Netherlands Workshop Viet Nam...Dr. Tran Mai Kien, NE Dr. Hoang Minh Tuyen, NE Ms Huynh Thi Lan...

Vietnam- NCAP Study

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN HUONG RIVER BASIN AND ADAPTATION IN THUA

THIEN HUE PROVINCE

NCAP International WorkshopNCAP International WorkshopNetherlands, 5/27/2008Netherlands, 5/27/2008

Project Expert TeamProject Expert Team

IMHENIMHEN�� Prof. Dr. Tran Thuc, Project Prof. Dr. Tran Thuc, Project

DirectorDirector�� Mr. Le Nguyen Tuong, Project Mr. Le Nguyen Tuong, Project

CoordinatorCoordinator�� Prof Dr. Nguyen Trong Hieu, NEProf Dr. Nguyen Trong Hieu, NE�� Dr. Tran Mai Kien, NEDr. Tran Mai Kien, NE�� Dr. Hoang Minh Tuyen, NEDr. Hoang Minh Tuyen, NE�� Ms Huynh Thi Lan Huong, NEMs Huynh Thi Lan Huong, NE�� Mr. Dang Quang Thinh, NEMr. Dang Quang Thinh, NE�� Dr. Hoang Duc Cuong, NEDr. Hoang Duc Cuong, NE�� Mr. Tran Quynh, NEMr. Tran Quynh, NE�� Mr. Vuong Xuan Hoa, NEMr. Vuong Xuan Hoa, NE

International consultants:International consultants:�� Mr. Adriaan TasMr. Adriaan Tas�� Dr. Peter van der Werff Dr. Peter van der Werff

Thua Thien Hue local expertsThua Thien Hue local experts�� Mr. Nguyen Huu Quyet, Hue Mr. Nguyen Huu Quyet, Hue

group coordinatorgroup coordinator�� Mr. Nguyen Viet Hung, NE TTH Mr. Nguyen Viet Hung, NE TTH

DONREDONRE�� Mr. Nguyen Viet, NE, Hue MC Mr. Nguyen Viet, NE, Hue MC

ProvinceProvince�� Mr. Pham Van Chien, NE, DN Ob.Mr. Pham Van Chien, NE, DN Ob.�� Mr. Le Van Thu, SEZMr. Le Van Thu, SEZ�� Ms Lam Thi Thu Suu, HUMs Lam Thi Thu Suu, HU�� Nguyen Van Kham, DINguyen Van Kham, DI�� BBùùi Thi Thịị Hai Yen, DARDHai Yen, DARD�� Tran Viet Luc, DTTran Viet Luc, DT�� Luong Quang ðoc HULuong Quang ðoc HU

� Phan Thanh Hung, NE, TFMC


Study area - Huong basin•Mountainous area in the west and in the south is 70% area of the province.•Plain area is small along the coastal. It is around 9.78% natural area of the province•The Huong river basin area is 2.830 km2

•Mean annual precipitation: 2833.5 mm

ActivitiesActivities

�� Statistical processingStatistical processing

�� Research and ModelingResearch and Modeling

�� On site survey, Expert method, and On site survey, Expert method, and

�� stakeholder consultationstakeholder consultation


Key outputsKey outputs

�� Climate change and disasters in Climate change and disasters in T.T.HueT.T.Hue

�� Predicted Climate change and Climate Predicted Climate change and Climate

change impacts in change impacts in ThuaThua Thien HueThien Hue

�� Climate change strategy of provinceClimate change strategy of province

�� Capacity building for province and Capacity building for province and

lessonslessons


Climate change and Climate change and disasters in Thua Thien Huedisasters in Thua Thien Hue


Typhoons impact to Thua Thien Hue�� Scine Scine 1952 to 1952 to 2005 there 2005 there were 34 were 34 typhoons typhoons which which impacted impacted directly to directly to Thua Thien Thua Thien HueHue


26.11.200426.11.200468268211.200411.2004152615262827282720012001--20062006

02.11.199902.11.199997897811.199911.1999245224523093309319911991--20002000

10.10.198110.10.198158258210.198310.1983152715272575257519811981--19901990

23.10.197323.10.197347047010.197310.1973156415642666266619711971--19801980

05.10.196905.10.196955055010.196910.1969179217922824282419611961--19701970

27.11.196027.11.196027727710.196010.1960107810782751275119511951--19601960

23.10.194923.10.194944044010.194910.1949154715473230323019411941--19501950

25.10.193925.10.193943343310.193210.1932116611662631263119311931--19401940

13.11.193013.11.193036036011.193011.1930124112413008300819211921--19301930

13.10.191613.10.191628328311.191711.1917156815682817281719111911--19201920

Date Date observedobserved

DailyDailymaxmax

MonthMonthobservedobserved

Month Month maxmax

AnnualAnnualmeanmeanPeriodPeriod

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1911-1920 1921-1930 1931-1940 1941-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2006

Mưa nămMưa tháng lớn nhấtMưa ngày lớn nhất

Change of rainfall at Hue Station

21.0

21.5

22.0

22.5

23.0

1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

2

1

3 4

OC

Year

Pic. Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average(time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of annual

average temperature at A Luoi station.

Annual Temperature

Change of temperature at A Luoi station

Floods in Floods in HuongHuong riverriver

Number of flood higher than warning level 3 in Thua Thien Hue:

5112132No.

200720062005200420032002200120001999Year

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

SH

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003

S.HƯƠNGS.BỒ

Number W. Level cm

flood 2007

Subject Sea level rise

Pre. change

Typhoon River flow

change and flood

Landslide

River bank, sea

dyke erosion

Increase in temperature

Flash flood

Transportation - +++ ++ ++ +++ - - ++

Water drainage ++ +++ ++ ++ - - - -

Water supply - +++ ++ ++ - - ++ ++

Electricity - ++ +++ - ++ - ++ -

Infrastructure

Telecommunications

- ++ +++ - - - - -

Agriculture ++ + ++ +++ - ++ ++ -

Forestry ++ - ++ ++ + - ++ ++

Irrigation ++ ++ ++ +++ - - ++ +++

Aquaculture +++ ++ ++ +++ - +++ ++ -

Biodiversity +++ - - - - ++ +++ -

Sector

Water Resources +++ +++ + +++ - - ++ ++

+++: Strong impact++ : Medium impact+ : Low impact- : Non-impact

Disasters and climate change and Disasters and climate change and impacts in Thua Thien Hueimpacts in Thua Thien Hue


Projected climate change andProjected climate change andclimate changeclimate change impacts in Thua Thien Hueimpacts in Thua Thien Hue


Projected climate change in Thua Thien HueProjected climate change in Thua Thien HueChange of temperature compared with everage period 1961- 1990

Scenario Period 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Year 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.9 XII-II 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.0 III-V 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.4 3.1 3.7 4.3 4.7 VI-VIII 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.1

A1F1

IX-XI 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.2 3.6 4.0

24.722.419.616.312.78.95.73.52.11.1IX-XI

15.614.212.310.38.05.63.62.21.10.7VI-VIII

9.38.47.46.14.83.43.11.30.80.4III-V

-23.4-21.2-18.5-15.4-12.0-8.5-5.4-3.3-2.0-1.0XII-II

11.010.08.77.35.74.02.51.50.90.5Year

A1F1

2100209020802070206020502040203020202010Scenario

Change in rainfall compared with mean from 1961-1990 (%)

60.1754.6749.1843.6838.1932.6927.2021.7016.2110.715.21Vung Tau

54.7950.1945.5840.9836.3831.7727.1722.5617.9613.358.75Hon Dau

21002090208020702060205020402030202020102000Station

Sea level rise compared 1961-1990 (B2) scenario (cm)

% RIVER FLOW CHANGE IN III-V

-15

-10

-5

0

2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120Năm

Hữu trạch Tả trạch Bồ

% RIVER FLOW CHANGE IN IX-XI

0

5

10

15

2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120Năm

%

Hữu trạch Tả trạch Bồ

HuongHuong River Water resourcesRiver Water resources

Predicted impact of climate change on Predicted impact of climate change on HuongHuong river runoffriver runoff

Flood area in Phu Vang district calculation under CC A1F1

12.011.09.07.04.00∆Fmax (%)

114.4113.0111.2109.4105.8102.1Fmax (km2)

6,446,276,166.085.965.81Hmax (m)

210020902070205020301999

17.016.013.08.04.00∆Fmax (%)

453.7448.8438.5419.2404.5388.4Fmax (km2)

6,446,276,166.085.965.81Hmax (m)

210020902070205020301999

Flood area in Thua Thien Hue under A1F1 CC Scenario

FloodFlood

PredictedPredicted impacts of climate change in Thua Thien Hueimpacts of climate change in Thua Thien Hue

38.3732.2424.4915.928.160.00(%)

3.393.243.052.842.652.45Salinity (PSU) (%o)Pho Nam

23.520.516.58.550(%)

2.472.412.332.172.12Salinity (PSU) (%o)Phu Cam

210020902070205020302002ParameterCross-section

Salinity change at Pho Nam and Phu Cam under scenario A1F1

SSalinityalinity intrusionintrusion

30.33516.78629.78816.2862100

30.13316.61829.73916.2612090

29.85516.33829.56516.1362070

29.62615.92729.36615.8142050

29.32715.40829.21715.2582030

28.63214.79928.63214.7992002

1%o4%o1%o4%o

A1F1B2Year

Change in distance of 1%o and 4%o salinity intrusionsalinity intrusion

PredictedPredicted impacts of climate change in Thua Thien Hueimpacts of climate change in Thua Thien Hue

Climate change impact assessmentClimate change impact assessment

�� Impacts on biodiversityImpacts on biodiversity

�� Impacts on coastal areaImpacts on coastal area

�� Impacts on water resourcesImpacts on water resources

�� Impacts on agricultureImpacts on agriculture

�� Impacts on forestryImpacts on forestry

�� Impacts on tourismImpacts on tourism

�� Impacts on other sectors: Transport, Impacts on other sectors: Transport,

hydropower..hydropower..


Impacts on Impacts on health andhealth andlivelihoods livelihoods

of the of the people in people in the region the region especially especially aquacultureaquacultureworkers workers

and familiesand families

Climate change policy in Thua Thien Hue


Climate change Policyand development plans of province

1.1. Plan for improving awareness and using climate change informatioPlan for improving awareness and using climate change information;n;

2.2. Plan for Plan for requirement on climate change and sea level rise consideration in sea level rise consideration in

planning decision process;planning decision process;

3.3. Infrastructure adaptive to climate changeInfrastructure adaptive to climate change

4.4. Reservoir, River and lagoon management regulation considering clReservoir, River and lagoon management regulation considering climate imate

changechange

5.5. Enhance Disaster early warning forecast systemEnhance Disaster early warning forecast system

6.6. Awareness raising and community participationAwareness raising and community participation

7.7. Environmental strategic assessment considering Environmental strategic assessment considering

climate changeclimate change

8. Setting up and implementing climate change

adaptation plan of actions

Meeting with Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Thien Chairperson of the Provincial People’s Committee

1. Plan on CC awarenessawareness raise as a part of

the ICZM capacity building

2. Enhance the coastal zone management

regulation framework towards adaptive

to climate change.

3. Re-assess the carrying capacity of

coastal zone and lagoons and potential

adaptive capacity to respond to climate

change.

4. Plan for setting up requirement on climate

change adaptation into EIA for projects

in the coastal zone

Climate change consideration into ICZM


Climate change and Chan May Climate change and Chan May

-- Lang Co economic zone.Lang Co economic zone.

1.1. Plan for adjustment Plan for adjustment Reasonable projection of Reasonable projection of area area based on vulnerable maps.based on vulnerable maps.

2.2. Consideration CC into EIA for Consideration CC into EIA for investment projectsinvestment projects

3.3. Plan for considering sea level Plan for considering sea level rise 50 cm in 2050 and 1m in rise 50 cm in 2050 and 1m in 2100 for sea dyke, 2100 for sea dyke, embankment, sea port embankment, sea port constructionsconstructions

4.4. Afforest and protect coastal Afforest and protect coastal forestforest

5.5. Construct storm shelter for Construct storm shelter for ships, high strong building ships, high strong building shelter for civilization.shelter for civilization.

6.6. Develop and operate the Develop and operate the climate change observation, climate change observation, monitoring system in the area.monitoring system in the area.

source: Consultation group of CCP

Districts and communes:

1. Awareness raising on the impact of

climate change.

2. Implement climate change mitigation

policy and sustainable use of natural

resources policy.

3. Development and implementation

commune plan on disaster protection

Household:

1. Awareness raising on reasonable and

effective use of natural resources and

energy.

2. Participation in coastal forestation,

protect irrigation and flood protection

constructions.

3. Development of suitable handcraft

adapting to climate change.

Districts disaster protection plan should be revised in CC

Flooded point in historical flood in 1999

Capacity building for province Capacity building for province and lessonsand lessons


Interview on NCAP and CC

for local TV broadcast

Stakeholder Workshop

Stakeholder consultation and Capacity

building for Province:

Meetings, Interviews, workshops

PPC leader awareness and support

1. Decision-makers and public awareness improving

2. Nominating focal point for climate change

activities in province (DONRE)4. Technical expert team in province5. Closer co-operation among different agencies in province6. Plan Raising management capacity for ICZM 7. Plan for development PAPA on climate change under the NTP


1.1. Climate change information are highly scientific and Climate change information are highly scientific and uncertain. The local policy makers need a good interpretation uncertain. The local policy makers need a good interpretation for decision process for decision process 2.2. Climate change is long term process so that more Climate change is long term process so that more effectiveness when focuses to longeffectiveness when focuses to long--term planning, term planning, policy/program.policy/program.3.3. Considering Climate change information by PPC and local Considering Climate change information by PPC and local agencies in revising development plans, ICZM strategy and agencies in revising development plans, ICZM strategy and strategic environmental assessment of Special Economic strategic environmental assessment of Special Economic Zone is the NCAP project contribution to local planning Zone is the NCAP project contribution to local planning process adapting to climate changeprocess adapting to climate change4.4. CC is cross sector issue, Strong policy coherence and coCC is cross sector issue, Strong policy coherence and co--ordination between provincial Dep. is needed. ordination between provincial Dep. is needed.

The LessonsThe Lessons


5. The international technical assistance is very important: The international technical assistance is very important: -- To provide in time guideline and new methodologyTo provide in time guideline and new methodology-- Broad wide information from international sources Broad wide information from international sources

overviewed by technical Advisor which have good influence overviewed by technical Advisor which have good influence on the local process.on the local process.6.6. Further international support is needed. The province is Further international support is needed. The province is seeking donor for most prioritized:seeking donor for most prioritized:

-- Public awareness rising and implementing revised Public awareness rising and implementing revised ICZM strategy in climate change condition.ICZM strategy in climate change condition.

- Developing and implementing the provincial climate change adaptation program of action. 7. People know better how to adapt to CC but they need People know better how to adapt to CC but they need guidance and good organization. Further capacity building guidance and good organization. Further capacity building is needed.is needed.

The LessonsThe Lessons


Institute of Meteorology Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and Hydrology and EnvironmentEnvironmentNo. 5/62 Nguyen Chi No. 5/62 Nguyen Chi

Thanh Thanh strstr., Ha ., Ha NoiNoiTel. 04 8359 540, 8355815 Tel. 04 8359 540, 8355815 Fax: 04 8355 993Fax: 04 8355 993Email:Email:[email protected]@vkttv.edu.vnWebsite: Website: http://www.imh.ac.vnhttp://www.imh.ac.vn;;http://www.dgroups.org/groups/ncap

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