National Opinion Poll: February 2016 - Millward Brown · A National Public Opinion Poll was...

1.

National Opinion Poll: February 2016 - for Publication on 21st February 2016

41113688/Paul Moran

2.

National Opinion Poll

3.

Introduction

A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday

Independent to be published on Sunday 21st February 2016.

Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+.

Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror

the 18+ population profile.

Interviewing was conducted at 100 sampling points nationwide.

1,065 Interviews were carried out between 17th – 18th February 2016

Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+.

The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.0%.

4.

The survey results presented here are derived from

The Independent Newspaper Group/Millward Brown

Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of

1,065 adults representative of the approximate 3.43

million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a

face-to-face basis in the home at 100 sampling points

throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of

error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.0%

Interviewing on the poll was carried out between 17th

and 18th February 2016

The poll was conducted in accordance with the

guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and

Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies).

Extracts from the report may be quoted or published

on condition that due acknowledgement is given to

Millward Brown and The Sunday Independent.

© Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent 2016.

Introduction

POLL

5.

Some subtle shifts in opinion, but not a lot has

changed.

This final Sunday Independent/Millward Brown opinion poll before next week’s General Election, was conducted on

Wednesday and Thursday of this week. Therefore it measured the pulse of the nation exactly two weeks into what

has been quite frankly, a rather dull campaign.

Fieldwork commenced shortly after the second televised leaders’ debate on Monday, where all seven leaders had

the opportunity to advance their causes.

On the face of it, not a lot has changed since our last national poll at the beginning of the month. However, scratch

beneath the surface, and there are some subtle shifts in opinion.

Opinions are becoming more focused – just 13pc at this stage claim to be undecided. However, this poll sought only

the views of those both registered to vote, and intending to do so with some degree of certainly (those who will

definitely/probably vote next Friday). Therefore, whilst results with previous tracking polls are not directly

comparable, we can still use them as a relative benchmark.

First off, the overall Party support. Fine Gael remains top of the pecking order, and stands at 27pc. Fianna Fáil

trails by four points at 23pc, and Labour remains firmly in the Doldrums at six percent. Sinn Féin now attracts 19pc

of the vote, with Independents/other parties continuing to excel – they are the second largest grouping at 25pc.

From a statistical point of view, there is no real change of note. So is the electorate becalmed? Not really.

Some in Fine Gael might rue not going to the country in the Autumn. However, by doing so would not have

guaranteed any further success. The issue for Fine Gael is that their campaign has stuttered from the outset. The

widely held view was that this was Fine Gael’s election to lose. The assumed narrative of the campaign was that it

would be a straightforward slugfest on the economy.

6.


changed (Cont’d)

However, opposition parties have deftly sidestepped this frontal assault, and turned defence into attack in terms of

focussing on society, and societal needs – the Government Parties’ perceived soft underbelly. The public have

warmed to this message (health {as always} but also homelessness have consistently been to the fore as key issues,

as opposed to the obvious economic message).

There are two reasons why this has been made easier for the opposition – many do not see the benefits of the

recovery as yet, whilst for others, the role that Government claims to have played in it has been exaggerated -

external factors have been more than benign to us of late. It will be interesting to see if the threatened economic

“fear offensive” will gain traction – the impact of that message has been lukewarm so far.

There are indicators in this poll that the public may not find such a single-minded strategy compelling – just one in

three (34pc) agree that a change in Government would put Ireland’s economic stability at risk – and it is only Fine

Gael supporters who have any conviction on this (66pc of them agree, compared to just 39pc of Labour supporters).

Similarly, and reflecting the opposition’s message of fairness in society, 57pc believe a change of Government could

lead to a fairer society.

How the Government parties channel this message will be critical over the next few days.

Labour have always been on the back foot, and on the basis of these results, will have a very long and

uncomfortable day at the count centres next Saturday. From a long way out, there has been a sense that relying on

things to change dramatically during the course of a campaign was optimistic at best. It would seem that the

party’s message is going unheeded.

In addition, Labour have been caught between a rock and a hard place; losing support to the far left, but finding

itself having to align with the centre right (FG) for self-preservation purposes. In essence, the Labour brand has

been hugely diluted.

7.


changed (Cont’d)

A particular worry for Labour is that their traditional stronghold of Dublin (often the cockpit of the election), is

faring no better (7pc support). This election may well be a case of damage limitation at best.

It also seems that some senior figures within the Labour Party have gone to ground. Joan Burton seems to be

ploughing a lonely furrow.

Fianna Fáil have been, to a certain extent, the surprise package so far in this campaign. Michéal Martin has

performed competently over the past couple of weeks, as have his senior team. So far at least, they have been

relatively comfortable in counteracting accusations laid against them. This is reflected in the public’s appraisal of

his role as party leader – satisfaction with his performance is at 40pc – far above all others, and significantly ahead

of where he was at the outset of the campaign.

Sinn Féin have slipped off the pace slightly. The party began this campaign brightly (exposing the anomaly of the

Government’s fiscal space). There is a sense however, that Gerry Adams’ grasp of the minutiae of detail is brittle at

best. In addition, there is also a question mark over the party’s ability to get its voters out on the day (its support

being skewed towards cohorts who traditionally tend not to vote – younger and from lower socio–economic

cohorts). If this Achilles’Heel can be rectified, it could be a very good day for Sinn Fein next Saturday. Either way, it

is certain that SF will significantly increase its representation in the 32nd Dáil.

Independents/other parties continue to perform strongly. In particular, there have been notable gains for AAA/PbP

(5pc), and the Social Democrats (4pc). Renua and the Greens register 2pc each. These smaller parties took full

advantage of their participation on the Leaders’ debate on Monday, making points that resonated with the audience.

We need to treat these National figures for smaller parties with caution – for some parties, there may be a desire to

vote for them, but no candidates will be available within that voter’s particular constituency. For others, a

nationwide poll may not reflect fully their strength within specific areas, or constituency strongholds, and thus the

seats they may gain.

8.


changed (Cont’d)

Taking a step back, it is clear that with the Government parties at a combined support level of just 33pc, the next

five days will be critical. The political landscape has not been this fractured in generations. Whilst forecasting the

rank order of how parties will perform is relatively straightforward, how this will translate into forming a

Government is anybody’s guess.

9.

The Results

10.

Party Support:

First preference (Incl./Excl. Undecideds)

23

20

17

11

5

4

3

2

1

1

-

13

Party Support incl. don’t knows

%

Fine Gael

Fianna Fáil

Sinn Féin

Independent Candidate

Labour

Anti Austerity Alliance-People

Before Profit

Social Democrats

Renua Ireland

Green Party

The Socialist Party

Other Party

Don’t Know

Party Support Excl. don’t knows

(n=931) %

Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)

27

23

19

13

6

5

4

2

2

1

-

Fine Gael

Fianna Fáil

Sinn Féin


Labour

Anti Austerity Alliance-People

Before Profit

Social Democrats

Green Party

Renua Ireland

The Socialist Party

Other Party

11.

Party Support X Demographics

%

27

23

19

13

6

5

4

2

2

1

Fine Gael

Fianna Fáil

Sinn Féin


Labour

Anti Austerity Alliance-

People Before Profit

Social Democrats

Green Party

Renua Ireland

The Socialist Party

Base: All giving a first preference

GENDER AGE

Male

%

Female

%

18-24

%

25-34

%

35-44

%

45-54

%

55-64

%

65+

%

27 26 22 21 28 26 26 33

24 22 21 19 18 22 24 31

17 21 31 30 18 19 13 10

14 11 11 15 13 12 14 12

6 6 2 1 6 8 8 9

5 4 6 4 6 5 5 2

4 4 4 4 5 5 5 1

1 2 1 3 3 2 1 -

2 2 - 1 2 2 3 3

- 1 1 2 * - 1 -

12.


%

27

23

19

13

6

5

4

2

2

1

Fine Gael

Fianna Fáil

Sinn Féin


Labour

Anti Austerity Alliance-

People Before Profit

Social Democrats

Green Party

Renua Ireland

The Socialist Party


SOCIAL CLASS REGION

AB

%

C1

%

C2

%

DE

%

F

%

ABC1

%

C2DE

%

DUBLIN

%

REST OF

LEINSTER

%

MUNSTER

%

CONN/

ULSTER

%

38 29 21 18 48 32 19 30 23 21 34

24 21 24 21 36 22 22 15 27 28 22

7 13 25 30 3 11 28 20 23 16 17

11 14 13 13 10 13 13 7 8 20 16

3 7 5 7 - 6 7 7 6 7 3

6 5 4 5 - 5 5 8 4 3 3

5 3 5 4 - 4 4 7 4 3 1

1 3 1 1 - 3 1 3 2 2 -

3 1 2 1 3 2 2 3 1 1 3

1 2 - - - 2 - * 1 * 1

13.

Party Support: First Preference

(Incl./Excl. Undecideds)

20%

23%

13%

22%

5% 17%

Party Support Incl. Don’t knows


Party Support Excl. Don’t knows

23%

27%

25%

6% 19%

()=National Results (Jan/Feb 2016) *Includes all other parties

Independents/ Others* (17)

Fianna Fáil (17)

Fine Gael (20)

Labour (4)

Sinn Féin (16)

Don’t know (26)

Fianna Fáil (22)

Fine Gael (27)

Labour (6)

Sinn Féin (21)

Independents/ Others* (23)

14.


%


GENDER AGE

Male

%

Female

%

18-24

%

25-34

%

35-44

%

45-54

%

55-64

%

65+

%

27 26 22 21 28 26 26 33

26 25 23 28 30 25 29 17

24 22 21 19 18 22 24 31

17 21 31 30 18 19 13 10

6 6 2 1 6 8 8 9

*Includes all other parties

27

25

23

19

6

Fine Gael

Independents/Others*

Fianna Fáil

Sinn Féin

Labour

15.



SOCIAL CLASS REGION

AB

%

C1

%

C2

%

DE

%

F

%

ABC1

%

C2DE

%

DUBLIN

%

REST OF

LEINSTER

%

MUNSTER

%

CONN/

ULSTER

%

38 29 21 18 48 32 19 30 23 21 34

28 29 25 24 13 28 24 28 20 29 23

24 21 24 21 36 22 22 15 27 28 22

7 13 25 30 3 11 28 20 23 16 17

3 7 5 7 - 6 7 7 6 7 3


%

27

25

23

19

6

Fine Gael


Fianna Fáil

Sinn Féin

Labour

16.

Satisfaction with the Government: Satisfaction is driven by

those who are older or more affluent, farmers and FG

supporters

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 65+ 41

ABs 42

Farming Community 49

Conn/Ulster Residents 39

Supporters of FG 76

Supporters of Labour 44

66%

30%

5%

Don’t know (9%)

Dissatisfied (62%) Satisfied

(29%)

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 25-34 70

DEs 75

Munster Residents 73

Supporters of FF 80

Supporters of SF 93

Supporters of

Independents/Others 81

Three in Ten adults are happy with

the current performance

( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 2016)


17. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?

Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Enda Kenny

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 65+ 38

ABs 36



Supporters of FG 72


68%

28%

5% Don’t know (11%)

Dissatisfied (62%)

Satisfied (27%)

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 35-44 72

C2DEs 74


Supporters of FF 82

Supporters of SF 94

Supporters of




18. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?

Satisfaction with Joan Burton

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 65+ 35



Supporters of FG 54


69%

25%

6%

Don’t know (16%)

Dissatisfied (62%)

Satisfied (22%)

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 25-34 75

C2DEs 76


Supporters of FF 79

Supporters of SF 92

Supporters of




19.

47% 40%

12%

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?

Satisfaction with Michéal Martin

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 55-64 51

Age 65+ 51

ABs 45


Supporters of FF 80

Don’t know (25%)

Dissatisfied (48%)

Satisfied (27%)

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 35-44 54

DEs 53

Supporters of FG 51

Supporters of SF 69

Supporters of




20.

60% 28%

12%

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

Satisfaction with Gerry Adams

Don’t know (18%)

Dissatisfied (55%)

Satisfied (27%)

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 25-34 35

C2DEs 37

Leinster Residents 32

Supporters of SF 83

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 65+ 74

ABs 74



Supporters of FF 72

Supporters of FG 82


Supporters of




21. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua

Ireland?

Satisfaction with Lucinda Creighton

37%

30%

33%

HIGHER AMONG %

Males 42

Age 55-64 43


Supporters of SF 41

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 65+ 41

ABs 38

Dublin Residents 34

Supporters of FF 34

Supporters of FG 37


Supporters of


Don’t know (43%)

Dissatisfied (42%)

Satisfied (16%)



22.

26 53 82 94 82

37 32 79 92 80

51 45 16 69 57

82 64 72 11 68

33 28 39 41 40

Supporters %

Supporters %

Supporters %

Supporters %


Supporters %

72 41 14 4 15

54 64 16 4 16

39 40 80 18 30

9 21 17 83 21

37 37 34 17 34

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland?

Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support

SATISFIED

DISSATISFIED

28%

25%

40%

28%

30%

Enda Kenny (27)

Joan Burton (22)

Michéal Martin (27)

Gerry Adams (27)

Lucinda Creighton (16)

Total

68%

69%

47%

60%

37%

Enda Kenny (62)

Joan Burton (62)

Michéal Martin (48)

Gerry Adams (51)

Lucinda Creighton (42)




23. Q. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any upcoming election?

Which Parties are most toxic to whom? SF are the least

transfer friendly, with FF being less toxic among the main

parties

WOULD NOT

CONSIDER

35%

35%

27%

50%

15%

25%

21%

21%

10%

Fine Gael (34)

Labour (31)

Fianna Fáil (24)

Sinn Féin (37)

Renua Ireland (12)

AAA-People Before

Profit (16)

Socialist Party (19)

Green Party (19)

Social Democrats (11)

Total



Supporters %

Supporters %

Supporters %

Supporters %


Supporters %

- 18 39 75 51

12 - 46 66 42

25 37 - 56 37

78 64 62 - 51

16 30 16 19 12

46 26 28 13 15

30 29 29 11 16

22 16 22 27 22

15 14 15 5 6


24. Q. How certain are you about your decision to vote the way you intend to in the upcoming General Election?

How certain are voters in their convictions? Labour and

Independents are less surefooted in their voting intentions

Absolutely certain

56

26 31 26 37

27

28

57 56 64 38 53

11 14 9 8 16 12

5 3 3 2

8 8

Don’t know * * - - - *

Net Score (Any confident minus Any

doubters)

68

(61)

66

(59)

76

(68)

78

(75)

52

(22)

59

(52)

Pretty certain

Some reservations Not at all certain

Total (931)

%

Fine Gael Supporters

(248) %

Fianna Fáil Supporters

(215) %

Sinn Fein Supporters

(174) %

Labour Supporters

(56) %

Independents/ Others*

Supporters (238)

%

83%

17%

88%

12%

89%

11%

76%

24%

79%

20% -

Base: All giving a first preference (931)


84%

16%


25.

35%

14%

11%

10%

9%

6%

5%

3%

3%

2%

1%

1%

*

1st Mention %

Health Services/Hospitals (37)

Management of the economy (11)

Crime/Law and Order in General (10)

Unemployment/jobs (13)

The homeless situation/Lack of Local Authority Housing (9)

Water Charges (5)

Mortgage Repayment Rates/House prices/Cost of Rent (7)

Crime/Law and Order relating to Gangland Crime (n/a)

Childcare (3)

Abortion (1)

Issues within my own constituency (1)

Something else (1)

Don't know (2)

Q. What are the most important issues or problems that will influence your decision as to how you will vote in the

next General Election. What other issues are important to you in this election?

Most Important Issue when casting vote (First Mention):

Health by far remains the #1 priority



26. Q. What are the most important issues or problems that will influence your decision as to how you will vote in the

next General Election. What other issues are important to you in this election?

Most Important Issues: All Mentions –

Homelessness, economic issues and crime are also pertinent


Health Services/Hospitals

The homeless situation/Lack of Local Authority Housing

Unemployment/jobs

Management of the economy

Crime/Law and Order in General

Water Charges

Mortgage Repayment Rates/House prices/Cost of Rent

Crime/Law and Order relating to Gangland Crime

Childcare

Abortion

Issues within my own constituency

Something Else

Don't know

35%

9%

10%

14%

11%

6%

5%

3%

3%

2%

1%

1

*

23%

14%

14%

12%

9%

9%

7%

4%

3%

1%

1%

2

*

16%

16%

13%

10%

10%

12%

6%

5%

5%

3%

3%

2%

*

1st Mention

2nd

Mention 3rd

Mention Any Mention

%

74

39

37

35

30

27

18

13

11

6

5

5

1

(72)

(40)

(44)

(32)

(31)

(26)

(23)

(n/a)

(11)

(5)

(3)

(4)

(4)


27.

11% 33%

10%

23%

24%

Preferred options in the event of a deadlocked Dáil – one in

three would like a rerun, but the Grand Coalition gains some

traction

Don’t Know

Some other combination

A new election

A Fine Gael and Fianna

Fáil Coalition

HIGHER AMONG %

Males 28

Age 65+ 38



Supporters of FF 38

Supporters of FG 38

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 18-24 43

C2s 40

Dublin Residents 38

Supporters of Labours 46

Supporters of SF 48

Q. In the event of the next Dáil being deadlocked, whereby none of the parties can form a Government

with their preferred options, which of the following would be your preferred choice?


A Fine Gael Minority

28. Q. How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements…

34%

49%

3% 3%

Any Agree

Any Disagree

It Depends

Don't Know


“A change of Government would put Ireland’s economic stability at risk”

“A change of Government would help create a fairer society”

57% 23%

3% 3%

Any Agree

Any Disagree

It Depends

Don't Know

AGREEMENT

HIGHER AMONG %

ABC1s 39

Dublin Residents 38


Supporters of FG 66


DISAGREEMENT

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 45-54 55

C2DEs 56


Supporters of FF 63

Supporters of SF 66

Supporters of


AGREEMENT

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 55-64 62

C2DEs 63


Supporters of FF 70

Supporters of SF 85

Supporters of


DISAGREEMENT

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 65+ 34

ABC1s 29


Supporters of FG 50


Half believe that economic stability is not at risk by a change

of Government, and a majority feel it could lead to a fairer

society

(33%)

(42%)

(5%) (8%)

(50%) (19%)

(6%)

(8%)


29.

It is only FG supporters who are likely to follow the

Government message of “Stability vs Chaos”. Labour are

more nuanced

Q. How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements…

Total

%


(248) %


(215) %


(174) %

Labour Supporters

(56) %

Independents Others*

Supporters (238)

%

Strongly agree

Somewhat agree

Neither

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

It depends Don’t know

“A change of Government would put Ireland’s economic stability at risk”


34%

49%

66%

20%

19%

63%

18%

66%

39%

47%

26%

60%

13

32

5 6 13 10

20

35

15 12

25

16

11

10

11 10

8

10

17

13

21

14

18

20

32

7

42 51

29 39

3 2

2 3 2 1 3 1

5 3 5 4


30.

Sinn Féin and FF supporters are most strident in their view

that a change of Government will lead to a fairer society

Q. How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements…

Total

%


(248) %


(215) %


(174) %

Labour Supporters

(56) %


Supporters (238)

%

Strongly agree

Somewhat agree

Neither

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree It depends

Don’t know

“A change of Government would help create a fairer society” Base: All Aged 18+ (1,065)

57%

23%

27%

50%

70%

15%

85%

6%

46%

30%

64%

17%

24

7

35

44

14

24

33

20

36

40

32

41

14

20

9

5

19

15 12

27

8

4

20

9 11

24

7 2

9 7

3 *

2 3 3 3 3 2 4 2 2 1


31.

32%

17%

15%

5%

7%

12%

12%

Trust Most x Party Support

Trust

Most


(248) %


(215) %


(174) %

Labour Supporters

(56) %


Supporters (238)

%

Fine Gael (24) 90 12 5 26 19

Fianna Fáil (17) 3 66 1 2 10

Sinn Fein (13) * 1 75 2 8

Labour (3) 1 * 1 49 8

Somebody else (7) 1 - 4 4 23

None of them (16) 3 10 8 13 22

Don’t know (19) 1 10 7 6 11

Q. Which one of the following parties do you trust most to manage the public finances over the next 5 years?

Nearly one in three feel that Fine Gael is the party they can

trust most to manage the economy



32. Q. Which one of the following parties do you trust least to manage the public finances over the next 5 years?

Sinn Féin is still doubted by many to manage the public

finances

18%

13%

42%

11%

3%

6%

6%


Trust Least x Party Support

Trust

Least


(248) %


(215) %


(174) %

Labour Supporters

(56) %


Supporters (238)

%

Fine Gael (17) * 16 47 11 24

Fianna Fáil (10) 15 2 19 21 16

Sinn Fein (31) 72 52 - 59 39

Labour (11) 4 17 22 2 8

Somebody else (2) 2 3 3 2 2

None of them (8) 1 5 4 2 4

Don’t know (21) 5 5 5 3 6


33.

Most Effective x Party Support

Most

Effective


(248) %


(215) %


(174) %

Labour Supporters

(56) %


Supporters (238)

%

Fine Gael 56 7 2 18 15

Fianna Fáil 5 57 7 4 14

Sinn Fein 5 7 63 22 20

Labour 2 1 1 26 2

Somebody else 1 1 3 - 13

None of them 10 7 9 14 16

Don’t know 21 20 15 17 20

Q. Which one of the following parties do you think will be MOST effective in tackling Gangland Crime?

Which Party would be considered most effective in tackling

Gangland Crime?

Very little difference between the three main parties

20%

18%

20%

3%

4%

11%

23%



34. Q. Which one of the following parties do you think will be LEAST effective in tackling Gangland Crime?

Which Party would be considered least effective in tackling

Gangland Crime?

One in three have doubts about Sinn Féin

17%

6%

34%

13%

4%

17%

10%


Least Effective x Party Support

Least

Effective


(248) %


(215) %


(174) %

Labour Supporters

(56) %


Supporters (238)

%

Fine Gael 2 16 41 19 20

Fianna Fáil 8 - 11 6 5

Sinn Fein 55 43 4 42 35

Labour 8 18 21 2 13

Somebody else 5 3 3 5 3

None of them 15 16 11 9 12

Don’t know 7 4 9 17 13


35.

There is little appetite to abolish the Special Criminal Court

ARE YOU IN FAVOUR OR AGAINST THE ABOLITION OF THE SPECIAL CRIMINAL

COURT?

68% 13%

13%

6%

Don’t Know

It Depends

In favour of the abolition

Against the abolition

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 65+ 76

ABs 78



Supporters of FF 76

Supporters of FG 80


HIGHER AMONG %

Age 25-34 17

C2DEs 16

Supporters of SF 29

Q. Are you in favour or against the abolition of the Special Criminal Court??


36.

Most Credible x Party Support

Most

Credible


(248) %


(215) %


(174) %

Labour Supporters

(56) %


Supporters (238)

%

Fine Gael 71 4 1 7 12


Sinn Fein * 2 70 - 6

Labour 3 * 2 46 2

Renua Ireland 1 3 2 2 7

Anti Austerity Alliance-People before Profit

- 1 2 - 15

The Socialist Party - - - - 3

Social Democrats 1 1 2 5 14

Green Party 1 - 2 - 5

Q. From what you have heard so far during the campaign, which of the following political parties have the MOST

credible manifesto?

Fine Gael are perceived to have the most credible

manifesto, but are only marginally ahead of Fianna Fáil

21%

18%

14%

4%

3%

4%

1%

4%

2%



37. Q. Finally, from what you have heard so far during the campaign, which of the following political parties have the

LEAST credible manifesto?

Sinn Féin’s manifesto is considered least credible by three in

ten, with some doubts (16pc) over FG’s policies


Least Credible x Party Support

Least

Credible


(248) %


(215) %


(174) %

Labour Supporters

(56) %


Supporters (238)

%

Fine Gael * 18 33 15 22


Sinn Fein 50 39 1 32 27

Labour 4 12 25 - 12

Renua Ireland 3 2 2 5 2

Anti Austerity Alliance-People before Profit

12 4 5 8 7

The Socialist Party 1 2 1 2 1

Social Democrats 2 * 1 2 *

Green Party 3 4 1 2 1

16%

9%

30%

10%

2%

7%

1%

1%

2%


38. 41113688/Paul Moran

For more information, please contact: Paul Moran

[email protected] 086 341 1970

Millbank House | Arkle Road | Sandyford | Dublin 18 t. +353 (1) 297 4500 | www.millwardbrown.com/ie

National Opinion Poll: February 2016 - Millward Brown · A National Public Opinion Poll was...

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