Naea 12-12 (2)
description
Transcript of Naea 12-12 (2)
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MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
Return on Investment
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Pending Home Sales
NAR 11/2012
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October 2011 – October 2012
October 2010 – October 2011
100 = Historically Healthy Level
Pending Home Sales
NAR 11/2012
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Single Family Sales (year-over-year)
NAR 11/2012
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Condo & Co-op Sales (year-over-year)
NAR 11/2012
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$1M+ Home Sales (year-over-year)
NAR 11/2012
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New Home Sales
Calculated Risk 12/1/2012
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New Construction
Calculated Risk 12/1/2012
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Household FormationsAverage Annual Formations in Thousands
Census Bureau 11/2012
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Mortgage Rates – 30 Year Fixed
1/01/2011 Today
Federal Reserve
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30 Year Mortgage Rates
Freddie Mac
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Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale
NAR 11/2012
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S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 11/2012
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S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
S&P Case Shiller 11/2012
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Single Family Prices (year-over-year)
NAR 11/2012
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Condo & Co-op Prices (year-over-year)
NAR 11/2012
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FHFA 3Q HPI Report
FHFA Regional Home Prices (year-over-year)
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FHFA 11/2012
FHFA State Home Prices (year-over-year)
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Impact of Foreclosures on Prices
Clear Capital 11/8/2012
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Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%
24%
NAR 10/2012
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Home Prices in the Short Term
Calculated Risk 12/1/2012
“The monthly Case-Shiller house price indexes will show month-to-month declines soon, probably starting with the October report to be released in late December. The CoreLogic Index has already started to decline on a month-to-month basis. This is not a sign of impending doom or another collapse in house prices - it is just the normal seasonal pattern.”
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Home Prices in the Short Term
“We project a small, short-term price decline for many markets that recently experienced double-digit appreciation.”
David Stiff, Chief Economist of Fiserv
Fiserv 11/28/2012
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PROJECTED
Home Prices in the Short Term
S&P Case Shiller 11/2012
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Cost vs. Price
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“Like a neighborhood cop on the beat, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) supervises banks, credit unions, and other financial companies, and we will enforce Federal consumer financial laws.”
‘CFPB’
CFPB Website
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The ‘Perfect Storm’ of Regulation
US News & World Report 11/7/2012
The Qualified Mortgage (QM) rule - part of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act - gives a borrower the right to sue if they received a loan that courts deemed the borrower did not have the ability to repay.
The Qualified Residential Mortgage (QRM) requires lenders to keep a 5 percent capital cushion on certain loans they make so that if a loan goes belly up, a lender has some skin in the game, too.
Basel III will mandate how much capital banks have to keep on hand for all their mortgage-related business.
All the uncertainty surrounding the ultimate form these important regulations will take has kept banks hesitant to lend.
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FHA Mortgages
CNBC11/16/2012
“There are concerns that impending new rules in the mortgage market, dictated by Dodd-Frank financial reform, will make the overall loan market more expensive and drive more borrowers to the FHA.”
Diana Olick
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“The FHA is now facing billions of dollars of losses on loans originated between 2007 and 2009. To help bolster its finances, the agency recently announced a series of measures including higher annual insurance premiums and a change to rules that allowed insurance premiums to lapse. Typical borrowers have to pay an up-front insurance premium of 1.75% of the loan amount and, starting in 2013, a higher annual premium of 1.35% of the balance, up from 1.25%, says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at HSH.com.”
Wall Street Journal 11/24/2012
FHA Mortgages
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Impact of New Regulations
American Forum 10/2012
“We find using conservative economic assumptions that the bottom line effects of proposed Dodd-Frank and Basel III regulations may include up to 20 percent fewer loans, resulting in
600,000 fewer home sales.”
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QualifiedResidentialMortgage.org 11/2012
“Borrowers who fail to meet the basic criteria for a qualified residential mortgage will have a harder time finding a loan, when compared to borrowers who do meet those criteria. They might end up paying a higher interest rate, as well…Financial analysts from J.P. Morgan Securities have estimated that borrowers might pay up to three percentage points more for loans that are subject to risk-retention.*”
*loans that don’t meet the definition of a qualified residential mortgage
Impact of New Regulations
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Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
3,4,5,6Pending Home Sales, Single Family Sales, Condo & Co-op Sales, $1M+ Home Sales
http://www.realtor.org
8,9 New Home Sales, New Construction www.calculatedriskblog.com
10 Older Households More Likely to OwnPAID SUBSCRIPTION - http://www.economy.com/dismal/pro/article.asp?cid=235444
11 Household Formations http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204707104578095223920995426.html
12 Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
14 Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale http://www.realtor.org
15 S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices Indiceshttp://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&blobcol=urldocumentfile&blobtable=SPComSecureDocument&blobheadervalue2=inline%3B+filename%3Ddownload.pdf&blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&blobheadervalue1=application%2Fpdf&blobkey=id&blobheadername1=content-type&blobwhere=1245342717782&blobheadervalue3=abinary%3B+charset%3DUTF-8&blobnocache=true
17 Single Family Prices www.realtor.org
18 Condo & Co-Op Prices www.realtor.org
20 FHFA State Home Prices http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/24216/q22012hpi.pdf
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Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
21 Impact on Foreclosures on Prices http://www.clearcapital.com/company/MarketReport.cfm?month=November&year=2012
22 Percentage of Distressed Property Sales http://www.realtor.org
23 Home Prices in the Short Term www.calculatedriskblog.com
24 Home Prices in the Short Term http://investors.fiserv.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=723656
25 Home Prices in the Short Termhttp://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----
27 CFPB http://www.consumerfinance.gov
28 The ‘Perfect Storm’ of Regulationhttp://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/home-front/2012/11/07/5-housing-issues-hanging-in-the-balance-going-into-obamas-2nd-term
29 FHA Mortgages http://www.cnbc.com/id/49856477/To_Stem_Losses_FHA_Mortgages_Get_More_Expensive
30 FHA Mortgages http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323353204578128810214676692.html
31 Impact of New Regulations http://americanactionforum.org/sites/default/files/Regulation_and_Housing.pdf
32 Impact of New Regulations http://www.qualifiedresidentialmortgage.org/criteria.php
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You get to decide.
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