NOAA Products Validation System (NPROVS) Atmospheric … · 2018-07-17 · Tony Reale . STAR (Bomin...
Transcript of NOAA Products Validation System (NPROVS) Atmospheric … · 2018-07-17 · Tony Reale . STAR (Bomin...
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Tony Reale STAR
(Bomin Sun, Frank Tilley, Mike Pettey and Nick Nalli)
(IMSG)
AIRS Science Team Meeting 13-16 October 2015
Greenbelt, Md
NOAA Products Validation System (NPROVS)
Atmospheric Sounding Cal/Val Over Various Scales and Meteorological Cases
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Outline
About NPROVS
Long Term Monitoring (NARCS)
Shorter Term More Detailed Monitoring (PDISP)
AWIPS-2 Training Support • Cold Core • CALWATER
Summary
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NPROVS
Collocation Archive
NPROVS NPROVS+
Conv Radiosondes
+GFS
GRUAN & DOE/ARM
Radiosondes
NUCAPS (S-NPP)
NUCAPS Parallel (STAR)
NOAA IASI MetOp-A (OSPO)
MetOp-B (STAR FTP)
MIRS NPP (Op, v.11)
NOAA-18,19 MetOP-A,B DMSP F18 (STAR FTP,
OSAPO)
AIRS v.6 (NASA)
EUMETSAT IASI
MetOp-A,B (OSPO)
GOES (OSPO)
ATOVS NOAA-18,19 MetOp-A,B
(OSPO)
COSMIC (UCAR)
GRAS (EUMETSAT)
NPROVS+
Collocation Archive
3 day delay
FTP VALAR
14 day delay
FTP
Algorithm Development
Visualization Tools: ODS
PDISP NARCS
INPUTS
PROCESSING
OUTPUTS
NPROVS/NPROVS+ Data Management Schematic
ECMWF
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Collocation Criteria:
+/- 6-hour
250 km
Single Closest
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Typical NPROVS Global Collocation Dataset (1000 collocation records per day) 6
Maritime … Blue, Red Land … Brown, Orange (Drops … Purple)
N P R O V S
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GRUAN and JPSS funded Dedicated (S-NPP) RAOB Sites Over 10,000 RAOBS (1000 Dedicated) available since July 2013
N P R O V S +
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Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN)
JPSS Funded Dedicated RAOB
• DOE ARM (SGP, NSA, ENA) CIMSS (2) per week GRUAN processed dual vs single, etc
• AEROSE • CALWATER • PMRF …
Request coordination with “other” intensive field
experiments particularly is synchronized with
S-NPP
N P R O V S +
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Independent (Enterprise)
Validation of Sounding Products at STAR
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NOAA Archive Summary (NARCS) Long Term Monitoring of
(SAT-minus-RAOB)
Optimal Sample per System !
2013 to present Maritime vs Continental NUCAPS, IASI (NOAA and EU), AIRS v.6, MiRS, NWP IR vs MW QC’d products Weekly average differences RMS 650 hPa T and H20 vapor fraction (W2)
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Continental IR
GFS Forecast GFS CFSR ECMWF Analysis AIRS Aqua IR+MW NUCAPS IR+MW NOAA IASI MetOp-A IR+MW NOAA IASI MetOp-B IR+MW EU IASI MetOp-A IR+MW EU IASI MetOp-B IR+MW
GFS Forecast GFS CFSR ECMWF Analysis AIRS Aqua IR+MW NUCAPS IR+MW NOAA IASI MetOp-A IR+MW NOAA IASI MetOp-B IR+MW EU IASI MetOp-A IR+MW EU IASI MetOp-B IR+MW
7/13
8/
13
9/13
11/1
3 10
/13
12/1
3
1/14
2/14
3/
14
4/14
5/
14
6/14
7/
14
8/14
9/14
10
/14
11/1
4
12/1
4
1/15
2/
15
3/15
4/
15
5/15
6/15
7/
15
8/15
7/13
8/
13
9/13
11/1
3 10
/13
12/1
3
1/14
2/14
3/
14
4/14
5/
14
6/14
7/
14
8/14
9/14
10
/14
11/1
4
12/1
4
1/15
2/
15
3/15
4/
15
5/15
6/15
7/
15
8/15
Temperature 649.99 mb Layer Statistics
Water Vapor Percent Error 649.8 mb Layer Statistics
RM
S R
MS
2.5
1.94
1.38
0.81
0.25
80
60
40
20
0
sum winter summer winter sum
sum winter summer winter sum
11
1
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Maritime IR
Temperature 649.99 mb Layer Statistics
Water Vapor Percent Error 649.8 mb Layer Statistics
7/13
8/
13
9/13
11/1
3 10
/13
12/1
3
1/14
2/14
3/
14
4/14
5/
14
6/14
7/
14
8/14
9/14
10
/14
11/1
4
12/1
4
1/15
2/
15
3/15
4/
15
5/15
6/15
7/
15
8/15
7/13
8/
13
9/13
11/1
3 10
/13
12/1
3
1/14
2/14
3/
14
4/14
5/
14
6/14
7/
14
8/14
9/14
10
/14
11/1
4
12/1
4
1/15
2/
15
3/15
4/
15
5/15
6/15
7/
15
8/15
RM
S R
MS
2.5
1.94
1.38
0.81
0.25
80
60
40
20
0
GFS Forecast GFS CFSR ECMWF Analysis AIRS Aqua IR+MW NUCAPS IR+MW NOAA IASI MetOp-A IR+MW NOAA IASI MetOp-B IR+MW EU IASI MetOp-A IR+MW EU IASI MetOp-B IR+MW
GFS Forecast GFS CFSR ECMWF Analysis AIRS Aqua IR+MW NUCAPS IR+MW NOAA IASI MetOp-A IR+MW NOAA IASI MetOp-B IR+MW EU IASI MetOp-A IR+MW EU IASI MetOp-B IR+MW
sum winter summer winter sum
sum winter summer winter sum
12
0.3K improvement; less for AIRS 2
10% improvement
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Continental MW
Temperature 649.99 mb Layer Statistics
Water Vapor Percent Error 649.8 mb Layer Statistics
7/13
8/
13
9/13
11/1
3 10
/13
12/1
3
1/14
2/14
3/
14
4/14
5/
14
6/14
7/
14
8/14
9/14
10
/14
11/1
4
12/1
4
1/15
2/
15
3/15
4/
15
5/15
6/15
7/
15
8/15
7/13
8/
13
9/13
11/1
3 10
/13
12/1
3
1/14
2/14
3/
14
4/14
5/
14
6/14
7/
14
8/14
9/14
10
/14
11/1
4
12/1
4
1/15
2/
15
3/15
4/
15
5/15
6/15
7/
15
8/15
RM
S R
MS
3.3
2.5
1.8
1.0
0.3
80
60
40
20
0
GFS Forecast GFS CFSR ECMWF Analysis AIRS Aqua MW NUCAPS MW NOAA IASI MetOp-A MW NOAA IASI MetOp-B MW MIRS NPP MW MIRS MetOp-A MW MIRS MetOp-B MW
GFS Forecast GFS CFSR ECMWF Analysis AIRS Aqua MW NUCAPS MW NOAA IASI MetOp-A MW NOAA IASI MetOp-B MW MIRS NPP MW MIRS MetOp-A MW MIRS MetOp-B MW
sum winter summer winter sum
sum winter summer winter sum
13
3
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Maritime MW
Temperature 649.99 mb Layer Statistics
Water Vapor Percent Error 649.8 mb Layer Statistics
7/13
8/
13
9/13
11/1
3 10
/13
12/1
3
1/14
2/14
3/
14
4/14
5/
14
6/14
7/
14
8/14
9/14
10
/14
11/1
4
12/1
4
1/15
2/
15
3/15
4/
15
5/15
6/15
7/
15
8/15
7/13
8/
13
9/13
11/1
3 10
/13
12/1
3
1/14
2/14
3/
14
4/14
5/
14
6/14
7/
14
8/14
9/14
10
/14
11/1
4
12/1
4
1/15
2/
15
3/15
4/
15
5/15
6/15
7/
15
8/15
RM
S R
MS
3.3
2.5
1.8
1.0
0.3
80
60
40
20
0
GFS Forecast GFS CFSR ECMWF Analysis AIRS Aqua MW NUCAPS MW NOAA IASI MetOp-A MW NOAA IASI MetOp-B MW MIRS NPP MW MIRS MetOp-A MW MIRS MetOp-B MW
GFS Forecast GFS CFSR ECMWF Analysis AIRS Aqua MW NUCAPS MW NOAA IASI MetOp-A MW NOAA IASI MetOp-B MW MIRS NPP MW MIRS MetOp-A MW MIRS MetOp-B MW
sum winter summer winter sum
sum winter summer winter sum
14
0.4K improvement; less for AIRS
10% improvement; more for AIRS
4
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Maritime IR
GFS Forecast GFS CFSR ECMWF Analysis AIRS Aqua IR+MW NUCAPS IR+MW NOAA IASI MetOp-A IR+MW NOAA IASI MetOp-B IR+MW EU IASI MetOp-A IR+MW EU IASI MetOp-B IR+MW
GFS Forecast GFS CFSR ECMWF Analysis AIRS Aqua IR+MW NUCAPS IR+MW NOAA IASI MetOp-A IR+MW NOAA IASI MetOp-B IR+MW EU IASI MetOp-A IR+MW EU IASI MetOp-B IR+MW
Temperature 649.99 mb Layer Statistics
Water Vapor Percent Error 649.8 mb Layer Statistics
7/13
8/
13
9/13
11/1
3 10
/13
12/1
3
1/14
2/14
3/
14
4/14
5/
14
6/14
7/
14
8/14
9/14
10
/14
11/1
4
12/1
4
1/15
2/
15
3/15
4/
15
5/15
6/15
7/
15
8/15
7/13
8/
13
9/13
11/1
3 10
/13
12/1
3
1/14
2/14
3/
14
4/14
5/
14
6/14
7/
14
8/14
9/14
10
/14
11/1
4
12/1
4
1/15
2/
15
3/15
4/
15
5/15
6/15
7/
15
8/15
RM
S R
MS
3.3
2.5
1.8
1.0
0.3
80
60
40
20
0
15
0.5K improvement 5
10% improvement
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Global Collocation Sample Size Reflect Respective Product Yields
GFS Forecast GFS CFSR ECMWF Analysis AIRS Aqua IR+MW NUCAPS IR+MW NOAA IASI MetOp-A IR+MW NOAA IASI MetOp-B IR+MW EU IASI MetOp-A IR+MW EU IASI MetOp-B IR+MW MIRS NPP MW
16
IASI-EU
MiRS
AIRS
NUC
IASI N
RAOB
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17
WEB Site
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/nprovs/index.php
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Profile Display (PDISP): (Monitoring/Analysis of (10-day) NPROVS
collocation datasets)
C o m m o n S a m p l e s !
Analytical options: • Collocated profile display and statistics • Sampling options (space / time windows, region, weather, satellites, instruments, day/nite, qc …)
Assessments: • NUCAPS and MiRS upgrades • Retrieval vs First Guess Convergence
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10-day sample of collocations containing NUCAPS test and Oper IR+MW soundings which pass QC 19
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Temp IR+MW pass QC 10-day
20
Temp
Bias St dev
Global
NUCAPS (old) vs NUCAPS (new, v1.5)
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H20 Fraction
Bias St dev
Global
NUCAPS (old) vs NUCAPS (new, v1.5)
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22 Sea
St dev Bias Bias St dev
Temp H20 Fraction
MiRS (old) vs MiRS (new, v11)
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QC flags … red means MiRS (upper) and NUCAPS (lower) failed 23
ODS
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24
Common sample of collocations containing: 1) NUCAPS Test 2) AIRS 3) IASI-EU … all pass respective QC
+/- 6hr 250 (50) km
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First Guess Temp 25
product performance generally rooted in
first guess
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26 Retrieval Temp
500 hPa
650 hPa
non-convergence
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27
NARCS LTM of NUCAPS (old) retrieval vs 1st guess: (NUCAPS IR+MW show seasonal (summer) non-convergence vicinity 500 hPa
mainly continental cases; not evident at 650 hPa )
July 13 July 14 July 15
non-convergence 500 hPa Temp
650 hPa Temp
Aug
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28
St dev
Bias
(NUCAPS IR+MW show seasonal warm bias vicinity 500 hPa)
July 13 July 14 July 15
500 hPa Temp Aug
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AWIPS-2 WG Cold Core Analysis (jet fuel freezes below -65C)
Jan 9, March 12 cases 29
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30 January Case
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31 January Case
35K ft 200 hPa
203
213
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32 March Case
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33 March Case
300 hPa 28K ft
200 hPa 35K ft
203
213
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*
34 January Case
200 hPa *
150 hPa
NUCAPS IR (old)
350 hPa
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35 March Case
500 hPa
300 hPa *
200 hPa
100 hPa NUCAPS IR (old)
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Snapshot horizontal comparison (200 hPa):
NUCAPS (old) vs
NWP vs
Dual Regression (Smith…)
March 3, 12, 2015
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… approximately 222K @ X (low left corner of box)
NUCAPS (old) and NWP for March 12
approximately 225K @ X
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CalWater 2/ACAPEX Field Campaign
Platform Range of Obs Duration Types of sensors
AR Observatories and Hydro-Met Testbed
ARO sites: CA(4), OR(2), WA(1)
Full campaign Snow level radar (S-band), 449 MHz wind profilers, soil moisture, 10 meter surface tower
NOAA WP-3D 1-22 kft, 4000 km range
80h over 4 weeks ~150 dropsondes, W-band radar (clouds), IWRAP Radar, Tail Dopper Radar, Cloud Probes, SFMR
NOAA G-IV 1-45 kft 90h over 6 weeks ~300 dropsondes, Tail Doppler Radar, NOAA O3, SFMR
DOE G-1 with ~40 instruments
1-23 kft 120h over 8 weeks
Cloud properties (Liq/water content, size), aerosol properties (concentration, size, CCN), trace gases (H2O, O3, CO)
NOAA R.H. Brown Can move ≤ 5 deg/day to stay within AR
30 days AMF2: Aerosol Observing System, Ka ,X, W-Band Cloud Radars, DOE, Micropulse LIDAR, Wind Speed, Rain Guages RS-92 Sondes: ~260 (~half dedicated overpass time)
• Interagency Campaign: • Scripps (Marty Ralph, Kim Prather) • NOAA (Allen White, Ryan Spackman) • DOE (PI: L. Ruby Leung) ACAPEX = ARM
Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment • White paper at • http://esrl.noaa.gov/psd/calwater
10/17/2015 Gambacorta et al. 38
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GRUAN and JPSS funded Dedicated (S-NPP) RAOB Sites Over 10,000 RAOBS (1000 dedicated) available since July 2013
N P R O V S +
39
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CALWATER RAOB collocated with NUCAPS
All (169)
Collocated with NUCAPS (150)
40
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Collocated with NUCAPS +/- 1 hour, 50km
(61)
Collocated with NUCAPS +/- 1 hour, 50km IR+MW pass QC
(24)
41 CALWATER RAOB collocated with NUCAPS
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H20 frac +/- 6hr
Sample of NUCAPS IR which pass QC ECMWF Analysis MIRS NPP Test NUCAPS NPP
Baseline: Reference Sonde GRUAN RAOB
42
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ECMWF Analysis MIRS NPP Test NUCAPS NPP Baseline: Reference Sonde GRUAN RAOB
43 Sample of NUCAPS IR which pass QC
H20 frac +/- 1hr
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ECMWF 12Z ( Feb 7th) to 6Z (Feb 8th)
12Z 18Z
00Z 06Z
X
X X
X
44
650 hPa
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SAT @ 1003Z … ECMWF @ 12Z … RAOB @ 1000Z
RAOB ECMWF Analysis MIRS NPP NUCAPS (old)
45
xxxxx best collocated
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SAT @ 2123Z … ECMWF @ 18Z … RAOB @ 2032Z 46
xxxxx
RAOB ECMWF Analysis MIRS NPP NUCAPS (old)
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SAT @ 2123Z … ECMWF @ 00Z … RAOB @ 2032Z 47
xxxxx
RAOB ECMWF Analysis MIRS NPP NUCAPS (old)
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SAT @ 2123Z … ECMWF @ 00Z … RAOB @ 2138Z 48
xxxxx
RAOB ECMWF Analysis MIRS NPP NUCAPS (old)
best collocated
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SAT @ … ECMWF @ 06Z … RAOB @ 0256Z 49
xxxxx
RAOB ECMWF Analysis
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SAT @ … ECMWF @ 06Z … RAOB @ 0435Z 50
xxxxx
RAOB ECMWF Analysis
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SAT @ 21Z Feb 7th … ECMWF @ 18Z
NUCAPS IR+MW
NUCAPS MW only
650 hPa H20 Vapor
ECMWF ANL
51
NUCAPS IR+MW
NUCAPS MW-only
MiRS NPP
ECMWF ANL
X X
X X
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SAT @ 2123Z … ECMWF @ 18Z … RAOB @ 2032Z 52
xxxxx
RAOB ECMWF Analysis MIRS NPP NUCAPS (old)
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SUMMARY • Independent validation of respective product system characteristic performance provided by NPROVS and NPROVS+
• “NARCS” tracks LTM characteristic performance and targets areas of improvement for respective systems; datasets and interface available via web site
• PDISP analysis of collocations with conventional and reference/dedicated RAOB provides more detailed assessments down to “deep dive”; datasets and interface available via web site
• NUCAPS and MiRS test products appear better …
• Product performance generally rooted in first guess …
• Performance in unique weather environments (Cold Core and CALWATER) justifies ongoing AWIPS-2 efforts to disseminate (NUCAPS) soundings to NWS field offices … and they want them!
53
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54
Integrating uncertainty in
satellite products cal/val
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Given two measurement (m1, m2), their uncertainty (u1, u2) and variability (σ), then two observations are consistent if “k” .le. 2
22
21
221 uukmm ++<− σ
… in following plots : K = ABS(X – GRUAN) / u
where u is 1)GRUAN or 2)NASA v6 “error”
1) Need uncertainty estimates for EDR 2) Need Sigma (but not today)
GRUAN Reference Measurement Principles
55
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Integrated GRUAN and JPSS Funded Dedicated (S-NPP) RAOB Sites Over 10,000 RAOBS (1000 Dedicated) available since July 2013
N P R O V S +
56
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“k” based on GRUAN Uncertainty
Temperature Temperature
AIRS AQUA ECMWF NUCAPS NPP Baseline: GRUAN Radiosonde
57
“Spec” RMS 2
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H20 vapor fraction H20 Mix Ratio
AIRS AQUA ECMWF NUCAPS NPP Baseline: GRUAN Radiosonde
58
“Spec” RMS
“k” based on GRUAN Uncertainty 2
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GRUAN Radiosonde ECMWF NUCAPS NPP Baseline: AIRS AQUA
59 “k” based on AIRS v.6 (Uncertainty?)
Temp H20 Mix Ratio
“k” based on AIRS v6 “error”
“k” based on AIRS v6 “error”
2 2
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60 10-day sample of collocations containing MiRS v.11 and
Oper MW soundings which pass QC
Land
Sea