WHERE WILL THIS CONFERENCE

LEAD THE MIDDLE EAST?

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

A word from the Secretary General… Matthew Norley

Articles of your very devoted journalists:

۩ Syria: A Flicker through the Story by Kainat Hussain

۩ Israel – Then, Now and the Indefinite Future by Tamir Morgan

۩ Seeking for Coherence by Margaux Lucas

۩ Iran Alarmed by Turning Tides against Assad by Sofia Majorova

۩ The Middle Eastern conflict is like a Petrushka: a crisis in a crisis in a crisis by Ahyskel Leon

Presentation of our two special guest speakers :

Nadim Shehadi & Michelle Pace

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DEAR HEADS OF STATE,

MINISTERS & DELEGATES,

Written by Matthew Ribeiro Norley Secretary General

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It is a great honour to welcome you to the 5-

year edition of the University of Birmingham’s

Model Arab League Crisis Conference. I can assure

you that this weekend will be filled with unexpected

twists and plots that will make this Crisis Conference

an unforgettable experience for all of you.

I should warn you that the balance of power

in the Middle East is extremely delicate, and the

interests of several states are at play following

heightened tensions in Syria… It is in this context

that some of you will be called to a special summit in

Cairo, where you will be expected to lobby with

other ministers in the aim of reaching a peaceful

solution to the turmoil. As ministers, however, the

fate of the region is in your hands. You will have the

power to determine the course of action your nation

will take as the crisis unfolds, and will be forced to

make the decision between war and peace, while

being fully aware of the consequences your actions

will have on the region.

Organising this conference was a bit like

taking a module in Middle Eastern Affairs, but

better. The long hours researching the government

structures of several Arabic states, the roles and

endeavours of different ministers, and learning

about the fascinating ideological divide that

underpins the region, has certainly paid off in the

end! It’s fair to say, I have lived and breathed the

Arab League for the last five months and I’m looking

forward to witnessing the climax this weekend!

But of course none of this would ever be

possible without the help of the outstanding

organising committee that includes The Crisis, Press

and Logistics Teams. These people have truly put in

the hours to make this experience as enjoyable for

you as possible, and a few words on a page simply

do not justify how incredible they have been, thank

you!

For those of you new to Crisis conferences,

be prepared to embark on a weekend of conflict,

diplomacy, compromise, espionage and deceit. You

will have to think on your feet and react to the most

complex issues that could be faced by any state.

Remember to keep your friends close and your

enemies closer… The road to power is paved with

hypocrisy, and causality.

I hope you enjoy being a part of UoBMAL 2014! ۩

Credit: BBC News

SYRIA: A FLICKER THROUGH THE STORY

Written by Kainat Hussain

Dictator, coup, revolution, conflict, western intervention, hegemony, militia, rebels… the list of words goes on to

describe what quickly escalated into what we now know to be the Syrian Civil War. As the University of

Birmingham Model Arab League embarks on a weekend of intense debate full of uncompromising Arab Leaders

with a history unresolved and forever complicated conflicts, we must not desensitise ourselves from the very

serious crisis of thousands of Syrians fighting and fleeing the civil war. Syria is most definitely the epitome of all

things related to an Arab Crisis.

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However, before shooting into the present it is

necessary to point out that the Syrian Arab Republic is no

stranger to the rampant politics of the Middle East, in

fact, its roots lie in the infamous Arab-Israeli Wars

starting in 1948. The Syrians unfortunately never had

their time to shine; their troops were always driven back

by the Israelis and they have always had to sign an

armistice with major losses militarily and geographically.

Hence, Syria has suffered major defeat despite being an

ally of major Arab countries such as Egypt (as shown in

1956 when Nasser merged Syria and Egypt to form the

United Arab Republic which lasted until 1961). (UoBMAL,

2014)

As well as defeat, Syria is no stranger to a coup as

it became a country run primarily by the Assad Family

through a military coup in 1970, when Hafez Al-Assad,

the Minister of Defence seized power. Since then, the

country has been run by the Assad Family and those loyal

to them such as the Alawite community (who make up

only 12% of the population). Bashar Al-Assad has been in

power since 2000 and although the country went through

some liberalisation, the tone quickly changed to one

resembling a government on its way to dictating. Media

became controlled, critics were imprisoned and economic

policies were made to please the elite. All this built up to

and erupted in 2011 with anti-government protests in

March 2011 after a group of teenagers were tortured for

painting revolutionary slogans. Assad’s unpopularity had

increased over the years and as Bente Scheller says “the

international community was so busy watching what was

going on in other states of the region” (BBC, 2014) when

Syria dived into one of the worst catastrophes of the Arab

Spring.

CIVIL WAR: WHAT ABOUT CIVILIANS?

There are three recognised factions fighting in

the civil war: the Free Syrian Army, the jihadist

movement who has claimed links with Al Qaeda and the

government forces of President Al Assad. The Free Syrian

Army is the main body backed by Western powers. There

are other rebel factions who are also fighting against

government troops. This brings back the longstanding

problem of a disjointed opposition which makes them

weaker and unable to resolve matters.

Through the civil war the Assad regime has been

accused of mass murder and using chemical weapons

against its own people. Examined photographs show

approximately 11,000 people killed by Syrian Security

forces. Professor David Crane, a member of the team of

lawyers asked to examine the evidence, aligns the scale

with the “kind of documentation since the Nazis and

Nuremberg". (Al-Jazeera, 2014)

Apart from the damage to the country’s

infrastructure and people, there is also the issue of

families that are seeking refuge in the neighboring

countries. There are misplaced people, desperate for

food and shelter. A report from last week shows that in

Lebanon alone the number of refugees has reached a

million. In a village near the border, the ratio of Syrian

refugees to Lebanese villagers is three to one with

everyone trying to accommodate with very little. (BBC,

2014) The question is how much can these countries do

to provide for the refugees and for how long? As

mentioned by UN Official Helen Clarke “These

[neighboring countries] are not wealthy countries either.

And migrants are often turned on by local

population “which makes the situation of the refugees

very insecure”. (Huffington, 2014)

IS GENEVA A KEY TO END THE CONFLICT?

The Civil War has displaced any sense of

normality in the lives of all Syrians for three years. The

world is now focused on the Geneva II Summit which

aims to put in place a transitional government, an idea

that is not backed by the three main factions fighting the

war. As observed by many, the discussion is not

developing as conversation rotates around who is to

blame. In a speech by the Syrian Foreign Minister Walid

al-Muallem he “mentioned the word ‘terrorism’ 34 times

in his 34-minute speech and made no reference

whatsoever to the possibility for political change.” (Al-

Jazeera, 2014) The UoBMAL have called for this Crisis

Conference to debate the issue of the Middle East during

this time of emergency in the region. Will the Syrian

Cabinet echo the desires of the peace summits in Geneva

or breathe the fire that is causing Syria to crumble? ۩

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ISRAEL, THEN, NOW & THE INDEFINITE

FUTURE.

WILL ISRAEL STAND THE TEST OF TIME?

Written by Tamir Morgan

Israel continues to contribute to make gargantuan economic strives, maintains technological advancement

unparalleled by most, and is pushing for a better, more peaceful future, what will happen to Netanyahu’s

teetering Israel? As Israel becomes trapped in cyclical disputes, how crucial will current negotiations with

Palestine prove to be and will Israel stand the grueling test of time?

February 2011. REUTERS / Baz Ratner: Part of the Wall

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65 years of war-riddled turbulent history,

numerous border disputes, and thousands of conflict-

related deaths later Israel is one of the wqorld’s most

technologically and economically developed states, and

has been for numerous years now. Israeli citizens

experience a standard of living comparable to that of

those living in Western European states, being a top 40

nation in terms of GDP per capita. A reputation for

monetary prudence, as claimed by PM Netanyahu at the

recent World Economic Forum in Davos, well merited.

Over time, Arab states have reluctantly come to terms

with the concept of Israel as a state, whether rightfully or

as a crusader. Israel has even experienced stretches of

relative peace during its brief history (things pre-Hamas

debatably looked bright). But, in the face of further

border disputes, what’s in store for this conspicuous pillar

of democracy?

Much of Israel’s future depends on its attitude

towards its neighbors. It is no secret that Israel’s best

form of defense against impending war is offence, to the

extent of it being a military policy. Israel realises that

(due to its dense population [24th globally] and finite

territorial depth) the battle should be fought on enemy

soil, therefore Israel hosts numerous settlements on the

West Bank, Palestinian Authority governed land. Whether

abhorrent or not, or subject to unilateral disengagement,

Israel has its motives for doing so: to protect itself from

potentially being overrun by its too-close-for-comfort

adversaries. Israel wants that buffer zone.

The late former Israeli PM, Ariel Sharon,

acknowledged that Israel and Palestine are unlikely to

make peace anytime soon, perhaps due to the fact that

effectively neither nation acknowledges each other as

human. Currently neither nation seems keen on

conceding Jerusalem, a tactical stronghold and a religious

site for Christians, Jews and Muslims, and past

discussions held in Oslo and the US have had minimal

effect on both participating nations. There’s a point to

prove for both. Under the status quo, what happens? Can

a deal finally materialise? Does Israel get driven into the

sea by Iranian backed, Hamas-incentivised Arab

opposition? Or does Israel become an Arab state by

default? The birth-rate for Israeli Arabs is after all

significantly higher than that of the Jewish and Druze

communities.

However justified Israel feels its actions are, their

behavior, considering that they are a world leading

economy and a liberal democracy, is at times damnable,

and receives no plaudits from the liberal left. Whether or

not Palestinians do throw the first proverbial stone, Israel

is not expected to return the favour, often giving better

than what they get (having one of the largest militaries

man-for-man globally.) A few days ago a Palestinian man

was hurling rocks from the Gaza Strip into Israel and was

subsequently shot dead. Israel openly and pre-emptively

oppresses both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank,

controlling all land and maritime borders to Gaza, as well

as airspace. The West Bank as well as East Jerusalem is

teaming with Israeli settlements, Israel’s intention being

heavy surveillance. This does not necessarily advocate

liberality as a concept.

Israel’s people, and specifically the Jewish

inhabitants of Israel, were promised a homeland, a land

that the Jews could call their own, and that’s what they

received. Since, or even immediately after Israel’s

founding in the Arab-Israeli War, the Arab world has

consistently tried to take it away from them, proclaiming

Israel to be “rogue”. The Jews would argue that they are

the indigenous people, but who really are the indigenous

people of Israel? The Arabs would perhaps argue that

they themselves are, and were for centuries preceding

the establishment of Israel. But whether they are or not,

Israel exists, and has done for a factor of five times my

lifetime. Will it continue to exist? Our children’s children

may know, and they will tell us, if Israel exists and

continues to develop ingenious technology to the point

of devising time travel.

Like states throughout the human timeline, Israel

may become homogenous to its surroundings through a

steady process of osmosis, but only time will tell. Political

authorities have a habit of forcing solutions down

throats, but, sincerely, only time will tell. That’s the way

the cookie crumbles. ۩

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COUNCIL OF THE ARAB LEAGUE:

SEEKING FOR

COHERENCE As UN Arab League envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi, is to be

the mediator of Geneva-2 international peace

conference on Syria, one can question the role played

by the Arab league in the long lasting Syrian conflict.

Written by Margaux Lucas

Three years ago, Tunisia initiated a wave of

protests in the Arab world. Soon followed by its North-

African neighbors, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Syria

joined the so-called Arab spring. The movement conveys

the yearning for dignity and liberty from peoples

submitted to authoritarian and corrupted regimes. The

principles claimed were parts of those presented in the

Arab Charter on Human Rights adopted in 2004. The

followings of the revolts are well-known. Tunisia stands

Arab League Secretary General Nabil al-Arabi (L) and Lebanese Foreign Affairs Minister Adnan Mansur (R) AFP Photo)

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to maintain democracy; Libya shades into chaos and Syria

tears apart in an awful civil war that threaten the stability

of the region. Former internal crisis, the pursuance of the

Arab springs became a core issue for the Middle East. The

Syrian conflict embodies the confessional and identity

crisis that divides the Arab world. Facing a growing

instability, the Arab world needs unity to overcome its

contemporary concerns.

THE ARAB LEAGUE, UNABLE TO FIND A COMMON

REMEDY TO THE CONFLICT

Several months after the beginning of the

protests, the Arab League meant to interfere into the

Syrian repression and prevent further violence. On

August 2011, Nabil Elaraby, Secretary General of the Arab

League, condemned the bloody crackdown and called for

an end of violence. The Arab League attempted to

encourage dialogue with Assad’s regime. Elaraby

reported that Assad was taking “series of measures (…)

that focused on national dialogue”. Within the

negotiations, the Syrian government agreed on the

withdrawal of tanks in the cities and pledged to release

prisoners and stop crackdown against peaceful

demonstrators. A dialogue with the opposition begun in

the following weeks, the Arab League monitored the

situation. Nevertheless, Assad Regime breached many of

its promises. On November 2011, the Arab League voted

to suspend Syria from the organization for the

government furthered violence against civilians. Syria’s

opposition was invited to join talks in the League’s

headquarters in Cairo. The Arab League pursued its

monitoring in Syria the following month. Monitors

recorded the rise of violence, comparing the crackdown

to genocide. As its weight against Assad weakened, the

organization pleaded with UN Security Council members

to put “all possible pressure on Syria” to lead her joining

the Arab peace plan. Meanwhile, Assad carried on the

bloodshed. The Arab League faced the inefficiency of its

action and decided to withdraw its observers from Syria.

Because of the worsening of violence, the monitoring

mission was suspended. Since then, the Arab League

remains quiet, unable to lead discussion or to initiate

action. Even though the war is crucial to the region, its

solving is left to the international community. For a

common solution within the Arab League turns out to be

impossible to reach, Arab Nations chose to lead isolated

actions, serving at the best their interests.

SOLVING THE SYRIAN STRUGGLE,

BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL OBJECTIVES AND

CONFESSIONAL DISPUTE

The failure of the Arab League in its dealing of the

Syrian crisis unveiled to its member States its lack of

authority. The organization is unable to encourage peace

nor to condemn Syria’s exactions. Positions among the

community are divided. Power is splitting up. The Arab

League lacks coherence and unity. Its deficiencies

encourage lonely initiatives in the conflict. These

individuals interference fall within States’ interests. For

instance, the Arab Springs offer a tribune to the tiny

Qatar Monarchy. Qatar now means to weigh in the

world’s affairs. It aims to break up with its traditional

mediator role. In a discreet way, the Kingdom interferes

into conflicts and struggles through its TV Channel, Al

Jazeera. To Saudi Arabia, Syria embodies a key

geopolitical issue, a confessional struggle between Sunni

Islam, carried by Saudi Arabia, and Shiite Islam extolled

by Iran and Syria. Saudi Arabia fights for the supremacy

of Sunni Islam in the Middle East by backing rebel

factions, opposed to the Shiite Syrian government. As the

interference of Iran on the side of the government

strengthened, Saudi Arabia relied on the West answers to

Syria’s crackdowns to repulse its rival influence in the

region. The condemnations never came. Geneva-2

conference crawls all Sunni hopes to counter Teheran.

As the Arab nations are heading for an eagerly

awaited crisis Committee at Birmingham, the Arab

League need to find its unity in the core principles of its

Charter. Its withdrawal condemns Syrian people to an

everlasting slaughter. The League must build a common

interest and response to the conflict around Human

rights and dignity, carried by the main streams of its

religion. ۩

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IRAN ALARMED BY TURNING TIDES AGAINST

ASSAD - SYRIA PEACETALKS WITHOUT IRAN

Written by Sofia Majorova

Iran is bounded to Syria, its only Arab ally through common religion, the shiite branch of Islam with no interest of Syria

becoming Sunni-dominated. The Islamic Republic supports Assad's regime against the Syrian Sunni rebels backed by Qatar

and Saudi Arabia – Iran's main oil-rich rivals in the Persian Gulf. Further religious link to Lebanon's Hezbollah ensures

prompt arms transfers from Iran through Syria to Lebanon, including ballistic missiles as reported by Wikileaks in October.

Figure 1 Credit: AP

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THE “AXIS OF RESISTANCE“

As the rest of the Middle East allies to the West

following the US invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan, Tehran

and Damascus form the so-called “Axis of Resistance“

based on several mutual benefits and defence, especially

attempts to stop Iraqi and Israeli influence. The Ba'athist

ideology of both countries' ruling elites ensured that the

relationships never turned competitive. The Syria-Israel

Golan Heights dispute is backed by the support from

Tehran, improving Iran's reputation among Arab nations.

Proposing to solve this dispute along-side the Palestinian-

Israeli conflict has been seen by the US as an attempt to

spoil any US-planned peace talks. Diminishing the

regional power of the Persian oil giant would provide

a safer environment for neighbouring Israel and

potentially stabilise the region.

THE GENEVA PEACE TALKS PROGRESS

WITHOUT IRAN'S PRESENCE

Ban Ki-Moon has stated that there is no solution

for the Syrian Crisis without the presence of Iran, but the

last-minute invitation has been held back as the Islamic

Republic has been called the potential „deal-breaker“ by

proving communication and arms support to Al-Assad's

regime to which Tehran has responded saying that they

would not „accept any preconditions“. The goal of the

Geneva conference remains an attempt to establish

a transitional government to end the atrocities.

END OF ASSAD, END OF IRAN'S INFLUENCE?

Even after Assad's overthrow resulting in a ruling

Sunni-dominated majority, Tehran would still hold

a significant influence that would ensure its link to

Hezbollah and promote its anti-Western ideology giving

a hard time to the US officials striking for control not only

in Syria, but also in the neighbouring Arab nations.

There are no definite scenarios for a post-Assad

Syria. Due to its diverse ethnic and religious

demographic, the country would be likely to split into

regions ruled by various powers. Iran's significant

influence would be attacks by Western and Russian

attempts for control. Any intervention in Syria from the

West would be likely to affect the internal politics of Iran.

Even though the influence would be limited, with

unforeseen outcomes, an intervention still remains a

risky idea. As stated by Abu Qasim Al-Khoei, an Iranian

Scholar, “If Assad falls, the Iranians will march on foot to

Syria“. Iran is preparing well for a potential tragic

outcome by ruthless arming.

THE FUTURE

Iran's stance towards Syria will be one of the

main factors influencing the future situation within the

country as well as the region which remains the

ideological battlefield between Western and “the other“

interests. Any progress towards solving the catastrophic

situation in this country in far at the distance unless the

West attempts to compromise with Moscow and Tehran,

who could be more willing to negotiate if the outcome

ensured them a future influence within Syria. Joining up

forces would bring mutual benefits, such as removal of

militant jihadi groups who, in spite of being backed by the

west despise both Iran and the US. ۩

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The Middle Eastern conflict is

like a Petrushka: a crisis in a

crisis in a crisis Written by Ahyskel Leon

When one reads or hears the latest news about the Lebanese Republic it is mostly associated with problems, violence,

uprisings, bomb attacks; in short what we call terrorism. Thereby, to name it a republic sounds almost facetious. Western

society members connect this term more to revolution, freedom and equality; elimination of a bad government and

replacement by a good and stronger one. What is going on in Lebanon seems to have little to do with this term.

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This small country seems to be surrounded merely by

troubles. Being located between Israel and Syria the

reasons may seem logical. To its north-west, there is the

Syrian revolution and its uprisings against an oppressive

government. To the south, the Israeli-Palestinian ongoing

conflict and the famous Gaza Strip. As a result, one may

overlook the conflicts going on inside its own borders.

THE INTERNAL CRISIS

It seems unimaginable for the size of the country to be

confronted with so many revolts and conflicts - in

comparison England is twelve times as big as Lebanon.

Nevertheless, it is a fact that the Lebanese Republic has

been struggling against its own socio-political conflicts in

addition to those from the outside. The demographic

tensions have been one of the biggest issues.

To begin with, the amount of the different ethnic and

religious groups has to be considered, such as the

constant quarrels between Sunnis and Shias. It is

important to say that the Sunni and Shia relation has

been deeply affected by the Syrian war for the Shia

militia, Hezbollah, for it has lost political support. In

addition to the social issue, in parliament the situation

seems to remain volatile, for example, votes had been

put off in May 2013 until November 2014 because of

security concerns.

Probably, the news of November 2013 are most

remembered, when BBC reported about the explosion

outside the Iranian embassy in the capital of Lebanon,

Beirut. The most recent, though, happened only a few

days ago, reported again in Beirut where in a rush hour a

car bomb was detonated. The BBC stated that the area is

considered to be a “stronghold” of Hezbollah. Hezbollah

deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem confesses to BBC

reporter that “Lebanon is on the road to ruin if there is

no political understanding” and it seems like he may be

right. It is indisputable that the internal situation in

Lebanon has got out of control and it desperately needs a

strong and stable government. It is noteworthy that

Lebanon has been without a government since Mr

Mikati's resignation in April 2013. Lebanon is fragile at its

best.

THE OUTSIDE EFFECTS

About Lebanon's neighbor, it is well-known that the

Syrian crisis and its conflicts with Israel have spilled over

Lebanon and negatively affected its demography which

has already been a calamity. The bigger brothers seem to

cause only troubles and do not help their little brother in

this important period of his own historical development.

After invasions, a civil war and the loss of its government,

Lebanon sees itself to have, in addition, to deal with its

brothers' controversies. For instance, Hezbollah, the Shia

Islamic militia, has caused merely terror and death, as

Western countries would describe it.

Their main target has been to defeat Israeli occupation,

especially after Israeli invasion over Lebanon in 2006

their number of members have increased to the extent

that Hezbollah holds seats in Lebanese parliament. Albeit,

its development is controversial amongst Western

countries and, partially, in the Middle East. The Haaretz

reported in 2007 that “Hezbollah has to be disarmed and

transformed into a political party that would take part in

political life in Lebanon”.

Iran's President, Hassan Rouhani, also states that there is

an urgent for elections in Syria if the country wants to

approach a political change. This may be a slight appeal

to Assad who appears to be ignoring the happenings. At

the same time, Iran's president said to Euronews that the

issue is not about Assad but rather about terrorism which

needs to be brought back under control.

There is war in Syria, and in Israel spreading across to

their neighbors. In the meantime in Lebanon Syrian

refugees strain territories demanding Lebanese help and

forgetting that Lebanon does not have the maturity yet

to handle such a big issue. If it cannot even establish its

own government, how can it pamper Syria's lost

children? A clear line has to be defined between the

countries in conflict and together combat the trouble

maker. ۩

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GUEST SPEAKERS

Nadim Shehadi by Ahyskel Leon Associate Fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House Our first guest speaker for UoBMAL 2014 is Nadim Shehadi, an expert speaker in Lebanon, Syria and the Middle East Peace

Process with a particular interest in refugees.

From 1997 to present he has been an Associate Fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the Chatham

House based in London. During 1986-2005 he was the Director of the Centre for Lebanese Studies in Oxford. Currently he is

a member of the executive board of the Centro de Estudios de Oriente Medio of the Fundación Promoción Social de la

Cultura in Madrid. He is also a consultant to several governments and international organizations. Mr Shehadi was trained

as an economist with an interest in the history of economic thought.

His most recent project The Regional Dimension of the Palestinian Refugee Issue. Furthermore, he has published several

scholarly articles within academia; his most recent was published in February 2013 on The World Today titled ‘One day the

world will thank Bush for shaking up the Arab region.’ He is fluent in French and Arabic.

For more information about his publications you can follow him on twitter: twitter.com/Confusezeus.

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Michelle Pace by Kainat Hussain & Sofia Majorova Professor in Politics and International Relations

Michelle Pace is a professor at the Department of Political Science and International Studies at the University of

Birmingham known as a leading scholar specialising in the relations between the European Union, the Middle East and the

Mediterranean.

Her primary interest is democratisation, democracy promotion and democracy perception in these regions. One of her

recent projects is the British Academy research grant project titled 'A 'Modern' Islamist Democracy? Perceptions of

Democratisation in the Arab-Mediterranean World.' She has also published several books including 'Conceptualizing

Cultural and Social Dialogue in the Euro-Mediterranean Area: A European Perspective.' Her other areas of work include the

European Neighbourhood Policy and governance and pluralism in Egypt and Palestine.

Michelle Pace is also a current member of the editorial board of the journal Mediterranean Politics and a founder and

convenor of the British International Studies Association Working Group on International Mediterranean Studies and of the

research group on the EU. She is also responsible for administration and research of Economic and Social Research Council

(ESRC) and has been nominated as one of the University of Birmingham's Public Intellectuals.