NAROK COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR...

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National Drought Management Authority NAROK COUNTY

DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR DECEMBER 2016

Seasonal Calendar

Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation

Planting/Weeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase

Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept)

Short rains Planting/weeding

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Biophysical Indicators Rainfall: There was Poor rainfall performance in all parts of the

county. The amounts received so far were much less than normal amounts expected in December.

Vegetation condition: The 3 month vegetation condition index (VCI) for the County is 37.61, depicting normal vegetation greenness.

Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: No harvests recorded. Livestock body condition is fair and deteriorating across the

livelihoods, except in Mixed farming areas and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone.

Milk production is improving but is still less than long term means. Livestock migration in search of pasture in Pastoral livelihood

zone is increasing. There were no drought related livestock deaths reports.

Access indicators: Terms of trade were not favorable especially in Pastoral livelihood

zone. Milk consumption was fair. There is an increase in distances to livestock watering points in

Pastoral livelihood zone. Utilization Indicators: The percent Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) showing

children at risk of malnutrition was 7.57, higher than the long term average of 6.6, slightly lower than the previous month of 9.46, indicating an improvement of the situation in the month.

Early Warning (EW) Phase Classification Livelihood Zone Phase Trend

AGRO PASTORAL (Kirindoni, Naroosura, Mosiro and Suswa)

ALERT

IMPROVING

MIXED FARMING (Nairregi-Enkare, and Kilgoris)

NORMAL

STABLE

PASTORAL (Loita, Olmesutie, Ntuka and Elang’ata Enterit)

ALERT

NO CHANGE

LEASING/PASTORAL (Lemek)

ALERT

NO CHANGE

COUNTY ALERT IMPROVING

Biophysical Indicators

Value

Normal Range/Value

Rainfall (% of Normal) 0 >90

SPI-3Month (TAMSAT) - -1.0 to 1.0

VCI-3Month 37.61 >35

Forage condition Poor Fair

Production indicators Value Normal

Crop Condition (Maize) - -

Livestock Body Condition Moderate Normal

Milk Production 473 >500 Litres

Livestock Migration Pattern Not normal Normal

Livestock deaths (from drought) No death No death

Access Indicators Value Normal

Terms of Trade (ToT) 63 >100 Milk Consumption 2 >4 litres

Return distance to water sources

5.23 <5 Km

Cost of water at source (20 litres)

5-15 <5Kshs

Utilization indicators Value Normal

Nutrition Status, MUAC (% at risk of malnutrition)

7.57 <10

Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.8 <2.0

DECEMBER EW PHASE

EWS Bulletin December, 2016 - Narok County

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1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS

1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE There was late onset in the first week of November instead of the expected second

and third week of October. The county recorded 10 rainy days, an increase from four days of the previous

month. The rains were recorded in the first and third dekad of the month. The rains received were below normal at this time of the year.

1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION

Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Current yr(2016) 99 108 61 180 57 22 12 3 37 9 39 29

Ref yr(2011 -15 Mean) 26 34 38.5 63.5 84.5 47.5 26.0 20.5 23 55.75 113.5 109

0

20

406080

100

120

140

160

180200

Rainfall (mm)

Month

2016 Rainfall amount perfomance, Narok town Rainfall Station

The performance of the rains was dismal in terms of quantities and distribution

across all the major livelihood zones. For instance, Narok town rainfall station received about 26% of the normal rains normally received in the month of December as shown in the above chart

Both temporal and spatial distribution of the rains was poor across the livelihood zones. There was a notable rainfall variation between livelihood zones, with both Mixed farming zone and Agro pastoral recording more rainfall amount compared to Pastoral livelihoods.

Mau in Narok North sub-county, Ilkerin in Transmara East, Kilgoris central and Keyian in Transmara West sub-county received some showers as other parts of the county remained dry.

Source= Narok Meteorological department


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2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER

2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION

The vegetation greenness as depicted by the vegetation condition indices (VCI) shows normal vegetation greenness with a value of 37.61. The improvement in the VCI was occasioned by the rains received in the Mixed farming and in parts of the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone.

However, Narok East and Narok South Sub counties had the least VCI indices of 34.2 and 32.81 respectively, depicting a moderate vegetation deficit. Even those Sub Counties with normal vegetation greenness, the actual VCI values are less than the long term means

2.1.2 Pasture

The Pasture situation in Mixed farming zone and some parts of Agro pastoral such as Kirindon in Transmara West and Nkareta in Narok North remained fair. The Pastoral livelihood zone and parts of Agro-pastoral livelihood zones had poor pasture condition especially in Narok East and Narok South sub-counties.

The available pasture is likely to last for two months in Mixed farming Zone, one month in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone and less than a month in the Pastoral livelihood zone.

The quantity and quality of pasture in the pastoral livelihood and parts of the Agro-pastoral was poor due to overgrazing and depressed rains received during the month.

The situation is not normal at this time of the year.


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2.1.3 Browse

The quality and quantity of browse was fair in the Mixed farming zone and some areas of the agro pastoral livelihood and poor to fair in the Pastoral livelihood zone. The available browse is expected to last for two month in Mixed farming whereas in Agro-pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones it is projected to last for less than one month.

The current situation is below normal at this time of the year.


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2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources

The main sources of water for livestock and human consumption in the county were Pans/Dams (33%) and Natural Rivers (39%). Most households relied on Pans and Dams, which were low in volumes. Most boreholes were useful in Narok East, South and West sub-counties.

The quantity and quality of water improved in Mixed farming and few areas in Agro-pastoral livelihoods due to fair recharge. The situation was poor in the pastoral areas as water volumes remained low at sources with more distance and time to access water.

The current water sources are expected to last for two months in both Mixed farming and agro pastoral livelihood zones and a month in the pastoral livelihood.

The main sources of water are normal for such a time of the year.

2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average distance to watering points for households remained at 3.6 km as recorded

last month. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest distance average of 5.5 km while the

shortest distance was recorded in Mixed farming and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones at 2.7 km.

The current distance is still above normal at this time of the year. 2.2.3 Livestock access

The average distance to main water sources from grazing areas slightly reduced to 5.23 km from 5.97 km recorded last month.

- 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

JanFeb

MarchAprMayJuneJulyAugSepOctNovDec

Distance (km)

Month

Jan FebMarc

hApr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Current yr(2016) 2 2.17 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.77 2.9 3.7 4.4 5.97 5.97 5.23

Ref yr(11 - 15 Mean) 5.5 5.7 5.4 5.1 3.3 3.1 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.1 4.6

The graph of distances from grazing areas to main water sources until December

2016 in Narok County

28%

33%

39%

Main Water Sources for Narok December 2016

Natural Rivers

Pans and Dams

Others


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Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest distance at 7.1 km while the shortest distance was recorded in the Mixed farming zone at 3 km. The decrease in distance was attributed by rains received last month in the mixed farming livelihood zones. The Pastoral livelihood zone experienced increase in distances due to supressed rains and the prolonged dry spell.

The current average distance is slightly above normal.


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3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION

3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition

The Cattle body condition was fair in all livelihoods although with a deteriorating trend. The body condition for sheep and goat varied between good and fair.

The deteriorating livestock body condition is attributed to the depleted pasture situation and increasing distances to water points in the Pastoral livelihood zone.

The current livestock body condition is not normal for such time of the year. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases

There were increased reported cases of Sheep and goat Pox outbreaks in Siana Ward, Narok West sub-county and in Mosiro Ward in Narok East. Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) and Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) were reported mostly in the pastoral livelihood zones of the larger Narok.

Vaccination of small stock against Pox with support from NDMA is scheduled to kick off in early January 2017.

3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk production per household per day slightly increased to 2 bottles per

household from 1.8 bottles recorded in the previous month.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Current yr(2016) 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.3 3.8 3.5 3 1.8 1.8 2

Ref yr(11 - 15 Mean) 4.6 4.5 4.1 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.9 4.7 5.0 4.6 4.64 4.7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

750 ml bottles per

household

Month

Average milk production per household , December 2016 , Narok County

(n = 180)

The slight increase in milk production is attributed to regeneration of pasture due to showers received in the Mixed farming zone has compared to the Pastoral zone which recorded low milk production owing to diminishing pasture and increasing distances to water sources.

The quantity of milk produced was below normal at this time of the year.


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3.2 RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops

Most farmers had started planting, particularly in Transmara West and Transmara East sub-counties as short rains had started fairly well in these areas. Even though the rains received in other areas are not likely to produce enough moisture for crop production.

Crops being planted include maize and beans.


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4.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices

The average price for the medium size cattle increased to Kshs 18,900 from Kshs 18,100 of the previous month.

Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Current yr(2016) 15,900 17,600 17,800 17,800 18,000 19,000 21,700 20,000 19,700 18,600 18,100 18,900

Ref yr(13 - 15 Mean) 15,200 16,400 14,500 15,400 15,700 16,600 16,900 16,400 16,100 16,900 16,300 16,200

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Kshs

Month

The graph of cattle prices until December 2016 in Narok County

(n = 180)

The increase in cattle prices is attributed to improved body condition in the Mixed farming and Agro-pastoral livelihood zone.

The highest prices were recorded in mixed farming zones at Kshs 21,500 and the lowest in the Pastoral zones at an average of Kshs 17,200.

The price level was above the normal LTAs for such a time of the year. 4.1.2 Goat Prices

The average price of a medium size two year goat remained at Kshs. 3,000 compared to last month. The current situation is attributed to low supply of goat in the market as was only sold for money to cater for household food commodities.

Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Current yr(2016) 3,560 3,450 3,320 3,370 3,200 3,180 3,300 3,270 3,260 2,900 3,000 3,000

Ref yr(13 - 15 Mean) 3,530 2,900 2,890 3,230 3,350 3,430 3,400 3,400 3,120 3,250 3,190 3,300

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Kshs

Month

The graph of goats prices until December 2016 in Narok County

(n = 180)

There was significant inter-livelihood variation in goat prices as farmers in the Mixed farming zone were selling at Kshs 3,000 compared to that of the pastoral livelihood zone selling at Kshs 3,100.

The average goat price was slightly below normal for such a time of the year.


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4.2 CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize

The average price of Maize per kilogram reduced to Kshs. 47 from Kshs. 50 as recorded last month.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Current yr(2016) 43 40 40 41 41 41 38 43 43 45 50 47

Ref yr(13-15 Mean) 50 50 49 52 51 53 49 47 48 51 53 52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Kshs

Month

The graph of Maize prices until December 2016 in Narok County

(n = 180) The relatively high price of maize is due to diminishing food stocks and low maize

availability in the local markets for sale. The highest prices were recorded in Pastoral livelihood zone at Kshs 60 per kg while the

lowest was recorded in the Mixed farming zone at an average of Kshs 40 per kg. The overall price was however lower than the long-term average for such a time of the

year. 4.2.2 Beans

The average price of Beans per kg increased to Kshs. 88 from Kshs. 85 compared to the previous month.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Current yr(2016) 86 85 81 83 87 85 75 84 84 85 85 88

Ref yr(13 -15Mean) 107 104 106 111 113 111 103 106 107 108 104 106

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Kshs

Month

The graph of beans prices until December 2016 in Narok County

(n = 180)

The Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones recorded a higher average price of Kshs. 100, compared to the mixed farming zone, which recorded a lower price of Kshs.80 per kg. The inter livelihood variation price is attributed to additional costs during transportation owing to poor access to markets due to poor roads network.

The price is below normal for such a time of the year.


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4.3 Livestock Price Ratio/Terms of Trade The Terms of Trade based on the Cereal/Meat price ratio slightly increased to 63 from 60

as recorded in the previous month. Less amount of cereals could be obtained in exchange for meat than the previous month. The situation was occasioned by the high cereal prices against the relatively low goat prices.

The terms of trade was not favourable in the pastoral livelihood zone as it was much lower compared to Mixed farming livelihood zone. The reason is that pastoral areas recorded much higher cereal prices accompanied with relatively lower livestock prices as opposed to the situation in Mixed farming zones.

The cereal/meat price ratio was not normal for such a time of the year.


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5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS

5.1 MILK CONSUMPTION Milk consumption by the households slightly increased to 43% from 40% in the

previous month. Milk was mostly consumed by children in most households since its availability was low and most livestock herd had migrated.

The milk consumption rate was lower than normal. The situation is expected to improve in Mixed farming zones as pasture continues to rejuvenate and distances to water sources tend to decrease due to rainfall onset. For Pastoral livelihood households, they are likely to face a downward trend as rains in those areas are depressed. Increasing distance to water sources and diminishing pasture resources are likely to affect milk consumption negatively.

The situation is not normal at this time of the year.

5.2 HEALTH AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.2.1 Nutrition Status

The percentage of children under five years of age who are at risk of malnutrition as indicated by the Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) decreased to 7.57 from 9.46 of the previous month. The current status is attributed to decreased incidences of fever in children caused by the chilly weather and improved milk consumption compared to the previous month.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Current yr 6.37 7.90 9.35 6.57 5.77 6.10 4.90 8.65 9.75 9.85 9.46 7.57

Ref yr(11-15 Mean) 10.8 11.3 11.2 11.3 9.5 9.48 9.6 9.42 7.4 7.1 6.6 6.6

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

% MUAC

Month

The graph of average MUAC for children (under 5 yrs) unti December 2016 in Narok County

(n = 780)

The Pastoral and the agro-pastoral livelihood zone which recorded the highest average percentage of children at risk of malnutrition at 8.9% compared to Mixed farming livelihood zone which recorded the least percentage of 1.1%. The exceptionally high percent in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral areas can be attributed to low milk consumption rate at household level.

The county’s percentage of children at risk of malnutrition is currently above normal for this time of the year.

5.2.2 Health

No major disease outbreaks were reported during the month apart from cases of fever in children, especially in the Pastoral livelihood zone. A number of areas such as Koyiaki, Mosiro and Ikerin required supplementary nutrient provision at health centres.


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5.3 COPING STRATEGIES The Coping Strategy Index (CSI) remained at 1.8 compared with the previous month.

The stable CSI indicates that households are employing additional coping mechanisms to manage the food security challenges.

In Mixed farming livelihood zones, households traded in cereals and pulses but with less intensity compared to the previous month. Livestock and Livestock products were dominantly used in Pastoral areas, whereas both cereals and livestock products were used in Agro-pastoral livelihood zones.

The dietary diversity was worsening, with households concentrating on cereals more than other food groups. A number of households reduced the number of meals consumed per day from the usual three to two times.

Charcoal burning and casual labour as a means of getting income to purchase food was on increase in Transmara East and Narok East Sub counties and compared to the previous month.

The coping strategies were not normal for such a time of the year.


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6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES (ACTIONS)

6.1 NON-FOOD INTERVENTIONS – The drought rapid assessment exercise was undertaken and recommended a number of

interventions, where the following ones were approved and funded for implementation, which is underway:

Repair and rehabilitation of serviceable boreholes in Narok West, East and South sub-counties (By NDMA, under the DCF).

Vaccination campaign against sheep pox in Narok South and Transmara West. (By NDMA, under the DCF).

Provision of 20,000 Litres capacity plastic water tanks to 8 institutions for community to as well benefit. (By NDMA, under the DCF).

Vaccination campaign against Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and CBPP in various parts of the county. (By Regional Pastoral Livelihood Resilience Project).

6.2 FOOD AID – NOTE THE FOLLOWING No food aid was provided during the month.

7.0 EMERGING ISSUES

7.1 Insecurity/Conflict/Human Displacement

No incidences of insecurity, conflict or human displacement had been reported during the month.

7.2 Migration Cases of livestock movement in search of pasture were still being witnessed in the

Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zone. High concentration of cattle was witnessed in wheat and maize harvested farms in Ololulunga in Narok South Sub County, Mau in Narok North and Ntulele in Narok East sub-county.

The migratory routes have changed and not normal at this time of the year.

7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS The short rains of October-November-December season performed dismally in all

aspects of amounts received, temporal and spatial distribution as well as continuity. This is bound to have adverse effect on livestock and crop productivity as well as affecting water availability.

Even though pasture and browse had regenerated following the onset of the rains, their availability may not last for long due to poor rainfall performance. The Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones are the most affected. The available pastures are expected to last for a maximum of two months. This is likely to complicate livestock migration patterns especially in Pastoral livelihood zone as Pastoralists move around in search of pastures and water.

Poor rainfall distribution and continuity has affected crop production activities. The amounts received could not support crop germination. In areas where crops had germinated, the discontinuity in rains after the initial downpours in November has affected the crops. Prospects of a good harvest are therefore very minimal.


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The forage condition is likely to deteriorate further in pastoral livelihood zone in less than one month and in two months in the Mixed farming livelihood zone. Livestock performance may continue to decline, leading to emaciated body conditions.

Due to low amounts of rains received in the season, recharge of water facilities (both open and underground) was poor. This is likely to result in available waters being depleted faster than it should had the County received normal rains.

8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS Upscaling of campaign against various livestock diseases in areas not being covered by

the ongoing drought contingency funds (DCF) activities.

Provision of subsidy fuel for boreholes that are now heavily depended upon, particularly

in Narok East and Narok West sub-counties.

Surveillance of human and livestock disease outbreaks is necessary.

The Pastoral livelihood zone especially in Narok East and Narok South Sub Counties

require close monitoring in terms of livestock migration and the possibility of outbreak of

resource based conflict due to livestock congestion at watering points and pasture fields.

A number of areas required supplementary nutrient provision to be made available at

health centres.

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