The Effects of Innovation Characteristics, Country Characteristics and Context on International Diffusion of Multi-generation Cellular Mobile Phone AdoptionTowhidul IslamUniversity of Guelph, CanadaandNigel MeadeImperial College, University of London, UK

University of Guelph

International Diffusion of Multi-generation Cellular Mobile Phone AdoptionDiffusion of technological innovation occurs at different rates in different countries For cellular telephonesAustrians took 12 years to achieve 5% penetration Australians took 8 years for to achieve the same penetrationInsights into the causes of the differences in national diffusion patterns are valuable relevant questions:What is the market potential for this innovation in this country? How long will it take to reach 50% (say) of the market potential?If my company enters the market in several countries, what is the optimal sequencing of its product launches?

University of Guelph

International Diffusion of Multi-generation Cellular Mobile Phone AdoptionOur modeling approach answers these questions for the cellular telephone market by combining:Diffusion model Bass (1969)Multi Generation Norton & Bass (1982)exploitation of the generational nature of this technology launch of the first analog telephones was in 1980 launch of digital was in 1992International eg Gatignon et al (1989)The information set for model estimation includes country specific data, economic, cultural, geographical countries adoption of the preceding generation of technology.

University of Guelph

OutlineReview and HypothesesData DescriptionModelAnalysisComparative Forecasting AccuracyConclusions and Implications

University of Guelph

CumulativeNon- CumulativeSample Data: AustraliaAnalogDigitalAnalogDigital

University of Guelph

Chart1

4.4231987

31.6221988

94.5291989

184.9431990

291.4591991

4971992

6901993

1185.14634.854

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6755640

928470

3711169

2712000

march Data

Country Nos.Country NameData IndexYearDV_Analog_1000 peopleDV_Digital_1000 peopleDV_Total_1000 peopleAnalog_Cellular_per 1000 peopleDigital_Cellular_per 1000 peopleTotal_Cellular_per 1000 peopleDV_Analog_1000DV_Digital_1000DV_Total_1000Analog_Cellular in 1000Digital_Cellular_in 1000Total_Cellular_in 1000Time_AnalogTime_DigitalTime_Totala_indexd_indexGeo_Region_6Eco_RegionCountry_Lag_Adoption_TimeGDP per capita, PPP (constant 1995 international $1000)GDP per capita growth (annual %)Purchasing power parity (PPP) share weight of world GDPElectric power consumption (in 1000_kwh per capita)Energy use per PPP GDP (kg of oil equivalent per constant 1995 PPP $)Tel_invest_capDaily newspapers (per 10,000 people)Radios (per 10,000 people)Television sets (per 10,000 people)Internet users (per 10,000 people)Int'l_Traffic_incoming_hours_per MainTelephoneInt'l_Traffic_outgoing_hours_per MainTelephoneMain Telephone Lines per 100 InhabitantsPassenger cars (per 10,000 people)GINI# Ethnic GroupsSize (in % )of major ethnic groupUrban population (% of total)_WBHuman Development Index (HDI) TrendsHouseholds_milPop_milPopulation growth (annual %)Labor force, female (% of total labor force)Literacy Rate (Adult)Population density (100 people per sq km)Foreign direct investment, net inflows (% of GDP)High-technology exports (% of manufactured exports)Openness in Constant PricesResearchers in R&D (per 100 million people)Researchers in R&D as % of Labor forceIndustry, value added (% of GDP)Services, etc., value added (% of GDP)Patent applications, nonresidents per 100 million peoplePatent applications, residents per 100 million peopleMissing_Patent_non_residentMissing_patent_residentContextMono-PolyPDIIDVMASUAIDemocracy/Autocracy LevelPolitical RightsCivil LibertiesEcon. Freedom ScoresEconomic Risk RatingFinancial Risk RatingPolitical Risk RatingWait % of Main LineTelephone Faults per 100 Main LinesDigital Main Lines (%)Cellular - cost of 3 minute local call (peak) (US$)Cellular Connection Charge (US$)Cellular Monthly Subscription (US$)Cellular - cost of 3 minute local call (peak) relative to GDP capita (%)Cellular Connection Charge relative to GDP capita (%)Cellular Monthly Subscription relative to GDP capita (%)Missing_3 minutes peak local callMissing_Connection chargeMissing_monthly subscription

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