NFIB Small Business Confidence January 2012

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Transcript of NFIB Small Business Confidence January 2012

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    NFIBSMALL BUSINESS

    ECONOMIC TRENDS

    NFIBSMALL BUSINESS

    ECONOMIC TRENDS

    William C. DunkelbergHolly Wade

    January 2012

    S M A L L B U S I N E S S O P T I M I S M I N D E X C O M P O N E N T S

    Seasonally Change From Contribution

    Index Component Adjusted Level Last Month Index Change

    Plans to Increase Employment 6% -1 -5%Plans to Make Capital Outlays 24% 0 0%Plans to Increase Inventories 2% 2 10%

    Expect Economy to Improve -8% 4 20%

    Expect Real Sales Higher 9% 5 27%Current Inventory 0% 1 5%Current Job Openings 15% -1 -5%Expected Credit Conditions -9% 1 5%

    Now a Good Time to Expand 10% 2 10%Earnings Trend -22% 6 33%Total Change 19 100%

    Based on a Survey of Small and Independent Business Owners

    Column 1is the current reading; column 2 is the change from the prior month; column 3 the percent of the total changeaccounted for by each component; * is under 1 percent and not a meaningful calculation.

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    The NFIB Research Foundation has collected

    Small Business Economic Trends Data with Quar-terly surveys since 1973 and monthly surveys since

    1986. The sample is drawn from the membership

    files of the National Federation of Independent

    Business (NFIB). Each was mailed a question-

    naire and one reminder. Subscriptions for twelve

    monthly SBET issues are $250. Historical and

    unadjusted data are available, along with a copy

    of the questionnaire, from the NFIB Research

    Foundation. You may reproduce Small Business

    Economic Trends items if you cite the publica-tion name and date and note it is a copyright of

    the NFIB Research Foundation. NFIB Research

    Foundation. ISBS #0940791-24-2. Chief Econo-

    mist William C. Dunkelberg and Policy Analyst

    Holly Wade are responsible for the report.

    NFIBSMALL BUSINESS

    ECONOMIC TRENDS

    IN THIS ISSUE

    Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

    Commentary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

    Optimism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

    Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

    Earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

    Sales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

    Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

    Employment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

    Compensation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

    Credit Conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

    Inventories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

    Capital Outlays. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

    Most Important Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

    Survey Profile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

    Economic Survey. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

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    1

    |NFIBSmallBusinessEcono

    micTrends

    MonthlyReport

    SUMMARY

    OPTIMISM INDEX

    The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 1.8 points to 93.8.

    Decembers increase is the fourth monthly gain, totaling 5.7 points overall.

    About half of last months gain was due to reduced concerns about

    business conditions 6 months ahead and improved expectations for real

    sales gains. One-third of the gain was due to a much welcomed 6 point

    improvement in profit trends.

    LABOR MARKETS

    Fifteen (15) percent (seasonally adjusted) reported hard to fill job

    openings, down 1 point but the second highest reading in 39 months. Over the

    next three months, 9 percent plan to increase employment (down 2 points),

    and 8 percent plan to reduce their workforce (down 3 points), yielding a

    seasonally adjusted net 6 percent of owners planning to create new jobs.This is a 1 point decline from November but still one of the strongest

    readings for 2011 and the second highest reading since September 2008. Forty-

    five (45) percent of owners hired or tried to hire in the past 3 months, but

    34 percent of them reported few or no qualified applicants for the

    position(s). The NFIB unemployment forecast models (based on reports of

    poor sales or on job openings and plans to increase employment shown

    below) indicates that the unemployment rate will drift into the mid to low

    8 percent range in 2012.

    CAPITAL SPENDING

    The frequency of reported capital outlays over the past 6 months rose 3

    points to 56 percent, the third monthly increase in succession after vacillating

    between 44 and 52 percent since December 2008. The record low of 44

    percent was reached most recently in August 2010. Overall, the spending

    picture has improved, but still far short of normal. The percent of owners

    planning capital outlays in the next 3 to 6 months held at 24 percent, the

    highest reading in 40 months, also reached in March and November of this

    year. Money is available, but most owners are not interested in a loan tofinance the purchase of equipment they dont need.

    INVENTORIES AND SALES

    The net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher

    nominal sales over the past 3 months gained 4 points, rising to a net

    negative 7 percent, still more firms report sales trending down than up.

    The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales gained 5 points to a

    net 9 percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) after posting an 8 point

    improvement in November, but still stood 4 points below Januarysreading. A net negative 10 percent of all owners reported growth in

    inventories (seasonally adjusted), unchanged. For all firms, a net 0 percent

    (up 1 point) reported stocks too low, still a very satisfied reading based

    on survey history. Overall, it appears that small business owners have

    reduced inventories to acceptable levels given the outlook for sales growth.

    This survey was conducted in December 2011. A sample of 3,938 small-business owners/members was drawn.

    Seven hundred thirty-five (735) usable responses were received a response rate of 19 percent.

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    2

    |NFIBSmallBusinessEconomicTrends

    MonthlyReport

    INFLATION

    Seasonally adjusted, the net percent raising selling prices was 0 percent,

    unchanged from November but 10 to 15 points below April, May and June

    readings. This indicates little pressure on prices overall. Twenty-one (21)

    percent plan on raising average prices in the next few months, 4 percent

    plan reductions. Seasonally adjusted, a net 14 percent plan price hikes,

    down 1 point. With some evidence that spending has picked up, some of

    these price hikes might stick.

    EARNINGS AND WAGES

    Reports of positive earnings trends were 6 points better in December at a

    net negative 22 percent of all owners. The improvement in retail sales

    gave some owners a needed boost. Not seasonally adjusted, 16 percentreported profits higher (up 2 points), and 37 percent reported profits falling

    (down 3 points). Still, profits showed a dismal performance historically.

    Compensation costs are rising, but not at a rapid rate. Six percent reported

    reduced worker compensation and 12 percent reported raising

    compensation, yielding a seasonally adjusted net 10 percent reporting

    higher worker compensation, unchanged from November and matching the

    highest reading since November 2008. However, the numbers are

    historically low. A seasonally adjusted net 5 percent plan to raise

    compensation in the coming months, 4 points lower than November, norush to raise compensation to attract workers.

    CREDIT MARKETS

    Four percent reported financing as their #1 business problem, not an issue

    compared to weakness in sales or taxes or the cost of regulation. Ninety-

    three (93) percent reported that all their credit needs were met or that they

    were not interested in borrowing. Seven percent reported that not all of

    their credit needs were satisfied. The record low is 4 percent, reached in

    2000. Fifty (50) percent said they did not want a loan but increases to 64

    percent when including those who did not answer the question, presumably

    uninterested in borrowing as well. Twenty-three (23) percent of the owners

    reported that weak sales continued to be their top business problem, so

    investments in new equipment or new workers are not likely to pay off

    by generating enough additional earnings to repay the loan required to

    finance the investment. Thirty-one (31) percent of all owners reported

    borrowing on a regular basis, down 3 points. A net 8 percent reported

    loans harder to get compared to their last attempt (asked of regular

    borrowers only), down 2 points. The average rate paid on short maturity

    loans fell to 5.9 percent. The net percent of owners expecting credit

    conditions to ease in the coming months was a seasonally adjusted

    negative 9 percent (more owners expect that it will be harder to arrange

    financing than easier), a 1 point improvement over November. The

    December reading is the least negative since November 2008, so

    confidence in the financial markets ability to provide desired financial

    services may be recovering.

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