiendom AS 65 65 NOK Jul-17 Jul-23 Senior Secured 4.00 Fixed Bonds

NO0010801434 Danefjellveien 9 AS 78 78 NOK Aug-17 Aug-22 Senior Secured 4.60 Fixed Bonds

NO0010795891 Songa Bulk ASA 355 979 USD Aug-17 Jun-22 Senior Secured 4.50 US-LIBOR 3

Month

Bonds

NO0010801707 Teekay Shuttle Tankers L.L.C. 1,973 1,236 USD Aug-17 Aug-22 Senior Unsecured 7.13 Fixed Bonds

NO0010804198 VIEO BV 3,263 3,263 EUR Sep-17 Sep-22 Senior Secured 6.75 Fixed Bonds

Little liquidity in HY-bonds at discount over the summer. Longer IG bonds gaining traction

Corporate high-yield secondary market traded volumes (NOKm) Price intervals for traded corp. HY volumes

8

Corporate IG secondary market traded volumes (NOKm) Maturity intervals for traded corp. IG volumes

Note: Figures include volumes from taps and repurchases.

Source: Oslo Børs, Danske Bank DCM Research (all charts)

Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil

Relative pricing


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2015 2016 2017

Tra

ded v

olu

mes (

NO

Kb

n)

Jun Jul Aug

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2015 2016 2017

Tra

ded v

olu

mes (

NO

Kb

n)

Jun Jul Aug

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

<50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100 >100

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

1 2-5 > 5

Traded volumes and spreads for the most liquid bonds in August

Volumes and spreads for most traded shipping bonds Volumes and spreads for most traded oil service bonds

9

Volumes and spreads for most traded in other* HY industries Volumes and spreads for most traded corp. IG names

Figures may include tap issuances and repurchases.

Note: In brackets the average traded price throughout past month; other industries include the sectors of consumer and convenience goods, transportation, industry, auto, telecom and more

Source: Oslo Børs, Danske Bank DCM Research (all charts)

Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil

Relative pricing


0 50 100 150 200

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

NAS07 (101)

VVH01 (99.6)

GEP01 (83.5)

DNO01 (102.1)

NHC02 (101.6)

INFRA01 (102.7)

NHC01 (100.9)

GENEL01 PRO (98.6)

AKER12 (104.3)

DETNOR02 (117.8)

Traded volumes (NOKm)

Average spread (bps)

Average spread

Traded volumes in Aug

0 100 200 300 400

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

TOP04 (100.8)

TOP05 (97.5)

GLOG02 (106.9)

TOP02 (100.8)

SNI05 (100.4)

HLNG03 (102.7)

OCY02 (102.1)

GOLP02 (96)

TKLNG04 (103.8)

HLNG02 (102.6)



Average spread

Traded volumes in Aug0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

BLH02 PRO (97)

JACKT01 PRO (99.8)

BBERG02 (101.4)

BOAO02 PRO (9.8)

DOFSUB08 (95.9)

SONG05 (99.6)

SONG04 (102.1)

BWO01 (95.2)

BWO04 (93.2)

EFOR01 PRO (76.5)



Average spread


0 500 1,000 1,500

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

BKK AS (97)

Statnett SF (99.8)

Nortura SA (101.4)

Thon Holding AS (9.8)

Vasakronan AB (publ) (95.9)

Entra ASA (99.6)

Statkraft AS (102.1)

Helgeland Kraft AS (95.2)

Sporveien AS (93.2)

Schibsted ASA (76.5)



Average spread


Relative value in the oil service industry

Time to maturity over prices – oil service industry

10

* Based on mid-price on 7 September (all charts).

Source: Bloomberg, Oslo Børs, Danske Bank DCM Research

Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil

Relative pricing (1)


HAVI04

HAVI07

SONG04DEED01 RET

BON03

BWO01

SONG05

BWO02

IOSH01 PRO

EMGS02

NADL01

BLH02 PRO

BOAO02 PRO

FOE05

BWO03

SDRL08

SIOFF02

AWDR01

SOFF04

BON05 BON06

BWO04

PGS 2018

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

Mid

price

Time to maturity (years)

TTM (yrs)

Average TTM

Average Mid Price

Relative value in the oil service industry– profitability versus price

LTM EBITDA margin over bond prices – oil service industry

11

* Based on mid-price.


Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil



SONG04DEED01 RET BON03

BWO01SONG05BWO02

NADL01

BLH02 PRO

BOAO02 PRO

FOE05

BWO03

SDRL08

AWDR01

BON05

BON06

BWO04

PGS 2018

0

20

40

60

80

100

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Mid

price

LTM EBITDA margin

EBITDA margin

Average EBITDA margin

Average Mid Price

Relative value in the oil services industry – leverage versus price

LTM net debt/EBITDA over bond prices – oil service industry

12

* Based on mid-price


Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil



SONG04 DEED01 RETBON03

BWO01

SONG05

BWO02

NADL01

BLH02 PRO

FOE05

BWO03

SDRL08

AWDR01

BON05BON06

BWO04

PGS 2018

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0

Mid

price

LTM NIBD/EBITDA

NIBD/EBITDA

Average NIBD/EBITDA

Average Mid Price

Relative value in the shipping industry

Time to maturity over quoted spread – shipping industry

13

Source: Bloomberg, Oslo Børs, Stamdata, Danske Bank DCM Research

Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil



WWI19 PRO

TOP02

SNI04ODF06

TOP04

WWI22

TKLNG02

TOP05

SNI05

SFLN03

OCY02

WWI23

SNI06

OCY03

TKLNG03

GOLP02

HLNG02

A.P. Møller

GLOG02

ODF07OCY04

TKLNG04

ODF08

HLNG03

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

Mid

spre

ad o

ver

3M

N (

bps)

Time to maturity (years)

TTM (yrs)

Average TTM

Average Mid spread

Relative value in the shipping industry – profitability versus spread

LTM EBITDA margin over quoted spread – shipping industry

14


Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil



WWI19 PRO

TOP02

SNI04

ODF06

TOP04

WWI22

TKLNG02

TOP05

SNI05

SFLN03

OCY02

WWI23

SNI06

OCY03

TKLNG03

GOLP02

HLNG02

A.P. MøllerA.P. Møller

A.P. Møller

GLOG02

ODF07OCY04

TKLNG04

ODF08

HLNG03

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Mid

spre

ad o

ver

3M

N (

bps)

LTM EBITDA margin

EBITDA MARGIN

Average EBITDA margin

Average Mid spread

Relative value in the shipping industry – leverage versus spread

LTM net debt/EBITDA over quoted spreads – shipping industry

15


Fund flows

Primary IG activity

Primary HY activity

Secondary activity

Trade by industry


Spreads and oil



WWI19 PRO

TOP02

SNI04

ODF06

TOP04

WWI22

TKLNG02

TOP05

SNI05

SFLN03

OCY02

WWI23

SNI06

OCY03

TKLNG03

GOLP02

HLNG02

A.P. MøllerA.P. Møller

A.P. Møller

GLOG02

ODF07OCY04

TKLNG04

ODF08

HLNG03

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

Mid

spre

ad o

ver

3M

N (

bps)

LTM NIBD/EBITDA

NIBD/EBITDA

Average NIBD/EBITDA

Average Mid spread

1616

Fixed Income Credit Research team

Find the latest Credit Research: :

Danske Bank Markets: http://www.danskebank.com/danskemarketsresearch Bloomberg: DNSK<GO>

Thomas Hovard

Head of Credit Research

+45 45 12 85 05

[email protected]

Gabriel Bergin

Strategy, Financials

+46 8 568 80602

[email protected]

Christopher Hellesnes

General Industrials

+46 8 568 80547

[email protected]

Jakob Magnussen

Utilities, Energy

+45 45 12 85 03

[email protected]

Henrik René Andresen

Credit Portfolios

+45 45 13 33 27

[email protected]

Bendik Engebretsen

Industrials

+47 85 40 69 14

[email protected]

Brian Børsting

Industrials

+45 45 12 85 19

[email protected]

Niklas Ripa

Credit Portfolios

+45 45 12 80 47

[email protected]

Louis Landeman

Industrials, Real Estate

+46 8 568 80524

[email protected]

Mads Rosendal

Industrials, TMT

+45 45 14 88 79

[email protected]

August Moberg

Industrials & Construction

+46 8 568 80593

[email protected]

Jesper Damkjær

Financials

+45 45 12 80 41

[email protected]

Haseeb Syed

Industrials

+47 85 40 54 19

[email protected]

Katrine Jensen

Financials

+45 45 12 80 56

[email protected]

17

DisclosuresThis research report has been prepared by Danske Bank DCM Research, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’). The authors of this research report are Haseeb Syed (Senior Analyst) and Bendik

Engebretsen (Analyst).

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Report completed: 7 September 2017 at 09:00 GMT

Report disseminated: 7 September 2017 at 10:30 GMT

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