New Orleans Economic Outlook
description
Transcript of New Orleans Economic Outlook
New Orleans Economic Outlook
Janet F. Speyrer, Ph.D.Associate Dean for Research
College of Business AdministrationThe University of New Orleans
June 22, 2012
Percent Change in Real U.S. GDPFe
b-80
Feb-
82
Feb-
84
Feb-
86
Feb-
88
Feb-
90
Feb-
92
Feb-
94
Feb-
96
Feb-
98
Feb-
00
Feb-
02
Feb-
04
Feb-
06
Feb-
08
Feb-
10
Feb-
12
Feb-
14
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Source: GSU Economic Forecasting Center
Unemployment Rates by StateMay 2012
ND
SD
NE
KS
TX
OK
MN
WI
AR
IL
IA
LA
MS
MO
WA
ORID
WY
MT
CA
NVUT
AZ
CO
HIAK
NM
ME
NY
SC
AL
FL
GA
IN
KYNC
OHPA
TN
VAWV
MI
VTNHMARICTNJDEMDDC
Initial Unemployment ClaimsNew Orleans Metro vs. US (Monthly)
Indexed to 1999 normal levelsSource: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Louisiana Workforce Commission
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
New Orleans Metro US
Per Capita Personal Income New Orleans Metro vs. US
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
New Orleans Metro* US
*Revised to show 2010 Census population figuresSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis, DBER
N. O. Area Average Weekly Wage 20
05 Q
2
2005
Q4
2006
Q2
2006
Q4
2007
Q2
2007
Q4
2008
Q2
2008
Q4
2009
Q2
2009
Q4
2010
Q2
2010
Q4
2011
Q2
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
659.892029088513
856.83563815212
787858
798881 833
921835
932854
962875
Includes 8 parish area: New Orleans Metro plus St. James parishSource: Louisiana Workforce Commission
Bankruptcies per Capita Eastern District of LA vs. US (Quarterly)
2006
Q1
2006
Q2
2006
Q3
2006
Q4
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
0.00%
0.02%
0.04%
0.06%
0.08%
0.10%
0.12%
0.14%
0.16%
East District LA US
Source: Eastern District Court of Louisiana, American Bankruptcy Institute*For the 2011 & 2012 per capita figures, the 2010 population estimates were used
Foreclosures per HouseholdNew Orleans Metro vs. US
2007
Avg
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
0.35%
New Orleans Metro US
Perc
enta
ge
Source: RealtyTrac *For the 2011 & 2012 per capita figures, the 2010 population estimates were used
New Orleans Metro Job Overview
• The New Orleans metro area had 609,600 jobs in 2005 before Katrina.
• At the low point after the storm, the area had just 425,800 jobs (70% of pre-Katrina).
• By May 2012, employment in New Orleans had grown to 528,100 jobs (86.6% ).
• By the fourth quarter of 2013, 531,000 jobs are forecast (87.1%).
N. O. Metro Total EmploymentPer Month
Jan-
03
Jul-0
3
Jan-
04
Jul-0
4
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650603.7
425.8
528.1 527.6
Jobs
(100
0's)
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, DBER
New Orleans Jobs by Industry (% pre-Katrina)Total Nonfarm Employment
Min-ing & Logging
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable Goods
Nondurable Goods
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Infor
mation
Financial Activities
Professio
nal, Scientific,
Technical
Educatio
nal
Services
Leisure
and Hospitality
Other
Services
Government
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Lowest after Katrina Added in 6 Years Added in 2012 (5 mos.)
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
N. O. Metro Construction Activity Per Month
2004 2005 pre-K
2005 post-K
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (5 mos)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Non-building Non-residential Residential
$ M
illio
ns
Source: McGraw Hill Construction, Dodge
New Orleans Metro Total Population19
60
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
969
1,125
1,3291,349
673
1,193
Sources: US Census, GCR & Assoc., System Solutions Consulting
Jefferson
Orleans
Plaquemines
St. Bernard
St. Charle
s
St. John
St. Tammany
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,0002005 Pre-K2005 Oct2011 Nov2012 May
Parish Population
Sources: US Census, DBER estimates, Greater New Orleans Community Data Center
New Orleans Metro Taxable SalesJu
l-02
Jan-
03
Jul-0
3
Jan-
04
Jul-0
4
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
$0.0
$250,000,000.0
$500,000,000.0
$750,000,000.0
$1,000,000,000.0
$1,250,000,000.0
Includes 5 parish area: Plaquemines & Jefferson not included
Total Tonnage Moving Through thePort of New Orleans
1989
-119
89-4
1990
-319
91-2
1992
-119
92-4
1993
-319
94-2
1995
-119
95-4
1996
-319
97-2
1998
-119
98-4
1999
-320
00-2
2001
-120
01-4
2002
-320
03-2
2004
-120
04-4
2005
-320
06-2
2007
-120
07-4
2008
-320
09-2
2010
-120
10-4
2011
-3
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
Exports Imports
Mill
ions
of t
ons
Source: Port of New Orleans
Crude Oil and Natural Gas PricesJa
n-02
May
-02
Sep-
02Ja
n-03
May
-03
Sep-
03Ja
n-04
May
-04
Sep-
04Ja
n-05
May
-05
Sep-
05Ja
n-06
May
-06
Sep-
06Ja
n-07
May
-07
Sep-
07Ja
n-08
May
-08
Sep-
08Ja
n-09
May
-09
Sep-
09Ja
n-10
May
-10
Sep-
10Ja
n-11
May
-11
Sep-
11Ja
n-12
May
-12
May
-13$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
Oil Gas
$ pe
r bar
rel o
il
$ pe
r mcf
gas
Source: Georgia State University
Hotel Room Capacity
Hotel Oc-cupancy
Rate
Accomodation Jobs
Airport Capac-ity
Passenger Deplane-
ments
Casino Ad-missions
State Parks and Welcome Cen-
ters
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2005 Post-K 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Louisiana Office of Tourism, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, STR
Tourism Indicators Compared to Seasonal Pre-Katrina Levels