Norfolk’s Story · 2020-01-14 · Norfolk’s Story – April 2019 Page 3 of 56 Produced by NCC...

Norfolk’s Story – April 2019

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Produced by NCC Intelligence & Analytics Team

Norfolk’s Story

April 2019

Version 9.0


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Contents 1 Key findings 3

2 Introduction 8 2.1 Purpose of ‘Norfolk’s Story’ 8 2.2 Statement on data 8 2.3 Norfolk the place – an overview 9

3 Norfolk’s population 11

3.1 Current population profile 11 3.2 Future population profile 13

4 Norfolk – both urban and rural 18 4.1 Classification 18 4.2 Population by district 19

4.3 Population by age 21

5 Deprivation and poverty in Norfolk 24

5.1 Income 24 5.2 Deprivation indices 24 5.3 Child poverty 27 5.4 Fuel poverty 29

6 Health and wellbeing in Norfolk 31 6.1 Children’s and young people’s health 31

6.2 Adults’ health and lifestyle 32 6.3 Disease and poor health 33 6.4 Life expectancy and causes of death 35

7 Crime and disorder levels in Norfolk 37 7.1 National context 37

7.2 Local picture of crime and disorder 38

8 Norfolk’s economy 41

8.1 Structure of the local economy 41 8.2 Economic competitiveness 47

8.3 Labour market 49

9 Education and skills in Norfolk 51 9.1 Educational attainment 51

9.2 Skills 53 10 Concluding remarks 55


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1 Key findings This report highlights key and cross-cutting issues for Norfolk such as changes in Norfolk’s population, deprivation, economic, health and rural issues, which could then be used to inform the planning of local service strategies and provision.

It is a high-level report that is supported by detailed needs assessments and plans. As a result, Norfolk’s Story is not a strategy, but is the evidence base to support the development of strategy and policy to inform decision making and resource allocation.

This revised version contains the most up to date data and information available at the time of publication.

Norfolk’s population

• Norfolk’s population is around 898,400, with more people living in King’s Lynn & West Norfolk and Norwich and fewer people living in Great Yarmouth and North Norfolk.

• Over the last five years since 2012, Norfolk’s population has increased by 3.9%.

• Norfolk’s ethnic make-up is characterised by a predominantly White English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish, British or Irish population (92.9%).

• The proportion of people with an ethnic group other than White is 3.5%, and this varies from 1.4% in North Norfolk to 9.2% in Norwich.

• There are around 160 languages spoken in Norfolk. English is not the first language of around 11,350 school children in the county.

• Norfolk’s population could rise by an estimated 52,400 over the decade to 2026 - this is an increase of 5.9%.

• South Norfolk, Breckland and Norwich are projected to be the fastest growing districts in the county.

• In the main, Norfolk has an ageing population. It is expected that around 26% of the population will be aged 65 and over by 2026.

• The 85+ population is projected to grow significantly with a 24% increase by 2026.

• Norfolk’s population is projected to exceed one million by 2041.

Norfolk – both urban and rural

• While Norfolk’s land area is around 93% rural, just over half our residents live in an environment that can be classed as urban.

• Over the past few years, there has been a shift in where people live in Norfolk, with an increase in numbers of people living in urban settings and a corresponding reduction of people living in rural settings.

• All districts except North Norfolk have at least a third of their population living in urban areas and none of Norfolk’s districts is wholly rural.


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• There has been a shift in the county’s urban/rural split at district level over recent years, with people living in an urban setting markedly increasing in Breckland, King’s Lynn & West Norfolk and South Norfolk.

• Great Yarmouth also has a marked change in its urban/rural split, but conversely with an increase in people living in a rural setting.

• People aged 45 to 64 and older people aged 65+ are more likely to live in rural as opposed to urban areas. The opposite is true of children aged 0 to 15, younger adults aged 16 to 29 and adults aged 30 to 44.

• Almost 60% of people aged 65+ live in rural areas.

Deprivation and poverty in Norfolk

• The average annual gross pay in Norfolk is around £21,500. Over the last year Norfolk’s pay gap has narrowed compared with national pay levels.

• Breckland has had the highest average pay increase (proportionately) in the county, compared with the previous year, with North Norfolk having the lowest increase.

• The Indices of Deprivation 2015 show that Norfolk has experienced an increase in relative deprivation compared with 2010.

• Of Norfolk’s 538 LSOAs, 237 have moved to a more deprived decile compared with 2010.

• Around 68,200 Norfolk residents live in areas which have been classified as being among the 10% most deprived in England.

• The most deprived areas in Norfolk are still concentrated in the urban areas of Great Yarmouth, Norwich, King’s Lynn and Thetford.

• Great Yarmouth is the twentieth most deprived lower tier local authority nationally.

• There are around 24,800 children living in low-income families in Norfolk.

• Norwich, Great Yarmouth and King’s Lynn & West Norfolk each have higher rates of children living in low-income families than the Norfolk average.

• There are around 42,300 Norfolk households in fuel poverty.

• Except for North Norfolk, the level of households in fuel poverty has increased (worsened) over the year for each of Norfolk’s districts.

• Great Yarmouth has the highest proportion of households in fuel poverty in the county.

Health and wellbeing in Norfolk

• Conceptions by girls aged under 18 years have reduced in Norfolk every year from 2009 to 2014, but there was a slight increase in 2015, followed by a reduction in 2016.


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• Despite a mainly reducing trend over recent years, Norfolk has a significantly higher rate of women smoking during pregnancy (at the time of delivery) than the England average.

• Over recent years, Norfolk’s level of childhood obesity peaked in 2011/12, and since then has levelled off.

• Over recent years, prevalence of smoking in Norfolk adults peaked in 2011 and since then has gradually decreased in line with the England average, except for in the most recent year where Norfolk’s prevalence increased.

• Around 4,600 people died from smoking related illnesses in Norfolk during the period 2015 to 2017.

• Two in three Norfolk adults are classed as overweight or obese.

• Three in ten Norfolk adults do not take enough physical exercise to benefit their health.

• Overall, Norfolk people continue to rate their life satisfaction and happiness more highly than the England average, and their anxiety levels as lower than the average.

• For Norfolk, over the past four years, there has been an improving trend in diabetes diagnoses.

• Falls are a large cause of emergency hospital admissions for older people and there were almost 1,300 in Norfolk because of hip fractures in 2017/18.

• During the three-year period 2015 to 2017, in Norfolk around 250 people killed themselves. The rate for emergency hospital stays due to self-harm in Norfolk is significantly lower than the England average.

• Norfolk’s rate of admissions to hospital for alcohol-related conditions is significantly worse than the England average.

• For Norfolk, around three in five people with dementia have been diagnosed.

• For Norfolk, life expectancy for males is 80.1 years and for females is 83.8 years, with both being significantly better than the England average. Males are living in poor health for an average of 17 years and females for 21 years.

Crime and disorder levels in Norfolk

• For most people Norfolk is very safe - it has one of the lowest crime rates in the country.

• Overall, the total number of crimes recorded by police in Norfolk increased by around 11.6% over the 12 months to March 2018.

• The rate of total recorded offences per 1,000 residents for Norfolk has increased to 63.1, which continues to be better (lower) than the national rate.

• The number of anti-social behaviour incidents recorded by the police in Norfolk has decreased over the last year, following a slight increase the previous year.


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• For Norfolk as a whole, and for each of the seven districts, total police recorded crime has increased in the 12 months to March 2018.

• Breckland, North Norfolk, Great Yarmouth and King’s Lynn & West Norfolk have each experienced higher percentage increases in recorded crime than the Norfolk average.

• Norwich and Great Yarmouth continue to have higher crime rates than the Norfolk average.

• Norfolk’s Crime Severity Score is better (lower) than the scores for the region and nationally and has increased more slowly when compared with the previous year.

Norfolk’s economy

• The most significant industry sector in Norfolk, in employment terms, continues to be the health sector.

• The second most significant industry sector in employment terms continues to be the retail sector.

• The third most significant industry sector in employment terms continues to be the manufacturing sector.

• Both the accommodation & food service sector and the agriculture, forestry & fishing sector in Norfolk employ at a higher level than the region and nationally.

• Sectors where Norfolk employs at a lower level than regionally and nationally include the business administration & support service sector; the professional, scientific & technical sector; and the information & communication sector.

• Norfolk has a relatively high proportion of part-time jobs compared with national and regional averages.

• Over the last ten years, the proportion of people employed in higher paid occupations in Norfolk has been consistently much higher than other occupational groups, with a generally increasing trend.

• Over the last year, people employed in administrative, secretarial and skilled trade occupations in Norfolk have increased their share of employment, compared with a decline for people employed in caring, leisure, other service occupations, sales and customer service occupations.

• During 2017, the estimated number of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals in Norfolk has fallen sharply to around 6,300, which is a decrease of around 1,600 on the previous year and is the lowest annual figure since 2012.

• Broadland and South Norfolk stand out as areas with significantly lower rates of NINo registrations compared with the other districts. Norwich has consistently the highest rate of NINo registrations annually.

• Norfolk’s GVA per capita has steadily increased in recent years but is typically much lower than that of the UK. For Norfolk, the largest contributor to GVA is the public administration, education and health sector, followed by the distribution, transport, accommodation and food sector.


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• Overall, the average weekly gross pay for full-time employee jobs during 2018 for Norfolk was £515.10, which is around 10% below national pay, although the gap is narrowing.

• Having been better than the national rate for several years, over the year to March 2018, Norfolk’s employment rate has dipped below the England average.

Education and skills in Norfolk

• At EYFS, the percentage of Norfolk pupils achieving the expected standard (a good level of development) has continued to increase and for 2018 has slightly exceeded the national average.

• Pupils eligible for free school meals are far less likely to reach the expected standard in all EYFS early learning goals, compared with other pupils.

• At KS2 level, the percentage of Norfolk children reaching the expected standard for test outcomes and teacher assessments is below national figures in all subjects.

• Disadvantaged pupils are far less likely to reach the expected standard at KS2 in reading, writing and maths, compared with other pupils.

• At KS4, the percentage of Norfolk pupils who achieved a 9-4 pass in English and maths is below the national average.

• Disadvantaged pupils are far less likely to achieve a 9-4 pass at KS4 in English and maths, compared with other pupils.

• Norfolk has a worse rate of higher qualifications within the working age population and is falling behind the region and nationally more quickly.

• Around 45,100 of Norfolk’s 16 to 64-year olds have no qualifications.

• The proportion of Norfolk’s 16 and 17-year olds participating in education and training is slightly lower than for the region and nationally.

• There were far fewer apprenticeship starts for Norfolk during 2017/18 compared with the previous year, with sectors having the highest numbers of starts being Business, Administration and Law; and Health, Public Services and Care.


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2 Introduction

2.1 Purpose of ‘Norfolk’s Story’

Norfolk County Council works with a wide range of partners from the public, private, voluntary and community sectors, in order to achieve shared ambitions and objectives.

Local authorities, together with other partners, collect a range of data and evidence to support service decision making and resource allocation. Norfolk’s Story aims to bring key evidence together, along with nationally published data, to provide a robust analysis of Norfolk.

The analysis will highlight key and cross-cutting issues such as changes in our population, deprivation, economic, health and rural issues, which could then be used to inform the planning of local service strategies and provision. This means that policy making at all levels can be based around a shared understanding of local challenges and help make sure that interventions delivered by different partners are aligned and complementary.

Norfolk’s Story is intended to be a high-level report of key information that is supported by detailed needs assessments and plans, such as the Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA), the Local Economic Assessment (LEA), the Strategic Economic Plan and Norfolk’s Transport Plan.

As a result, this report is not a strategy, but is the evidence base to support the development of strategy and policy to inform decision making and resource allocation.

2.2 Statement on data

The data contained in this report comes from a range of national and local sources and are the most recent figures available to illustrate the current picture in Norfolk. Sources and dates of data have been acknowledged throughout the report.

The data used in this report is at various geographical levels, depending on what level the data is available at and the most appropriate level to display the data. Some data will be at local authority or district level, some at Middle level Super Output Area (MSOA) and some at Lower level Super Output Area (LSOA)1. In order to provide more context, local and national comparator data has been included where possible.

It is acknowledged that this report will not include everything about Norfolk and the people of Norfolk, but it does contain key information to present a contextual picture. Additional information can be found on Norfolk Insight, which may deal with some areas in more detail (http://www.norfolkinsight.org.uk). Norfolk Insight is the county’s locality-focused information system and the host of Norfolk’s online JSNA. This is a public-facing website which presents key data for Norfolk and allows this to be downloaded.

1 Within England and Wales a Lower Layer (minimum population of 1,000 and maximum population of 3,000) and a Middle Layer (minimum population of 5,000 and maximum population of 15,000) were introduced in 2004. Unlike electoral wards, these SOA layers are of consistent size across the country and will not be subjected to regular boundary change.

http://www.norfolkinsight.org.uk/


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2.3 Norfolk the place – an overview

Norfolk is made up of seven local authority areas - Norwich City; Broadland District; South Norfolk District; Breckland District; North Norfolk District; King’s Lynn & West Norfolk Borough; and Great Yarmouth Borough (Figure 2.1). Norfolk is a large county of around 551,000 hectares2, with a population of around 898,4003 and 388,600 households4. Norwich is the only major city in the county and there are also three large towns - Great Yarmouth, King’s Lynn and Thetford. The estimated proportion of Norfolk’s population living in an urban setting has increased from 47.5% in 2010 to 50.8% by 2017, with the corresponding reduction of people living in a rural setting from 52.5% in 2010 to 49.2% by 2017.5 Figure 2.1: Map showing Norfolk district boundaries

Source: Norfolk County Council

Norfolk’s natural environment is made up of a combination of outstanding coastline (much of which is designated as an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty), some of the unique and internationally famed Norfolk Broads and valuable heathland and woodland. The Broads is a nationally designated area of national park equivalent

2 ONS Open Geography Portal 3 ONS, mid-2017 population estimates 4 ONS, 2016-based household projections 5 ONS mid-2017 population estimates; and ONS population density and land area measures 2014


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status, where the Broads Authority is the local planning authority and has special responsibilities for the area’s management. Norfolk has around 6,100 miles of road. In terms of primary road transport connections, the county has no motorways, but there are strategic trunk roads that provide road connections to the rest of the region and the wider UK. The A47 trunk road crosses the county west to east, linking to Peterborough and the midlands. The A17, although not a trunk road, provides a main road link westward to Lincolnshire and the north. The A11 trunk road runs south west, from Norwich to London and the south east of England via the M11/M25 (and via the A14 links with Cambridge). The A12 connects the eastern end of the A47 at Great Yarmouth with Lowestoft in Suffolk. Although not a trunk road, south of Lowestoft it connects to Ipswich, Colchester, Chelmsford and London. The A1270 Broadland Northway (previously known as the Norwich Northern Distributor Road NDR) is a dual-carriageway linking the A47 to the south east of Norwich to Norwich International Airport to the north of the city, before finishing at the A1067 Fakenham Road to the north west of the city. There are rail links to Norwich from the south and south west and there is a separate line from the south to King’s Lynn. These routes link the county to Cambridge, London and the south east. There are also rail connections to the midlands and the north via Ely and Peterborough. Rail services continue beyond Norwich to Cromer and Sheringham on the north coast and to Great Yarmouth and Lowestoft (Suffolk) on the east coast. But there are no direct railway lines between King’s Lynn and Norwich and rail connections between these centres are via Ely. Ports at Great Yarmouth and King’s Lynn provide for offshore industries and for freight movement to and from European ports and beyond. Great Yarmouth provides the shortest sea crossing between the UK and the Netherlands and is England’s principal support port for offshore energy in the Southern North Sea and is the closest viable deep-water harbour to the East Anglia Array wind farm project. There are also several minor harbours along the north coast which serve smaller vessels and support fishing, leisure and tourism sectors. In addition to the Norfolk ports there are accessible seaports just beyond our county boundaries, at Wisbech in Cambridgeshire and Lowestoft in Suffolk. The international airport at Norwich has regular connections within the UK and with the hub at Schiphol in the Netherlands providing routes to worldwide destinations. Norfolk has a large amount of planned growth over the next few years. Since 2014 in Norfolk and Suffolk, 43,600 more jobs and 5,710 new businesses have been created and 18,850 new homes built. Planned growth by 2036 includes 88,000 new jobs, 30,000 new successful businesses and 140,000 new homes.6

6 New Anglia LEP Economic Strategy (November 2017) – https://newanglia.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/New-Anglia-Economic-Strategic-Brochure-Lowres.pdf

https://newanglia.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/New-Anglia-Economic-Strategic-Brochure-Lowres.pdf


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3 Norfolk’s population It is important to understand the current and projected population profile of the county, in order to help plan public services and allocate resources now and for the future. This section gives a picture of the local demographic.

3.1 Current population profile

The latest population estimates published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are for mid-2017. Norfolk’s population is an estimated 898,400 and the figures by local authority are given in Table 3.1. This is an increase of around 6,700 compared with the mid-2016 population, or an increase of 0.75%. Over the last five years since 2012, Norfolk’s population has increased by 3.9% (or around 33,500 people), compared with an increase of 4.4% in the East of England region and 4.0% in England. Table 3.1: Estimated population, mid-2016 and mid-2017

Local authority area Mid-2016 estimate (in thousands)

Mid-2017 estimate (in thousands)

Breckland 137.1 138.6 Broadland 127.4 128.5 Great Yarmouth 99.0 99.4 King's Lynn & West Norfolk 151.8 151.9 North Norfolk 103.6 104.1 Norwich 139.9 140.4 South Norfolk 133.0 135.5 Norfolk 891.7 898.4

Source: ONS, mid-2017 Note: figures may not equal due to rounding

Figure 3.1 shows Norfolk’s population by percentage breakdown for each five-year age group, by gender. This shows that currently, the population is made up of slightly more males in the younger age groups, until a gender parity is reached around age 30. From this point onwards, there are slightly more females in each age group, becoming rather more apparent for those aged 80 and over. Over the five-year period from 2012, in terms of broad age groups, numbers of children and young people in the county (aged 0-15) increased by around 6,100 (increase of 4.2% compared with an increase of 5.0% nationally); numbers of working age adults (aged 16-64) increased by around 5,700 (increase of 1.1% compared with an increase of 1.9% nationally); and numbers of older people (aged 65 and over) increased by around 21,600 (increase of 11.1% compared with an increase of 10.8% nationally). The estimates for mid-2017 confirm that Norfolk’s population has a much older age profile than England as a whole, with 24.1% of Norfolk’s population aged 65 and over, compared with 18.0% in England. Children and young people (aged 0 to 15) make up 16.9% of Norfolk’s population (compared with 19.1% nationally) and working age adults (aged 16 to 64) make up 59.0% (compared with 62.8% nationally).


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Figure 3.1: Proportion of males and females in Norfolk, by five-year age group, mid-2017

Source: ONS, mid-2017

Figure 3.2 shows population density (persons per square kilometre) in Norfolk, by ward. The urban centres stand out as being more densely populated (represented by the darker coloured areas on the map), but in addition to lower density rural areas the map also shows moderately high densities in several contiguous areas – particularly in the vicinity of Norwich and Great Yarmouth. Figure 3.2: Norfolk population density at ward level, 2016

Source: ONS, 2016


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Norfolk’s ethnic make-up is characterised by a predominantly White English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish, British or Irish population (92.9% in the 2011 Census). A further 0.1% are Gypsy or Irish Travellers and 3.5% Other White. The proportion of people with an ethnic group other than White is 3.5%, and at local authority level this figure varies from 1.4% in North Norfolk to 9.2% in Norwich. In terms of national identity, the 2011 Census shows that 95% of people are associated in some way with a UK, British or English identity, and the remaining five per cent with other nationalities only. Around 22,900 (3.5% of passports held) are for EU countries (after the UK and Ireland are excluded). There are around 160 languages spoken as a first language other than English, by Norfolk school children. Polish is the most widely spoken first language other than English across Norfolk’s school children, with Lithuanian being the second most widely spoken and Portuguese the third. Almost half of all the county’s 11,350 children who have a first language other than English speak one of Polish, Lithuanian or Portuguese as a first language. Norwich has the greatest language diversity in the county with around 130 languages spoken by school children as a first language other than English, compared with North Norfolk, where around 50 languages are spoken.7 Although the number of people in Norfolk identifying as Christian has fallen over the last decade, Christianity remains the main faith in the county (61% in the 2011 Census). Numbers of people identifying as Buddhist, Hindu and Muslim have increased in the last decade, as have those with no religion.

3.2 Future population profile

To help plan public services and allocate resources for the future, we need an informed estimate of what Norfolk’s population is likely to be over the long term. ONS prepares a trend-based sub-national population projection for each local authority in the country, and the current projections are 2016-based projections to 2041. The purpose of these projections is to indicate how the population could change if recent past trends are assumed to continue. The results are shown in Table 3.2. On this basis, from 2016 to 2026 there is projected growth of around 52,400 people in Norfolk – this is an increase of 5.9% which is below the East of England projected increase of 7.3% and the same as the national projected increase of 5.9%. Looking further ahead, there is projected growth from 2016 to 2041 of around 110,600 people in Norfolk – this is an increase of 12.4% which is below the East of England projected increase of 15.3% and above the national projected increase of 12.1%. For both timescales, the largest increase in numbers is projected to be in South Norfolk, and the smallest increase in numbers is projected to be in Great Yarmouth. Norfolk’s population is projected to exceed one million by 2041.

7 NCC Spring 2018 School Census from LA maintained schools, academies, special schools and free schools


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Table 3.2: Projected population to 2026 and 2041

(in thousands) 2016 2026 2041 2016-2026 increase 2016-2041 increase

Local authority area Number % Number %

Breckland 137.1 147.9 159.4 10.8 7.9 22.3 16.3

Broadland 127.4 133.1 140.3 5.7 4.5 12.9 10.1

Great Yarmouth 99.0 101.6 104.9 2.6 2.6 5.9 6.0

King's Lynn & West Norfolk 151.8 159 166.8 7.2 4.7 15.0 9.9

North Norfolk 103.6 107.9 113.8 4.3 4.2 10.2 9.8

Norwich 139.9 147.4 156.5 7.5 5.4 16.6 11.9

South Norfolk 133.0 147.2 160.6 14.2 10.7 27.6 20.8

Norfolk 891.7 944.1 1002.3 52.4 5.9 110.6 12.4 Source: ONS 2016-based sub-national population projections Note: figures may not equal due to rounding The age structure and distribution around the county of that future population is also useful to know when long-term planning for future services. Overall, Norfolk’s population is projected to increase over the ten years to 2026 by around 52,400 people, or around six per cent (Table 3.3). Norfolk’s oldest age groups are projected to grow the quickest over the ten years to 2026, with numbers of 75 to 84-year-olds projected to increase by around 41% and numbers of those aged 85 and over projected to increase by around 24%. Numbers of those aged 15 to 29 are projected to fall by around two per cent, with all other age groups projected to increase over the next ten years. Of course, the age structure of the population varies across Norfolk’s local authority areas, but in the main, looking forward to 2026, Norfolk continues to have an ageing population. Table 3.3: Norfolk projected population change 2016-2026 by broad age group

(in thousands) 2016 2026 2016-2026 change

Age group Number %

0-14 141.2 147.7 6.5 4.6

15-29 153.1 150.0 -3.1 -2.0

30-44 149.3 160.0 10.7 7.2

45-64 235.1 237.9 2.8 1.2

65-74 115.6 116.2 0.6 0.5

75-84 67.9 95.8 27.9 41.1

85+ 29.4 36.5 7.1 24.1

All ages 891.7 944.1 52.4 5.9 Source: ONS 2016-based sub-national population projections Note: figures may not equal due to rounding Norfolk’s population aged 65 and over (around 24% of the population in 2016-based sub-national population projections) is projected to increase to around 26% by 2026. Over the ten years to 2026, the population aged 65 and over is projected to increase by around 35,600 people, or an increase of around 17% (Table 3.4). The highest percentage increases are in Breckland and South Norfolk and the lowest (and starting from a lower base) is in Norwich.


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Table 3.4: Projected increase in population aged 65 and over, 2016 to 2026


Local authority area Number %

Breckland 33.4 40.6 7.2 21.6

Broadland 32.2 36.9 4.7 14.6

Great Yarmouth 23.4 27.1 3.7 15.8

King’s Lynn & West Norfolk 38.4 44.3 5.9 15.4

North Norfolk 33.2 38.3 5.1 15.4

Norwich 20.8 23.0 2.2 10.6

South Norfolk 31.7 38.5 6.8 21.5

Norfolk 212.9 248.5 35.6 16.7 Source: ONS 2016-based sub-national population projections Note: figures may not equal due to rounding

Norfolk’s population aged 85 and over (around 3.3% of the population in 2016-based sub-national population projections) is projected to increase to around 3.9% by 2026. Over the ten years to 2026, the population aged 85 and over is projected to increase by around 7,100 people, or an increase of around 24% (Table 3.5). The highest percentage increases are in South Norfolk and Breckland and the lowest is in Norwich. This age group is the most likely to require social care, so increases in the size of this older group are likely to have a high impact on the demand for social care services. Table 3.5: Projected increase in population aged 85 and over, 2016 to 2026


Local authority area Number %

Breckland 4.5 6.0 1.5 33.3

Broadland 4.5 5.7 1.2 26.7

Great Yarmouth 3.1 3.8 0.7 22.6

King’s Lynn & West Norfolk 5.1 6.3 1.2 23.5

North Norfolk 4.8 5.8 1.0 20.8

Norwich 3.3 3.3 0.0 0.0

South Norfolk 4.2 5.7 1.5 35.7

Norfolk 29.4 36.5 7.1 24.1 Source: ONS 2016-based sub-national population projections Note: figures may not equal due to rounding

The effects of the projected population change by broad age group are illustrated at Figure 3.3. Population growth over the ten years to 2026 as a whole is heavily influenced by growth in the 65+ population, though less so for Norwich. Great Yarmouth and North Norfolk 0 to 24 and 25 to 64 age groups are projected to reduce as a proportion of the population over the period.


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Figure 3.3: Projected population change (%) by broad age group, 2016-2026

Source: ONS 2016-based sub-national population projections

Figure 3.4 goes on to illustrate how these broad age groups are projected to vary between local authority areas in 2026. The two divergent cases are North Norfolk and Norwich. In the former there is projected to be a high proportion of the population aged 65 and over, related in part to the district’s popularity as a retirement area. In the latter there is projected to be a high proportion aged under 25, related in part to the area’s large student population and the tendency of graduates to remain in the area. Figure 3.4: Projected broad age groups as percentage of population, 2026



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Looking further ahead, Figure 3.5 shows Norfolk’s population by percentage breakdown for each five-year age group for 2016 compared with projections for 2041, split by males and females. As a proportion of Norfolk’s whole population, the county’s oldest age groups are projected to grow, compared with many of the other age groups which are projected to reduce. In short, going forward, Norfolk’s population will have a much older profile than now. Figure 3.5: Projected proportion of males and females in Norfolk, by age group, 2016 compared with 2041



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4 Norfolk – both urban and rural We tend to think of Norfolk as being a rural county with great expanses of green open space. We have a stunning natural environment from the outstanding coastline (much of which is designated as an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty), to the unique and internationally famed Norfolk Broads and valuable heathland and woodland such as Thetford Forest and The Brecks. But the picture is more complex than that.

4.1 Classification Each LSOA in England has a rural or urban classification – for Norfolk there are four rural classifications and one urban classification - assignments of LSOA/MSOA to rural or urban categories are made by reference to the category to which the majority of their constituent Output Areas (OA) are assigned. In the rural-urban classification (RUC) at OA level, output areas are treated as ‘urban’ if they were allocated to a 2011 built-up area with a population of 10,000 or more. On this basis, Figure 4.1 shows Norfolk to be extremely rural, in particular with a good many sparse rural areas in the north of the county, although this doesn’t tell us what proportions of people are living in each type of area. Figure 4.1: Rural and urban areas of Norfolk, by LSOA

Source: ONS, 2014


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Table 4.1 shows how the county’s population and land area are divided between each of the area types. Norfolk’s land area is around 93% rural, including smaller towns and their fringes, villages and hamlets, and this area includes a little under half the county’s population. The remaining seven per cent of the land area is classed as urban and includes a little over half the county’s population. The concept of sparsity is essentially one of population density, and around 88% of the county is classed as less sparse, though this includes 95% of the population. Norfolk’s population has seen a shift over recent years, with an increase in numbers of people living in urban and less sparse town and fringe settings, and a corresponding decrease in numbers of people living in sparse town and fringe and village settings. The estimated proportion of Norfolk’s population living in an urban setting has increased from 47.5% in 2010 to 50.8% by 2017, with the corresponding reduction of people living in a rural setting from 52.5% in 2010 to 49.2% by 2017.

Table 4.1: Norfolk urban and rural area types, mid-2017

Wider area type

Narrower area type Mid-2017

population

% of mid-2017

population

% of total land area

Urban City and town 456,700 50.8 7.2 Rural Town and fringe - less sparse 178,000 19.8 15.3 Town and fringe - sparse 21,900 2.4 1.4 Village and dispersed - less sparse 222,500 24.8 65.8 Village and dispersed - sparse 19,300 2.1 10.3 Total 898,400 100.0 100.0 Urban 456,700 50.8 7.2 Rural 441,700 49.2 92.8 Total 898,400 100.0 100.0 Less sparse 857,200 95.4 88.3 Sparse 41,200 4.6 11.7 Total 898,400 100.0 100.0

Note: Figures may not equal due to rounding Source: ONS mid-2017 population estimates; and ONS population density and land area measures 2014

4.2 Population by district All districts except North Norfolk have at least a third of their population living in urban areas, and none of Norfolk’s districts is wholly rural (Table 4.2). So, while most of Norfolk looks rural, more than half our residents live in an environment that can be classed as urban. Figure 4.2 illustrates the broad urban/rural split of each area. There has been a shift in the county’s urban/rural split at district level over recent years. The estimated proportion of Norfolk’s population living in an urban setting has markedly increased in three districts since 2010. In Breckland, 43.3% live in an urban setting in 2017 compared with 33.7% in 2010; in King’s Lynn & West Norfolk, 42.4% live in an urban setting compared with 33.4% in 2010; and in South Norfolk, 35.2% live in an urban setting compared with 22.3% in 2010. Great Yarmouth also has a marked change in its population, but conversely with a shift in the other direction, with 34.0% living in a rural setting, compared with 28.2% in 2010.


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Table 4.2: Norfolk urban and rural population, mid-2017

Rural Urban Total

Local authority area Number % Number %

Breckland 78,500 56.7 60,100 43.3 138,600

Broadland 62,700 48.8 65,900 51.2 128,600

Great Yarmouth 33,800 34.0 65,600 66.0 99,400

King's Lynn & West Norfolk 87,500 57.6 64,400 42.4 151,900

North Norfolk 91,400 87.8 12,700 12.2 104,100

Norwich 0 0.0 140,400 100.0 140,400

South Norfolk 87,800 64.8 47,700 35.2 135,500

Norfolk 441,700 49.2 456,700 50.8 898,400

Note: Figures may not equal due to rounding Source: ONS mid-2017 population estimates; and ONS population density and land area measures 2014

Figure 4.2: Norfolk’s rural and urban population, mid-2017

Source: ONS mid-2017 population estimates; and ONS population density and land area measures 2014


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4.3 Population by age There are some differences in the age profiles of Norfolk’s urban and rural population, and these should influence the decisions we make about access to services and resource allocation. Figure 4.3 shows that middle aged (45-64) and older people (65+) are more likely to be found in rural as opposed to urban areas. The opposite is true of children aged 0-15, younger adults aged 16-29 and adults aged 30-44. It is also worth noting that almost 60% of people aged 65+ live in rural areas. There has been a shift in the county’s urban/rural split by broad age group over recent years. The estimated proportion of Norfolk’s population living in an urban setting has increased since 2010 for each of the broad age groups.

Figure 4.3: Rural and urban population of Norfolk by age, mid-2017

Note: the sum of all the bars is 100 per cent of the Norfolk population Source: ONS mid-2017 population estimates; and ONS population density and land area measures 2014

There is variation at local authority area level. Figure 4.4 shows that the 45-64 and 65 and over age groups are typically greater in number in the rural parts of each area than the urban parts. Figure 4.5 shows the large number of 16-29-year olds in Norwich, which is entirely urban. That is the main reason why there are more people in this age group in Norfolk in urban than in rural areas.


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Figure 4.4: Age structure of rural areas, mid-2017


Figure 4.5: Age structure of urban areas, mid-2017



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The information in this section shows that generally there are marked differences between Norfolk’s urban and rural populations when we look at broad age groups. This type of information should influence the decisions we make about access to services and resource allocation. But we also know that not everyone classed as ‘older’, for example, needs the same level of assistance or care. Chapter 5 about deprivation and poverty goes on to identify further differences across the county that could affect the way services are delivered.


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5 Deprivation and poverty in Norfolk Issues related to deprivation and poverty are often intergenerational and can become entrenched through an ongoing cycle of inequality and disadvantage. This can often lead to low educational achievement, poor health, economic inactivity and failure to reach full potential in life. Tackling these issues and breaking the cycle of disadvantage should therefore have important benefits for future generations, who will then experience greater opportunities.

5.1 Income

The average median8 annual gross pay for all Norfolk employees was around £21,500 in 2018 (provisional data) – an increase of 7.3% on the previous year (Table 5.1). This compares with higher annual gross pay for the East of England of around £25,300 and for England of around £24,300 in 2018.9 Over the last year, Norfolk’s pay gap has narrowed, compared with national pay. In 2018, South Norfolk, Broadland and Breckland have higher than Norfolk average pay, with North Norfolk having the lowest average pay in Norfolk; although data for Great Yarmouth is unavailable. Breckland has had the highest average pay increase (proportionately) in the county, compared with the previous year, with North Norfolk having the lowest increase; although data for Great Yarmouth and Norwich is unavailable. Table 5.1: Annual median gross pay for all employees, 2018 (provisional data)

Area Median Gross annual pay (£)

Annual percentage change

Breckland 21,762 13.6 Broadland 23,592 8.7 Great Yarmouth estimate unreliable estimate unreliable King's Lynn & West Norfolk 20,560 5.8 North Norfolk 19,990 2.9 Norwich 21,452 estimate unreliable South Norfolk 24,707 11.5 Norfolk 21,542 7.3 East 25,296 2.8 England 24,298 2.3 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) 2018, ONS – Table 8.7a

5.2 Deprivation indices

The English Indices of Deprivation 2015 (ID2015) published by CLG identifies relative deprivation using a wide range of indicators. The ID2015 contains a series of domains, indices and a multiple index, designed to measure different aspects of deprivation at

8The median is the value below which 50% of jobs fall. It is ONS's preferred measure of average earnings as it is less affected by a relatively small number of very high earners and the skewed distribution of earnings. It therefore gives a better indication of typical pay than the mean. 9 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) 2018 (provisional), ONS – Table 8.7a https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/placeofresidencebylocalauthorityashetable8

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/placeofresidencebylocalauthorityashetable8

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/placeofresidencebylocalauthorityashetable8


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LSOA level. It is important to remember that not all deprived people live in deprived areas and not everyone living in a deprived area is deprived. Variations within local authorities may be at least as significant as variations between them. These are relative measures of deprivation as it is impossible to tell whether a change in an area’s score compared with previous indices - and hence its rank – is a real change in the level of deprivation in an area or due to the scores of other areas going up or down. Headline analysis of the ID2015 shows10:

• Norfolk is the 88th most relatively deprived out of 152 upper tier local authorities where 1 represents the most relatively deprived. This is an increase in relative deprivation compared to 2010 when Norfolk was the 97th most deprived upper tier local authority.

• 7.6% of the LSOAs (neighbourhoods) in Norfolk are in the most deprived 10% nationally. In Norfolk this affects approximately 68,200 people or 7.9% of the Norfolk population.

• The most relatively deprived domains for Norfolk are ‘Education’ (31st) and ‘Barriers to housing and services’ (44th).

• The least relatively deprived domain for Norfolk is Crime (142nd).

• In Norfolk, Great Yarmouth has the highest proportion of its LSOAs included in the most deprived 10% of LSOAs nationally (16 of the 61 LSOAs for Great Yarmouth, 26%). On this measure Great Yarmouth is the 20th most deprived lower tier local authority nationally.

• Norwich is included in the top 10 lower tier local authorities with the largest percentage point increase in the proportion of neighbourhoods now in the relatively most deprived decile for 2015 compared to 2010.

• Norfolk has broad ranges of rankings across all the domains. Education, Skills and training, Barriers to housing and services and Living environment showing ranks relatively more deprived. Health Deprivation and Disability, Crime and Living Environment with rankings relatively less deprived. Crime domain shows the least relatively deprived median and Education, skills and training the relatively most deprived median.

• Norwich is included in the 10% of local authorities ranked by the ‘extent’ summary measure for 2015 and was not included in 2010, indicating that Norwich is relatively more deprived in the 2015 index compared with 2010.

Figure 5.1 shows Norfolk neighbourhoods (LSOAs) by their national deprivation quintile classification. The most deprived areas in Norfolk (darker areas on the map) are still concentrated in the urban areas of Great Yarmouth, Norwich, King’s Lynn and Thetford. However, there are rural areas in King’s Lynn & West Norfolk district, the market towns of Watton, Swaffham and Dereham and the coastal areas of Cromer and north of Great Yarmouth that also fall into the most deprived quintile nationally.

10 Norfolk County Council The English Indices of Deprivation 2015 – A County summary, LSOA analysis and comparison of change, November 2015


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Figure 5.1: national deprivation quintile for Norfolk LSOAs Index of Multiple Deprivation, 2015

Source: Norfolk Public Health, 2015 (based on English Indices of Deprivation ID2015)

Figure 5.2 shows how the relative deprivation of LSOAs by national deprivation decile in Norfolk has changed between 2010 and 2015. Of Norfolk’s 538 LSOAs, 237 LSOAs have moved to a more deprived decile (darker areas on the map), 254 LSOAs have remained in the same decile and 47 have moved to a less deprived decile. This is reflected in the movement of Norfolk overall to become relatively more deprived compared to other local authorities. The Market towns of Watton, Swaffham and Dereham as well as coastal areas of Cromer and to the north of Great Yarmouth have moved into the most deprived quintile nationally for overall IMD. Previously the areas in the most deprived quintile were concentrated in the urban centres of Great Yarmouth, Norwich, Kings Lynn and Thetford.


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Figure 5.2: Relative movement of LSOAs across Norfolk between deciles comparing IMD 2015 with IMD 2010

Source: Norfolk Public Health, 2015 (based on English Indices of Deprivation ID2010 and ID2015) For more detailed information and analysis of deprivation and inequalities in Norfolk, click here to go to Norfolk Insight11 and click here to go to the CLG website12.

5.3 Child poverty

Research shows that children who grow up in poverty face a greater risk of having poor health, being exposed to crime and failing to reach their full potential in life. With the associated costs of tackling these issues, child poverty can impact significantly on public finances as well as having a negative effect on individuals and communities. Tackling child poverty will improve the experiences of many children, who will then experience greater opportunities and social inclusion. As a result, these children should have better outcomes, particularly health and educational attainment, in childhood and beyond. Breaking the cycle of disadvantage should therefore have important benefits for future generations.

11 http://www.norfolkinsight.org.uk/deprivation/ 12 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-indices-of-deprivation-2015

http://www.norfolkinsight.org.uk/deprivation/

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-indices-of-deprivation-2015


https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-indices-of-deprivation-2015


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The Children in Low-Income Families Local Measure is the proportion of children living in families in receipt of out-of-work (means-tested) benefits or in receipt of tax credits where their reported income is less than 60% of UK median income. This measure provides a broad proxy for the relative low-income measure as used in the Child Poverty Act 2010 and enables analysis at a local level. The local child poverty measure includes all dependent children under the age of 20. Nationally, compared with 2015, there was an average increase in the estimated rate of children (all dependent children under 20) living in low-income families from 16.6% to 17.0% in 2016 across England. For 2016, the rate of children (all dependent children under 20) living in low-income families for Norfolk was unchanged at 14.8%, compared with 2015. For 2016, this equates to an estimated 24,830 Norfolk children - about 21,670 of these children are aged under 16. Norfolk’s rate is better than the England average of 17.0%, but worse than the East of England regional average of 13.9%. Except for Great Yarmouth, the level of children living in low-income families has increased (worsened) over the year for each of Norfolk’s districts.13 It is important to remember that the overall figure for Norfolk masks hotspots in the county where child poverty is a more serious issue. Norwich, Great Yarmouth and King’s Lynn & West Norfolk each have higher rates of children living in low-income families than the Norfolk average, as detailed at Table 5.2. Norwich has more than 6,000 children living in low-income families, which is the highest number of all of the Norfolk local authority areas. Even in the area with the lowest rate (Broadland 8.7%), there are still around 2,040 children living in low-income families. Table 5.2: Children (all dependent children under 20) living in low-income families (estimated), 2014 to 2016

Area 2014 2015 2016

Number % Number % Number %

Breckland 4,000 15.2% 3,210 12.2% 3,440 13.1%

Broadland 2,400 10.1% 1,920 8.1% 2,040 8.7%

Great Yarmouth 5,190 25.0% 4,720 22.8% 4,120 19.9%

King's Lynn & West Norfolk 5,140 17.5% 4,410 15.1% 4,430 15.2%

North Norfolk 2,700 16.4% 2,190 13.5% 2,260 13.9%

Norwich 6,940 26.3% 5,930 22.2% 6,020 22.2%

South Norfolk 2,940 11.8% 2,460 9.9% 2,550 10.2%

Norfolk 29,300 17.4% 24,820 14.8% 24,830 14.8%

East of England 208,000 16.1% 174,900 13.6% 178,800 13.9%

England 2,315,800 19.9% 1,929,300 16.6% 1,974,000 17.0% Note: Columns may not equal due to rounding Source: HMRC Child Poverty 2016 statistics

13 HMRC Child Poverty 2016 statistics – https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/personal-tax-credits-children-in-low-income-families-local-measure-2016-snapshot-as-at-31-august-2016

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/personal-tax-credits-children-in-low-income-families-local-measure-2016-snapshot-as-at-31-august-2016

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/personal-tax-credits-children-in-low-income-families-local-measure-2016-snapshot-as-at-31-august-2016


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There will also be variations within local authority areas and within LSOAs, so that smaller pockets of child poverty in areas may not be apparent from the figures. More information is held on Norfolk Insight – click here to go to the child poverty data on Norfolk Insight.14

5.4 Fuel poverty

A household is considered to be fuel poor if it has higher than typical energy costs and would be left with a disposable income below the poverty line15 if it spent the required money to meet those costs. It captures the fact that fuel poverty is distinct from general poverty: not all poor households are fuel poor, and some households would not normally be considered poor but could be pushed into fuel poverty if they have high energy costs. Fuel poverty is therefore an overlapping problem of households having a low income and facing high energy costs.16 In 2016, it is estimated that there were around 42,300 Norfolk households in fuel poverty, representing 10.8% of all Norfolk households. This is higher than the East of England region average of 9.4%, but lower than the England average of 11.1% (Table 5.3).17 This represents a worsening picture for Norfolk on the previous year’s estimate, with around 5,900 more households (or 16.2% more households) estimated to be fuel poor compared with the previous year. Table 5.3: Fuel poor households (estimated), 2015 to 2016

Area 2015 2016

Increase from 2015 to 2016

Number % Number % Number %

Breckland 5,370 9.5 5,930 10.3 560 10.4

Broadland 3,620 6.6 5,000 8.9 1,380 38.1

Great Yarmouth 4,280 9.8 5,640 12.8 1,360 31.8

King's Lynn & West Norfolk 6,570 10.1 7,300 11.0 730 11.1

North Norfolk 5,360 11.3 5,360 11.1 0 0.0

Norwich 6,150 9.9 7,800 12.3 1,650 26.8

South Norfolk 5,060 9.3 5,270 9.5 210 4.2

Norfolk 36,400 9.5 42,300 10.8 5,900 16.2

East of England - 7.8 - 9.4 - -

England - 11.0 - 11.1 - - Note: Columns may not equal due to rounding Source: Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy 2016 statistics

14 http://www.norfolkinsight.org.uk/deprivation/ 15 The poverty line (income poverty) is defined as an equivalised disposable income of less than 60% of the national median. 16 Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy Annual Fuel Poverty Statistics Report, 2018 (2016 data) 17 Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy 2016 statistics - https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/fuel-poverty-sub-regional-statistics#2015-statistics




https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/fuel-poverty-sub-regional-statistics#2015-statistics


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Great Yarmouth, Norwich, North Norfolk, and King’s Lynn & West Norfolk have fuel poverty rates that are worse (higher) than the county average of 10.8%. Except for North Norfolk, the level of households in fuel poverty has increased (worsened) over the year for each of Norfolk’s districts (Table 5.3). At 12.8%, Great Yarmouth has the highest proportion of households in fuel poverty in the county. Norwich has the highest increase (1,650 more) in the number of households in fuel poverty compared with the previous year, although Broadland has the highest proportional increase (38.1%) compared with the previous year. There will also be variations within local authority areas and within LSOAs, so that smaller pockets of fuel poverty in areas may not be apparent from the figures. More information is held on Norfolk Insight – click here to go to the fuel poverty data on Norfolk Insight.18

18 http://www.norfolkinsight.org.uk/deprivation/





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6 Health and wellbeing in Norfolk This section gives a broad picture of the key health and wellbeing issues for Norfolk and shows how the county compares with the England average on a number of important health indicators. Much of this section is based on Public Health England (PHE) Health Profiles.19

6.1 Children’s and young people’s health

Under 18 conceptions Most teenage pregnancies are unplanned and around half end in an abortion. As well as it being an avoidable experience for the young woman, abortions represent an avoidable cost to the NHS. And while for some young women having a child when young can represent a positive turning point in their lives, for many more teenagers bringing up a child is incredibly difficult and often results in poor outcomes for both the teenage parent and the child, in terms of the baby’s health, the mother’s emotional health and wellbeing and the likelihood of both the parent and child living in long-term poverty. Conceptions by girls aged under 18 years have reduced in Norfolk every year from 2009 to 2014, but there was a slight increase in 2015 to 295, and then a decrease in 2016 to 285. Norfolk’s rate (20.9 per 1,000 females aged 15 to 17) is not significantly different to the England average (18.8). Smoking status at time of delivery Smoking in pregnancy is harmful for the mother and for the unborn child. Carbon monoxide enters the mother’s blood, together with a number of other cigarette chemicals, and limits the oxygen that reaches the baby. There are a number of poor birth outcomes associated with smoking during pregnancy including an increased risk of premature births, still births and low birth weight. The impact of being exposed to smoke in utero may not be confined to the prenatal and birth period but has also been linked to poorer growth and physical development after birth and during childhood and into adulthood. For Norfolk, despite a mainly reducing trend over recent years, 13.5 women out of every 100 maternities were smoking at the time of delivery in 2017/18, which is significantly worse than the England average (10.8%). Breastfeeding initiation The NHS recommends that mothers exclusively breastfeed their baby for the first 26 weeks of life followed by a combination of breast milk and other foods. Research has shown that breastfeeding is associated with positive health outcomes for both mother and baby in early years and later life. For the child, breastfeeding may lead to a reduced number of hospitalisations for gastroenteritis and lower respiratory tract infections and reduce the baby’s risk of developing ear infections. In addition, there is evidence to suggest that breastfed babies may experience benefits that continue into later life, including being less likely to be overweight or obese. During 2014/15, the level of breastfeeding initiation within 48 hours of birth in Norfolk was 77.4%, which is significantly better than the England average (74.3%). Norfolk has experienced an increasing trend in the level of breastfeeding initiation over recent years, but with a slight reduction in the most recent year where reliable data is available (2014/15).

19 http://fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles

http://fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles


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Excess weight in children Obesity in childhood is a significant issue as it is linked to adult obesity, which is a major cause of cardiovascular disease and diabetes. There is a strong case for early intervention in helping people to maintain a healthy weight as evidence suggests that future lifestyles are determined by early life experiences. Food preferences, activity levels and leisure activities as adults are all influenced by parenting and the home environment in the first years of life. Every year all children at Reception Class (age five to six) and Year 6 (age 10 to 11) have their height and weight measured under the National Child Measurement Programme. The latest data from 2017/18 shows that for Norfolk children (aged 10 to 11), 18.2% of children (or one in five children) were obese, which is significantly better than the England average (20.1%). Over recent years, Norfolk’s level of childhood obesity peaked in 2011/12, and since then has levelled off.

6.2 Adults’ health and lifestyle

Smoking prevalence and smoking related deaths Smoking is the most important cause of preventable ill health and premature mortality in the UK. Smoking is a major risk factor for many diseases, such as lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and heart disease. It is also associated with cancers in other organs, including lip, mouth, throat, bladder, kidney, stomach, liver and cervix. For Norfolk over recent years, prevalence of smoking in adults aged 18 and over peaked in 2011 and since then has gradually decreased in line with the England average, except for in the most recent year where Norfolk’s prevalence increased. For 2017, smoking prevalence is 13.8% for Norfolk, compared with 14.9% for England. The smoking prevalence amongst people classed as routine and manual workers is higher than in the general population. For Norfolk, the proportion of these people who smoke has decreased from 33.3% in 2011 to 23.6% in 2017, although these rates are not significantly different from the national average (25.7%). Norfolk’s rate of smoking related deaths has declined over recent years to 2012-14, followed by an increase and then a further period of decline. The current level for 2015-17 has increased to 238.6 per 100,000 population, which remains significantly better than the England average (262.6). This means that around 4,570 people died from smoking related illnesses in Norfolk during the period 2015 to 2017. Excess weight in adults Being overweight or obese increases the risk of a wide range of diseases including circulatory diseases, Type 2 diabetes and various cancers. For Norfolk, during 2016-17 the proportion of the adult population classified as overweight or obese is estimated at 62.2% (or two in three people), which is not significantly different to the England average (61.3%). Physical activity Physical inactivity is the fourth leading risk factor for global mortality accounting for six per cent of deaths globally. People who have a physically active lifestyle have a 20-35% lower risk of cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease and stroke compared


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to those who have a sedentary lifestyle. Regular physical activity is also associated with a reduced risk of diabetes, obesity, osteoporosis and colon/breast cancer and with improved mental health. In older adults, physical activity is associated with increased functional capacities. The Chief Medical Officer (CMO) currently recommends that adults undertake a minimum of 150 minutes (2.5 hours) of moderate physical activity per week, or 75 minutes of vigorous physical activity per week or an equivalent combination of the two (MVPA), in bouts of 10 minutes or more. The overall amount of activity is more important than the type, intensity or frequency. For Norfolk in 2016/17, 66.5% of adults achieved recommended level of physical activity per week, which is similar to the England average (66.0%). However, this means that three in ten people do not take enough physical exercise to benefit their health. Personal well-being Personal well-being is part of the wider Measuring National Well-being (MNW) Programme at the ONS, which aims to provide accepted and trusted measures of the nation’s well-being. The MNW work is part of an initiative, both in the UK and internationally, to look beyond traditional headline economic growth figures to establish progress on how we are doing as individuals, as communities and as a nation, and how sustainable this is for the future. The measures include both standard objective measures, such as income and health, and people’s own views about their lives. For 2017/18, Norfolk people continued to rate more highly than the England average ratings on questions about their life satisfaction; the extent to which they feel things in life are worthwhile; and their happiness. Norfolk people also continued to rate their anxiety level as lower than the England average.20

6.3 Disease and poor health

Diabetes Diabetic complications (including cardiovascular, kidney, foot and eye diseases) result in considerable morbidity and have a detrimental impact on quality of life. Type 2 diabetes (approximately 90% of diagnosed cases) is partially preventable – it can be prevented or delayed by lifestyle changes (exercise, weight loss, healthy eating). Earlier detection of Type 2 diabetes followed by effective treatment reduces the risk of developing diabetic complications. For the updated indicator (estimated diabetes diagnosis rate), a value close to 100% indicates a small gap between the observed prevalence and estimated prevalence and indicates that a system is good at proactively identifying people with hitherto undiagnosed diabetes. For Norfolk, over the past four years, there has been an improving trend in diabetes diagnoses. In 2018, the rate of diabetes diagnoses (aged 17+) is 75.5%, which is not significantly different to the England average.

20 ONS Personal Wellbeing in the UK, 2017/18 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/datasets/headlineestimatesofpersonalwellbeing

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/datasets/headlineestimatesofpersonalwellbeing

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/datasets/headlineestimatesofpersonalwellbeing


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Hip fractures Hip fracture is a debilitating condition – only one in three sufferers return to their former levels of independence and one in three ends up leaving their own home and moving to long-term care. Hip fractures are almost as common and costly as strokes and the incidence is rising. For Norfolk during 2017/18, there were almost 1,300 emergency admissions to hospitals for people aged 65 and over as a result of hip fractures, which is an increase of around 60 on the previous year. This equates to a rate of 578 per 100,000 population, which is not significantly different to the England average. Self-harm and suicide Self-harm is defined as an intentional act of self-poisoning or self-injury irrespective of the type of motivation or degree of suicidal intent. Self-harm is an expression of personal distress and there are varied reasons for a person to harm themselves. There is a significant and persistent risk of future suicide following an episode of self harm. For Norfolk in 2017/18, there were around 1,400 emergency hospital stays for self-harm, which is a decrease of around 60 on the previous year. This equates to a rate of 170.1 per 100,000 population, which is significantly better than the England average (185.5). Over the past decade, Norfolk’s suicide rate has been similar to the England average, although for the period 2012-14 to 2014-2016, Norfolk’s rate was significantly worse. For 2015-2017, Norfolk’s rate is 10.6 per 100,000 population compared with 9.6 for England. This means that during the three-year period 2015 to 2017, in Norfolk around 250 people killed themselves. Alcohol-related conditions Alcohol consumption is a contributing factor to hospital admissions and deaths from a diverse range of conditions. Alcohol misuse is estimated to cost the NHS about £3.5 billion per year and society as a whole, £21 billion annually. For Norfolk in 2017/18, there were around 6,150 admissions to hospital where the primary diagnosis is an alcohol-related condition, or a secondary diagnosis is an alcohol-related external cause; this is an increase on the previous year of around 130. This equates to a rate of 660 per 100,000 population, which is significantly worse than the England average (632). Dementia Dementia is most common in older people and can include a decline in memory, reasoning and communication skills, and a gradual loss of skills needed to carry out daily activities, becoming worse over time. People with dementia often require substantial amounts of care, particularly social care. Over the past four years, Norfolk’s rate of people (all ages) with dementia recorded on GP practice registers (as a proportion of the people registered at each GP practice) has remained constant at 0.9%. Norfolk’s rate has been consistently higher than the England average over this period. This indicator is a measure of recorded prevalence and not actual prevalence and therefore under-reports groups who are less likely to be registered with a GP, such as ethnic minority populations, homeless people, migrants and travellers, as well as those


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who are registered with a GP but have yet to receive a diagnosis. It is estimated that for Norfolk, around three in five people with dementia have been diagnosed21.

6.4 Life expectancy and causes of death

Life expectancy Life expectancy at birth gives the average number of years a person would expect to live based on contemporary mortality rates. For Norfolk, life expectancy for males is 80.1 years and for females is 83.8 years, with both being significantly better than the England average. Life expectancy is 7.0 years lower for males and 4.5 years lower for females in the most deprived areas of Norfolk than in the least deprived areas. Living a healthy life is as important as living a long life. ‘Healthy life expectancy’ is the average number of years that a person can expect to live in full health. For Norfolk, average healthy life expectancy at birth for males is 63.1 years and for females is 62.7 years, with both being similar to the England averages. But this means that in Norfolk, males are living in poor health for an average of 17 years and females for 21 years. Excess winter deaths Excess Winter Deaths Index (EWD Index) is the excess winter deaths measured as the ratio of extra deaths from all causes that occur in the winter months compared with the expected number of deaths, based on the average of the number of non-winter deaths. On this basis, during the 2014-2017 period, there were around 1,750 excess winter deaths in Norfolk. This equates to a ratio of 18.8, which is not significantly different to the England average (21.1). The number of excess winter deaths depends on the temperature and the level of disease in the population as well as other factors, such as how well-equipped people are to cope with lower temperatures. Most excess winter deaths are due to circulatory and respiratory diseases, and the majority occur amongst the elderly population. Infant mortality Infant mortality is an indicator of the general health of an entire population. It reflects the relationship between causes of infant mortality and determinants of population health such as economic, social and environmental conditions. Deaths occurring during the first 28 days of life (the neonatal period) are considered to reflect the health and care of both mother and new-born. For Norfolk, during the three-year period 2015 to 2017, there were around 90 deaths in infants aged under one year. This equates to a rate of 3.2 per 1,000 live births, which is similar to the England average (3.9). Norfolk’s rate has decreased (improved) over the past three years, compared with England’s which has remained consistent. Cardiovascular disease Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the major causes of death in under 75s in England. Over the past decade, Norfolk has experienced a generally decreasing trend in the rate of mortality from all CVDs (including heart disease and stroke) in persons less than 75 years, per 100,000 population. During that period, Norfolk’s rate has continued to be significantly better than the England average. For the three-year period 2015 to 2017, there have been around 1,730 deaths in Norfolk due to CVD.

21 Norfolk JSNA Briefing Document on Dementia (November 2016)


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Cancer Cancer is the highest cause of death in England in under 75s. Over the past decade, Norfolk has experienced a generally decreasing trend in the rate of mortality from all cancers in persons less than 75 years, per 100,000 population. During that period, Norfolk’s rate has continued to be significantly better than the England average, except for the latest period which is not significantly different to the England average. For the three-year period 2015 to 2017, there have been around 3,550 deaths in Norfolk due to cancer.


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7 Crime and disorder levels in Norfolk Crime is an inherently difficult phenomenon to measure as some crime goes unreported or is under reported; victims can be unaware of some crimes such as fraud; and there are crimes where there may be no direct victims. While the two main statistical series on crime (the Crime Survey for England and Wales and the police) add to the understanding of crime, neither series produces, nor can they ever produce, a count of total crime. Crimes are recorded by police in the year they are reported, and this may not necessarily be in the year the offence occurred – this means that historical crimes are potentially recorded long after the offence, for example over recent years there has been an increase in recorded sexual offences nationally due to historical sexual offences being reported. The definition of crime itself is not straightforward. While the statute provides a definition of what behaviour would constitute a crime in law, the public perception of what is criminal may differ. For example, any physical violence between individuals is likely to be considered a crime by interpretation of the law. However, where this occurs on a sports field or amounts to pushing and shoving between children at a playground, it might be that neither victim nor offender (even if such a distinction could be drawn) would consider the action to be criminal.

7.1 National context

Over recent decades, there has been a fall in overall levels of crime, a trend that now looks to be stabilising. However, this hides variation in different crime types. Over the last year, there have been a rise in some types of theft and in lower-volume but higher-harm types of violence. This is balanced by a fall in the high-volume offence of computer misuse. There has been a continued rise in the number of offences involving knives or sharp instruments, with police recording 16% more offences this year compared with last year. The latest rise of 2% in recorded offences involving firearms was smaller than previously seen; this included a decrease in less serious firearm offences, whereas more serious firearm offences showed continued increases; some of these increases are likely to reflect improvements in recording. The number of homicides recorded by the police showed a fourth consecutive rise, following a long-term decline, although homicide remains rare. Latest estimates from the CSEW showed a 17% increase in vehicle-related thefts compared with the previous year, which is consistent with rises seen in the number of such offences recorded by the police. The number of burglary offences recorded by the police has increased by 6% compared with the previous year. The number of robberies recorded by the police also increased by 30% in the latest year; while recording improvements are likely to have contributed to this rise, this may reflect a real change; similar to offences involving weapons, these offences are disproportionately concentrated in London and other metropolitan areas.22

22 Crime in England and Wales: year ending March 2018 (July 2018). ONS Statistical Bulletin London https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingmarch2018#whats-happened-to-the-volume-of-crime-recorded-by-the-police

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingmarch2018#whats-happened-to-the-volume-of-crime-recorded-by-the-police

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingmarch2018#whats-happened-to-the-volume-of-crime-recorded-by-the-police


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7.2 Local picture of crime and disorder

For most people, Norfolk remains a very safe place. It continues to have one of the lowest crime rates in England, with the level of crime and disorder in most places being well below the national average. Police recorded crime Overall, the total number of crimes recorded by police (excluding fraud23) in Norfolk for the 12 months ending March 2018 was around 56,200 (Table 7.1) – this represents an 11.6% increase on the previous year’s figure (around 50,400 crimes recorded), compared with an increase of 12.3% for the East of England region and 12.8% for England. The rate of total recorded offences per 1,000 population for Norfolk is 63.1, compared with 71.8 for the East of England region and 83.0 for England.24 In Norfolk, there have been around 17,600 anti-social behaviour (ASB) incidents recorded by the police over the year, representing a decrease compared with the 21,100 incidents recorded during 2016/17. Norfolk’s rate of ASB per 1,000 population is 19.8, compared with 24.8 for the East of England region and 27.9 for England. Over the 12 months to March 2018, the numbers of police recorded crimes by offence group for Norfolk have fallen in terms of shoplifting (decrease of 5.8%); theft from the person (decrease of 4.0%); and bicycle theft (decrease of 1.8%). Increases in the numbers of police recorded crimes for Norfolk for the same period include stalking and harassment (increase of 37.6%); public order offences (increase of 28.9%); sexual offences (increase of 25.9%); violence against the person (increase of 17.5%); violence with injury (increase of 16.0%); vehicle offences (increase of 14.6%); possession of weapons offences (increase of 14.0%); all other theft offences (increase of 13.8%); violence without injury (increase of 12.3%); robbery (increase of 11.0%); burglary (increase of 10.0%); miscellaneous crimes against society (increase of 6.3%); theft offences (increase of 6.1%); criminal damage and arson (increase of 3.1%); and drug offences (increase of 1.2%). It should be noted that increases in the numbers of police recorded crimes reflect a combination of factors, which vary for different crime types, that include: continuing improvements to recording processes and practices; more victims reporting crime (including for historical offences); and genuine increases in crime. Table 7.1 shows the total police recorded crime for Norfolk by local authority area for the last two years, along with the percentage change and the rate per 1,000 residents for 2017/18. For Norfolk as a whole, and for each of the seven districts, total police recorded crime has increased in the 12 months to March 2018. Breckland, North Norfolk, Great Yarmouth and King’s Lynn & West Norfolk have each experienced

23 Currently, offences of fraud are excluded from subnational breakdowns of police recorded crime. Action Fraud have taken over the recording of fraud offences on behalf of individual police forces. In the year ending March 2018 Action Fraud recorded 277,561 offences of fraud against victims living in England or Wales. This is equivalent to a rate of 5.0 offences of fraud recorded per 1,000 head of population by Action Fraud. 24 ONS Recorded Crime Data Tables, March 2018 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/datasets/recordedcrimedatabycommunitysafetypartnershiparea

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/datasets/recordedcrimedatabycommunitysafetypartnershiparea

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/datasets/recordedcrimedatabycommunitysafetypartnershiparea


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higher percentage increases than the Norfolk average of 11.6%. Norwich and Great Yarmouth continue to have higher crime rates (per 1,000 residents) than the Norfolk average of 63.1, although ONS advises that caution needs to be taken when considering crime rates of city centre areas, due to the often small population and household levels in these areas. The high reported crime rates in city centres are partly due to the use of small resident population and household figures as the denominator of the crime rate. The 'transient population' that migrates into these areas on a daily basis, either for work or leisure, will not be reflected in the resident population figures. Table 7.1: Total police recorded crime, by number and rate per 1,000 residents for Norfolk by local authority area, year ending March 2017 and March 2018

Local authority area 2016/17

2017/18

% change 2016/17

to 2017/18

Recorded crime rate per

1,000 population,

2017/18

Breckland 6,357 7,222 13.6 52.7

Broadland 4,118 4,508 9.5 35.4

Great Yarmouth 8,406 9,438 12.3 95.3

King's Lynn & West Norfolk 7,727 8,657 12.0 57.0

North Norfolk 3,428 3,888 13.4 37.5

Norwich 15,530 17,254 11.1 123.4

South Norfolk 4,828 5,268 9.1 39.6

Norfolk 50,394 56,235 11.6 63.1

East of England - - 12.3 71.8

England - - 12.8 83.0 Source: ONS Recorded Crime Data Tables, March 2018

Crime Severity Score The ONS has developed a weighted measure of crimes recorded by the police; the “Crime Severity Score”. Existing official statistics on police recorded crime data are presented as counts of the number of offences or as a rate of offences recorded per head of population, broken into broad offence categories. However, even within a broad category, the counts take no account of the different levels of severity of the crimes within a category, or the demands these will place on the police. This new measure of crime aims to address this by taking into account both the volume and the severity of offences, by weighting offences differently. By “severity”, the intention is to reflect the relative harm of an offence to society and the likely demands on the police. For example, it would be expected that the police response to a serious violent crime would be more resource intensive than their response to an incident of criminal damage. It is important to bear in mind that, as with other measures based on police recorded crime, the Crime Severity Score is affected by variation in recording practices over time and between areas.25 For the year ending September 2018, Norfolk’s Crime

25 ONS Research outputs: developing a Crime Severity Score for England and Wales using data on crimes recorded by the police (June 2017) https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/researchoutputsdevelopingacrimeseverityscoreforenglandandwalesusingdataoncrimesrecordedbythepolice

https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/researchoutputsdevelopingacrimeseverityscoreforenglandandwalesusingdataoncrimesrecordedbythepolice

https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/researchoutputsdevelopingacrimeseverityscoreforenglandandwalesusingdataoncrimesrecordedbythepolice


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Severity Score is 10.3, which is better (lower) than the scores for the East of England region at 11.4 and England at 13.7. Norfolk’s score has increased (10% increase) more slowly than the region and nationally when compared with the previous year, indicating that the types of crimes committed in Norfolk are increasing in seriousness at a slower rate than regionally and nationally. Norwich has the highest Crime Severity Score (19.4) in the county, followed by Great Yarmouth (15.3) and King’s Lynn & West Norfolk (9.5), with Broadland (5.6) having the lowest score. King’s Lynn & West Norfolk has the greatest increase in score compared with the previous year (18% increase), followed by Great Yarmouth (17% increase), with Breckland having the lowest increase – in fact, a decrease of four per cent. Police and Crime Commissioner Following elections in 2012, Norfolk had its first Police and Crime Commissioner (PCC) who replaced the police authority. PCCs aim to cut crime and deliver an effective and efficient police service within their force area. Their role is to be the voice of the people and hold the police to account, effectively making them answerable to the communities they serve. This is a fundamental change to the previous crime and disorder landscape, affecting not only policing but all criminal justice agencies, local government, health services and the voluntary and community sector in Norfolk. The PCC’s responsibilities include:26

• Setting objectives for tackling crime and disorder in Norfolk through a Police and Crime Plan.

• Ensuring Norfolk has an efficient and effective police force. The PCC hires (and, if necessary, fires) the Chief Constable and holds him/her to account for running the force. The PCC also sets Norfolk’s policing priorities and monitors performance against those priorities.

• Setting the budget for policing the county and determining how much is contributed through Council Tax. The PCC also scrutinises how the police use their budget to meet Norfolk’s policing priorities.

• Bringing together Norfolk’s community safety and criminal justice partners to make sure local priorities are joined up.

• Commissioning services which contribute to the objectives within the Police and Crime Plan.

• Providing support services for victims and witnesses of crime.

• Getting communities involved in keeping Norfolk safe and being the voice of the people when it comes to policing and criminal justice in Norfolk.

26Office of the Police & Crime Commissioner for Norfolk - http://www.norfolk-pcc.gov.uk/

http://www.norfolk-pcc.gov.uk/


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8 Norfolk’s economy Norfolk is arguably the most self-contained labour market in the region, in part due to its peripheral and coastal location, but also due to the distance from other regional cities and the limited connectivity of the transport network. The county covers a vast area of around 551,000 hectares27 and contains several diverse economies, located within rural, urban and coastal environments.

8.1 Structure of the local economy Employment by industry sector Based on the latest estimates for 2017, Table 8.1 shows the number of jobs held by employees by industry sector for Norfolk.28 On this basis, the most significant industry sector in Norfolk, in employment terms, continues to be the health sector, which in 2017 employed 15.7% of employees – this is a higher level than for the region (12.5%) and nationally (12.8%). The next most significant industry sector in employment terms continues to be the retail sector, which in 2017 employed 11.1% of employees – this is a higher level than for the region (10.3%) and nationally (9.5%). The third most significant industry sector in employment terms continues to be the manufacturing sector, which in 2017 employed 9.5% of employees – this is a higher level than for the region (8.0%) and nationally (8.1%). The tourism industry is vital for supporting employment across Norfolk and is especially important in Norwich, along the north Norfolk coast, in the Broads and the east coast resorts of Great Yarmouth and Lowestoft. In 2017, the accommodation & food service sector employed 8.4% of employees – this is a higher level than for the region (6.8%) and nationally (7.4%). Agriculture remains an important industry for Norfolk. In 2017, the agriculture, forestry & fishing sector employed 2.4% of employees – this is a higher level than for the region (1.0%) and nationally (0.6%). Industry sectors where Norfolk employs at a lower level than regionally and nationally include the business administration & support service sector; the professional, scientific & technical sector; and the information & communication sector.

27 ONS Open Geography Portal 28 ONS Business Register and Employment Survey, 2017 (from Nomis)


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Table 8.1: Employee jobs by industry, 2017

Industry Norfolk

(numbers) Norfolk

(%)

East of England

(%)

England (%)

Agriculture, forestry & fishing (A) 9,000 2.4 1.0 0.6

Mining, quarrying & utilities (B, D and E) 4,000 1.1 0.9 1.2

Manufacturing (C) 35,000 9.5 8.0 8.1

Construction (F) 19,000 5.1 5.5 4.8

Motor trades (Part G) 8,000 2.2 2.1 1.7

Wholesale (Part G) 14,000 3.8 4.5 4.0

Retail (Part G) 41,000 11.1 10.3 9.5

Transport & storage (including postal) (H) 13,000 3.5 4.9 4.8

Accommodation & food services (I) 31,000 8.4 6.8 7.4

Information & communication (J) 7,000 1.9 3.6 4.5

Financial & insurance (K) 13,000 3.5 2.4 3.5

Property (L) 4,500 1.2 1.5 1.7

Professional, scientific & technical (M) 22,000 6.0 9.2 8.7

Business administration & support services (N) 28,000 7.6 10.4 9.3

Public administration & defence (O) 14,000 3.8 3.0 3.9

Education (P) 33,000 8.9 8.8 9.0

Health (Q) 58,000 15.7 12.5 12.8

Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services (R, S, T and U)

17,000 4.6 4.5 4.5

TOTAL 369,000 100 100 100

Source: ONS Business Register and Employment Survey, 2017 (from Nomis)

Full-time and part-time employment split Norfolk has a relatively high proportion of part-time jobs compared with national and regional averages (Table 8.2), with an average of 35.9% of jobs being part-time compared with the East of England region figure of 34.6% and a national figure of 32.2%. Overall, during the four years to 2015, the proportion of full-time employee jobs in the county had increased. Since then, the position has shifted, with the proportion of part-time employee jobs increasing, most notably for Broadland, Great Yarmouth and South Norfolk.


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Table 8.2: Norfolk full-time and part-time employment split by district, 2017

Area 2017

Full-time % Part-time %

Breckland 68.1 31.9 Broadland 67.3 32.7 Great Yarmouth 59.5 40.5 King’s Lynn & West Norfolk 66.7 33.3 North Norfolk 61.8 38.2 Norwich 62.0 38.0 South Norfolk 63.0 37.0 Norfolk 64.1 35.9 East of England 65.4 34.6 England 67.8 32.2 Source: ONS Business Register and Employment Survey, 2017 (from Nomis)

Occupational structure Figure 8.1 shows Norfolk’s occupational structure from 2008/09 to 2017/1829, for the major occupational groups according to the Standard Occupation Classification 2010 (Soc 2010).30 Major groups 1 to 3 include managers, directors, senior officials, professional occupations and associate professional & technical; major groups 4 and 5 include administrative, secretarial and skilled trade occupations; major groups 6 and 7 include caring, leisure, other service occupations, sales and customer service occupations; and major groups 8 and 9 include process plant & machine operatives and elementary occupations. Figure 8.1: % of persons aged 16+ employed in Norfolk by Standard Occupation Classification, 2008/09 to 2017/18

Source: ONS annual population survey, 2018 (from Nomis)

29 For the period of July to June. 30 Numbers and % are for those of 16+; % is a proportion of all persons in employment


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Over the last ten years or so, the proportion of people aged 16 and over employed in higher paid occupations (professionals, managers and senior officials) in Norfolk has been consistently much higher than other occupational groups, with a generally increasing trend. Numbers of people employed in the other three major groups have tended to be relatively consistent, until the last few years, where there has been a little more variation. Over the last year, people employed in administrative, secretarial and skilled trade occupations (major groups 4 and 5) have increased their share of employment, compared with a decline for people employed in caring, leisure, other service occupations, sales and customer service occupations (major groups 6 and 7). Migrant workers There are a number of sources of information about migrant workers entering the county, though none gives complete coverage. The mechanism for capturing information relating to the numbers of migrant workers is limited – for instance, outflows are not fully captured. Data from the Department for Work and Pensions, however, show the number of National Insurance Number Registrations (NINo) to overseas nationals entering the UK. A NINo is generally required by any overseas national (aged 16 to 64) looking to work or claim benefits or tax credits in the UK, including the self-employed and students working part time. The statistics provide a measure of immigration (inflow) but do not reflect emigration (outflow), or the overall migrant population (stock). All adult overseas nationals allocated a NINo are included regardless of their length of stay in the UK. Undocumented workers are not recorded in NINo data, so there will be under-recording. There have been fluctuations in estimated numbers of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals entering Norfolk annually over the period 2008 to 2017 (Figure 8.2). Figure 8.2: Norfolk NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals, 2008 to 2017

Source: ONS Local Area Migration Indicators, 2018


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Levels and fluctuations can be accounted for by changes to EU labour market restrictions in recent years - there was a steep rise during 2004 when the UK opened its borders and labour markets to the EU8 countries, and another in 2007 when the EU2 countries joined the EU31. Immigration restrictions for EU2 nationals were lifted in 2014. Further variation can be accounted for in part by the changing economic conditions in the UK over recent years. For example, the steep increase in NINo registrations in 2013 could be accounted for by the improved economic conditions in the UK compared with other EU countries. During 2016, the estimated number of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals in Norfolk was around 7,900, which is the highest annual figure during the period under consideration. For the latest year, the estimated number of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals in Norfolk has fallen sharply to around 6,300, which is a decrease of around 1,600 on the previous year and is the lowest annual figure since 2012. This sharp fall in registrations for 2017 is likely due (at least in part) to uncertainty around EU nationals’ status in the UK following the UK’s EU membership referendum in June 2016. Norfolk’s estimated rate of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals per 1,000 resident population aged 16 to 64 has remained lower than region and national rates over recent years. For 2017, Norfolk’s rate is 11.8 (down from 14.9 in 2016), compared with 15.1 (down from 18.2 in 2016) for the East of England region and 17.6 (down from 21.5 in 2016) nationally. Figure 8.3 shows that over the past five years, Norwich has consistently the highest rate of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals per 1,000 resident population aged 16 to 64. Broadland and South Norfolk stand out as areas with significantly lower rates of NINo registrations compared with the other districts. Norwich is a centre for many skilled and unskilled industry sectors, and areas such as Breckland, Great Yarmouth, King’s Lynn & West Norfolk and North Norfolk have demands in sectors such as agriculture and related food processing and packaging, attracting higher levels of migrant workers. The steep increases in NINo registrations seen at county level in 2013 are most apparent in Norwich, Breckland and Great Yarmouth. For 2017, the districts that have higher rates than the Norfolk average rate (11.8) are Norwich (21.1), King’s Lynn & West Norfolk (15.9), Great Yarmouth (13.0) and Breckland (12.9). Broadland and South Norfolk have had the lowest reductions in registration for 2017 compared with the previous year, but this is from a much lower base than the other districts.

31 For a definition of the Member and Accession countries and other related classifications see http://europa.eu/index_en.htm

http://europa.eu/index_en.htm


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Figure 8.3: Norfolk NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals, rate per 1,000 resident population aged 16 to 64, 2013 to 2017

Source: ONS Local Area Migration Indicators, 2018

During the five-year period from 2011 to 2015, around 80% of the 32,000 NINo registrations in Norfolk are accounted for by ten nationalities. Lithuanian nationals account for the highest number of registrations, at around 7,400 registrations, or almost a quarter of all registrations. Polish nationals account for the second highest number of registrations, at around 4,800, with Portuguese nationals accounting for the third highest number of registrations, at around 3,000. Norwich, Breckland and King’s Lynn & West Norfolk recorded the largest numbers of NINos in total over the five-year period. There are variations across the county over the five year period, for example with around a third of registrations from Lithuanian nationals in King’s Lynn & West Norfolk; around four in ten registrations from Polish nationals in Breckland; almost half of registrations from Portuguese nationals in Great Yarmouth; around a quarter of registrations from Romanian nationals in Norwich; and almost half of registrations from Latvian nationals in King’s Lynn & West Norfolk. 32 Size of enterprises In Norfolk for 2018, 99.6% of local business units employ fewer than 250 people and 83.1% employ fewer than ten people. While this does show that the structure of the economy is heavily weighted to smaller businesses, proportions are similar to the national averages. The highest proportion of micro-businesses is found in South Norfolk where 87.0% of business units employ fewer than ten people. The highest proportion of larger business units with more than 250 employees are found in Norwich. All of the Norfolk districts, with the exception of Norwich have fewer larger business units than the national average. 33

32 DWP Stat-Xplore 33 ONS Inter Departmental Business Register data, 2018 (from Nomis)


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8.2 Economic competitiveness

Weekly pay Gross weekly pay for all full-time workers in Norfolk for 2018 is £515.10, compared with higher pay for the East of England region of £590.30 and nationally of £574.90.34 Norfolk’s pay has increased at a quicker rate over the last year (by 3.6%) than the region (2.7%) and nationally (3.4%). At £593.60, South Norfolk’s average gross weekly pay is the highest in Norfolk and is higher than the national average (Table 8.3). South Norfolk, Broadland (£555.50) and King’s Lynn & West Norfolk (£517.60) each continue to have higher average rates of weekly pay than the Norfolk average (£515.10). Table 8.3: Weekly gross pay (£) for full-time employee jobs, 2018

Area weekly pay £

Breckland 498.30 Broadland 555.50 Great Yarmouth 482.60 King’s Lynn & West Norfolk 517.60 North Norfolk 487.90 Norwich 477.20 South Norfolk 593.60 Norfolk East of England England

515.10 590.30 574.90

Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE), 2018 (from Nomis)

Gross Value Added Gross value added (GVA) is a measure of the increase in the value of the economy due to the production of goods and services. It is measured at current basic prices, which include the effect of inflation, excluding taxes (less subsidies) on products (for example, Value Added Tax). GVA plus taxes (less subsidies) on products is equivalent to gross domestic product (GDP). At £20,177, Norfolk typically has a lower GVA per head than the East of England region (£24,041) and nationally (£27,108).35 For Norfolk, the largest contributor to GVA is the public administration, education and health sector, followed by the distribution, transport, accommodation and food sector. Rates of Business Start-ups and Closures In 2017, Norfolk had a stock of active enterprises of around 33,700, which is an increase on the previous year of around 1,000 enterprises. The rate of new enterprise start-ups continues to be higher for Norfolk since 2013, than the rate of closures (Figure 8.4), although the rate of closures has increased since 2015. In 2017, there were around 3,950 new business start-ups in Norfolk, which is a rate of 11.7 per 100

34 ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE), 2018 (from Nomis) 35 ONS Regional gross value added (balanced) local authorities by NUTS1 region, 2016


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active enterprises, which is lower than the England rate of 13.2. There were around 3,400 business closures in 2017, which is a rate of 10.1 per 100 active enterprises, which is lower than the England rate of 12.4. On this basis, Norfolk has a positive net rate of 1.6, compared with England’s lower net rate of 0.8.36 Figure 8.4: Norfolk rate of business start-ups and closures, 2010 to 2017

Source: ONS Business Demography, 2017

Survival of Enterprises Businesses in Norfolk have a better rate of survival over five years (48.0%) than the East of England region (45.4%) and national (43.1%) averages, based on 2012 business start-ups. There are notable differences in survival rates across the county, with North Norfolk (52.3%) and Broadland (51.4%) having the highest survival rates and Great Yarmouth (40.6%) having the lowest survival rate.37 New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) The LEP for Norfolk and Suffolk, New Anglia, was approved by Government in 2010, and has clear goals of driving growth and enterprise to transform the local economy into a global centre for talent and innovation. The New Anglia Economic Strategy sets out planned growth by 2036 which includes 88,000 new jobs, 30,000 new successful businesses and 140,000 new homes.38 Broadband delivery in Norfolk Better Broadband for Norfolk (BBfN) is a multi-million pound partnership funded through Norfolk County Council, BT and the Department of Culture, Media and Sport via BDUK (Broadband Delivery UK) – with additional support from the New Anglia LEP,

36 ONS Business Demography, 2017 - Business births, deaths and survival rates https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/activitysizeandlocation/datasets/businessdemographyreferencetable 37 ONS Business Demography, 2017 - Business births, deaths and survival rates 38 New Anglia LEP Economic Strategy (November 2017) – https://newanglia.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/New-Anglia-Economic-Strategic-Brochure-Lowres.pdf

https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/activitysizeandlocation/datasets/businessdemographyreferencetable

https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/activitysizeandlocation/datasets/businessdemographyreferencetable

https://newanglia.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/New-Anglia-Economic-Strategic-Brochure-Lowres.pdf


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and five of Norfolk’s district councils. It is transforming Norfolk’s broadband speeds across the county by installing high-speed fibre optic networks across the county. Currently, 92% of Norfolk can access speeds of 24Mbps+ (24 Megabits per second and above). By March 2020, this is due to increase to 95% of the county.39

8.3 Labour market

Employment The rate of employment in the county stood at 74.2% for the year to March 2018. That means there were around 408,300 people of working age in employment in the county. Norfolk’s rate is below (worse than) the East of England regional average of 77.6% and the national of 75.2%. Figure 8.5 shows the annual proportion of those aged 16 to 64 in employment from 2004/05 to 2017/18 (data for April to March), compared with the region and nationally. There tends to be more variation in Norfolk’s employment rates over time, compared with regional and national rates. Having been better than the national rate for several years, over the last year, Norfolk’s rate has dipped below the England average. Figure 8.5: % of persons aged 16 to 64 employed in Norfolk, 2004/05 to 2017/18


39 BBfN - https://www.betterbroadbandnorfolk.co.uk/

https://www.betterbroadbandnorfolk.co.uk/


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Unemployment The rate of unemployment in the county stood at 4.6% for the year to March 2018. That means that there were around 19,900 people of working age unemployed in the county. Norfolk’s rate is above (worse than) the East of England regional average of 3.7% and the national of 4.3%. Figure 8.6 shows the annual proportion of those aged 16 and over who were unemployed from 2004/05 to 2017/18 (data for April to March), compared with the region and nationally. There tends to be more variation in Norfolk’s unemployment rates over time, compared with regional and national rates. Norfolk’s unemployment peaked in 2011/12, followed in recent years by periods of decreases and increases. Over the last couple of years, Norfolk’s unemployment rate has increased, compared with regional and national decreases. Figure 8.6: % of persons aged 16 and over unemployed in Norfolk, 2004/05 to 2017/18



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9 Education and skills in Norfolk The provision of good quality education throughout a child’s school life and beyond into adulthood is important - not only for attainment, but also for raising aspirations, learning new skills and reaching full potential in life. Broadly speaking, when utilised effectively, skills enable people to carry out more complex work, work more effectively, and produce higher value products, thereby contributing to economic growth both through increased productivity and higher employment levels resulting from improvements in people’s employability.

9.1 Educational attainment

Early Years outcomes The early years foundation stage (EYFS) sets standards for the learning, development and care of your child from birth to 5 years old. Children are defined as having reached a good level of development if they achieve at least the expected level in the early learning goals in the prime areas of learning (personal, social and emotional development; physical development; and communication and language) and the early learning goals in the specific areas of mathematics and literacy. At the EYFS, the percentage of Norfolk pupils achieving the expected standard (a good level of development) has continued to increase and for 2018 has slightly exceeded the national average. For 2018, the percentage of Norfolk pupils achieving the expected standard is 71.6%, compared with the national figure of 71.5% (Figure 9.1). Girls continue to out-perform boys at this level. Pupils who are eligible for FSM are far less likely to reach the expected standard in all early learning goals, compared with other pupils (56% for children eligible for FSM in 2018 compared with 72% for other children). Figure 9.1: % attaining EYFS Good Level of Development, 2013 to 2018

Source: Department for Education - Statistics: Early Years Foundation Stage Profile – https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-early-years-foundation-stage-profile

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-early-years-foundation-stage-profile


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Key Stage 2 outcomes Key stage 2 refers to Year 3 to Year 6 and to pupils aged between 7 and 11. At the end of key stage 2, pupils are assessed by national curriculum tests in reading, mathematics and grammar, punctuation and spelling. Pupils also receive a teacher assessment outcome in writing, science, reading and mathematics based on the standards in the interim frameworks for teacher assessment. The combined measures use the reading and mathematics test results and the outcome of the writing teacher assessment. At KS2 level, test outcomes and teacher assessments for 2018 in Norfolk are below national figures in all subjects, for the percentage of children reaching the expected standard (Figure 9.2). Girls continue to out-perform boys at this level. Disadvantaged pupils (including those eligible for FSM in the last six years or are looked after children for at least one day or are adopted from care) are far less likely to reach the expected standard in reading, writing and maths, compared with other pupils (44% for disadvantaged children in 2018 compared with 66% for other children). Figure 9.2: % attaining Expected Standard at Key Stage 2, 2018

Source: Department for Education - Statistics: Key Stage 2 – https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-key-stage-2

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-key-stage-2


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Key Stage 4 outcomes Key Stage 4 (KS4) assessments are taken at the end of Year 11, usually when children are 16 years old. From 2017, pupils sat reformed GCSEs in English language, English literature and mathematics for the first time, graded on a 9-1 scale (9 being the highest). Due to these changes in the examinations, it is difficult to directly compare recent years’ outcomes to results in previous years, although there are three points where old and new GCSE grading scales align: the bottom of grade 7 is aligned with the bottom of grade A; the bottom of grade 4 is aligned with the bottom of grade C; and the bottom of grade 1 is aligned with the bottom of grade G. Results for 2017/18 show the percentage of Norfolk pupils who achieved a 9-4 pass (equivalent to grade A*-C under the previous grading system) in English and maths is 62.4%, compared with 64.4% nationally.40 Girls continue to out-perform boys at this level. Disadvantaged pupils (including pupils known to be eligible for FSM in any spring, autumn, summer, alternative provision or pupil referral unit census from year 6 to year 11 or are looked after children for at least one day or are adopted from care) are far less likely to achieve a 9-4 pass in English and maths, compared with other pupils (40.3% for disadvantaged children in 2017/18 compared with 69.0% for other children).

9.2 Skills

The fastest growing occupations in England generally demand National Vocational Qualification (NVQ) level 4 qualifications while the fastest declining occupations are those requiring NVQ level 2 and lower qualifications. Although low skilled jobs are expected to persist and will remain important as a labour market entry point for many groups, such as those seeking to move out of unemployment, it is likely that these jobs will have to be up-skilled in order to make improvements in service and product quality and to meet changes in consumer demand. In general, the qualification levels of Norfolk residents aged 16-64 are lower than the East of England region and national figures. In 2017, the level of Norfolk residents achieving NVQ level 4 and above was 29.9% (31.4% in 2016) compared with 34.7% (34.9% in 2016) for the region and 38.3% (37.9% in 2016) nationally. So, not only has Norfolk a worse rate of higher qualifications within the working age population, the county is also falling behind the region and nationally more quickly. For the lower level qualifications NVQ levels 2 and 1, the gap is less marked for 2017. In 2017, 8.6% of Norfolk 16-64-year olds (or about 45,100 people) had no qualifications (8.4% in 2016), compared with 7.2% for the region and 7.6% nationally.41 For most young people, being not in education, employment or training (NEET) is a temporary outcome as they move between different education and training options. The characteristics of young people who are not participating are diverse, although there are some groups that are at greater risk of becoming NEET. This includes, for example, those with few or no qualifications and those with a health problem, disability or low

40 Department for Education – Statistics: Key Stage 4 – https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/key-stage-4-and-multi-academy-trust-performance-2018-revised 41 ONS Annual Population Survey – Qualifications Jan-Dec 2017 (from Nomis)

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/key-stage-4-and-multi-academy-trust-performance-2018-revised

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/key-stage-4-and-multi-academy-trust-performance-2018-revised


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aspirations. Latest data shows that for the year ended March 2018, the proportion of Norfolk’s 16 and 17-year olds participating in education and training is 90.7% (a decrease of 0.3ppt on the previous year), compared with 91.9% for the East of England region and 92.0% nationally. The proportion of Norfolk’s 16 and 17-year-olds who are NEET (including not known, as not knowns can mask underlying NEET) (average of December 2017, January 2018 and February 2018) is 5.1% (an increase of 0.1ppt on the same period the previous year), compared with 4.8% for the East of England region and 6.0% nationally. Males are more likely to be NEET than females for Norfolk, the region and nationally.42 Apprenticeships have a critical role to play, not only in furnishing young people with important skills, but also in developing a highly skilled and productive workforce that underpins economic prosperity. For Norfolk, there were 5,950 apprenticeship starts during 2017/18, compared with 6,700 during 2016/17. In 2017/18, the sectors that have the highest numbers of people starting apprenticeships in Norfolk are Business, Administration and Law; and Health, Public Services and Care – this has been the case over the last few years and is also the case for each of the three levels of apprenticeship (intermediate, advanced and higher levels).43

42 Department for Education NEET and participation data - https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/neet-and-participation-local-authority-figures 43 Department for Education Apprenticeships and traineeships data - https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/fe-data-library-apprenticeships

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/neet-and-participation-local-authority-figures

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/fe-data-library-apprenticeships


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10 Concluding remarks This report highlights key and cross-cutting issues for Norfolk such as changes in Norfolk’s population, deprivation, economic, health and rural issues, which could be used to inform the planning of local service strategies and provision.

The picture it shows is of a county with continuing issues around a growing and ageing population, with the challenges for care and support that this brings; issues around health, inequalities, deprivation and poverty; and issues around children’s educational attainment and the further impacts on people’s skills and employment opportunities. It also identifies some of the changing characteristics of the area, with a widening diversity of people and changes in where people choose to live.


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If you need this document in large print, audio, Braille, alternative format or in a different language please contact Customer Services on 0344 800 8020 or Text Relay on 18001 0344 800 8020 (textphone) and we will do our best to help. If you have any queries about this publication, please contact Norfolk County Council’s Intelligence & Analytics Team by email [email protected] www.norfolk.gov.uk Published May 2019

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Norfolk’s Story · 2020-01-14 · Norfolk’s Story – April 2019 Page 3 of 56 Produced by NCC...

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