Mylovanov may2014
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Transcript of Mylovanov may2014
Comments on Decentralization Reform in
Ukraine
Tymofiy Mylovanov
May 30, 2014
1
Some Background: Conflict in
Ukraine
2
3
The number of protests monthly
October 2009 – December 2013
4
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200O
ct'0
9
De
c'0
9
Fe
b'1
0
Ap
r'1
0
Jun
'10
Au
g'1
0
Oct
'10
De
c'1
0
Fe
b'1
1
Ap
r'1
1
Jun
'11
Au
g'1
1
Oct
'11
De
c'1
1
Fe
b'1
2
Ap
r'1
2
Jun
'12
Au
g'1
2
Oct
'12
De
c'1
2
Fe
b'1
3
Ap
r'1
3
Jun
'13
Au
g'1
3
Oct
'13
De
c'1
3
4
Protest issues
11
2011 2012 2013
2013 before
Maidan (until
20.11)
2013 after
Maidan (from
21.11)
Socioeconomic 1374 60% 1546 43% 2062 43% 1926 56% 136 10%
Ideological 558 25% 858 24% 1740 36% 871 25% 869 62%
Political 564 25% 1249 34% 1727 36% 924 27% 803 58%
Civic rights 391 17% 617 17% 1644 34% 926 27% 718 52%
2277 3636 4822 3428 1394
5
Regional distribution of protests
7
2010 2011 2012 2013
2013 before
Maidan
(until 20.11)
2013 after
Maidan
(from 21.11)
Centre 389 17% 480 21% 633 17% 929 19% 637 19% 292 21%
Crimea 170 7% 160 7% 199 5% 211 4% 161 5% 50 4%
East 503 22% 573 25% 696 19% 903 19% 683 20% 220 16%
Kyiv 422 18% 406 18% 638 18% 805 17% 582 17% 223 16%
South 284 12% 225 10% 597 16% 774 16% 621 18% 153 11%
West 534 23% 430 19% 867 24% 1187 25% 735 21% 452 33%
Total 2302* 100% 2274 100% 3630 100% 4809 100% 3419 100% 1390 100%
* The “nationwide” events (i.e., those that were impossible to locate in a particular settlement) are not included in the
regional distribution
6
The number of protests per 1 million of
de facto population in regions
8
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010 2011 2012 2013
Center
Crimea
East
Kyiv
South
West
Ukraine
7
A Flaw in Unkrainian Constitution?
8
9
10
Renewal / Selection of politicians
• Myerson (2006) - ex-post selection
• Bernheim and Kartik (2010) - ex-ante selection
11
Decentralization initiative
12
Decentralization
• Government decentralization reform
• Academic decentralization initiative, February 24
– call for academic input
– Roger Myerson and Daron Acemoglu, Gerard Roland, Daniel
Treisman, Sergei Guriev, Paul Rodrik Grergory
– signed by more than 100 academics
13
Benefits of decentralization
14
Benefits of decentralization
• better local economic decisions
• counterintuitively, lower stakes in secession
• selection and training of national-level politicians
15
Focal issue
• Decentralization as means of preventing dictatorship
• Solution to the problem of non-existing institutions
16
Risks of decentralization
17
Risks
• Recentralization
• Capture of regions
• Corruption
• Secession pressure / ethnic or regional conflict
• Strengthening regional parties
18
Challenges
19
Recentralization
• Article 118 of the proposed constitution deals with decen-
tralization
– extremely vague
– keeps state administrations and creates local executive
councils
– details to worked out by law
• Financial resources?
20
Legitimacy
• The process is as important as substance of the reform
– The reform will not be backrolled only if it is understood
and protected by public
– Lower level politicial leaders, with ability to mobilize sup-
port, should feel ownership over the reform
– Convention and endorsements
21
Thank you!
22
Evidence?
23
Corruption
• ok if free press (Leesman and Markwardt 2009)
• not ok if more complex governing structure (Fan, Lin, and
Treisman 2009)
• Ukraine benchmark?
24
Safeguards against recentralization
• federalization provides a protective barrier (Inman 2008)
25
Strong national parties
• strong national parties are the key for
– smaller interregional conflict (Brancati 2006)
– better local public goods (Enikolopov and Zhuravskaya
2007)
• Ukraine - party of regions?
26
Decentralization as conflict mitgation strategy
• ethno-federalis works ok (Charron 2009)
• regional level inequality leads to civil conflict (Deiwiks, Ced-
erman, and Gleditsch 2012)
• armed clientilism (Eaton 2006)
• depends on what kind of decentralization (Siegle and O’Mahony
2010)
– increased support of local leaders, local expenditure, and
employment - good
– higher local taxes and higher local bureaucracies - bad
27