National Centers forEnvironmental Prediction

“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”

Overview

Dr. Louis W. UccelliniNCEP Director

September 25, 2012

Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.

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Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service

NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products

Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

Space Weather Prediction Center

NCEP Central OperationsClimate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

National Hurricane Center Storm Prediction Center

Aviation Weather Center

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NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

Climate/WeatherLinkage

Week 2 Hazards Assessment

Forecast Uncertainty

Forecast Uncertainty

Minutes

Hours

Days

1 Week

2 Week

Months

Seasons

Years

CPC

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Warnings & Alert Coordination

Watches

Forecasts

Threats Assessments

Guidance

Outlook

Benefits

TPCOPCHPC

SWPCAWCSPC

Service Center Perspective

Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3Tropical Storms to Day 5Severe Weather to Day 8

Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 :

NDFD, Days 4 -7

6-10 Day ForecastM

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Seasonal Predictions

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Three Major Components of Today’s Operational Numerical Prediction Enterprise

• Observations– ~2 billion/day– 99.9% remotely sensed, mostly from

satellites

• Model– Earth System model; coupled– Global resolution (27km)– North American resolution (4km)

• Computer– 2012

• Primary/backup15 minute switchover• 73 trillion calc/sec – IBM Power 6

– 2013• 146 trillion calc/sec – IBM iDataPlex Intel/Linux

GFS MOM4NOAH Sea Ice

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Air Quality

WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF

WRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model

Regional NAMWRF NMM

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane GFDLHWRF

GlobalForecastSystem

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Forecast

Severe Weather

Rapid Refreshfor Aviation

Climate ForecastSystem

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

NOAA’s Model Production Suite

NOAH Land Surface Model

Coupled

Global DataAssimilation

OceansHYCOM

WaveWatch III

NAM/CMAQ

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Regi

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DA

Satellites + Radar99.9%

~2B Obs/Day

NOS – OFS• Great Lakes• Northern

Gulf of Mexico

Bays• Chesapeake• Tampa • Delaware

SpaceWeather

ENLIL

Regi

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DA

EcoForecasting

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Climate/WeatherLinkage

Forecast UncertaintyForecast

Uncertainty

Minutes

Hours

Days

1 Week

2 Week

Months

Seasons

Years

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Climate Forecast System

Fo

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Lea

d T

ime

Fo

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Lea

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Warnings & Alert Coordination

Watches

Forecasts

Threats Assessments

Guidance

Outlook

Benefits

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

Ocean ModelHYCOMWave Watch III

Global Forecast System

North American Forecast

Rapid Update Cycle for AviationDispersion Models for DHS

NCEP Model Perspective

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Hurricane – GFDL, WRF

GLOFS BaysChesapeake, N. GoMTampa, Columbia R, Delaware

Enlil – Space Wx Model

NCEP Model Suite Supports NOAA Ocean and Coastal Missions

• Ensure maritime weather, ocean and sea ice safety– E.g., hazards from winds, waves, currents and their interactions

• Enhance economic benefit for marine transportation– E.g., weather and ocean forecasts based ship routing

• Support response to marine environmental emergencies– E.g., oil spills, Fukushima

• Support Search and Rescue Operations (USCG)

• Support stewardship of ocean, coastal and marine ecosystem resources– E.g., Predict physical boundary conditions, circulations and transports for

Port management, ecological forecasting

• Provide sea ice forecasting for Arctic Ocean– Support Wx/ice safety and SAROPS services

• Improve hurricane forecasting

• Improve extratropical cyclogenesis forecasting – especially oceanic influenced rapid cyclogenesis

Past and Current NCEP-NAVY collaborations

• The HYCOM consortium

• NAVO 1/12 deg. Global HYCOM at NCEP

• North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS – including Canadian, NCEP and FNMOC)

• WAVEWATCH III at FNMOC, NAVO, and NRL

• Hurricane forecast modeling: Collaborations in HFIP

• JCSDA: NCEP-NRL MRY – Co-chairs the ocean working group– Community fast forward Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM)– Altimetry (JASON-1, JASON-2)

• Fukushima response (NCEP-NAVO)– radioactive hazmat tracking

• Navy Global and regional NCOM data services (NCEP-NAVO)– USCG (SAROPS), NGA (Fukushima), ORR (NOAA hazmat), domestic users

• NUOPC-ESPC (HYCOM, WAVEWATCH III, ADCIRC)

• GFS physics in (NOGAPS)

Future NCEP-NAVY collaborations

• NCODA for Global HYCOM at NCEP

• WAVEWATCH III as a community model

• Hurricane forecast modeling: continue collaborations in HFIP

• JCSDA: NCEP-NRL MRY – co-chairs the ocean working group

• Navy Global HYCOM and regional NCOM data services (NCEP-NAVO)– USCG (SAROPS), ORR (NOAA hazmat), domestic users

• NUOPC-ESPC (HYCOM, WAVEWATCH III, ADCIRC)

• Ensembles (NAEFS)

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

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• Four-story, 268,762 square foot building in Riverdale, MD will house 800+ Federal employees, and contractors• 5 NCEP Centers (NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC, CPC)• NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and

Research (STAR)• NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB)• OAR Air Resources Laboratory

• Includes 40 spaces for visiting scientists• Includes 464 seat auditorium/

conference center, library, deli, fitness center and health unit

History of Construction

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• Groundbreaking March 2006• Construction start May 2007• Construction halted December 2008 - NCWCP

construction 80% complete• In May 2009, the developer filed a claim in Federal Court to

recover “damages” from the Government• In June 2009, the developer filed for bankruptcy with the County

Court• The Federal Court dismissed all remaining claims filed by the

developer on February 9, 2011• These actions cleared away all

remaining legal obstacles for the restart of work on the NCWCP project

• Work restarted April 6, 2011

Move Schedule• February 2, 2012 – data center setup began• April 7, 2012 – Building operations transferred to new owner

– Shadow forecasts commenced June 6

• July 30, 2012 – began phased move-in– Front offices– Non-operational groups

• August 2012 – dual operations• August 24, 2012 – move completed• October 15, 2012 – ribbon-cutting

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Appendix