Neighboring Insurgency: How are the Syrian Crisis and International

Responses Driving Lebanon to Fragility Trap?

Leila Nicolas, PhD

leila@leilanicolas.comwww.leilanicolasr.comwww.leilanicolas.com

In this paper, I assume that the effects of the spillover of the Syrian crisis and the international responses are deeply and negatively affecting the Lebanese State's existence, leading Lebanon to "fragility trap".

Is Lebanon a fragile State?

Is Lebanon a fragile State?

Actually, Lebanon is a middle income country, which was not really a ‘fragile state’ before Syrian crisis ,but had "Situations of fragility“.

The Syrian War ( March 2011- …)

Lebanon: Open border policy

Syrian Spillover Consequences

• Violent conflicts, terrorism and organized crime increased in Lebanon:

• Sunni Radicals called for supporters to back Syrian opposition thus sending arms and fighters from Lebanon to Syria , while Hizbullah (Shia) intervened in Syria to back Asaad regime, this escalated more sectarian tensions in Lebanon.

Stability and Security effects

A- Fighting in Tripoli between the Alawites who support Syrian regime and Sunnis supporting Syrian opposition.

B- Several terrorist attacks and suicide bombers blew in Tripoli, Beirut and Bekaa.

• Jihadist groups frequently claim responsibility for those.

C- crimes increased dramatically.D- Weapons are being smuggled in both directions

between Lebanon and Syria.

Demographic stress

• UNHCR have registered around 1.1 million Syrian refugees.

• Lebanese officials: more than 1.3 million Syrian refugees have entered Lebanon by May-2014 (37% of Lebanon’s pre-crisis population)

• 500,000 Palestinian refugees• 50,000 Iraqi refugees

Economic and Social Stress• 5.7 billion $• lost economic activity till Summer 2013• 170,000• Lebanese expected to fall into poverty by 2014, in addition to

the current 1 million poor• 10%• increase in unemployment rate in Lebanon• 340,000 Lebanese • expected to join the ranks of unemployment • $348-$434 millionneeded by Lebanon's public education system to accommodate all

the additional Syrian students

Economic and social Stress• 1.1 billion $• The grow of total budgetary spending by the Government alone• 2.6 billion $• The deficit of public finances has widen• 1.5 billion $• Is the estimated to cut in revenue collection• 589 million $• the fiscal cost on infrastructure• 1.1 billion $• required for stabilization of infrastructure • including 258 million$ for current spending

Political and Institutional Effects

A – Tensions among LebaneseB- Increasing tensions between refugees and

host communitiesExample: Ersal province, has 40,000 Lebanese

inhabitants, hosts 120, 000 Syrian refugees.C- Crises of state legitimacy and authority• Postponing parliamentary elections from May 2012 to Nov.

2014.• Presidential void started at 25th of May 2014.

WHY?

Work, Settle freely, International Aid

Donors' Policies

• Western donors countries as well as Gulf states have been reluctant to disburse substantial funds to the Lebanese government.

• As a result, the international aid was managed around the Lebanese government in direct cooperation with non-state actors on the ground or the refugees themselves… leading to increased burdens on Lebanese institutions.

WHY?

• More than 40% of the 1.1 million registered refugees (UNHCR) came from non- conflict areas in Syria.

Direct cash programs

• In Lebanon, Cash delivered via ATM card has become the preferred modality used by international donors for:

• food, non-food needs, winter assistance etc..• the experience in Lebanon prove that "giving

cash directly had some benefits, however it affected negatively the host communities and put pressure on Lebanon.

Disadvantages of Direct Cash

• Discriminated between refugees …Caused tensions among them , and the hosting communities.

• Caused 100% raise to the prices of food and suppliesA small refugee family gets an average cash of 280 $ per

month, while the average wage in Syria for a non- skilled person is about 68 $ and a “university graduate” employee wage is 115$ (2013- 2014)

officials say: 20% percentage of registered refugees, pass the Lebanese- Syrian border at the end of each month to collect their vouchers or Cash money…..then go back to Syria.

Solutions

Suggested Solutions

First- Keep the current policies and let the Lebanese State collapse.

Second- Pragmatic Approach:Doing things differently; e.g. doing things

outside traditional expertise in dealing with refugees’ crisis.

Pragmatic Approach

• Step ONE- Classify Refugees: Category 1- who are really in need for humanitarian assistance, those

should be on the top of assistance priority.Category 2- who came from prior conflict- now safe areas; but may

have no homes or places to live. This category should be encouraged to return, on condition that aid and assistance be delivered by UN in Syria.

Category 3- Economic refugees should be encouraged to return to their homelands, the aid assistance in Lebanon should be stopped.

Category 4 –Syrian workers previously working in Lebanon, and registered as refugees to benefit from aid. Those should never benefit from any aid program, as they are exploiting the funds.

Pragmatic Approach-2

Step TWO- Help the Lebanese government to develop a new strategies to preserve both the Lebanese state and Syrian refugees.

Step Three- Long term projects targeting three dimensions:• A. Enhancing the security of both refugees and Lebanese

citizens; providing humanitarian relief based on humanitarian needs only.

• B. Contributing to a legitimate government with sufficient capacity;

• C. Creating a peace dividend.

Syrian refugees voting in Lebanon

Future- oriented dilemma It has been accepted that:• When governments are unwilling or unable to protect

their citizens, the international community then steps to take this responsibility.

But, what if practicing this international responsibility becomes a cause to depriving another state's citizens from their rights?

what if taking this responsibility is leading another state to the edge of civil war, or to collapse?.