Nidal Salim, Walter Wildi Institute F.-A. Forel, University of Geneva, Switzerland Impact of global...

Nidal Salim , Walter Wildi

Institute F.-A. Forel, University of Geneva, Switzerland

Impact of global climate change on water resources in the Israeli, Jordanian and

Palestinian region

curriculum in natural environmental science, 2005

Regional map of North Africa and Meadle East


1. Introduction and objectives.2. Climate and variations in climate.3. Water Resources.4. Trend relation between climate change and water resources .5. Impact6. Vulnerability.7. Conclusions and Results8. Recommendations.

Main Topics


The study area isdivided into threemain geographical

regions: 1. Coastal area

2. Mountain area

3. Desert area


Schematic diagram of the Water Cycle, combination of climatic

parameters and water resourcescurriculum in natural environmental science, 2005

Rainfall geographical distribution


1. Coastal area 2. Mountain area. 3. Dessert

Average monthly rainfall, potential evaporation, and average daily maximum and minimum temperatures for

three different geographical regions


Groundwater resources : the 20 basins


Precipitation tends to be very seasonal; in the Middle East countries.

Temperature shows a real increase trend

Observed annual precipitation (top) and temperature (bottom) changes for the Middle East/Arid Asia region.


4. Observed trend in climate 1. Precipitation: Trend to a decrease in some areas and

an increase in others. Almost stable, combined with some

features: • markedly increased in intensity. Alpert et al. (2000)• Increased frequency of extreme weather events

• increased seasonal variability due to a decrease in the (T max and T min, respectively).

• Shortened rainy season

2. Temperature: A spatial analysis shows warming (Ben-Gai et al. 1998a, 1999).

3. Evapotranspiration: a trend of decreasing was measured in the eastern Mediterranean. And a trend of increasing measured in the whole land area.


• The water level monitored continuously since 1930.• Declined over 21 m from 1930 to 1997.

Water Level of the Dead Sea


Groundwater level trend (1982-98) – Mountain area

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Wa

ter

lev

el

(m)

Wa

ter

lev

el

(m)

55

50

45

40

255

250

245

240

2351980 1985 1990 1995 2000


Groundwater level trend (1982-98) – Desert area

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Wa

ter

lev

el

(m)

740

735

730

725

720

Wa

ter

lev

el

(m)

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

740

735

730

725


Changes in precipitation behavior attests to the sensitivity of systems to climate change in the following forms.

1. The increased rainfall intensity will increased surface run-off.

2. Increasing the frequencies and intensities of surface run-off events, causing:

• topsoil erosion and loss of water • further loss of vegetation and higher run-off events • Reduced infiltration rates which will also reduce aquifer

recharge and water availability.


3. Increased run-off, coupled with sea level rise lead to the creation of swamps and Salt water intrusion.

4. A decrease in the hydraulic slope between drainage systems (or streams) and sea level reduces the efficiency of water transfer and increases the probability of flooding.

5. changes in land use and vegetation significantly reduces the permeability of the underlying soil.

Arid region could experience large decrease in runoff of up to 40% in some basins.

Changes in precipitation behavior attests to the sensitivity of systems to climate change in the following forms (continued):


Source and use of water


Traditionally, water resources systems are designed on the assumption that the statistical characteristics of the prevailing climatic and hydrometeorological processes never change stationary). It is absolutely necessary that future projects are designed, and all projects are operated, taking into account the fact that climate is non-stationary.

Climate change influence is completely dependent and it will not be easily studied seperated by other factors like climate, landuse, landcover, water cycle and anthropogenic factor.

• The dominant hydrological characteristic of the area is the combination of aridity and uncertainty.

Conclusion


• Hydrology: requires better understanding of the impact of climate change on reservoirs and aquifers.

• Assessing water demand requires better understanding of climate change impacts on soil, vegetation, natural and agricultural ecosystems.

• Hydrological as well as socio-economic studies attempting to predict the gap between supply and demand

should not only incorporate social, demographic and political changes, but also the impacts of climate change

Recommendations


Nidal Salim, Walter Wildi Institute F.-A. Forel, University of Geneva, Switzerland Impact of global...

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