Murry Meaton - Economics Consulting Services
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Transcript of Murry Meaton - Economics Consulting Services
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Primary Energy Sources and Future Competition
February 2017
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1. Coal
2. Oil and Gas
3. Renewables
4. Electricity
i. Historyii. Outputiii. Trends
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Coal1. Collie opened 1894 for railway and steamship fuel – 123 years
2. One company by 1925 – all underground mines
3. Open cut mines
4. Total resource estimated at 6,400 mt – 1,000 years
5. 2 companies – one Chinese, one Indian
6. Premier Coal supplies Muja A/B/C/D and Collie A
7. Griffin Coal supplies Bluewaters and Worsley Alumina
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Coal Future:
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Oil and Gas
First oil Barrow Island 1967 – 50 years
First gas to Perth 1971 (Dongara) and 1984 (NWSJV)
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Oil and Gas
First LNG in 1989Million tonnes
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Petroleum resources:
Carnarvon – 104,000Browse – 37,000Bonaparte – 26,000Other – 29,500Total – 196,500Used – 15,000 (7.5%)
PJ
Conventional – 92%CSG – 8%
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Under construction
Gorgon – T1, T2, T3 – 2015 to 2018 (15mt)
Wheatstone T1, T2 – June 2017 (8.9mt)
Prelude – early 2018 (3.5mt)
Ichthys T1 – mid 2018 (8.4mt)
Operating capacity – 20.6
New capacity – 35.8
Total – 56.4
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Potential Developments:
Browse – Woodside/Shell
Scarborough – Exxon/BHPB
Gorgon 4 / 5 – Chevron
Pluto 2 – Woodside (Hess)
Wheatstone 3/4/5 - Chevron
Bonaparte - GDF Suez
Cash Maple – PTTP/Santos
Greater Sunrise
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Domgas capacity (TJ/day)
Plant operator Capacity New plant Capacity
Woodside 630 Gorgon 300
Quadrant 680 Wheatstone 200
Macedon 220
Beharra Springs 20
Dongara 7
Xyris 10
Red Gully 10
Total 1, 577 500
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Oil and Gas
Domgas and LNG gas production – historic
GSOO January 20142000 – Domgas 35% share2012-13 – 23%
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Oil and Gas
Domgas and LNG gas production – future
GSOO December 20162000 – Domgas 9%
0
500
1000
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2000
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2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Domgas LNG
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Average Domgas price – ex field ($/GJ)
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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New Contract Domgas price – ex field and delivered ($/GJ)
Source: Oakley Greenwood, December 2015 Fig 45
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Gas price forecast
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
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16.00
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Average New Contract
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Renewables
1. Hydro -Wellington Dam 1950’s (2MW), Ord River (70MW)
2. Australia’s 1st wind farm at Esperance 1993 (2MW)
3. Wind now 468MW (45% Colgar)
4. Wave – 1MW Garden Island coming
5. Rooftop PV - 530MW
6. New PV in next 10 years – 820MW
7. Total rooftop PV in 2025 – 1,400MW
8. Synergy coal capacity – 1,434
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Electricity Generation in SWIS
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SWIS Electricity forecast (MW)
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Government policies:
•Gas reservation for domestic market – 15% •Retention lease renewal•Joint marketing •Local content•Fraccing
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Gas price forecast
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Average New Contract
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Oil and Gas
Domgas and LNG gas production – historic
GSOO January 20142000 – Domgas 35% share2012-13 – 23%
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Economics Consulting Services9 Havelock Street, West Perth
Western Australia
www.econs.com.au