What this webinar is about…What this webinar is about…

events.KeepingCurrentMatters.com/webinars/facebook/recording

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Pending Home Sales

NAR 1/2013

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

December 2011 – December 2012

December 2011 – December 2012

100 = Historically Healthy Level

Pending Home Sales

NAR 1/2013

Single Family Sales (year-over-year)

NAR 2/2013

NORTHEAST+2.8%

MIDWEST+9.7%

WEST+1.2%

SOUTH+7.5%

U.S. AVERAGE+5.8%

Condo & Co-op Sales (year-over-year)

NAR 2/2013

U.S. AVERAGE+15.4%

NORTHEAST+12.5%

WESTNo Change

MIDWEST+25%

SOUTH+25%

$1M+ Home Sales (year-over-year)

NAR 2/2013

NORTHEAST+71.3%

MIDWEST+48.0%

WEST+66.7%

U.S. AVERAGE+62.3%

SOUTH+47.4%

Hottest Months for Online Housing by State

Trulia 1/2013

Peak Month for Search Traffic, Relative to State’s Annual Average

Return on Investment

MSN Money.com, Case Shiller

January 2000 – February 2013

3.25

3.5

3.75

4

4.25

4.5

4.75

5

5.25

Mortgage Rates – 30 year fixed

Freddie Mac 2/1/2013

11/1/2011 – 2/1/2013

“After reaching record lows in 2012, mortgage rates are expected to creep up slowly in 2013, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicted.”

Mortgage Rates Moving Forward

4.4

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

2013 4Q

Projected 30 Year

Mortgage Rate

MarketWatch 10/24/2012

3.3

3.35

3.4

3.45

3.5

3.55

Mortgage Rates Mortgage Rates - 30 year fixed30 year fixed

Freddie Mac 2/1/2013

12/01/2012 – 2/1/2013

Quality Residential Mortgage - QRM

1.) A Product-Type qualified residential mortgage is a first-lien mortgagethat is for an owner-occupant with fully documented income, fully amortizingwith a maturity that does not exceed 30 years and, in the case of adjustable rate-mortgages (ARMs), has an interest rate reset limit of 2 percent annuallyand a limit of 6 percent over the life of the loan.

2.) A PTI/DTI qualified residential mortgage has a borrower’s ratio ofmonthly housing debt to monthly gross income that does not exceed 28percent and a borrower’s total monthly debt to monthly gross income thatdoes not exceed 36 percent.

3.) An LTV ratio qualified residential mortgage must meet a minimum LTV ratio that varies according to the purpose for which the mortgage wasoriginated. For home purchase mortgages the LTV ratio is 80 percent.

4.) A FICO qualified residential mortgage has a borrower’s FICO scoregreater than or equal to 690 at the origination of the loan.

Mortgage Market Note #11-02 3/31/2011

“The six regulators drafting the separate QRM rule, including the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Securities and Exchange Commission, must decide whether to include such a requirement — and whether to make it less than the 20 percent they originally proposed.”

QRM & the 20% Down Payment

Bloomberg 01/18/2013

Months Market Pricing

1- 4 Sellers Appreciation

5 - 6 Even The Norm

7+ Buyers Depreciation

Months Supply & Impact on Price

Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

NAR 1/2013

5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

S&P Case Shiller 1/2013

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

-3.9%-3.5%

-2.5%

-1.7%

-0.5%

0.6%1.1%

2.0%

3.6%

4.3%

5.5%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Year-over-Year Change in Prices

Jan Feb Mar Apr May

S&P Case Shiller 1/2013

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price IndicesS&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

S&P Case Shiller 1/2013

Metropolitan Area Year-over-Year

Atlanta 7.6%

Boston 2.3%

Charlotte 5.1%

Chicago 0.8%

Cleveland 1.8%

Dallas 5.7%

Denver 7.8%

Detroit 11.9%

Las Vegas 10.0%

Los Angeles 7.7%

Metropolitan Area Year-over-Year

Miami 9.9%

Minneapolis 11.1%

New York -1.2

Phoenix 22.8%

Portland 6.7%

San Diego 8.0%

San Francisco 12.7%

Seattle 7.4%

Tampa 6.8%

Washington 4.4%

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price IndicesS&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

S&P Case Shiller 1/2013

Metropolitan Area M-o-M

Atlanta 0.1

Boston -0.9

Charlotte -0.3

Chicago -1.3

Cleveland -0.8

Dallas -0.1

Denver 0.4

Detroit -0.3

Las Vegas 0.4

Los Angeles 0.4

Metropolitan Area M-o-M

Miami 0.8

Minneapolis 1.0

New York -1.1

Phoenix 1.4

Portland -0.2

San Diego 0.9

San Francisco 1.4

Seattle 0.5

Tampa -0.2

Washington -0.6

Home Prices in the Short Term

130.00

135.00

140.00

145.00

150.00

May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 PROJECTED

S&P Case Shiller 1/2013

20%

25%

30%

35%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Percentage of Distressed Property Sales

35%

24%

NAR 1/2013

532.8717.5

1,285.9

2,330.5

2,824.7 2,871.9

1,887.8 1,836.6

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

U.S. Properties with Foreclosure Filings

in thousands

Realty Trac 1/2013

6%

27%

37%

15%

7%

3% 3% 1% 1%

< $50K

$50-100K

$100-200K

$200-300K

$300-400K

$400-500K

$500-750K

$750K-$1M

>$1M

Percentage of Foreclosures by Price PointPercentage of Foreclosures by Price Point

Realty Trac 1/2013

Two graphs that show the distressed property challenge is moving to different parts of the country.

Moody’s Analytics 1/2013

“The Northeast is much more likely to see no price growth at all than anything close to the 5 percent national average this year, the analytics firm stated in a recent outlook. Northeastern states have relatively long foreclosure timelines, and their rate of foreclosure as of the third quarter of last year was 5.6%.This compares to just 2.7% in the West.”

Capital Economics

DSNews 01/31/2013

113

347

853

1,089

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Texas California Florida New York

Average Days to Foreclosure – 4Q 2012

Realty Trac 1/2013

Resources

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

5,6,7,8,9

Pending Home Sales, Single Family Sales, Condo & Co-Op Sales, $1M+ Home Sales

http://www.realtor.org

12,14 Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

13 Mortgage Rates Moving Forward http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-will-rise-next-year-but-slowly-2012-10-24

15 Quality Residential Mortgage - QRM http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/20686/QRM_FINAL_ALL.pdf

16 QRM & the 20% Down Paymenthttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-18/housing-industry-awaits-down-payment-rule-for-mortgages.html

18 Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale http://www.realtor.org

19, 21, 22, 23

S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indices, Home Prices in the Short Term

http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/articles/en/us/?articleType=PDF&assetID=1245346789036

24 Percentage of Distressed Property Sales http://www.realtor.org

25, 26U.S. Properties with Foreclosure Filings, Percentage of Foreclosures by Price Point

http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/2012-year-end-foreclosure-market-report-7547

27 Two Graphs PAID SERVICE http://www.economy.com/dismal/pro/article.asp?cid=236942

28 Capital Economicshttp://www.dsnews.com/articles/home-price-expectations-vastly-different-for-northeast-vs-west-2013-01-31

Resources

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

29 Average Days to Foreclosure – 4Q 2012http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/2012-year-end-foreclosure-market-report-7547

30 Building Trust is Most Important http://media.ford.com/images/10031/fordtrendbook2013.pdf

“Weary of mis information, people are reappraising their relationships with companies and brands, making integrity a new form of competitive advantage…

More important than ever to building brand equity and differentiation, trust has become a precious commodity, and its limited supply in the marketplace has stimulated consumer demand.”

Building Trust is Most Important