Nominations, Campaigns and Elections... The path to the PRESIDENCY Presidential election 2008 and...
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Nominations, Campaigns and Elections . . . The path to the PRESIDENCY Presidential election 2008 and 2012 “Hurtling towards the Presidency”
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Transcript of Nominations, Campaigns and Elections... The path to the PRESIDENCY Presidential election 2008 and...
Nominations, Campaigns and Elections. . . The path to the PRESIDENCY
Presidential election 2008 and 2012
“Hurtling towards the Presidency”
Rs Ds
Invisible Primary“test the waters”
Declaration
Campaign to win delegates, state by state
Official nomination at party convention
Win enough delegates, so everyone knows you will win the nomination
Pick a running mate
Invisible Primary “test the waters”
Declaration
Winning the nomination of delegates, state by state
Win enough delegates, so everyone knows you will win the nomination
Pick a running mate
Official nomination at party convention
Rx vs Dy
Nomination
General Election
Guilian, Thomspson, McCain, Gingrich Clinton,Obama, Edwards, Gore
POTUSElection Day November 6th 2012
We have a well established two party system . . . so the the nomination phase decides which D will run against which R in the general election
Obama Announces Reelection Bid For 2012April 4th
Vs
There are other parties . . . . .
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012
Step one: the “invisible primary” or the “race before the race before the race” often at least TWO years before the actual election—candidates test the waters
So it is 2013. . . . 3 years before 2016 . . .
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/09/5-signs-sen-ted-cruz-will-run-for-president-in-2016
/How about the dems? http://ajherrma.hubpages.com/hub/Democratic-Presidential-Candidates-2016
The NEXT STEP: OFFICIAL DECLARATION:
May 2011
(1.5 years before Nov 2012)
Nov 2011
(Reuters) –Sept 15 2011 Sarah Palin faces a dilemma.The conservative firebrand could use her electrifying, combative personality to leap into the race to determine the Republican nominee to run for president in 2012.Palin is the only big-name Republican left who could launch a run this late and has said she will make the decision by the end of this month
Obama declares himself candidate for re-election April 4 2012
One result of the races getting earlier and earlier is . . .
Look at how much is being spent:
And don’t forget this is not just a presidential election . . .
Banking on Becoming PresidentFor the first time ever in U.S. history, the candidates for president raised more than $1 billion (2008)
And look at 2012:
But first some definitions: http://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacfaq.php
http://www.opensecrets.org/bigpicture/index.php
Republican presidential candidates (L-R) Rick Santorum, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), and Jon Huntsman listen to the national anthem prior to a debate at Constitution Hall November 22, 2011 in Washington, DC. (Win McNamee/Getty Images North America)
SO after they declare, each of for each party campaign to get the nomination for their party . . .democrats are running against dems, republicans are running against repubs . . .
Because ultimately you want to be the guy or gal who wins the race
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2012/03/gop_delegate_race_an_animation_of_the_2012_republican_nomination_fight_as_a_horse_race_.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/primaries.html
But because we have a federalist system, this duking it out is complicated
what they are racing towards is to be the winner of a majority of delegate votes at the party’s convention the summer before the general election . . . The delegates come from the states . . With each state having a certain number and each party picking its delegates differently
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R-Del.phtmlhttp://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/D-Del.phtml
Take a look at details if you are that type: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R-Alloc.phtml
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/D-Alloc.phtml
So now you see . . . Candidates for each party are vying to win the delegates of each state so that they get more than the next guy, and win 50% of all delegate votes so they can win the nomination.
The parties have decided how many delegate votes will come from each state.
So how do the people in the state designate to whom they want delegates vote to go for? dems in Washington for example—had 97 delegate votes—how to decide who gets them? Hilary? Or John? Or Barak? Or??
And Repubs had 40 votes in Washington—who gets them? Mitt? Or Mike Or John?
There are two basic ways that delegate votes are determined:
Either by the caucus and convention method
. . .
Or the primary method
States differ (and parties within the states differ)
See http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c&f=m
Remember. . . The point is to win the delegates in each state as have already been determined
local caucusesdistrict conventionstate conventionnational convention. . . Like a:
Very few states use the caucus method, which requires much more participation and commitment—It starts with what are essentially small meetings in districts in every county—the people at those meetings pick delegates for the nominee they want, then those delegates go to another meeting with other delegates and that meeting does the same thing and so on, until you get to the state level
The Iowa caucus is first
See: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=racTAiemEQU
Which are just elections where voters (eligibility varies depending on whether it is an open or closed primary) designate their choice for the nominee—they are similar to the primaries for House and Senate races but they are indirect, because they don’t necessarily determine who the nominee will be, but just who the state wants.
Most states use primaries. . .
The rise of the primary is one of the most significant changes in history—not only are there more, but they are becoming more significant
If this is the turnout in primaries, imagine what it is in caucuses!
So there the people in the states are, selecting their preferences for the candidacy . . . And racing to be early so that they impact the process
See http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c
You don’t want to be at the end . . . So they fight to move them up . . . Leading to another great change:
Frontloading
Another vocab term
Super Tuesday commonly refers to a Tuesday in early March of a presidential election year (march 2, 2004, March 7 2000) . It is the day when the most states simultaneously hold their primary elections, and the single day when the most nominating delegates can be won.. This term began in 1988, when many southern states decided to hold their primaries on the same day to try to boost their political importance (in relation to the importance of the New Hampshire primary and Iowa caucuses).
The ten Super tuesday states
What happens if as state holds a primary earlier than Iowa and NH?
The Democratic National Committee’s rules and bylaws committee, convened by a co-chairwoman, Alexis Herman, voted Aug. 25 to punish Florida for setting a Jan. 29 primary date
.For Repubs click here and see the sanctions part http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R-Alloc.phtml
Forewarned but Angry, Florida Democrats Weigh Primary
Penalty MIAMI, Sept. 8 — The anger coursing lately through Democratic circles in Florida
feels unlike any since the presidential recount of 2000. This time, though, the object of wrath is the Democratic National Committee, which voted last month to punish Florida harshly for moving up its presidential primary to January. Under pressure from the four states permitted to hold contests that month, many Democratic candidates have pledged not to campaign in Florida and other states that break party rules. Barring a compromise, none of Florida’s delegates can be seated at next summer’s party convention, which means the state Democratic primary will essentially count for nothing. Florida Democrats are calling it a cruel irony, not least because their party has worked doggedly to restore public confidence in the electoral process since 2000.
. . . Under the rules of both national parties, no state can hold a presidential primary or caucus earlier than Feb. 5 without the party’s permission. Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina are the only states that have it. Nonetheless, the Florida Legislature voted in May to schedule primaries for Jan. 29, saying the populous and diverse swing state deserved a more prominent role in choosing presidential nominees.In recent years, Florida’s primaries have taken place in March, by which time the nominee is clear.
The change was pushed through by Republicans, who hold a majority in both houses of the Legislature and will suffer less serious penalties. Under Republican National Committee rules, Florida will lose half its delegates to the Republican convention.While their party had more to lose, Democratic state lawmakers joined Republicans in voting to move up the primary — a decision for which some fellow Democrats are now chiding them.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/02/delegate.explainer/index.html
Ok so delegates are selected . . . using either a primary or caucus
But what’s a delegate?
And how are they selected?
Does more democratic mean better?• Criticisms of the primary and
caucus process– Too much attention paid to
early states– Money plays too big of a role – Low turnout makes process
unrepresentative– Too much power is given to the
media• Possible alternatives?
– National or regional primary.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R
In 2008 . . . .McCain became the “presumptive ________ “ by Feb 9th
RNC officially names Mitt Romney the party's 'presumptive nominee'April 25, 2012
See http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/scorecard/
Same in 2004: March 11, 2004 it was all over . . .
But for dems of course, in 2008 the battle raged on . . .
Benefiting McCain . . .
Senator Barack Obama claimed the Democratic presidential nomination on Tuesday evening, prevailing through an epic battle with Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in a primary campaign that inspired millions of voters from every corner of America to demand change in Washington.
Senator Barack Obama with his wife, Michelle, in St. Paul
Obama Clinches Nomination; First Black Candidate to Lead a Major Party Ticket
June 4, 2008
June 3, 2008
On Day of Last Primary, Obama's Superdelegate Surge
Next big event in the process: pick a running mate
Up until midweek last week, some 48 to 72 hours before Mr. McCain introduced Ms. Palin at a Friday rally in Dayton, Ohio, Mr. McCain was still holding out the hope that he could choose a good friend, Senator Lieberman independent of Connecticut, a Republican close to the campaign said. Mr. McCain had also been interested in another favorite, former Gov. Tom Ridge f Pennsylvania.
But both men favor abortion rights, anathema to the Christian conservatives who make up a crucial base of the Republican Party As word leaked out that Mr. McCain was seriously considering the men, the campaign was bombarded by outrage from influential conservatives who predicted an explosive floor fight at the convention and vowed rejection of Mr. Ridge or Mr. Lieberman by the delegates.
Perhaps more important, several Republicans said, Mr. McCain was getting advice that if he did not do something to shake up the race, his campaign would be stuck on a potentially losing trajectory.
With time running out — and as Mr. McCain discarded two safer choices, Gov. Pawlenty of Minnesota and former Gov.Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, as too predictable — he turned to Ms. Palin. He had his first face-to-face interview with her on Thursday and offered her the job moments later.
It’s all a strategy . . . . .
Senator Kerry selects Senator John Edwards as his Running Mate
6 July 2004
The emphasis here is “ticket balancing”
Wall Street JournalPOLITICSUpdated August 12, 2012, 12:41 a.m. ETRomney Picks Ryan as Vice-Presidential Running Mate
NORFOLK, Va.—Mitt Romney picked Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate, a decision that could spark enthusiasm for the Republican ticket among conservatives and all but ensures the election will turn to deep philosophical divisions between the two parties over spending, taxes and entitlements. In Mr. Ryan, 42 years old, the Romney campaign gets a conservative who has spent recent years at the center of national debates about the size and scope of the federal government. With his proposals to revamp entitlement programs for future retirees and the poor, he has become a hero to conservatives and a target for liberals.
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Romney's pick of Ryan as his running mate energizes conservatives, opponentsFrom the CNN Political Unitupdated 10:42 PM EDT, Sun August 12, 2012
See images:
http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/11/politics/romney-ryan/index.html
The 2012 Republican National Convention: Tampa Bay Florida: late August 2012
See slide show: http://www.upi.com/News_Photos/News/Republican-National-Convention/7006/#!/3/
.
And then the next event(s) : Party Conventions:
Notice where the conventions are held: http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map
Members of the Texas delegation on Tuesday
Romney officially clinches nomination at condensed GOP convention
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From VOA: Although there was no suspense about the outcome, Republicans went ahead with the traditional roll call of the states that assured Mitt Romney of the presidential nomination and a showdown with President Barack Obama in the November election.
By Tom Cohen, CNNupdated 11:30 PM EDT, Tue August 28, 2012
At the convention the nominees are announced but it is no longer a big and exciting mystery
The parties also pick (announce) their platform
Sept 6, 2012 Barack Obama officially became the Democratic presidential nominee when Ohio cast its 188 votes and put him over the required 2,778 delegates.
Just after midnight Wednesday, party secretary Alice Germond briefly paused the state-by-state roll call to announce “Barack Obama is now our party’s official nominee!” while some delegates danced to Kool and the Gang’s, “Celebration.”
Obama officially nominated by Democratic Party
It’s become a scripted, media event
Emphasis is “image” not “scrimmage” and “ratification”, not “nomination”
After that, it is the race to the General Election: A “100 yard dash” compared to the primaries
Forest Gump: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwDEE_4VDxA&feature=related
In this process: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ertAvE9JxDQ
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2012/sep/28/us-electoral-college-explained
But now the race is to win . . . .________ (a number ) e_________ __________ (a majority) . . . Again state by state—with all but ________ and __________ awarding their votes on a _________ take ______ basis
See: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/elections.php
_________ __________Method and rules of counting votes to determine the outcome of elections.
______ _____ _______electoral system based on single member districts where the winner is the person who wins a PLURALITY of the votes; a competition where there is a single winner who reaps all (or almost all) of the value competed for; a system in an election where the winner is the person who gets the most votes.
WINNER TAKE ALL IN THREE CONTEXTS
(1)When determining legislative seats
(2)When determining how a state will allocate its delegates (Republican and not Democratic) during the nominating process for presidential candidates delegates to the party conventions when nominating candidates
(3) When determining how a state will allocate its electoral votes
Watch: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7tWHJfhiyo
Figure 2 Figure 3
all PR systems have certain basic characteristics First, they all use multi-member districts.
Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3
These figures illustrate districting maps for a hypothetical 50-person state senate. Figure 1 shows 50 single-seat districts, as is common with plurality-majority systems. Figure 2 depicts 10 five-seat PR districts, and Figure 3 shows 5 ten-seat PR districts.)
Second they divide up the seats in these multi-member districts according to the proportion of votes received by the various parties or groups running candidates. Thus if the candidates of a party win 40% of the vote in a 10 member district, they receive four of the ten seats -- or 40% of the seats.
http://www.fairvote.org/delegate-allocation-rules-in-2012-gop#.UmqiGBjn9kg
We also saw PR in 3 contexts: leg districts; delegate votes and (NOT) electoral votes
It's easier to understand the Electoral College if you remember that it isn't really a national election -- it's a whole bunch of separate state elections. Each state gets a certain number of electors:one for each senator (which means two, because there are always two senators)one for each representative (which depends on the state's population as determined by the census)In almost all cases (see "Winner Doesn't Always Take All" below), whichever candidate wins a given state wins all of that state's electoral votes, and it takes a majority of the electoral votes to win the overall election
President’s are elected by the electoral vote not the popular vote
The fact that we elect our president through the electoral college plus the fact that almost all states allocated their votes via winner take all has . . . .consequences:
• Disproportionate results• makes swing states a big deal
All electoral votes go to candidate with a PLURALITY of votes.
Obama 2008:52.9% of popular vote68% of electoral vote
Obama 2012:51% of popular vote62% of electoral vote
Bush 2004:50.7 % popular vote53% of electoral vote
Bush 2000:47.9 % popular vote50% electoral vote
swing state (battleground state) • no single candidate or party has overwhelming support in
securing that state's electoral college votes.• targets of both major political parties in presidential elections • Non-swing states are sometimes called safe states
“Swing States” will be targeted
These maps show the amount of attention given by the campaigns of George W. Bush and John Kerry during the final four weeks of the 2004 election. At left, each waving hand represents a visit from a presidential or vice-presidential candidate during the final four weeks. At right, each dollar sign represents one million dollars spent on TV advertising by the campaigns
during the same time period.
Swing states in the 2012 presidential election. President Barack Obama won the nationwide popular vote by ~4 percentage points; this won him the bulk of the closely contested states, losing only North Carolina. States won by Red: Republican Mitt Romney by 0–4 percentage points Purple: States won by Democrat Barack Obama by 0–4 percentage points Blue: States won by Democrat Barack Obama by 4–8 percentage points
The Battle for the ____________ ______________
November 2, 2008
Op-Chart: How Much Is Your Vote Worth?
This map shows each state re-sized in proportion to the relative influence of the individual voters who live there. The numbers indicate the total delegates to the Electoral College from each state, and how many eligible voters a single delegate from each state represents
Violates the Principle of ________ person ________ vote
States with laws punishing faithless electors
See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector for list
The Faithless Elector
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/Hx/FaithlessElectors.html
____________ ___________Television, radio, mass mailings, phone banking etc ads that expressly advocate the election or defeat of a candidate, without being coordinated with a candidate’s campaign. These ads are also known as “express advocacy.”
Unlike Pacspeople can make unlimited contributions to them
Super Pacs are ______________ _______________ groups.
See Stewart/Colberthttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8Lzo1n8-mY
Primaries and General Elections are different . . . How?
cite: 1, 2, 3 Democrats Republicans National Average
White 57% 93% 74%
Black 25% 2% 13%
Latino 12% 5% 15%
Asian 5% ~0% ? 4%
Male 50% 68% ~50%
Only 36 of the 2,380 delegates seated on the convention floor are black, the lowest number since the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies began tracking diversity at political conventions 40 years ago
Which party?
Both the content of the messages and the color of the faces reflect a clear political reality. In 2000 and 2004, Mr. Bush and one of his top lieutenants, Ken Mehlman, worked explicitly to win more black and Hispanic votes. This year the Republicans are aggressively reaching out to the base of their party — white, male, conservative — while making a new appeal to women with the addition of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska to the ticket.The Bush strategy paid some dividends in 2004: the president won 16 percent of African-Americans in Ohio and 56 percent of Hispanics in Florida, for instance, meaningful numbers that helped him capture those two swing states. But Republican leaders, especially in the wake of black anger about the government’s response to Hurricane Katrina and mindful of the pull of Mr. Obama’s candidacy, have largely de-emphasized their outreach to minorities.Nelson Warfield, a Republican consultant, pointed out that Democratic Party rules called for race- and gender-based numerical goals for state delegations, a factor that most likely contributed to the greater minority presence at the Denver event.“The Republicans,” Mr. Warfield said, “trust delegates to represent the interests of all people more than Democrats do with their quotas.”
Thus, presidents are elected by coalitions of groups. . . which can create difficulties
