NATO CONSULTATION, COMMAND AND CONTROL AGENCY (NC3A)’ MODELLING AND SIMULATION (M&S)

TOOLS

Teodor STEFANESCU *

Dumitru FAINA-GAGOS **

M&S technology is a key enabler for transforming national militaries and NATO. It can aid many aspects of military activities particularly in the context of defence analysis/planning, experimentation, operational analysis/planning and performing operations; it may be applied in support of corresponding training, exercise and real conducting of these activities and it may also be used at all operational levels and for all kinds of missions.

This paper describes the M&S tools currently developed by or in use at the NATO Consultation, Command and Control Agency (NC3A). The authors provide an overview on the most relevant NC3A M&S tools trying to stress their existence and to stimulate the interest of potential beneficials to use them.

INTRODUCTION

NC3A has three scientific Divisions which are involved with M&S. These are Operations Research Division (ORD), Communications and Information Systems Division (CISD) and Command and Control Systems Division (CCSD). The M&S tools are grouped by the functional areas of Air Forces, Land Forces, Maritime Forces, Joint Forces, Logistics, Exercises, Theatre Missile Defence, Aerospace Ground Surveillance, C2 Systems Design and Architecture, Surveillance and Reconnaissance and Communication and Information System.

There are three categories of source of these NC3A modelling and

simulation tools: a) developed at NC3A; b) obtained by NC3A from external sources and maintained in original or

near-original form; c) obtained by NC3A from external sources and modified. Items in category (a) belong to NC3A and can be provided by NC3A to

all participating nations. Items in categories (b) and (c) belong to the nation that developed them and therefore may not usually be provided to other nations without the permission of the nation of origin.

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The bellow description of the M&S NC3A tools is organized by primary utilization within scientific divisions of the Agency.

I. THE OPERATIONS RESEARCH DIVISION

I.1. AIR FORCES

TAMARI (Theatre-Level Assessment Model For Aerospace-Related Issues)

This is a theatre-level air/land simulation model that can be used to analyse force compositions/capabilities and identify requirements. The model is a symmetrical, closed-loop time-stepping simulation. All outcomes within a mission cycle are determined on an expected value basis.

All assets are explicitly linked to a command level (theatre, operational or tactical). The model air-assets allocator is driven by explicit command-level instructions (apportionment, allotment etc). Air assets, with the exceptions of offensive air support (OAS) aircraft and tactical ballistic missiles (TBM) are assumed to fly attack routes over enemy territory, where it is possible to have interactions with fighters and ground-based air defence systems. TAMARI models command, control, communication and intelligence (C3I) effects by explicit user input for co-ordination of assets and warning delay parameters such as reaction time to scramble air defence aircraft on a base. Early warning of incoming assets is explicitly modelled for AEW orbits, GCI radars etc.

SARA (Surveillance And Reconnaissance Analysis)

SARA is a map-based tool that provides the analyst the capability to assess surveillance coverage from various airborne surveillance and reconnaissance systems under a variety of situations. This allows assessment of issues such as coverage from multiple surveillance systems and providing sufficient sensor coverage.

The methodology adopted for the assessment of surveillance coverage is to determine the areas of intelligence interest within a specified geographic region and determine whether sensor performance of the employed systems will be able to cover the required areas. A line-of-sight analysis is possible to assess terrain masking issues and the necessity of refining the location of these systems to provide sufficient surveillance coverage.

LAMBDA (Land-Air-Maritime Battle Determination Algorithms) - AIR

The LAMBDA-Air represents an Excel Spreadsheet Workbook for use in analysis of Air warfighting operations. Can be used for course of action

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evaluation and comparison, allowing rapid what-if analysis, for rapid screening of theatre-level scenarios, and as a bookkeeping/combat-assessment tool.

It is based on aircraft capabilities for each user defined aircraft type. Calculates sorties flown by eight mission types, damage to airbases, aircraft attrition caused by enemy aircraft and ground based systems, and aircraft killed on the ground. Takes airbase status into account, as well as airborne early warning and electronic support measures. Requires user input for daily allocation of squadrons to roles and target selection. Close air support is an output which can be cut and pasted (or linked) to a ground spreadsheet. Overrun of airbases needs to be manually input into the air workbook based on ground penetration results from ground sheet.

TMDSIM (Theatre Missile Defence Simulation Model)

The model includes many on many operational level simulation of TBM (Tactical Ballistic Missile) and cruise missile defence involving defence architectures for air, land and sea based weapon systems and sensors.

This is a stochastic, time sliced, event driven, physics based platform model with basic Command and Control functions.

I.2 LAND FORCES

GAMMA (Global Aggregated Model for Military Assessment)

Highly aggregated simulation model, which was designed to evaluate

different courses of action in high and low intensity conflict scenarios. This includes strong interdependencies of military and non-military issues, multinational (including non-NATO) operations, asymmetric warfighting, multi-faction conflicts, tasks other than (traditional) military tasks, and severe political constraints on military (or non-military) operations.

The concept of GAMMA is based on an open architecture, which describes all interacting objects such as military units, assets, geographic objects etc in very general terms, so that new types of entities, for example new military unit types of all services or non-military elements such as refugees, civilian population, or civilian organizations (such as The Red Cross), infrastructure elements such as power plants or cities etc can be defined and instantiated easily without requiring program changes.

GAMMA is an event driven simulation model, which can be run both in an interactive (man in the loop) or a closed mode. In the closed mode, conditional orders can be given to each simulation entity. The conditional order concept is very helpful in setting up the environment for the comparison of

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different courses of actions in a given scenario, which is an essential step in NATO's Guidance for Operational Planning.

LAMBDA (Land-Air-Maritime Battle Determination Algorithms) - LAND

Excel Spreadsheet Workbook for use in analysis of Land warfighting

operations. Can be used for course of action evaluation and comparison, allowing rapid what-if analysis. It has also been used as a simple exercise driver. Can also be used for rapid screening of ACE theatre-level scenarios, and as a book-keeping/combat-assessment tool.

Aggregated Land analysis where the theatre is divided into independent

sectors in each of which two coalitions interact with each other. Ground coefficients are used to describe the influence of terrain, posture and other factors (open or covered). Coalitions may be composed of factions which differ by sector. Forces may be described at any command level, and their combat power is summed into a single sector-wide value. CAS and BAI input from LAMBDA AIR (effective sorties). Combat outcomes are based upon aggregated firepower calculations (Lanchester Approach). Military and scientific human interaction required to determine which forces are in contact with each other.

I.3 MARITIME FORCES

MCMEXPERT (MCM Exclusive Planning, Evaluation and Risk Assessment Tool)

MCMEXPERT is a comprehensive tool for planning and analysis of mine

countermeasures (MCM) operations. The current version of MCMEXPERT allows the user to: • plan MCM clearance (single and multiple coverage) and exploratory

operations;

• evaluate the likely effectiveness of planned MCM operations;

• calculate the time/effort relationships to complete a plan;

• assess the threat to shipping before MCM operations, and the remaining risk following clearance operations.

The model uses “expected-values” calculations based on the algorithms developed by the Ad-Hoc Working Group (AHWG) on MCM Planning and Evaluation Models and MCMEXPERT User Group (MEUG).

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These algorithms are not described in NATO publications but HQ NAVNORTH, custodian of the algorithms, will provide, upon request, a copy of the complete set of algorithms used in the program.

LAMBDA (Land Air Maritime Battle Determination Algorithms) - MARITIME

LAMBDA-Maritime is a spreadsheet based collection of models dealing

with efficiency and requirements of various maritime tasks. It has been designed for ad-hoc use (allowing quick “what-if” or sensitivity analysis). Due to the use on exercises current data is tailored to those scenarios and is unclassified.

The development of a maritime Course of Action is dependent on the requirements, efficiency and the results of the maritime tasks to be executed. The tool encompasses a number of sub-models dealing with typical maritime tasks. Those sub-models are not electronically interrelated to each other.

ADEPT (Automated Decision and Evaluation Planning Tool)

ADEPT is a joint multi-player simulation tool with a maximum degree of automation through the application of Artificial Intelligence (AI). The idea is to alleviate the user from making tactical decisions and replace one or more players by an Artificial Intelligence steering its units maximizing objectives considering behavioural aspects and limitations due to perception using the game-theoretical approach. It is being designed under the principles of flexibility, ease of use and object-orientation.

I.4 JOINT FORCES

J-HOGS (Joint High Payoff Targets of Opponent Ground and Surface

Environment)

The Joint high-payoff targets of opponent ground and surface environment (J-HOGS) was developed to support the derivation of offensive requirements for the NATO defence planning process. J-HOGS allows development of targets sets for interdiction in a wide range of scenarios considered for defence planning.

J-HOGS is a map based tool that allows development of targets from various sources of information ranging from classified NATO Intelligence sources to open source information such as the NIMA Digital Aeronautical Flight Information File (DAFIF) that contains open-source information about airports and airbases around the world.

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J-WEASEL (Joint Weapon Effectiveness ASsessment and Electronic Library)

J-WEASEL supports NATO defence planning process by allowing the

evaluation of weapon effectiveness of the weapons employed within NATO for interdiction against ground and surface targets (see J-HOGS entry).

The underlying data from which weapon effectiveness is derived within J-WEASEL originates from the US Joint Munitions Effectiveness Manual (JMEM) assessment of US weapon systems. Other weapons employed by other nations and new weapon developments are assessed by mapping/transforming these weapons to the weapons assessed in JMEMs. Furthermore, other targets that may be considered for defence planning that are not considered in JMEMs are also mapped/transformed from similar target types considered in the JMEM assessments.

The weapon effectiveness assessment is based on the US Joint Munitions Effectiveness Manual in terms of the single-shot probability of kill for a certain weapon against a certain target type. This assessment includes the release conditions of the weapon, the guidance of the weapon, warhead type, and the type of damage required.

J-TBD (Joint Target Based Derivation)

J-TBD is a MS Access database application for the derivation of tri-

Service, joint requirements and equivalencies across the spectrum of Deep Attack/Fire Support capabilities. J-TBD is the calculation of the integrated J-FREYA (Joint Force Requirements and Equivalency Analysis) federation.

The Deep Attack/Fire Support DRR methodology revolves around the derivation of minimum military requirements specified in terms of the number of ‘standard’ aircraft required for each of the traditional air power roles (Offensive Air Support, Air Interdiction, Offensive Counter Air). The total number of targets to be destroyed during each campaign phase under each of the roles provides the initial input to this calculation.

The number of aircraft required to prosecute all these targets to an assumed confidence level can be calculated given the probability of target destruction against each of the individual targets. The probability of target destruction for a particular aircraft/target combination can be derived from knowledge of the number and SSPK of the weapons carried by that aircraft. J-TBD supports both the derivation generic requirement, and also the calculation of the equivalency values required for Deep Attack/Fire Support systems. These equivalencies are the basic inputs required for the Joint Fulfilment phase of the DRR. EXERCISES.

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I.5 EXERCISES

JTLS (Joint Theater-Level Simulation)

An integrated, interactive, multi-sided joint (air, land, naval and Special Operations Forces (SOF)) and combined (coalition warfare) analysis and training support model (with logistics and intelligence functions).

Domain: Air, land, sea, SOF, and Coalition Warfare (CW) (combined) operations. Supported by detailed logistics and integrated intelligence operations.

Span: Vector-based terrain data for real or artificial world permit the model to be used worldwide. The Terrain Manipulation Utility can be used to modify terrain files to support the Joint Theater Level Simulation (JTLS model). The NC3A Map and Unit Builder can be used to create new terrain playboxes. Current map surface area is based on a Lambert conformal projection and, hence, constrained to a rectangular area not to exceed 2,000 NM on each side.

Environment: Hex-based terrain aggregates regional terrain and environmental characteristics: traffic-ability, elevation, chemical or nuclear contamination and weather. Roads currently map hex centre-to-centre. Railroads and pipelines are mapped via independent node-to-node networks. Rivers and shorelines map to hex borders. Point targets modify traffic ability by providing targetable enhancement to the baseline terrain conditions, ie bridges, tunnels, pumping stations, railyards.

Force composition: Multi-sided, CW forces: Air, land, sea and SOF. Also models civilian and non-combatant forces. Forces can be positioned on up to 10 sides and divided into an unlimited number of factions on any side. Side and faction names and colours are user-configurable. Ability to communicate, command and control, survive, perform combat, manoeuvre, gather and process intelligence and sustain assets can vary by faction.

Scope of conflict: Conventional operations and coalition operations at the Operational Level of War. Supports limited nuclear and chemical effects. Tactical Ballistic Missile (TBM) capabilities as well as the suitable defensive assets can be represented explicitly. Extensive capability to control weapon engagement rules in user-specified areas with respect to perceived or unknown entities. Movement across boundaries eg country borders. Supports pre/post-conflict operations and varying levels of intensity. Ability to model asymmetric threat by non-state actors of varying size, composition and capabilities. Ability to represent civil-military co-operation through logistic support to neutral sides, protection of neutral assets and infrastructure.

Mission area: Air, land, sea, amphibious and SOF are explicitly modelled in a pre/post-conflict and in CW environment at the Operational Level of War as defined in a crosswalk with the Joint Staffs’ Universal Joint Task List.

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Methodology: Ten-sided wargame. Hexagon-based terrain representation. “Lanchestrian” ground-combat attrition. Air, naval and other explicit fire effects resolved by ‘probability of kill’ method.

T

Level of detail of processes and entities: The user can define unit sizes, combat systems and supply categories. High-resolution target systems compliment the more aggregate unit structure with requisite detail for systems of interest. Multi-level resolution is the norm. Air-to-air operations can be controlled as aggregate, multi-sided, mission packages, but are adjudicated at the item level and use pH/pK for each mission element. Surface-to-air operations are modelled at the item level and use pE/pK factors for each mission. Air-to-ground, surface-to-surface missiles and artillery (includes Naval Gun Fire Support (NGFS)) operations are modelled at the item level and use pH/pK for precision-guided weapons and target-density functions for area weapons coverage. Land warfare module uses Lanchester methodology to aggregate the effects of direct fire weapons and direct support systems not engaged in explicit fire-support operations. Overall, all processes are targeted toward doctrine-neutral implementation for maximum flexibility.

Special Features High Level Architecture (HLA) compliant. Availability of an open access relational database – Scenario Data Repository (SDR). Distributed, local-area-network-(LAN-) or wide-area-network-(WAN-) based game play. Checkpoint facility allows restart from selected points in game.

I.6 LOGISTICS

ACROSS (Allied Commands Resource Optimization Software System)

It is a requirement of all member nations of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) that they submit a declaration of their forces allocated to NATO. ACROSS is used to calculate the munitions requirements for the assigned forces to meet the overall NATO mission requirements.

ACROSS is a decision support system for munitions and equipment stockpile planning. It consists of a database and four stockpile calculation models, also known as munitions expenditure models. The database is used to store information used by the munitions expenditure models. The database and calculation models are each run individually. The four calculation models are: • ADMEM (Air Defence Munitions Expenditure Model) • AGMEM (Air to Ground Munitions Expenditure Model) • LEMEM (Land Equipment Munitions Expenditure Model) • MARMEM (Maritime Munitions Expenditure Model)

ADMEM, AGMEM and LEMEM are developed by NC3A. MARMEM is developed by the US commercial company Quantics Inc. All models are maintained by NCSA.

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The NC3A models (ADMEM, AGMEM and LEMEM) use Linear Programming, also known as optimization. The models use the mathematical technique of linear programming to calculate the optimal munitions mix to inflict the maximum target damage at the minimum, or the desired, level of cost. The models draw on the data stored in the database. To run the model, the following process is followed: • create one or more scenario(s) containing the relevant force profile and target list; • commence the linear programming optimization process; • make minor changes to user variables in the optimisation parameters and re-run the optimization model.

The results are given both graphically and in tabular form. The solution can be exported to other applications for further analysis if required.

ADAMS (Allied Deployment and Movement System)

ADAMS is an operational system providing national and NATO

movement staffs with the capability for evaluation and planning of movement and transportation operations in support of NATO force deployments. It provides commanders with timely decision-support information on the status of the force deployment, the transportation assets and the lines of communication (LOC) situation and projection.

ADAMS is a decision-support system, not a model. Nevertheless, ADAMS applications include and interface with mobility models.

GDM (General Deployment Model)

GDM is a heuristic scheduling – resource allocation model that is part of

the Allied Deployment and Movement System (ADAMS). It can be used for evaluating a deployment described by a Detailed Deployment Plan (DDP) with a set of options and parameters given by the user.

The model starts by taking the planned movements and using the asset information, road and rail network information, throughput restrictions at several geographic locations and a set of parameters that the user can change to do “what-if” types of analyses. As a result of the allocation another DDP is obtained. This new DDP can be analysed with the tools existing in the Deployment Display Module (DDM), as well as the built-in reports and charts in GDM itself. The resulting DDP can be used as a rough initial plan on which the planners elaborate.

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I.7 OPERATIONAL PLANNING SUPPORT SYSTEMS

TOPFAS (Tools for Operational Planning, Force Activation and Simulation)

The Tool for Operational Planning, Force Activation And Simulation

(TOPFAS) is the data and planning support system for the operational planning and force activation in accordance with the NATO Operational Planning Process (OPP) and Bi-SC Guidelines for Operational Planning (GOP). It provides a common database and framework for the NATO operational planning as well as a common repository of the operational plans and the audit trail for the force requirements.

Operational planning in TOPFAS is harmonized with the Defence Planning Process through the planning situations and generic forces defined in the Defence Requirements Review (DRR). TOPFAS interfaces with the Logistics Management Systems for sustainment and movement and transportation planning (ACROSS and ADAMS). Similar interfaces are being established for the intelligence assessment and the situation overview. OpsBase is the relational database for the family of TOPFAS applications. It is fully harmonized with LogBase and holds the relevant information about military tasks and planning factors as well as the generic and real forces and equipment that may be expected to participate in or impact on NATO-lead operations.

The TOPFAS tools support both Advance and Crisis Response Planning through all phases of the operational planning process:

• initiation based on the Initiating Directive and including the review of forces expected to be available for the operation from the potential troop contributing nations,

• orientation with focus on the Mission Analysis and the identification of assigned and implied tasks and the relevant aspects of the operational environment,

• concept development with identification of the preferred Course of Action (COA) to be developed into the Concept of Operations (CONOPS) including force requirements,

• plan development with the refinement of the CONOPS and, subject to further NAC/DPC authorisation, the formal Force Generation in dialogue with the nations,

• plan review for the further assessment, war-gaming and exercising, including the adaptation of the force requirements to the changing operational environment.

TOPFAS planning is task orientated; ie unit capabilities are expressed as the ability to perform military force oriented tasks. Troop-to-task rules, combined with military expertise, are the basis for the identification of force requirements. TOPFAS will also interface to analytical support tools for the

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assessment of the force-on-force capabilities as well as the estimation of force closure and build-up. TOPFAS provides the necessary ORBAT database management and query tools for the force data in OpsBase.

TOPFAS is intended to be used to: • provide the necessary database and computer based operational

planning support tool in accordance with the NATO Operational Planning System for the SCs and subordinate NATO military HQs with operational planning responsibilities,

• provide the necessary interfacing between the NATO Operational Planning Process (OPP) and other relevant IS and Decision Support tools; eg ICC, JOIIS, ADAMS and ACROSS. AEROSPACE GROUND SURVEILLANCE (CCSD)

II. COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEM DIVISION

II.1 AEROSPACE GROUND SURVEILLANCE

JCATS (Joint Conflict And Tactical Simulation)

The Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) provides a controlled environment for army and joint exercises. It is a multi-sided, interactive, entity-level conflict simulation used as a tool for training, analysis, planning and mission rehearsal.

The simulation is primarily focused at command and control or unit synchronization issues. It offers an opportunity for exercising tactics, techniques and procedures for a wide range of unit types.

JCATS simulates realistic operations in open, rural and urban environments, with natural terrain features, roads and infrastructures. Applying JCATS, leaders can train, rehearse missions and exercise tactical manoeuvres for a wide range of units. JCATS includes route planning, march-ordering, marching, breaching of obstacles and mine fields, protection of positions and mounting and dismounting of troops.

It allows direct fire engagements as well as artillery operations. It models degradation, damage, injuries and measures to repair or first aid. Performance degradation from fatigue, suppression or other effects can be considered. Night operations and weather can be defined. JCATS has a focus on ground operations and allows also modelling of air and naval operations.

JCATS comes with a set of tools which define force structures and hierarchies as well as force characteristics (VISTA), edit and control terrain features (TERREDIT), modify or create symbols (Symbol Editor) or modify the behaviour (Behaviour Model). To review the conduct of an exercise, the Analyst Workstation of JCATS is applied.

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The basic JCATS configuration is designed to run client-server architecture on a local area network (LAN). The simulation server keeps “simulation truth”: the clients listen and filter the data to provide a perception based on the forces assigned to that client.

At NC3A, JCATS is used to model the movements of units and to provide “simulation truth” to a large number of Aerospace Ground Surveillance (AGS) sensors.

JSAF (Joint Semi-Automated Forces)

The Joint Semi-Automated Forces (JSAF) simulation is a collection of High Level Architecture (HLA) based simulation federates used to model military entities and as well as their behaviour. JSAF is a variant of the Modular Semi-Automated Forces (MOD-SAF) application and has many similarities with One-SAF.

JSAF can model ground, air and naval operations, with natural terrain features, roads and infrastructures. A JSAF entity has a wide range of capabilities: it can move, use its sensors, detect and track targets, co-ordinate and control engagements, conduct the engagements and assess engagement effects. A JSAF entity can react on incoming attacks or can avoid obstacles.

JSAF entities can operate subsurface, ground, surface, airborne, both fixed and rotary wing and space-based. At NC3A, JSAF is currently tested to model movements of units and to provide “simulation truth”. The figure shows red and blue forces with the JSAF editor menu.

II.2 C2 SYSTEMS DESIGN AND ARCHITECTURE

ITC/FLAMES (Integrated Training Capability)

Provide controlled environment for air force and joint exercises.

Visualization of Air Task Orders. Object oriented simulation hosted on fielded C2 system architecture.

II.3 SURVEILLANCE AND RECONNAISSANCE

CARST (Communication And Radar Simulation Tool)

Coverage prediction for radars and radios, calculate radar and radio propagation.

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SCOPE (Sensor Coverage Planning Environment)

Coverage prediction for wide range of sensors, sensor systems and radios. Environments can include ECM.

OPM (Online Radar Performance Monitoring Demonstrator)

Constant False Alarm Rate and detection process of a radar in a complex

environment. OPM is to monitor and experiment on the possibilities to change the performance of a radar by a remote operator. HLA simulation of targets, environment, radar detections.

TSM (Total System Model)

The Total System Model (TSM) is a model focused on sensors within an

air defence system. It supports a variety of different radar and Electronic Support Measures (ESM) sensors including bi-static sensors at a range of frequencies on land, sea and air platforms.

It allows modelling of the connection of these sensors to multi-sensor tracking and track-fusion sensors. Basic jamming can be applied to sensors and data-links. Air defence units such as SAM units can be defined, and these can react to air picture data provided to them by tracking and fusion entities. This can either be based on the model’s own artificial intelligence or via a man-in-the-loop.

III. COMMUNICATIONS AND INFORMATION SYSTEMS DIVISION

III.1 HF DATA COMM SIMULATION

Optimisation of protocol parameters in terms of channel data rates, dynamic channel characteristic effects, outage effects, in support of STANAG 5066 activities.

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III.2 CRAMM (CCTA Risk Assessment Modelling Methodology)

Commercially supported software based tool with associated database to document risks to computer and network system configurations, to model threats and vulnerabilities and to recommend counter-measures to be implemented.

With involvement of the end user community, define an information system/network in terms of data, locations, software, hardware and end user services (collectively known as assets) that are at risk. Subjectively value the impact on them should risk materialise. Subjectively quantify the threats and vulnerabilities; have the tool objectively propose relevant counter-measures from a large static library.

References: [1]. NC3A Models and Planning Systems Descriptions, Working Paper EXB/2004/001, N4/1, 2004 [2]. http://www.nc3a.nato.int/expertise.html [3]. http://www.sisostds.org/doclib/index.cfm; [4]. http://www.rta.nato.int/msg.htm [5]. Study report. PATHFINDER. Integration Environment for the Multi-Purpose Application of Distributed Networked Simulations in NATO, 2006 * The former Chief of Simulation Training Office, PhD, General Staff ** The Chief of Naval Operations Office, General Staff

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