NCAR July 13 Knowlton Determinants No Notes · • Very likely increased frequency of hot extremes...
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Transcript of NCAR July 13 Knowlton Determinants No Notes · • Very likely increased frequency of hot extremes...
Source: WHO/Europe
Country Heat Casualties
France 14,082
Germany 7,000 Spain 4,200
Italy 4,000
UK 2,045
Netherlands 1,400
Portugal 1,300 Belgium 150
interim total 34,897
Source: INSERM (2003)
Source: Calif Climate Watch (July 2006) Knowlton et al. (EHP 2008)
Source: PL Kinney, ScD
California Air Resources Board 2008
Pinkerton et al. Am J Respir Crit Care Med
176(2):107-8, 2007
Ziska & Caulfield, Aust J Plant Physiol 27:893-8, 2000
• Very likely increased frequency of hot extremes & heat waves
• Projected overall warmer summers, milder winters
• Increases in humidity may exacerbate heat impacts
• Increased urbanization may worsen (UHI, less vegetated land cover)
IPCC (2007)
Simulated changes
in 8-hour standard
exceedence days
with climate
change
1990s — 2020s
Knowlton et al. (2008)
US EPA (2005), Extreme Heat Events Guidebook
