National Economic Indicators - Richmond Fed Labor Productivity May-07-2020 08:31 Q1-2020 41 Unit...

National Economic Indicators

May 18, 2020

Table of ContentsGDP Release Date Latest Period Page

Table : Real Gross Domestic Product Apr-29-2020 08:33 Q1-2020 4

Real Gross Domestic Product Apr-29-2020 08:33 Q1-2020 5

Decomposition of Real Gross Domestic Product Apr-29-2020 08:33 Q1-2020 6

Households

Retail Sales May-15-2020 08:30 Apr-2020 7

Consumer Spending and Income Apr-30-2020 08:31 Mar-2020 8

Sales of Automobiles and Light Trucks May-01-2020 17:50 Apr-2020 9

Personal Saving Rate Apr-30-2020 08:31 Mar-2020 10

Household Net Worth Mar-12-2020 12:07 Q4-2019 11

Existing Single-Family Home Sales Apr-21-2020 10:00 Mar-2020 12

New Single-Family Home Sales Apr-23-2020 10:01 Mar-2020 13

Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits Apr-16-2020 08:30 Mar-2020 14

Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits Apr-16-2020 08:30 Mar-2020 15

Business Investment

Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures Apr-29-2020 08:33 Q1-2020 16

Real Private Construction Put in Place May-01-2020 10:00 Mar-2020 17

Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Apr-29-2020 08:33 Q1-2020 18

Real Investment in Equipment Apr-29-2020 08:33 Q1-2020 19

Real Investment in Intellectual Property Apr-29-2020 08:33 Q1-2020 20

Trade

Balance of International Trade May-07-2020 08:31 Mar-2020 21

Exchange Value of the USD Apr-28-2020 09:09 Dec-2019 22

Manufacturing

Industrial Production May-15-2020 09:17 Apr-2020 23

Capacity Utilization Rate: Manufacturing May-15-2020 09:17 Apr-2020 24

Indexes of Manufacturing Activity May-01-2020 10:02 Apr-2020 25

Indexes of Non-Manufacturing Activity May-05-2020 10:02 Apr-2020 26

Table : ISM Business Survey Indexes May-01-2020 10:02 Apr-2020 27

Manufacturers' New Orders May-15-2020 10:03 Mar-2020 28

Core Capital Goods May-15-2020 10:03 Mar-2020 29

Business Inventory/Sales Ratios May-15-2020 10:05 Mar-2020 30

(continued)Labor Market Release Date Latest Period Page

Nonfarm Payroll Employment May-08-2020 08:30 Apr-2020 31, 32

Unemployment Rate Measures May-08-2020 08:30 Apr-2020 33,34

Non-Employment Index May-15-2020 14:50 Apr-2020 35

Labor Market Flows May-15-2020 10:00 Mar-2020 36

Labor Force Participation May-08-2020 08:30 Apr-2020 37

Aggregate Weekly Hours Index May-08-2020 08:30 Apr-2020 38

Average Hourly Earnings May-08-2020 08:30 Apr-2020 39

Employment Cost Index Apr-30-2020 08:31 Q1-2020 40

Business Labor Productivity May-07-2020 08:31 Q1-2020 41

Unit Labor Costs, Nonfarm Business May-07-2020 08:31 Q1-2020 42

Inflation

Table : Gauges of Inflation May-01-2020 05:40 Apr-2020 43

Expenditure Price Indexes Apr-30-2020 08:31 Mar-2020 44, 45

Consumer Price Indexes May-12-2020 08:32 Apr-2020 46

Producer Price Indexes May-13-2020 08:34 Apr-2020 47

Commodity Price Indexes May-01-2020 05:40 Apr-2020 48

Crude Oil Prices May-18-2020 18-May-2020 49

TIPS Inflation Compensation May-12-2020 15:42 08-May-2020 50

Monetary Policy & Financial Markets

Federal Reserve System Assets May-14-2020 16:32 13-May-2020 51

Monetary Policy Instruments May-17-2020 08:12 15-May-2020 52

Real Federal Funds Rate Apr-30-2020 08:31 Apr-2020 53

FOMC Statement 54, 55

Eurodollar Futures May-18-2020 18-May-2020 56

SEP: Federal Funds Rate 57

Monetary Base May-07-2020 16:31 06-May-2020 58

M2 May-14-2020 16:31 Apr-2020 59

Money Market Rates May-17-2020 08:12 15-May-2020 60

Capital Market Rates May-17-2020 08:12 15-May-2020 61

Treasury Yield Curve May-15-2020 16:30 15-May-2020 62

Risk Premium May-17-2020 08:12 15-May-2020 63

Real Gross Domestic Product

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 4

2019 2020

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]:

Gross Domestic Product 3.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 -4.8

Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.1 4.6 3.2 1.8 -7.6

Nonresidential Fixed Investment 4.4 -1.0 -2.3 -2.4 -8.6

Structures 4.0 -11.1 -9.9 -7.2 -9.7

Equipment -0.1 0.8 -3.8 -4.3 -15.2

Intellectual Property 10.8 3.6 4.7 2.8 0.4

Residential Fixed Investment -1.0 -3.0 4.6 6.5 21.0

Exports of Goods & Services 4.1 -5.7 1.0 2.1 -8.7

Imports of Goods & Services -1.5 0.0 1.8 -8.4 -15.3

Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers 1.8 3.6 2.2 1.6 -5.4

LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2012) Dollars]:

Change in Private Inventories 116.0 69.4 69.4 13.1 -16.3

Net Exports of Goods & Services -944.0 -980.7 -990.1 -900.7 -817.4

0.7Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross

Investment2.9 4.8 1.7 2.5

Real Gross Domestic Product

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics & Federal Reserve Board5

Note: Projection is the median, central tendency, and range from the December 2019 Summary of Economic

Projections. Red dots indicate median projections. Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP)

are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

Decomposition of Real GDP

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 6

Note: Productivity is calculated as real GDP per employee, from the Household Survey.

Retail Sales

Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 7

Note: Retail sales includes food services.

Feb Mar Apr

Total -0.4 -8.3 -16.4

x Gasoline -0.2 -7.6 -15.5

Month over Month % Change

Consumer Spending and Income


Note: Income has been adjusted to account for temporary fiscal actions in 2008 and 2012-2013.

Jan Feb Mar

Income 0.4 0.4 -1.7

Expenditures 0.3 0.1 -7.3

Month over Month % Change

Sales of Automobiles & Light Trucks

Source: Autodata Corporation via Haver Analytics 9

Personal Saving Rate


Note: Income has been adjusted to account for temporary fiscal actions in 2008 and

2012-2013.

Household Net Worth

Source: Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States via Haver Analytics 11

Existing Single-Family Home Sales

Source: National Association of Realtors via Haver Analytics 12

New Single-Family Home Sales


Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits


Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits


Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures


Real Private Construction Put In Place


Notes: Private nonresidential construction deflated using the price index for private fixed investment

in nonresidential structures and private residential construction deflated using the private residential

investment chain price index.

Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment


Real Investment in Equipment


Real Investment in Intellectual Property


Balance of International Trade


Exchange Value of the USD

Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 22

Industrial Production


Capacity Utilization Rate: Manufacturing


Indexes of Manufacturing Activity

Source: Institute for Supply Management & Richmond Fed via Haver Analytics 25

Indexes of Non-Manufacturing Activity

Source: Institute for Supply Management & Richmond Fed via Haver Analytics 26

ISM: Business Survey Indexes

Source: Institute for Supply Management via Haver Analytics 27

DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate more favorable responses towards

economic activity.

Mar. Apr. Mar. Apr.

Purchasing Managers Index 49.1 41.5 Non-Manufacturing Index 52.5 41.8

Production 47.7 27.5 Business Activity 48.0 26.0

New Orders 42.2 27.1 New Orders 52.9 32.9

Employment 43.8 27.5 Employment 47.0 30.0

Supplier Deliveries 65.0 76.0 Supplier Deliveries 62.1 78.3

Inventories 46.9 49.7 Inventories 41.5 46.9

Prices 37.4 35.3 Prices 50.0 55.1

Backlog of Orders 45.9 37.8 Backlog of Orders 55.0 47.7

New Export Orders 46.6 35.3 New Export Orders 45.9 36.3

Imports 42.1 42.7 Imports 40.2 49.3

MANUFACTURING BUSINESS: NON-MANUFACTURING BUSINESS:

Manufacturers’ New Order


Core Capital Goods


Notes: Core capital goods are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.

Business Inventory/Sales Ratio


Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics 31

Nonfarm Payroll Employment


Apr -20537

Mar -881

Feb 251

Jan 214

Dec 184

Monthly Change

Unemployment Rate

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 33

Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the

December 2019 meeting. Red dots indicate median projections

Measures of Labor Utilitzation


Non-Employment Index

35

Based on “Measuring Resource Utilization in the Labor Market,” Andreas Hornstein, Marianna

Kudlyak, and Fabian Lange, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly, First

Quarter 2014.

Labor Market Flows

Source: JOLTS via Haver Analytics 36

Note: *Percent of total employment. **Percent of total employment plus job openings.

Labor Force Participation


Aggregate Weekly Hours Index


Average Hourly Earnings


Apr 4.7

Mar 0.5

Feb 0.3

Jan 0.2

Dec 0.1

Monthly % Change

Employment Cost Index


Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business


Q1-20 -2.5

Q4-19 1.2

Q3-19 -0.3

Q2-19 2.7

Quarter Change

at Annual Rate

Unit Labor Cost, Nonfarm Business


Notes: Alternate series is derived from the Employment Cost Index.

Q1-20 4.8

Q4-19 0.9

Q3-19 0.2

Q2-19 0.1

At Annual Rate

Quarterly Change

Gauges of Inflation

Source: BEA, BLS, & Commodity Research Bureau via Haver Analytics 43

Notes: Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services.

Expenditure Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:

Feb. Mar. YoY %

Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.0 -3.2 1.3

Core (excludes Food and Energy) 1.9 -1.0 1.7

Consumer Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:

Mar. Apr. YoY %

All Items -5.0 -9.1 0.3

Core (excludes Food and Energy) -1.2 -5.2 1.4

Producer Price Indexes [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:

Mar. Apr. YoY %

Finished Goods -12.6 -34.7 -4.9

Core (excludes Food and Energy) 3.5 -0.6 1.1

Core Intermediate Goods -0.6 -16.1 -3.0

Crude GoodsCrude Goods -63.0 -83.0 -28.2

Spot Commodity Price Index

Mar. Apr. YoY %

CRB Spot Commodity Price Index -6.3 -4.6 -16.3

[Percent Change from Previous Month]:

Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 44

Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes,

from the December 2019 meeting. Red dots indicate median projections.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index

45

Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes,

from the December 2019 meeting. Red dots indicate median projections. Core PCE Price Index

excludes expenditures on gasoline and food services.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

Consumer Price Indexes


MoM % Changes Mar Apr

CPI: All Items -0.4 -0.8

Core CPI -0.1 -0.4

Producer Prices Indexes


All Finished Goods -4.9

Core Finished Goods 1.1

Apr (percent)

Commodity Price Indexes

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Commodity Research Bureau via Haver Analytics 48

Crude Oil Prices

Source: Financial Times via Haver Analytics & Chicago Mercantile Exchange 49

Notes: Spot and Futures Prices are for Brent Crude Oil.

TIPS Inflation Compensation

Source: Federal Reserve Board via Haver Analytics 50

Federal Reserve System Assets


Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding.

Monetary Policy Instruments


Real Federal Funds Rate

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 53

Note: The Real Federal Funds Rate is the difference between the effective Fed Funds rate and the

lagged year-over-year change in the core PCE price index.

FOMC Statement

Source: Board of Governors 54

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby

promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. The

virus and the measures taken to protect public health are inducing sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses.

Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation. The disruptions to economic activity

here and abroad have significantly affected financial conditions and have impaired the flow of credit to U.S. households and

businesses.

The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses

considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to

maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range

until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price

stability goals.

April 29, 2020

Continued…

55

The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including information

related to public health, as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and will use its tools and act as appropriate

to support the economy. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy, the Committee

will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent

inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market

conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, the Federal Reserve will continue to purchase Treasury securities and

agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning,

thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. In addition, the Open Market Desk will

continue to offer large-scale overnight and term repurchase agreement operations. The Committee will closely monitor market

conditions and is prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael

Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.

Eurodollar Futures

Source: CME Group via Bloomberg 56

May 18, 2020

May 11, 2020

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Percent

Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Funds Rate

Source: Board of Governors 57

Note: Each dot in the chart represents the value of an FOMC participant’s judgment of the midpoint of

the appropriate target range (or the appropriate target level) for the federal funds rate at the end of

the calendar year. Projections made for the December 2019 meeting.

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

2019 Longer run

Percent

2020 2021 2022

Monetary Base


M2


Money Market Rates

Source: Board of Governors & Financial Times via Haver Analytics 60

Capital Market Rates

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 61

Treasury Yield Curve


Risk Premium

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 63

Note: Risk Premium is defined as the difference in yields between BofA Merrill Lynch BBB and

10-year Treasury.

National Economic Indicators - Richmond Fed Labor Productivity May-07-2020 08:31 Q1-2020 41 Unit...

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