Myanmar in 2009- A New Political Era

8102019 Myanmar in 2009- A New Political Era

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Myanmar in 2009 A New Political EraAuthor(s) Donald M SeekinsSource Asian Survey Vol 50 No 1 (JanuaryFebruary 2010) pp 195-202Published by University of California Press

Stable URL httpwwwjstororgstable101525as2010501195

Accessed 30112013 0521

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Asian Survey Vol 983093983088 Number 983089 pp 983089983097983093ndash983090983088983090 ISSN 983088983088983088983092-983092983094983096983095 electronic ISSN 983089983093983091983091-983096983091983096X copy 983090983088983089983088

by the Regents of the University of California All rights reserved Please direct all requests for permis-

sion to photocopy or reproduce article content through the University of California Pressrsquos Rights

and Permissions website httpwwwucpressjournalscomreprintInfoasp DOI AS983090983088983089983088983093983088983089983089983097983093

195

DONALD M SEEKINS

Myanmar in 2009

A New Political Era

ABSTRACT

The appearance of an unwanted visitor in Aung San Suu Kyirsquos lakeside compound in

Yangon gave the SPDC military regime a pretext to extend her house arrest while

the refusal of major armed groups in the border areas to accept subordination under

the Tatmadaw (armed forces) central command posed serious problems for Myanmarrsquos

future stability

KEYWORDS Aung San Suu Kyi unwanted visitor James Webb 2010 general elec-tion border areas

M983161983137983150983149983137983154 983145983150 983090983088983088983097 983159983145983156983150983141983155983155983141983140 nothing comparable to the Buddhist

monk-led ldquoSaffron Revolutionrdquo of September 983090983088983088983095 or Cyclone Nargis which

devastated the Irrawaddy Delta and caused 983089983092983088983088983088983088 fatalities in May 983090983088983088983096

For the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) the most

challenging issue was the unraveling of ceasefires between the junta and eth-

nic armed groups in the border areas on the eve of the 983090983088983089983088 general election

a crisis long in the making As 983090983088983088983097 drew to a close the SPDC faced two

major questions (983089) can it stage-manage the election as efficiently as it did

the May 983090983088983088983096 constitutional referendum held in Nargisrsquos aftermath and (983090)

will instability on the bordermdashpossibly escalating into large-scale fightingmdash

derail progress toward the councilrsquos goal of ldquodisciplined democracyrdquo

AN UNWELCOME VIS ITOR

On May 983089983092 983090983088983088983097 Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was arrested and detained at In-

sein Jail north of Yangon (Rangoon) on charges that she had violated the

terms of her house arrest by allowing a 983093983091-year-old American John William

D983151983150983137983148983140 M S983141983141983147983145983150983155 is Professor of Southeast Asian Studies at Meio University in Nago Okinawa

Japan Email kenchanii-okinawanejp

AS5001_18_Myanmar-Seekinsindd 195 21210 211 PM




196 bull ASIAN SURVEY 501

Yettaw to enter and stay at her residence on the shores of Yangonrsquos Inya Lake

during May 983091ndash983093 Te offense carried a maximum sentence of five years in

prison According to her defense lawyer she refrained from having the un-

welcome visitor thrown out because he was ill and exhausted On August 983089983089

she was sentenced to three years in prison with hard labor but a ldquospecial

orderrdquo from SPDC Chairman Senior General Tan Shwe reduced this to 983089983096

months of house arrest Yettaw was given a seven-year sentence

Tis bizarre incident left many unanswered questions Te devoutly reli-

gious but psychologically troubled Yettaw claimed he had seen a vision from

God that Daw Suu Kyi would be the target of assassination and wanted to

warn her But how did he get past the tight security cordon enveloping hercompound at 983093983092 University Avenue not only in May but on November 983091983088

of the previous year when he made his first visit and gave religious literature

and a letter for Suu Kyi to her housekeepers Why did the Myanmar em-

bassy in Bangkok grant him a visa after this 983090983088983088983096 visit which Daw Suu Kyi

had reported to the authorities through her personal physician1

Te SPDC might have ordered security personnel to let him in because

they wished to embarrass the pro-democracy leader and highlight her alleged

connections with sinister foreign forces Tis view was supported by Yettawrsquosown account of the incident ldquoI donrsquot know why they [security guards] didnrsquot

stop me Te man with the AK-983092983095 [rifle] shook my hand and let me inrdquo2

Equally mysterious is Yettawrsquos claim that he a diabetic in very poor physical

condition was able to swim back and forth across the deep and muddy wa-

ters of Inya Lake to her house wearing crudely improvised flippers He re-

portedly also carried heavy items including two black chadors (customarily

worn by conservative Muslim women) that supposedly Daw Suu Kyi could

use in attempting an escape from impending assassination3 Her conviction

by the court aroused a storm of international criticism but it achieved the

useful objective for the SPDC of keeping her isolated until the general elec-

tion planned for 983090983088983089983088 is completed

983089 ony Dokoupil ldquoTe lsquoLadyrsquo and the ramp Te Missouri Misfit Who Helped Bring Down

Burmarsquos Futurerdquo Newsweek June 983090983090 983090983088983088983097 at ltwwwburmanetorggt accessed 983088983094-983090983092-983090983088983088983097

983090 ldquoYettaw Says Guards Let Him Enter Suu Kyi Compoundrdquo Irrawaddy online August 983090983090

983090983088983088983097 at ltwwwirrawaddyorggt accessed 983088983096-983090983092-983090983088983088983097 Yettaw may have been ldquoset uprdquo by SPDCagents posing as dissidents in Tailand where he stayed before entering Burma

983091 David Paquette ldquoIs Yettaw a riathleterdquo ibid May 983090983096 983090983088983088983097 at ibid accessed 983088983093-983091983088-983090983088983088983097

However Yettaw testified at his trial that he walked not swam to Daw Suu Kyirsquos residence Yeni

ldquoConfusing estimony Conflicting Reports Emerge from Yettaw rialrdquo ibid





SEEKINS MYANMAR IN 2009 bull 197

A WELCOME VIS ITOR

Within days of Daw Suu Kyirsquos conviction in mid-August James Webb a

Democratic senator from the US state of Virginia who is a vocal critic ofUS sanctions on Myanmar and chairs the East Asia and Pacific Affairs Sub-

committee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee arrived in Myanmar

He met with Tan Shwe in the new capital Naypyidaw Te same day he

flew back to Yangon and met briefly with Daw Suu Kyi at a state guesthouse

a privilege that the SPDC denied to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon

during his visit to the country in early July Released for ldquohumanitarian rea-

sonsrdquo Yettaw accompanied Webb on his flight out of Yangon to Bangkok

and returned home to be reunited with his bewildered family4

Te Bush administration had condemned the SPDC as an ldquooutpost of

tyrannyrdquo and imposed tough new economic sanctions after the May 983091983088

983090983088983088983091 Black Friday incident an attack in Upper Burma by pro-regime thugs

on Daw Suu Kyi and her supporters Te new Obama administration is at-

tempting a more nuanced and pragmatic approach During a February 983090983088983088983097

visit to Asia Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced a review of Wash-

ingtonrsquos policy toward Myanmar acknowledging that the sanctions imposedon the SPDC by the US government over the years had failed to promote

democratic change In statements made later in the year she said US policy

would retain sanctions but also promote engagement with the regime5

However Clinton also expressed concern at a July meeting of the Associa-

tion of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that growing military cooperation

between Myanmar and North Korea posed a serious security risk Te SPDC

has relied increasingly on Pyongyang for arms expertise in the construction

of underground fortifications (especially around Naypyidaw) and much-rumored assistance in developing a nuclear capacity which might be used to

produce weapons6 In June a US Navy destroyer shadowed a North Korean

983092 Grant Peck ldquoUS Senatorrsquos Visit Could Herald a New Myanmar Policyrdquo Associated Press

August 983089983097 983090983088983088983097 at ltwwwburmanetorggt accessed 983088983096-983090983090-983090983088983088983097

983093 Daw Suu Kyi said in September that she would support lifting of sanctions on Myanmar by

the US and other Western countries if dialogue included the opposition as well as the regime

ldquoMyanmarrsquos Suu Kyi Gives Backing to US Engagementrdquo New York Times online September 983090983093

983090983088983088983097 at ltwwwnytimescomgt accessed 983088983097-983090983094-983090983088983088983097983094 According to one article evidence from Burmese defectors and satellite photographs indicates

that Myanmar may already have a secret nuclear facility built with North Korean assistance and ldquoa

nuclear-armed Burma is a genuine possibilityrdquo See ldquoBurmarsquos Nuclear Secretsrdquo Sydney Morning Her-

ald August 983089 983090983088983088983097 at ltwwwsmhcomaugt accessed 983088983096-983088983094-983090983088983088983097






cargo ship the Kang Nam 983089 suspected of carrying a shipment of arms to a

port south of Yangon the ship turned back before reaching its presumed

destination or being stopped and boarded by the naval vessel

During his talk with Daw Suu Kyi in August Senator Webb suggested that

Chinarsquos rapidly growing economic and military power constitutes a threat to

her countryrsquos independence Diplomatically she replied that ldquowe will not deal

with anyone with fear and insecurity As we canrsquot choose our neighbors we

understand that we need to have a good relationship with Chinardquo7

Webb and other opponents of sanctions have argued that their imposition

by Western states following the establishment of the State Law and Order

Restoration Council (SLORC predecessor of the SPDC) in September 983089983097983096983096has driven the countryrsquos leaders unwillingly into Chinarsquos arms Relations be-

tween the two countries have historically been problematic (especially Bei-

jingrsquos support for the Communist Party of Burma [CPB] insurgency along

the Shan State-Yunnan border during the Ne Win era) But post-983089983097983096983096 ties

have provided the Myanmar and Chinese regimes with two things they

crave stability and predictability Beijingrsquos economic support and no-ques-

tions-asked attitude concerning its neighborrsquos human rights and political

problems and Myanmarrsquos role as a reliable source of natural resources (teakgemstones natural gas) fueling Chinarsquos economic growth have created a

uniquely symbiotic relationship Tis has been enhanced by the ceasefire

framework between most of the major ethnic armed groups and the central

government thatmdashuntil 983090983088983088983097mdashstabilized the Burma-China border area and

opened it up to considerable cross-border trade

Active engagement by Washington might increase its influence in Naypy-

idaw but it would not constitute an effective ldquocontainmentrdquo of Chinese in-

fluence Daw Suu Kyirsquos comment to Webb suggests that she believes some-

thing like Finlandrsquos relationship with the Soviet Union preserving that small

countryrsquos independence and neutrality in proximity to a huge and powerful

neighbor is a better model for Myanmar than ldquodemocraticrdquo Georgiarsquos rela-

tions with Vladimir Putinrsquos Russia a point of view Tan Shwe probably

shares

A major step in the integration of Myanmar into a China-centered re-

gional economy was the beginning of construction in late 983090983088983088983097 on two

983095 U Win in ldquoAn lsquoElectionrsquo Burmarsquos People Donrsquot NeedrdquoWashington Post September 983097 983090983088983088983097

at ltwwwwashingtonpostcomgt accessed 983089983088-983089983095-983090983088983088983097






pipelines Tese will carry oil imported from the Middle East and Africa and

natural gas from off-shore wells in the Bay of Bengal from Kyaukpyu Port in

Myanmarrsquos Arakan State through central Myanmar to Kunming capital of

Chinarsquos Yunnan Province When the pipelines are completed in 983090983088983089983090 China

will obtain enhanced energy security (oil imports will not have to pass

through the sensitive Straits of Malacca) and the Myanmar army-state will

benefit from a new source of revenue from energy exports8

THE 2010 GENERAL ELECTION

Preparations for holding a 983090983088983089983088 general election were ongoing in 983090983088983088983097 withindividuals from a variety of backgrounds expressing their intention to form

parties and participate in the vote If it is completed successfully the election

will be marked by the disbanding of the SPDC martial law regime and its

replacement by a military-controlled civilian government whose structure is

defined by the 983090983088983088983096 Constitution

Post-SPDC political aspirants include a coalition of 983089983088 embryonic politi-

cal parties known as the Tird Force or the National Politics Alliance League

Among them are former parliamentarians from Suu Kyirsquos National Leaguefor Democracy (NLD) elected in May 983089983097983097983088 known as the ldquoG-983095rdquo (Group of

Seven) Tey broke with the mainstream NLD because of their participation

in the regime-organized National Convention which held protracted discus-

sions on the basic principles of the new Constitution In September 983090983088983088983097

Mya Tan Tan Nu (daughter of former Prime Minister U Nu) and two

daughters of other leading parliamentary-era politicians declared the estab-

lishment of the Democratic Party9 In Kachin State Manam u Ja a promi-

nent former member of the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) set

up the Kachin State Progressive Party with the promise to represent all of his

statersquos diverse peoples10 Te National Unity Party (the post-983089983097983096983096 incarnation

of the Ne Win-era Burma Socialist Program Party) is also expected to

participate

983096 Wai Moe ldquoChina-Burma Pipeline Work to Start in Septemberrdquo Irrawaddy online June 983089983094

983090983088983088983097 at ltwwwirrawaddyorggt accessed 983088983094-983089983094-983090983088983088983097

983097 Nem Davies ldquoen Party Alliance Drafts Electoral Policyrdquo Mizzima News September 983089 983090983088983088983097at ltwwwmizzimacomgt accessed 983088983097-983088983090-983090983088983088983097 Wai Moe ldquoJuntarsquos 983090983088983089983088 Election Loading the Dicerdquo

Irrawaddy online September 983090983092 983090983088983088983097 at ltwwwirrawaddyorggt accessed 983088983097-983090983092-983090983088983088983097

983089983088 Myint Shwe ldquoIn Search of Democracy Kachin Leader Engages JuntardquoBangkok Post Octo-

ber 983089983096 983090983088983088983097 at ltwwwbangkokpostcomgt accessed 983089983088-983089983096-983090983088983088983097






Few observers doubt that the SPDCrsquos grassroots national organization

the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) which has

over 983090983088 million members ample funding and a close connection with the

senior general would win the most legislative seats in the upcoming elec-

tion after forming one or more major political parties According to a Yan-

gon informant the USDA will oblige its millions of members to turn their

marked ballots over to its cadres rather than going to vote at polling sta-

tions telling them that it is ldquotheir dutyrdquo to choose USDA candidates

Moreover the SPDC in September 983090983088983088983097 chose 983091983088983088 military personnel as

candidates of the National Politics Party described by e Irrawaddy news

magazine as a ldquoproxy party for the militaryrdquo11

Details are unclear but thesepersons will probably fill the 983090983093983077 of national legislative seats allocated to the

military

Te scheduled election leaves the NLD in a difficult position participa-

tion would constitute an admission that its May 983089983097983097983088 election victory is

politically irrelevant while a boycott might leave it permanently on the

sidelines In April 983090983088983088983097 983089983093983088 NLD delegates from all parts of the country

met at the partyrsquos headquarters in Yangon and laid down conditions for

participation including release of all 983090983089983088983088 political prisoners and a reviewof the new Constitution12 Te impossibility of these concessions being

granted led U Win in a veteran journalist dissident and political pris-

oner who helped establish the NLD in 983089983097983096983096 to describe the election as a

ldquoshamrdquo In a September 983097 983090983088983088983097 piece for the Washington Post U Win in

wrote ldquoWe will not be cowed or coerced into participating in a fatally

flawed political process rdquo13

Many Burmese seem to share this skepticism As one local observer said

ldquoPoliticians are like actors and actresses on the stage Once the orchestra

begins to play they will start to dancerdquo But the music will not begin until

the SPDC decrees new election and political party laws which had not oc-

curred by the end of 983090983088983088983097 Tis may reflect the juntarsquos determination to give

the new parties very little time to organize and campaign while the USDA

and others close to the SPDC enjoy privileged access to information on the

983089983089 ldquoJunta Announces Selection of Proxy Candidatesrdquo Irrawaddy online September 983089983094 983090983088983088983097 atltwwwirrawaddyorggt accessed 983088983097-983089983094-983090983088983088983097

983089983090 Marwaan Macan-Markar ldquoMyanmar Opposition Weighs Optionsrdquo Asia Times online at

ltwwwatimescomgt accessed 983088983093-983088983094-983090983088983088983097

983089983091 U Win in ldquoAn lsquoElectionrsquo Burmarsquos People Donrsquot Needrdquo






content of the new laws14 New parties that displease the junta could be

subject to ldquode-registrationrdquo on legal technicalities as occurred in the run-up

to the May 983090983095 983089983097983097983088 general election

CRISIS IN THE BORDER AREAS

Article 983091983091983096 of the new Constitution states that ldquo[a]ll the armed forces in the

Union [of Myanmar] shall be under the command of the Defense Servicesrdquo

a provision of pivotal importance Te provision also presents the SPDC

with its biggest challenge getting ethnic armed groups that since 983089983097983096983097 have

signed ceasefires with the central government to surrender their autonomyand submit to top-down control from atmadaw (armed forces) headquar-

ters in Naypyidaw

While the existence of private armies is an intolerable situation for any

nation-state the SPDCrsquos Border Guard Force (BGF) proposal unveiled in

April 983090983088983088983097 has received a lukewarm if not hostile reception from the prin-

cipal armed groups Under this scheme the ethnic forces would be reorga-

nized into battalions each of which would have three commanders of major

rank one of them being seconded from the regular ranks of the atmadawOther commissioned and non-commissioned officers would be brought in

from the regular army which would also pay the BGF rank and file their

salaries Only the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army and a couple of smaller

armed groups have accepted this reorganization Te largest and most pow-

erful of the 983089983095 ceasefire groups including the 983090983088983088983088983088-strong United Wa State

Army (UWSA) and the 983092983088983088983088-soldier Kachin Independence Army (KIA)

expressed unhappiness with a plan that would fall far short of the genuine

federal autonomy they wish to see enshrined in the new political order

In late August atmadaw troops seized and occupied Laogai headquar-

ters of the Kokang ceasefire group in northeastern Shan State formally

known as the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA)

Tis is a relatively small group targeted by the SPDC because of the grouprsquos

internal divisions and reputation for drug dealing Its leader Pheung Kya-

shin (Peng Jiasheng) fled to China followed by as many as 983091983095983088983088983088 Kokang

983089983092 Soon after the SLORC junta seized power in September 983089983097983096983096 it decreed a Political Party

Registration Law and in February 983089983097983096983097 a Pyithu Hluttaw (Peoplersquos Assembly) Election Law Te

existence of this legal framework long before the actual May 983089983097983097983088 election gave parties time to or-

ganize and establish nationwide branches which was especially true of the NLD






refugees Resistance to government forces occupying Laogai included not

only soldiers loyal to Pheungrsquos MNDAA but troops of the UWSA and the

National Democratic Alliance Army another cease-fire group that is head-

quartered in Mongla Shan State15

Beijing has expressed rare (and restrained) criticism of the SPDC for pro-

voking armed clashes along a sensitive border area At the October ASEAN-

China summit in Tailand Premier Wen Jiabao told Myanmar Prime Min-

ister Tein Sein that China ldquohopes that the Burmese [Myanmar] regime will

achieve stability national reconciliation and developmentrdquo16 Border unrest

is the wild card in the SPDCrsquos schemes for a future military-controlled civil-

ian polity Should fighting between the former ceasefire groups and the at-madaw include the full participation of the UWSA or the KIA the general

election slated for 983090983088983089983088 could be indefinitely postponed Tis in turn could

plunge these border areas into instability and war of a kind not seen since the

late 983089983097983096983088s and early 983089983097983097983088s

983089983093 Saw Yan Naing ldquoBurmese Ceasefire Breaks Downrdquo Irrawaddy online August 983090983096 983090983088983088983097 at

ltwwwirrawaddyorggt accessed 983088983096-983090983097-983090983088983088983097 Tomas Fuller ldquoFleeing Battle Myanmar RefugeesHead to Chinardquo New York Times online August 983090983097 983090983088983088983097 at ltwwwnytimescomgt accessed 983088983096-983090983097-

983090983088983088983097

983089983094 Wai Moe ldquoChinese Premier Raises Border Stability at ASEAN SummitrdquoIrrawaddy online

October 983090983093 983090983088983088983097 at ltwwwirrawaddyorggt accessed 983089983088-983090983094-983090983088983088983097


Thi t t d l d d f 130 194 20 173 S t 30 N 2013 05 21 35 AM



Asian Survey Vol 983093983088 Number 983089 pp 983089983097983093ndash983090983088983090 ISSN 983088983088983088983092-983092983094983096983095 electronic ISSN 983089983093983091983091-983096983091983096X copy 983090983088983089983088

by the Regents of the University of California All rights reserved Please direct all requests for permis-

sion to photocopy or reproduce article content through the University of California Pressrsquos Rights

and Permissions website httpwwwucpressjournalscomreprintInfoasp DOI AS983090983088983089983088983093983088983089983089983097983093

195

DONALD M SEEKINS

Myanmar in 2009

A New Political Era

ABSTRACT

The appearance of an unwanted visitor in Aung San Suu Kyirsquos lakeside compound in

Yangon gave the SPDC military regime a pretext to extend her house arrest while

the refusal of major armed groups in the border areas to accept subordination under

the Tatmadaw (armed forces) central command posed serious problems for Myanmarrsquos

future stability

KEYWORDS Aung San Suu Kyi unwanted visitor James Webb 2010 general elec-tion border areas

M983161983137983150983149983137983154 983145983150 983090983088983088983097 983159983145983156983150983141983155983155983141983140 nothing comparable to the Buddhist

monk-led ldquoSaffron Revolutionrdquo of September 983090983088983088983095 or Cyclone Nargis which

devastated the Irrawaddy Delta and caused 983089983092983088983088983088983088 fatalities in May 983090983088983088983096

For the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) the most

challenging issue was the unraveling of ceasefires between the junta and eth-

nic armed groups in the border areas on the eve of the 983090983088983089983088 general election

a crisis long in the making As 983090983088983088983097 drew to a close the SPDC faced two

major questions (983089) can it stage-manage the election as efficiently as it did

the May 983090983088983088983096 constitutional referendum held in Nargisrsquos aftermath and (983090)

will instability on the bordermdashpossibly escalating into large-scale fightingmdash

derail progress toward the councilrsquos goal of ldquodisciplined democracyrdquo

AN UNWELCOME VIS ITOR

On May 983089983092 983090983088983088983097 Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was arrested and detained at In-

sein Jail north of Yangon (Rangoon) on charges that she had violated the

terms of her house arrest by allowing a 983093983091-year-old American John William

D983151983150983137983148983140 M S983141983141983147983145983150983155 is Professor of Southeast Asian Studies at Meio University in Nago Okinawa

Japan Email kenchanii-okinawanejp














































A WELCOME VIS ITOR




































































shares




































participate
























military





































ters in Naypyidaw










































late 983089983097983096983088s and early 983089983097983097983088s



983090983088983088983097
















































A WELCOME VIS ITOR




































































shares




































participate
























military





































ters in Naypyidaw










































late 983089983097983096983088s and early 983089983097983097983088s



983090983088983088983097





































shares




































participate
























military





































ters in Naypyidaw










































late 983089983097983096983088s and early 983089983097983097983088s



983090983088983088983097


































participate
























military





































ters in Naypyidaw










































late 983089983097983096983088s and early 983089983097983097983088s



983090983088983088983097




















military





































ters in Naypyidaw










































late 983089983097983096983088s and early 983089983097983097983088s



983090983088983088983097

















ters in Naypyidaw










































late 983089983097983096983088s and early 983089983097983097983088s



983090983088983088983097





















late 983089983097983096983088s and early 983089983097983097983088s



983090983088983088983097





Myanmar in 2009- A New Political Era

Documents

Transcript of Myanmar in 2009- A New Political Era