NIGCOMSAT Communications Satellite & Research and Development Training Centre

Cloud Computing Simulation Center for Global Early Warning System (GEWS)

Chris Uwaje (FNCS)Connect Technologies Ltd.

Takeshi Utsumi, Ph.D.GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation Association in the U.S.A.

(GLOSAS/USA)

These two projects are Nigerian version of Global Early Warning System (GEWS) with Global University System (GUS), which Dr. Utsumi has been working in the past four decades, and which will be described below.

1

Principles ofInformation and Knowledge Societies

Information SocietyPacket-switching technology

Sharing

Knowlege SocietyDistributed Simulation technology

Collaboration

Global PeaceSharing and Collaboration

The 21st century is said to be Information and Knowledge Societies.

The information society requires advanced telecom network based on packet-switching technology which principle is based on SHARING for reducing its high cost of utilizing valuable telecom network.

The knowledge society would be based on globally COLLABORATIVE creativity, which would require distributed simulation technology for hands-on experiential learning with “multiple heads is better than single” principle.

Ultimate goal of our education ought to be GLOBAL PEACE, which can only be attained with SHARING AND COLLABORATION.

2

Global Early Warning System (GEWS)

GEWS with a globally distributed computer simulation system focuses on the issue of environment and sustainable development in developing countries, and train would-be decision makers in crisis management, conflict resolution, and negotiation techniques basing on "facts and figures."

We plan to develop a socio-economic-environmental simulation system and a climate simulation system in parallel fashion, both of which are to be interconnected in global scale.

The GEWS we have designed, in collaboration with experts at the Millennium Institute in Washington DC and other noteworthy institutions worldwide, is a global network of mini-supercomputers that can directly address fundamental issues of human wellbeing. It will consist of regional “hubs,” each with its own supercomputer. It will receive data on matters such as land use, water use, agriculture, energy sources and use, health systems, commercial marketplaces; and other matters of everyday living. It will assemble the data into “models” and “games” (i.e., “what-if” type policy analysis). By seeing the models, current and aspiring leaders can consider rational choices; by playing the games, they can project the consequences of alternate choices.

This dynamic system will also be a unique training tool. We are particularly interested in training young people -- especially young women – in leadership skills, conflict management, negotiating, and related skills.

3

Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming (GCEPG)Globally Distributed Climate Simulation System

Globally Distributed Socio-Economic-Environmental Simulation System

Two Tier System

One for training young would-be decision makers in crisis management, conflict resolution, and negotiation techniques basing on “facts and figures,”The other for helping decision makers construct a globally distributed decision-support system for positive sum/win-win alternatives to conflict and war.

E-mail and multimedia World Wide Web of Internet so far contributed significantly to the world society on the dissemination of information. The next phase of the Internet development with global neural computer networks should be the globally collaborative experiential learning and constructive creation of wisdom with interactive actions on virtual reality simulation models of joint global research and development projects on various subjects.

Our GEWS teams around the world will construct their own country socio-economic-energy-environment simulation models which will be interlinked together to perform as if a single global scale supercomputer.

The basic principle of climate simulation is four dimension (X-Y-Z and time) to solve a set of simultaneous partial differential equations, and ignoring national boundaries. On the other hand, the basic principle of socio-economic-energy simulation is two dimension (X and time) to solve simultaneous ordinary differential equations, and cannot ignore national boundaries. Those two camps do not talk each other, hence, we try to construct the Globally Distributed Socio-Economic-Environmental Simulation System in parallel to the Globally Distributed Climate Simulation System -- both of which are to be linked each other only at the very necessary locations and for the valuables.

The dynamic simulation tool promotes long-term national development planning. It will allow users to identify the set of policies that lead towards a desired goal. This insight deepens understanding of critical development challenges. For young decision-makers, this provides a simulator/trainer similar to those for nuclear power plants.

This will promote trustful friendship among youngsters around the world to realize the Knowledge Society of the 21st century, and their collective creativity will enlarge the size of pie for stakeholders to reach peaceful win-win consequences. Senator Fulbright once said that learning together and working together are the first steps toward world peace.

4

Three Necessary Components for GEWS

1. Telecommunication Infrastructure Packet-Switching Telecommunication

Internet2. Communication Means

E-mail Multimedia

3. Game Players Global University System

In order to realize his dream, Dr. Utsumi helped extend the U.S. data communication networks (based on the packet-switching technology, which is Internet nowadays) to various overseas countries, particularly to Japan, since early 1970s.

He then helped to de-regulate Japanese telecommunication policies on the use of email with a help from the Late Commerce Secretary Malcom Baldrige, which has been emulated in many countries, as having more than 2.5 billion email users around the world nowadays -- as even bringing the so-called “Arab Spring.” As you know, the email has been upgraded to multimedia, too.

Dr. Utsumi then initiated the Global University System (GUS) project with a fund from the World Bank, as having Prof. Tapio Varis of the University of Tampere, Finland, to be its acting president. He is a former Rector of the UN University of Peace in Costa Rica, and this GUS project is now a part of his UNESCO/UNITWIN Networking Chair Program.

GUS in each country will assist the model building, maintenance, and administration as well as the gaming execution.

5

Paul Baran(April, 29, 1926 - March 26, 2011)

Inventor ofPacket-switching Data Telecom Technology

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/28/technology/28baran.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha26

He was Dr. Utsumi’s long-standing friend.6

Deregulation of Japanese Telecom Policy for the Use of Email

April 6 1982

Electronic Mail

This is a historical evidential document for which Dr. Utsumi spent substantial amount of his private funds for the deregulation of the use of email and hence other social communication media, as mentioned previously.

7

Move Mountain（Gu-Kou-I-San)

Chinese wordJapanese

PronunciationEnglish

愚 GU Stupid

公 KOU Fellow

移 I Move

山 SAN Mountain

Even a stupid fellow can move a mountain.

STUPID FELLOW -- like Dr. Utsumi -- could move a huge mountain. Then, why not you, since you are smarter than he.

Do you know Dr. Tom Mensah? He is a Ghanaian, He invented the fast extrusion of optical fiber -- from 5 meter/second to 50 meter/second. His invention plummeted its cost to the equivalent of a copper wire, and thus, proliferated broadband Internet around the world nowadays.

Do you know Dr. Victor Lawrence? He is also a Ghanaian, and he is the Chairman of Baharicom which cooperate with NEPAD and French Telecom to deploy ultra high speed submarine optical fiber net at 5 tera bps with US$700 million.

In other words, they are now really “CHANGING THE WORLD!!”

Dr. Lawrence recently proposed us to cosponsor workshop with his Baharicom, Stevens Institute of Technology and NEPAD -- which workshop may be held at Columbia University.

8

Iron Rule #1 of Simulation

Make Simulation close to SIMULAND

as much as possible.

Dr. Utsumi emphasizes the importance of this basic iron rule, basing on his experiences on computer simulation over the past half century.

He served the General Chairman of the Summer Computer Simulation Conference (SCSC) in Boston in 1971.

When Dr. Utsumi listened the presentation of the well publicized “Limits to the Growth” by Dennis Meadows with aggregated world model at this conference, he immediately noticed its flaw violating this basic simulation rule.

This initiated the distributed computer simulation methodology, which is the basic principle of our GEWS -- for example, Japanese know Japan better than anyone else, hence the world model should include Japanese model -- of course, the same would apply for other countries.

9

1. Increase of Credibility

2. Data Security

3. Flexibility

a. Use of any language within local simulation

b. Same for methodology, machine, etc.

4. Participatory Democracy with Bottom-up Decision

5. Cooperation for Better Understanding

6. Suitable for Large-scale, Confrontation-prone, Global problems

Advantages of Distributed Simulation

10

T21 Architecture <http://www.millenniuminstitute.net/integrated_planning/tools/T21>

Cause and Effect Diagram

The System Dynamic methodology was initiated by Prof. Jay W. Forrester of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dr. Utsumi’s professor.

Its main feature is to draw a cause and effect diagram to analyze and understand the complex inter-relations among various social factors with the so-called “Cause-and-Effect” diagram.

This diagram shows main sectors of society, economy and environment, which can further be subdivided to many other sectors, as indicated in this diagram.

Computer simulation is vital necessity for forecasting the future of complex global phenomena, since such a complexity is simply beyond the comprehension of human intuition.

11

Examples of Policy Analysis

• Mr. Al Gore recently proposed to replace fossil fuel with renewable one to generate electricity in the USA in ten years.

• President Obama also recently proposed to supply 20% of the US total electricity generation with wind energy by the year 2030, compared with only 0.8% currently.

• 97% of Nigerian government revenue comes from oil export, and 40% of its low-sulphur crude oil export is to north America for electricity generation. This will be nullified if Mr. Al Gore’s and/or President Obama’s propositions would succeed, thus, significant blow to the Nigerian government.

We will demonstrate the verification of this energy policy proposition with the combined use of “normative (role-playing)” gaming and “quantitative (model-based)” simulation at our workshop to be held at Columbia University -- hopefully in his coming fall. Incidentally, this is a “paradigm shift” in the international political relations/science which is an advanced approach that sets a new and high standard in the search for human and sustainable national development.

Incidentally, the normative gaming on the “Oil Production and Human Right” has been conducted at the School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) of the Columbia University by Dr. Utsumi’s colleagues -- one of them is Mr. Donal Oneil who teaches it from London, and he was the President of Shell Oil Development Company in Port Harcourt for more than a dozen years.

Using games and simulations, we will examine the effect of this on oil revenue in Niger Delta, and the consequences to Nigeria’s economic and social structures. We will balance the domestic consequences of the proposal with global considerations -- the national consequences for Nigeria, which could be devastating.

After this event, we plan to continue this gaming/simulation exercise in collaborative fashion between Columbia University and Nigerian universities, e.g., Obafemi Awolowo University, Rivers State University of Science and Technology in Port Harcourt, etc.

Our major partner, Millennium Institute in Washington, DC has already constructed Nigerian national energy-economy model, which will be followed by similar ones of the 15 member countries of ECOWAS. We hope they could be in our Cloud Computing Simulation Center of GEWS/Nigeria in Abuja, as utilizing the supercomputer located in Cape Town, South Africa, which has been donated by IBM.

12

Global University System (GUS)Worldwide consortium of educational and healthcare institutions and NGOs, particularly benefiting those in remote/rural areas of developing countries for the eradication of poverty and isolation.

Learners in those countries will be able to take their courses, via advanced broadband Internet, from member institutions around the world to receive a GUS degree.

Learns, instructors and reserchers of partner institutions will also form a global forum for exchange of ideas and information and for conducting collaborative research and development with the emerging global GRID computer network technology.

Thus, the higher education institutions will close the digital divide, act as the knowledge center of their community and lead their development.

13

Principle of Global E-Learning

Collaborative Learning

Experiential Learning

Objective Learning

Autonomous Learning

14

E-LearningE-Healthcare

UniversityKnowledge Center

GlobalPartnership

CommunityDevelopment

University: Leader of Community in the Knowledge Society

in the 21st Century

The word “University” has a connotation of “universe.” Hence, the university in remote/rural areas of developing countries ought to act as the knowledge center of their community for the eradication of poverty and isolation through the use of advanced Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs).

The university has to provide not only e-learning and e-healthcare services to their community, but also to lead their community development.

It also ought to be the gateway for globally collaborative research and development as fostering the Global Creative Economy in the borderless Knowledge Society of the 21st century.

Goal of GUS: The GUS is a world-wide initiative to create broadband Internet infrastructure and educational programs for access to educational resources across national and cultural boundaries for global peace.Education and job skills are the keys in determining a nation's wealth and influence.

Activities of GUS: GUS has group activities in the major regions of the globe in partnership with higher learning and healthcare institutions.  They foster the establishment of GUS in their respective regions, with the use of an advanced global broadband Internet virtual private network.  Those institutions affiliated with GUS become members of the GUS/UNESCO/UNITWIN Networking Chair Program located at the University of Tampere in Finland.

15

GLORIAD Topology

http://www.gloriad.org/gloriaddrupal/

Dr. Greg Cole at the University of Tennessee, one of Dr. Utsumi’s long-standing colleagues, has developed broadband Internet in northern hemisphere with the National Science Foundation fund. We are advocating African countries to join in this network of several hundreds higher educational institutions.

16

17

2

7

65

816

15

14

13

12

1110

9

3

1

4

18

o19

20

31

30

32

21

22

23

2425

26

27

28

29

33/E22

34

36/E2037/E19

38/E18 39/E15

43/E8

45

46/E8

49

48

5152

E5

56

44

43

E2

Southern & Eastern Links

47

E4 43

50

E3

E13

38/E18

35

Planned / Funded

Existing

LINKS:

Required

Proposed Submarine cables

The NEPAD ICT Broadband Infrastructure Network for

West, Central and North Africa

2005

http://www.eafricacommission.org/projects/126/nepad-ict-broadband-infrastructure-network

Dr. Victor Lawrence at Stevens Institute of Technology is the Chairman of Baharicom, which is a Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) type of initiative of the African Union and is a part of the Africa Coast to Europe (ACE) program of the French Telecom (and many other European carriers). They are deploying ultra high-speed optical fiber submarine cable at US$700 million.

Baharicom works with NEPAD which is setting up UHURUNET (a submarine segment) and UMOJANET (a terrestrial segment).

17

Japanese government pledged US$4 billion to construct transportation highway, which connects sub-saharan African countries at the TICAD-IV conference in Yokohama in 2008.

The World Bank figure says that 43% of deploying cost of optical fiber is for digging road.

We are advocating to utilize this opportunity of constructing transportation highway to deploy ultra high speed optical fiber network along the transportation highway.

Dr. Utsumi obtained this diagram from the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Tokyo last spring, but unfortunately, those transportation highway constructions seems fragmented and no coordination to include the deployment of optical fiber network along the transportation highway.

Dr. Utsumi is hence deeply afraid if the Japanese taxpayers money is not effectively utilized.

18

Financing

GUS projects will combine (1) the Japanese government's Official Development Assistance (ODA) funds and (2) Japanese electronic equipment with

(a) the Internet technology and (b) content development of North America and Europe,

to help underserved people in rural and remote areas of developing countries by closing the digital divide.

Mr. Naoto Kan, Japanese Prime Minister, is a junior alumni of Dr. Utsumi’s alma mater, Tokyo Institute of Technology.

He pledged US$3.5 billion to assist education and $5 billion to assist healthcare in developing countries at the occasion of the General Assembly of the United Nations last fall.

Dr. Utsumi has been encouraging his colleagues to utilize it, as forming GEWS/GUS, and applying to them through the Foreign Ministries of their countries.

19

GLOSAS Projects(GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation

Association in the U.S.A.)http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/

Click “Current Reference Websites” in this home page.

Takeshi Utsumi, Ph.D., P.E.

Chairman, GLOSAS/USA

Laureate of Lord Perry Award for Excellence in Distance Education

Founder and V.P. for Technology and Coordination of Global University System (GUS)

Thanks to these efforts and also for initiating the movement of global e-learning since early 1980s, Dr. Utsumi of GLOSAS/USA received the prestigious Lord Perry Award for the Excellence in Distance Education in the fall of 1994 from Lord Perry, the founder of the U.K. Open University. The two-year senior recipient of the same award was Sir Arthur C. Clark, the inventor of satellite.

20

Thank you for your listening.

21