1| VERBUND | Presentation VERBUND Vienna, 10.10.2008.
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Transcript of 1| VERBUND | Presentation VERBUND Vienna, 10.10.2008.
2 | VERBUND HIGHLIGHTS
>most valuable listed company in Austria
>12.2 billion EUR market capitalization*
>116 power plants with 8,300 MW bottle
neck capacity and ~25,000 GWhstandard capacity
>~60,000 GWh trading volume and trading subsidiaries in 10 countries
>~4,000 GWh to end customers
>~3,400 km power grid route length
FINANCIAL KEY FACTS
2004 2005 2006 2007
Sales revenue mil.€ 1,712 2,134 2,878 3,038
EBIT mil.€ 386.0 527.0 806.5 916.1
Total Profit mil.€ 235.4 349.3 501.1 579.2
Operating CF mil.€ 438.5 680.5 753.9 807.6
Investing CF mil.€ -169.5 -83.2 -514.0 -646.6
EBIT Margin % 22.5 24.7 28.0 36.2
ROIC % 8.1 11.2 14.7 15.2
>SHAREHOLDING STRUCTURE
><24 %>Free float
>>25 %>Provincial power utilities
>51 %>Republic of Austria
*06/11/08
3 |
>Creation of an unique position as specialist for growth markets
>Establishment of a portfolio mix of existing and new projects to
accelerate the returns and to gain a steady P&L development
>Focus on business model “asset based trader” with priority on CO2 extensive technology
(hydro, gas, renewables)
>Foundation of Verbund International (VI) to dedicate management attention and resources
VERBUND REGIONAL FOCUS
Trading subsidiaries
4 |
Source www.teias.gov.tr
> total GDP equals two thirds of the total of EU-New Member States (per capita about half)> has one of the biggest and strongest growing populations and is one of the most important
growth markets in larger Europe> Foreign Direct Investment into Turkey has steadily increased over the last 5 years (pushed
up by privatizations and reform efforts in line with EU acquits preparation and Worldbank recommendations)
> Despite political hick-ups, Turkey has proven a stable regulatory and legal framework for foreign investors and is investment-friendly
Forward Prices Base (real 2007) in EUR/MWh
Source: Global Insight & Mercados & Pöyry
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
Germany
Turkey
SEE
1995-2005 CAGR: 6.5 %
2005-2020 CAGR: 7.8 %
Electricity Demand – Turkey (TWh)
TURKEY RATIONALE
5 |
Equity Stake:> 50 % stake (Partner Sabanci)
Targets:> 5,000 MW generation till 2015> 10 % market share (generation & sales)
Recent developments:> Winning bidder for Baskent EDAS
@ 1,225 bn USD> 1 bn EUR financing signed for the
construction of 2,000 MW of greenfield power plants
> 919 MW CCGT Bandirma ground breaking ceremony this month
> Over 600 MW HPP under construction(4 HPP)
> Licences for 69 MW wind, further 155 MW applied for
Çanakkale30 MW
Çanakkale65 MW
Gazipasa14 + 16 MW
Adana120 MW
Tufanbeyli450 MW
Mersin65 MWBirkapili
48 MW
Sucati7 MW
Hydro Power Plants
1000 MW
Bandirma919 MW
Bandirma24 MW
Kentsa120 MW
Mersin101 MW
Hydro
Thermal
Wind
TURKEY ENERJISA
6 |
> Dynamic economy growth expects increase of electricity consumption> Base scenario shows a growth rate in SEE off 2.3 % p. a. (EU-Energy Demand Forecast) which is
significantly above the EU average> Outdated generation plants
> Growing economical integration with EU incl. CO2 regime
> Integration of the Balkan states to one market zone; Development of a SEE wholesale market
PLCZ SK
HU R
O
BG
SL
RSHR
BIHME
MKAL
GR
2008
PLCZ SK
HU R
O
BG
SL
RSHR
BIHME
ALGR
MK
2020
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Electricity consumption growth CAGR until 2020 Integration of the market by 2020
CEE/SEE RATIONALE
7 | FINANCIAL CRISIS OUTLOOK
IMF updates World Economic Outlook after one month!
> World growth slows from 5% in 2007 to 3,75% in 2008 and just over 2% in 2009
> Central and eastern Europe from 5,7% in 2007 to 4,2% in 2008 and 2,5% in 2009
> Weakening prospects are depressing commodity prices
> The financial crisis remains virulent
> Consumers and firms are reassessing income prospects
1.2
2.8 2.6
1.3
0.2
4.2
2.5
6.7
5.7
4.5
3.4
-0.5-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2006 2007 2008 2009
Euro area Nov 08 Euro area Oct 08
Central and eastern Europe Nov 08 Central and eastern Europe Oct 08
> Real GDP growth – Development (Percent change)
Source: IMF - World Economic Outlook
8 | FINANCIAL CRISIS NEW INVESTMENTS
-30%
> Increase of financing costs
> Higher equity/debt relation
> Increase of WACC
> Reduction of NPVs and equity IRRs
> Difficulties to find a financing bank (even together with financial institutions)
> Stronger influence of financing banks in management
> Example:NPV for a new 400 MW CCGT
9 | RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES
o + Over-average growth rate
o + High return expectations
BUT
o ~ Political intervention- “Robin Hood”-Tax- Renewable subsidies
o ~ Tender & licensing procedures
o ~ Economic development
o ~ Development of primary energy and electricity prices
o ~ Capital intensity; financing constraints
o ~ Human resources
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
High Case
Low Case
Source: Pöyry
Spread of more than 60 EUR/MWh
EUR/MWh
Forward Prices Base SEE (real 2007)