New Snowstorm Indices and New GIS Snowstorm Database€¦ · Northeast East North Central Central...
Transcript of New Snowstorm Indices and New GIS Snowstorm Database€¦ · Northeast East North Central Central...
Development of New Snowstorm Indicesand
A New GIS Snowstorm Databaseat the
National Climatic Data Center
Mike Squires, Jay Lawrimore, Richard HeimNational Climatic Data Center
David Robinson, Mathieu Gerbush, Thomas EstilowRutgers University
Clay TaborUniversity of North Carolina at Asheville
Anna WilsonSTG
Overview• Goals:
– Bridge the gap between Wxr/Climo and Societal Impacts
– Feedback and identify stakeholders
• Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale
• Data processing issues
• New Regional Snowstorm Indices
• New GIS Snowstorm Database
Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS)
• Area of snow, amount of snow, and population affected by >4” of snow
• Societal Impacts
• Puts Northeast snowstorms into historical perspective
Data Processing Using a GIS
• Extract snowfall data from the Global Historical Climate Network – Daily dataset
• Identify stations associated w/ a particular storm
• Quality Control
Unedited Data:January 15-19, 1978
Day 1:January 15, 1978
Delineated Storm:January 15-19, 1978
Original Delineated
Unrelated Snowfall:January 15, 1978 (Day 1)
Final Dataset:January 15-19, 1978
Delineated Final
Final Dataset:January 15, 1978
Final Dataset:January 16, 1978
Final Dataset:January 17, 1978
Final Dataset:January 18, 1978
Final Dataset:January 19, 1978
Manual Quality Control of GHCN-D
• Quality Control (QC) is a quasi-subjective process– Want a reliable, robust, repeatable method
• Making QC decisions in the face of uncertainty– Type I error – false positive – throwing out good data (unacceptable)– Type II error – false negative – keeping bad data – The goal is to minimize Type I errors at all costs, so:
• Assume all data is correct unless proven otherwise• In general snowfall is spatially continuous, however
– topography– Lake effect snow– Differences in observation technique– Small scale spatial variability
• Do not change values• Tools: ArcMap, Moran’s I, snowfall grid (bull’s eyes)• Typically ~1% of stations are removed
January 15-17, 1945
Regional Snowfall Impact Scale (ReSIS)
• Collaborating with Rutgers University
• Differences from NESIS;– NCDC Regions
– Snowfall and population are confined to specific region
• Finalizing algorithm to compute indices
Intra-Regional Differences
ReSIS = 19.648
ReSIS CalculationMarch 12-13, 1993
Snowfall Population Area (sq mi)2 6,311,630 46,6665 8,110,060 41,237
10 4,135,780 22,17015 3,210,340 29,983
Top of distribution
Bottom of distribution
Middle of distribution
Storm Date Index > 2" > 5" > 10" > 15"1993-Mar-12-14 19.65 15% 17% 27% 41%1996-Jan-06-09 19.51 10% 12% 26% 53%1927-Mar-01-03 16.29 12% 15% 29% 44%1940-Jan-23-24 16.12 20% 27% 29% 25%1922-Jan-26-29 14.98 11% 13% 26% 49%
1942-Mar-02-03 7.34 21% 25% 30% 24%1966-Jan-29-31 7.33 30% 30% 27% 13%1960-Feb-13-15 6.91 29% 32% 32% 7%1958-Feb-14-17 6.63 32% 32% 22% 14%1930-Jan-29-31 6.47 40% 40% 19% 1%
1900-Mar-15-16 3.14 29% 27% 40% 4%1962-Jan-09-11 2.93 84% 16% 0% 0%1926-Jan-07-10 2.65 68% 28% 4% 0%1968-Jan-12-15 2.50 41% 26% 29% 5%1910-Feb-11-13 2.04 63% 33% 4% 0%
Top 20 Southeast Snowstorms
Storm Date Area (sq mi) Population Index1993-Mar-12-14 140,056 21,767,810 19.6481996-Jan-06-09 82,232 14,973,350 19.5051927-Mar-01-03 93,361 14,246,920 16.2931940-Jan-23-24 148,685 24,698,910 16.1251922-Jan-26-29 71,959 13,324,460 14.9821979-Feb-18-19 145,034 24,713,830 13.4651980-Mar-01-03 124,958 21,601,770 13.0181930-Dec-17-18 92,438 17,777,300 11.4601983-Feb-10-12 46,397 7,502,419 11.2851936-Feb-06-07 108,419 18,714,421 10.5001987-Jan-21-23 92,044 18,104,674 10.3741973-Feb-09-11 116,780 12,435,609 10.2461962-Mar-05-07 52,134 8,923,510 9.2151902-Feb-14-17 99,665 16,393,906 8.9331988-Jan-06-08 138,258 24,221,031 8.5561960-Mar-01-04 102,288 18,043,010 7.9551966-Jan-25-27 99,953 17,297,296 7.8541914-Feb-25-26 160,198 22,346,073 7.7061942-Mar-02-03 64,108 12,649,065 7.345
Northeast
East North C
entral
Central
Southeast
South
Inde
x Va
lue
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Distribution of Regional Indices
New National Snowfall Index
• Created any time a regional index is calculated
• Societal impacts and historical perspective
• Allows discrimination between national and regional impacts
• Algorithm under development
New GIS Snowstorm Database
• Collection of top 100-200 U.S. snowstorms from 1900 to present
• “GIS format”
• Will be used to calculate the new national snowfall index
• Could be used by other researchers, policy makers, and the general public
• Societal impact
GIS Snowstorm Database
Miles of Interstate Highway Affected by Snowfall Above a Threshold
Storm Date > 4" > 10" > 15" > 20" > 30"
1977-01-08-11 16,318 2,221 668 58 0
1993-03-12-15 17,249 12,485 7,311 3,295 277
1996-01-06-09 16,063 11,418 8,095 4,490 143
2005-12-07-10 13,039 1,674 43 0 0
Miles of Railroad Affected by Snowfall Above a Threshold
Storm Date > 4" > 10" > 15" > 20">
30"
1977-01-08-11 42,505 5,190 1,478 91 0
1993-03-12-15 38,972 29,357 18,799 9,445 620
1996-01-06-09 32,805 22,219 15,568 9,837 446
2005-12-07-10 33,299 2,795 73 0 0
Pre-Summarized Tables
Potential Interactive Queries
• How many square miles were affected by snowfall >10” during the Jan 1996 storm?
• Which schools in Illinois and Wisconsin have experienced snowstorms >20” in November?
• How many miles of interstate received >30” in New York during the Mar 1993 storm?
• Which hospitals in Pennsylvania have been affected by > 15” of snowfall in any month?
St Louis University & National Weather ServiceAnalog Snowfall Guidance
Storm Date Year Month >4" > 10" > 15" > 20" > 30"19820111_19820115 1982 1 1418 123 0 0 019820404_19820408 1982 4 923 264 53 4 019830210_19830213 1983 2 218 205 428 110 219850129_19850203 1985 1 1463 66 0 0 019870121_19870124 1987 1 790 503 39 9 019880105_19880109 1988 1 1395 282 8 5 019880209_19880214 1988 2 1061 183 27 1 019921209_19921213 1992 12 606 232 72 27 119930214_19930218 1993 2 1238 98 7 0 019930220_19930224 1993 2 1082 152 30 2 019930312_19930315 1993 3 394 608 365 210 1419940116_19940119 1994 1 986 242 63 8 019940222_19940225 1994 2 1023 91 8 0 019950202_19950207 1995 2 703 372 22 6 019951218_19951222 1995 12 810 274 31 1 019960106_19960109 1996 1 396 235 319 464 1219990101_19990104 1999 1 697 298 160 14 020001228_20010101 2000 12 942 56 7 0 020021222_20021226 2002 12 1040 137 38 14 220030214_20030218 2003 2 520 179 445 242 420031204_20031208 2003 12 461 302 144 36 320040124_20040129 2004 1 1566 210 11 7 020050121_20050124 2005 1 900 552 42 90 220051207_20051210 2005 12 1051 138 5 0 0
Snowfall Analog Guidance20-24 February 1993
NCDC GIS Snowstorm DatabaseNumber of Hospitals Affected by Snowfall
Above Specified Threshold
Analogs for 2008/12/19
Rank Date Score
1 1994 12 07 7.741
2 1990 12 15 6.859
3 2000 02 18 6.813
4 1993 02 21 6.758
Issues
• Actively seeking out stakeholders and users• “GIS format”
– OGC: WMS, WFS, WCS, KML– Oracle Spatial/SDE– Method of access?
• Oracle database design• Spatial queries vs. geoprocessing tools
• Implementing tools in Arc Server• How do we archive media reports?• Process to make this a permanent NOAA dataset
Interested Parties
• Saint Louis University– Analog Forecast Guidance
• Munich Reinsurance– Snowfall risk information
• NC Integrated Risk Management Project– NC Dept of Crime Control and Public Safety
– AECOM
• National Weather Service
• Looking for more …