2014 Election Updates & Insights

NCFEF is a non-partisan, nonprofit organization that conducts impartial, objective research and analysis on

candidates, campaigns, voter attitudes and demographic changes that impact North Carolina’s political landscape.

Joe Stewart Executive Director

jstewart@ncfef.org (919) 614-0520

www.ncfef.org

@ncfef

NCFEF

2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB)

CVB = voters partisan disposition based on statewide races since 2008 in which

candidates ran with party affiliation.

This is the voter party-preference topographical map of North Carolina,

shows state’s partisan geography.

2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB)

«  Rural (GOP) versus Urban (DEM)

«  Suburbs full of ‘swingers’

«  Voting pattern factors also emerging in

North Carolina: age (esp. Millennials),

ethnicity, gender, nativity

2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior

(CVB)

Dr. Rebecca Tippett

NC Demographer UNC Population Center

Generational Composition of NC Electorate in 2016   By 2016, North Carolina is projected to have 7.85 million adults, with the following p r o j e c t e d g e n e r a t i o n a l breakdown:   Greatest ( – 1927): 82,800 Silent (1928-45): 849,400 Boomers (1946-64): 2,329,500 Gen X (1965-81): 2,273,700 Millennial (1982-04): 2,317,000

NC Voter Registration Dec 2008 – Aug 2015

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

DEM GOP LIB UNA

-244,919

-64,702

+22,878

+369,630

2008: 6,282,575 2015: 6,365,462

+82,887 Dec 2014: 6,631,398

Counties with at least 1/3 UNA

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

50% of NC Registered Voters Live in 13 Counties

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

White   Black   Am  Indian   Other   Hispanic   Male   Female  46.55%   58.07%   18.19%   65.95%   63.73%   49.62%   50.20%  

Democrats   Republicans   Libertarians   Unaffiliated  51.26%   46.38%   56.78%   52.36%  

Political impact of population density 2012 Presidential Election within US

Congressional District

NC Counties with Population Loss, 2010-2014

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

NC Population Growth Not Even 49 NC counties have lost population since 2010

(2014 Census Bureau Data)

STRONG DEM (34) LEAN DEM (2) LEAN REP (14) STRONG REP (59)

29 L. Hall

Durham 114 Fisher

Buncombe 54 Reives

Lee 118 Presnell

Yancey 55 Brody

Union 86 Blackwell

Burke 110 Hastings

Gaston 96 Adams*

Catawba

106 Cunningham

Mecklenburg 42 Lucas

Cumberland 44 Glazier (NR)

Cumberland 49 Pendleton*

Wake 14 Cleveland#

Onslow 82 Pittman

Cabarrus 77 Warren

Rowan 69 Arp

Union

102 Carney

Mecklenburg 5 Hunter Hertford COMP (11) 9 B. Brown

Pitt 36 Dollar Wake 15 Shepard

Onslow 98 Bradford*

Mecklenburg 13 McElraft

Carteret

31 Michaux

Durham 32 Baskerville

Vance 66 Goodman

Richmond 45 Szoka

Cumberland 40 Avila

Wake 109 Bumgardner

Gaston 91 Holloway#

Stokes 81 Brown#

Davidson

33 Gill

Wake 72 Hanes

Forsyth 39 Jackson

Wake 63 Ross

Alamance 37 Stam

Wake 26 Daughtry

Johnston 74 Conrad

Forsyth 87 Robinson

Caldwell

99 Moore

Mecklenburg 100 Cotham#

Mecklenburg 50 Meyer

Orange 53 Lewis

Harnett 62 Blust

Guilford 16 Millis#

Pender 104 Bishop*

Mecklenburg 76 Ford

Rowan

38 Lewis Holley

Wake 23 Willingham*

Edgecombe 119 Queen

Haywood 93 Jordan

Ashe 111 Moore

Cleveland 83 Johnson

Cabarrus 10 Bell

Wayne 95 Fraley

Iredell

60 Brockman*

Guilford 47 Graham

Robeson 2 Yarborough* Person 1 Steinburg

Chowan 75 Lambeth#

Forsyth 19 Davis

New Hanover 84 R. Turner

Iredell 89 Setzer

Catawba

58 Johnson*

Guilford 30 Luebke

Durham 22 Brisson

Bladen 65 Jones

Rockingham 88 Bryan

Mecklenburg 4 Dixon Duplin 17

Iler Brunswick 68

Horn Union

107 Alexander

Mecklenburg 43 Floyd

Cumberland 92 Jeter

Mecklenburg 3 Speciale Craven 25

Collins# Nash 59

Hardister Guilford 10

8 Torbett Gaston 94

Elmore Wilkes

56 Insko

Orange 21 L. Bell

Sampson 115 Ager*

Buncombe 51 Salmon*

Harnett 103 Brawley

Mecklenburg 61 Faircloth

Guilford 105 Schaffer

Mecklenburg 79 Howard

Davie

24 Farmer-

Butterfield Wilson

7 Richardson Franklin 6 Tine#

Dare 64 Riddell

Alamance 20 Catlin

New Hanover 52 Boles

Moore 97 Saine

Lincoln

48 Pierce

Scotland 18 Hamilton

New Hanover 8 S. Martin Wilson 11

6 B. Turner* Buncombe 11

2 Hager Rutherford 11

7 McGrady Henderson 85

Dobson McDowell

71 Terry

Forsyth 34 G. Martin

Wake 41 Adcock*

Wake 35 Malone

Wake 113 Whitmire

Transylvania 120 West

Cherokee 73 Zachary*

Yadkin

57 Harrison

Guilford 12 Graham

Lenoir 28 Langdon#

Johnston 80 Watford

Davidson

27 Wray

Northampton 11 D. Hall#

Wake *freshman #thinking about retiring? NR = not running in 2016

90 Stevens

Surry 70 Hurley

Randolph

101 Earle

Mecklenburg 46 Waddell

Columbus 67 Burr

Stanly 78 McNeill

Randolph

CVB  for  NC  HOUSE                      74  REP  –  45  DEM  –  1  UNA  

 CVB  for  NC  SENATE                                                    34  REP  –  16  DEM  STRONG  DEM  (16)   COMPETITIVE  (4)   LEAN  REP  (6)   STRONG  REP  (24)  

28   Robinson  

Guilford   21   Clark  

Hoke   19   Meredith  

Cumberland  

8   Rabon#  Brunswick   50

  Davis  Macon   24

  Gunn  Alamance   39

  Rucho  Mecklenburg  

40   Waddell*  

Mecklenburg  

5   Davis  Greene  

1   Cook  Beaufort  

9   Lee*  New  Hanover   46

  Daniel  Burke   47

  Hise  Mitchell   31

  Krawiec  Forsyth  

38   Ford  

Mecklenburg   13   Smith*  

Robeson   25   McInnis*  

Richmond   15   Alexander*  Wake   27   Wade  

Guilford  

2   Sanderson  Pamlico   44

  Cur\s  Lincoln  

14   Blue#  

Wake   23   Foushee  

Orange   18   Barefoot  

Wake   10   B.  Jackson#  

Sampson   11   Newton  

(NR)  Wilson  

45   Soucek  

Watauga   35   Tucker  

Union  

20   McKissick  

Durham   22   Woodard  

Durham   12   Rabin  

Harne`  

6   Brown  Onslow   48

  Apodaca#  Henderson   42

  Wells*  Catawba  

4   Bryant  Nash   37

  J.  Jackson  Mecklenburg   17

  Barringer  (NR)  Wake   41

  Tarte  Mecklenburg   36

  Hartsell#  Cabarrus   33

  Bingham  (NR)  Davidson  

3  

Smith-­‐Ingram*  Edgecombe  

16   Stein  (NR)  

Wake   26   Berger  

Rockingham   43   Harrington  

Gaston   30   Randleman  

Wilkes  

32   Lowe*  Forsyth   49   Van  

Duyn*  Buncombe  

*freshman #thinking about retiring? NR = not running in 2016

7   Pate  Wayne   34

  Brock  Davie   29

  Tillman  Randolph  

 CVB  for  US  CONGRESS                                        10  REP  –  3  DEM  STRONG  DEM   LEAN  REP  (6)   STRONG  REP  (24)  

12   Adams*  

Guilford  3   Jones  

Pi`  

13   Holding  

Wake  

10   McHenry  

Gaston  

1   Bu`erfield  Wilson  

8   Hudson  Cabarrus  

2   Ellmers  Harne`  

5   Foxx  Watauga  

4   Price  Orange  

7   Rouzer*  Johnston  

6   Walker*  Guilford  

11   Meadows  

Macon  

*freshman  

9   Pi`enger  Mecklenburg  

North Carolina 2016 Election Dynamics

« President, US Sen, Gov on ballot in ‘battleground’ state = a LOT of political ads (candidates + outside groups) = high turnout?

« Turnout: 2000: 59% *2004: 64% *2008: 70% 2012: 68%

« Probable election landscape = Urban v. Rural, Suburbs in play « For Dem presidential candidate to win NC = 2008 voter coalition

of minorities, women and younger voters (Can Clinton do it?)

« Watch for ‘enthusiasm gap’ = one party’s base party voters dislike their party’s candidate(s) more than the other party’s base voters.

NC now significantly influenced by national trends and waves (non-native population = 50% … 20% of voters in NC < 10 years)

Ex: ISIS + Ebola > local issues (Education) = Tillis (GOP) win in 2014

Presidential Primary March 15 = NC will be a key win following Super Tuesday (March 1)

‘Regular’ Primary = May 3 … Voters = ‘didn’t you just ask us to vote?’

(likely no hotly contested Primary in US Senate, Gov or Council of State = low voter turnout & potential legislative incumbent upsets)

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: President

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: US Senate

«  Rated among vulnerable GOP incumbents

« NC CVB = 0, so statewide races generally tend to be competitive

«  2016 = $200+ million in outside spending

«  Suburbs = battleground

«  Democrats don’t have a candidate yet

« NC CVB = 0, so statewide races generally tend to be competitive

«  Suburbs = battleground

«  2016 = $100+ million in outside spending

«  Likely to get ugly quick

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Governor

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Exec Branch

Governor Roy Cooper ($3M)

Ken Spaulding Pat McCrory 56.62% ($2.4M)

Lt. Governor Linda Coleman ($48K) Dan Forest 50.08% ($247K) Attorney General (OPEN)

Sen. Josh Stein ($1.1M) Tim Dunn

Sen. Buck Newton ($200K) Sen. Tamara Barringer

Comm of Insurance W. Goodwin 51.9% ($360K) Heather Grant ($700)

State Auditor Beth Wood 53.71%

Secretary of State Elaine Marshall 53.79%

Comm of Labor Charles Meeker ($15K) Cherie Berry 53.26% ($15K)

Comm of Ag Steve Troxler 53.22%

Super of Public

Instruct June Atkinson 54.24%

State Treasurer Janet Cowell 53.83%

% = 2012 results

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: State Supreme Court

Voters will cast their

ballot as to whether or

not to retain Justice

Robert H. Edmunds (Guilford)

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Court of Appeals

Linda H. Stephens (Wake County)

1st Term Democrat

Robert H. Hunter (Guilford County)

1st Term (appointed 2015) Republican

Richard Dietz (Forsyth County)

1st Term (appointed 2014) Republican

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Factors to Watch

« Economy v. ISIS

« How bad a candidate

is Hillary Clinto?

« Who is the GOP

candidate?

« Is there a 3rd party

candidate?

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Factors to Watch

« Voter attitude (NC now more

influence by ‘national attitude’)

« Outside money

« Who best reaches the

‘undecideds’ (Suburban

Swingers)

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Factors to Watch

« Functioning Democratic Party?

« Factional fighting within GOP

« Campaignable legislative

outcomes from

GOP-controlled Gen Assembly

2014 Election Updates & Insights

Questions?

Joe Stewart Executive Director

jstewart@ncfef.org (919) 614-0520

www.ncfef.org

@ncfef

NCFEF