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A

MAJOR RESEARCH PROJECT

REPORT

ON

Impact of Economic Variables on the

Stock Market Volatility

{Submitted towards the partial fulfillment of the requirements ofthe two year full time MBA Programme}

SUBMITTED TO:

FACULTY OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES

(Mohanlal Sukhadia University, Udaipur, Rajasthan)

Supervised By: - Submitted by:-

Dr.Hanuman Parsad Ujjwal Goyal

Asst. Professor MBA (2008-2010)

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DECLARATION

Hereby declare that the project report entitled Impact of Economic

Variables on the Stock Market Volatility submitted for the degree of Master

of Business Administration, is my original work and the project report has

not formed the basis for the award of any diploma, degree, associate ship,

fellowship or similar other titles. It has not been submitted to any other

university or institution for the award of any degree or diploma.

Place. Ujjwal Goyal

Date MBA (2008-2010)

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CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that Mr. Ujjwal Goyal of MBA fourth semester of FMS,

Udaipur has completed her project report on the topic of Impact of

Economic Variables on the Stock Market Volatility under the supervision of

Dr. Hanuman Parsad faculty member of FMS- Udaipur.

To best of my knowledge the report is original and has not been copied or

submitted anywhere else. It is an independent work done by him

Dr. Hanuman Parsad

Asst. Professor,

Faculty of Management Studies

Udaipur

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Practical study is an excellent tool for learning and exploration. No classroom

routine can substitute which is possible while working in real situations.Application of theoretical knowledge to practical situations is the bonanzas of

this study.

Without a proper combination of inspection and perspiration, its not easy to

achieve anything. There is always a sense of gratitude, which we express to

others for the help and the needy services they render during the different

phases of our lives. I too would like to do it as I really wish to express my

gratitude toward all those who have been helpful to me directly or indirectly

during the development of this project.

First of all I wish to express my profound gratitude and sincere thanks to my

esteemed learned Director Prof. Karunesh Saxena, Director FMS,

Udaipur.

I would like to thank Dr. Hanuman Parsad who was always there to help

and guide me when I needed help. Working under him was an extremely

knowledgeable and enriching experience for me. I am very thankful to him

for all the value addition and enhancement done to me.

No words can adequately express my overriding debt of gratitude to my

parents whose support helps me in all the way. Above all I shall thank my

friends who constantly encouraged and blessed me so as to enable me to do

this work successfully.

Ujjwal Goyal

MBA (2008-2010)

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Stock market plays an important role in the economic development

of a country. A number of studies have been investigated on the

causal relationship between economic variables and stock exchange

prices. It has examined the causal relationship between economic

variables and stock market prices in Pakistan. The data from

JAN2007 to DEC2009 have been used to analyze the causal

relationship between various economic variables and stock

exchange prices. The set of economic variables includes; inflation,

interest rate, balances of trade and index of industrial production

,foreign institutional investor, mutual funds whereas the stock

exchange prices have been represented by the general price index of

the Bombay Stock Exchange(SENSEX), which is the market

representative stock exchange in India. The statistical techniques

used include correlation, T-test, F-test. The study found nearly zero

correlation between economic indicators and stock exchange prices.

And no causal relationship was found between economic variables

and stock exchange prices in India. Which means performance of

economic variables cannot be used to predict stock prices.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

DECLARATION IICERTIFICATE III

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT IV

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY V

1. INTRODUCTION TO THE STUDY

2. REVIEW OF LITERATURE

3. OBJECTIVE AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

4. ANALYSES & INTERPRETATION OF DATA

5. CONCLUSION

TABLES

BIBLIOGRAPHY

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INTRODUCTION

The movement of stock indices is highly sensitive to the changes in

fundamentals of the economy and to the changes in expectations about

future prospects. Expectations are influenced by the micro and macro

fundamentals which may be formed either rationally or adaptively on

economic fundamentals, as well as by many subjective factors which are

unpredictable and also non quantifiable. It is assumed that domestic

economic fundamentals play determining role in the performance of stock

market. However, in the globally integrated economy, domestic economic

variables are also subject to change due to the policies adopted and

expected to be adopted by other countries or some global events. The

common external factors influencing the stock return would be stock prices

in global economy, the interest rate and the exchange rate. For instance,

capital inflows and outflows are not determined by domestic interest rate

only but also by changes in the interest rate by major economies in the

world. Recently, it is observed that contagion from the US subprime crisis

has played significant movement in the capital markets across the world as

foreign hedge funds unwind their positions in various markets. Other burning

example in India is the appreciation of currency due to higher inflow of

foreign exchange. Rupee appreciation has declined stock prices of major

export oriented companies. Information technology and textile sector are the

example of falling stock prices due to rupee appreciation.

The modern financial theory focuses upon that securities market must have

a significant relationship with real and financial sectors of the economy. This

relationship generally viewed in two ways. The first relationship views the

stock market as the leading indicator of the economic activity in the country,

whereas the second focuses on the possible impact the stock market may

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have on aggregate demand, particularly through aggregate consumption and

investment. The former case implies that stock market leads economic

activity, whereas the latter suggests that it lags economic activity.

Knowledge of the sensitivity of stock market to macroeconomic behavior of

key variables and vice-versa is important in many areas of investments and

finance. This research may be useful to understand this relationship.

From the beginning of the 1990s in India, a number of measures have been

taken for economic liberalization. At the same time, large number of steps

has been taken to strengthen the stock market such as opening of the stock

markets to international investors, regulatory power of SEBI, trading in

derivatives, etc. These measures have resulted in significant improvements

in the size and depth of stock markets in India and they are beginning to

play their due role. Presently, the movement in stock market in India is

viewed and analyzed carefully by large number of global players.

Understanding macro dynamics of Indian stock market may be useful for

policy makers, traders and investors. Results may reveal whether the

movement of stock prices is the outcome of something else or it is one ofthe causes of movement in other macro dimension in the economy. The

study also expects to explore whether the movement of stock market are

associated with economy. In this context, the objective of this paper is to

explore such causal relations for India.

The paper is organized in the following sections. Section II provides review

of selected literature on the causal relationship between stock prices andmacro variables. Section III discusses the research methodology. Section IV

analyze and interpretate data. Finally, Section V provides concluding

remarks.

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REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There is lot work has been done so far in this regard. I have overview some

of economist works and some text books in this section of the paper as

review literature. The hypothesis the change in economics variable has got

strong impact on stock prices as subject extensive research.

Shahid Ahmed (2003) has worked on SENSEX index price effects by real

and financial sector performance in economy. This study investigates the

nature of the causal relationships between stock prices and the key macro

economic variables representing real and financial sector of the Indian

economy for the period March, 1995 to March, 2007 using quarterly data.

These variables are the index of industrial production, exports, foreign direct

investment, money supply, exchange rate, interest rate, NSE Nifty and BSE

Sensex in India. Johansen`s approach of co-integration and Toda and

Yamamoto Granger causality test have been applied to explore the long-run

relationships while BVAR modeling for variance decomposition and impulse

response functions has been applied to examine short run relationships. The

results of the study reveal differential causal links between aggregate macro

economic variables and stock indices in the long run. However, the revealed

causal pattern is similar in both markets in the short run. The study indicates

that stock prices in India lead economic activity except movement in interest

rate. Interest rate seems to lead the stock prices. The study indicates that

Indian stock market seems to be driven not only by actual performance but

also by expected potential performances. The study reveals that the

movement of stock prices is not only the outcome of behavior of key macro

economic variables but it is also one of the causes of movement in other

macro dimension in the economy.

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Suliaman D. Mohammad, Adnan Hussain and Adnan Ali (2009) have

worked in the context of Pakistan. Their paper was to find the relationship

between macroeconomic variables and prices of shares in Karachi stock

exchange in Pakistan context. They considers the quarterly data of several

economic variables such as foreign exchange rate, foreign exchange reserve,

industrial production index, whole sale price index, gross fixed capital

formation, and broad money M2 , these variables are obtain from 1986 to

2008 period . They try to make link these macroeconomics variables to stock

prices. Compared to earlier work we have used multiple regression analysis

and compare the results. The results shows that after the reforms in 1991

the influence of foreign exchange rate and reserve effects significantly to

stock market whiles other variables like IIP and GFCF are not effects

significantly to stock prices. So their result shows that internal factors of

firms like increase production and capital formation not effects significantly

while external factors like exchange rate and reserve are effects significantly

the stock prices. So the after post reforms period is positively effects stock

prices.

Imran Ali, Kashif Ur Rehman, Ayse Kucuk Yilmaz, Muhammad Aslam

Khan and Hasan Afzal (2009) have also worked on the similar subject for

the Pakistan. This study has examined the causal relationship between

macro-economic indicators and stock market prices in Pakistan. The data

from June 1990 to December 2008 have been used to analyze the causal

relationship between various macro-economic variables and stock exchangeprices. The set of macro-economic indicators includes; inflation, exchange

rate, balances of trade and index of industrial production, whereas the stock

exchange prices have been represented by the general price index of the

Karachi Stock Exchange, which is the largest stock exchange in Pakistan.

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The statistical techniques used include unit root Augmented Dickey Fuller

test, Johansens co-integration and Grangers causality test. The study found

co-integration between industrial production index and stock exchange

prices. However, no causal relationship was found between macro-economic

indicators and stock exchange prices in Pakistan. Which means performance

of macro-economic indicators cannot be used to predict stock prices;

moreover stock prices in Pakistan do not reflect the macro-economic

condition of the country.

Theophano Patra and Sunil Poshakwale (2006) this research examines

the short run dynamic adjustments and the long run equilibriumrelationships between selected macroeconomic variables, trading volume

and stock returns in the emerging Greek stock market during the period

1990 to 1999. Empirical results show that short run and long run equilibrium

relationship exists between inflation, money supply and trading volume and

the stock prices in the Athens stock exchange. No short run or long run

equilibrium relationship is found between the exchange rates and stock

prices. The results of this research are consistent with the theoreticalarguments and practical developments that occurred in the Greek stock

markets during the sample period. The results also imply that the ASE is

informationally inefficient because publicly available information on

macroeconomic variables and trading volumes can be potentially used in

predicting stock prices.

1. Ahmed (2008), Aggregate Economic Variables and Stock Markets in India,International Research Journal of Finance and Economics.

2. Mohammad ect. all (2009), Impact of Macroeconomics Variables on Stock Prices:Empirical Evidence in Case of KSE (Karachi Stock Exchange), European Journal ofScientific Research.

3. Ali ect. all (2009),Causal relationship between macro-economic indicators and stockexchange prices in Pakistan, African Journal of Business Management.

4. Patra and Poshakwale (2010), Economic variables and stock market returns:evidence from the Athens stock exchange, Applied Financial Economics.

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Other than these researches from the economists I have review some text

books for the purpose of research methodology and hypothesis process.

According to C.R.Kothari (Research Methodology) hypothesis simply

means a mere assumption or some supposition to be proved. But for a

researcher hypothesis is a formal question that he to resolve. Thus a

hypothesis may be defined as a proposition or a set of proposition set forth

as expiation for the occurrence of some specified group of phenomena either

asserted merely as provisional conjecture to guide some investigations or

accepted as highly probable in the light of established facts.Quite often a

research hypothesis is a predictive statement, capable of being tested by

scientific methods, that relates independent variables to some dependent

variables.

According to J.K.Sharma (Business statistics) an analysis of data

concerning two or more quantitative variables is needed to look for any

statistical relationship or association between them that can describe

numerical features of association. The knowledge of such a relationship is

important to make inferences from the relationship between variables in

given situation. In further this book refers to apply t-test for the test of

significane between two variables and f-test for the multiple variables.

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OBJECTIVE AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Objectives

In this study the major objective is to find out the correlation and causal

relationship, if any, between the stock market and real economic variables.

It will shed light on the degree of integration of the two markets and how

they affect each other. The specific sets of objectives of the study are as

follows:

(1) To calculate correlation and check the dependency, if any, between the

stock market index SENSEX and economic variables.

(2) To explore that to what degree the two, stock market and real economic

variables cause each other.

Methodology Adopted

With a view to accomplish the stipulated set of objectives of our study,

different methods have been adopted. First of all, to fulfill the research

objectives, descriptive statistics like standard deviation, mean, etc. are

carried to show the nature and basic characteristics of the variables used in

the analysis. Correlation is the next step to move towards the objectives of

this study and finding any relation between the stock market and economic

variables.

Then the formal investigation is carried out by examining the dependency of

stock market on economic variables by using t-Test AND f-Test.

T-test

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The test of hypothesis for the existence of a linear relationship between two

variables x and y involves the determination of sample correlation

coefficient. This test of linear relationship between x and y is the same as

determining whether there is any significant correlation between them. The

null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis are expressed as:

H0 : No correlation exist between variables x and y

H1 : Correlation exist between variables x and y

t-Test is performed to test the dependency of the two variables. If the

calculated t-value is greater than its critical value at degree of the freedom

and level of significance then the null hypothesis will we rejected otherwise it

will we accepted.

F-test

To understand whether all independent variables xi taken together

significantly explain the variability observed in the dependent variable y. to

apply f-test, the null hypothesis is defined as:

H0 : y does not depend on x is

H1 : y depends on at least one of the xsi

f-Test is performed to test the dependency of the variables more than two. If

the calculated f-value is greater than its critical value at degree of the

freedom and level of significance then the null hypothesis will we rejectedotherwise it will we accepted.

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ANALYSES & INTERPRETATION OF DATA

In this study monthly data from JAN2007 onwards to DEC2009 has been

used in case of all the variables like, INTEREST RATE, GOVT.BOND 10 YEAR

YIELD RATE, INFLATION (WPI), IIP (INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION),

FII(FORIGEN INSTIUTIONAL INVESTOR) for debt and equity has taken

separately, MF(MUTTUAL FUNDS), SENSEX (SEBI). The major source of data

of all the above economic variables is www.tradingeconomics.com and on-

line data source of SEBI. The major macro economic variables used in this

study are briefly explained below.

1. Interest Rate: In our banking system we have various rate of interest

but for the purpose of the study I have taken CRR.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/http://www.tradingeconomics.com/

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2. Govt. Bond: This is the yield rate of the govt. bonds for the 10 years

period on the annually basis.

3. Inflation (WPI): For any countrys economy to grow low rate inflation

serves as an inducing tonic. Slow rise in prices are supposed to induce theproducers to increase the production which in turn ensure more and more

employment opportunities in the country. But uncontrolled inflation or even

deflation has serious repercussions for the economy. To measure this

inflation Government of India (GoI) has various indices, amongst which WPI

is the one which is believed to be a very comprehensible and lucid measure.

It is the only general index capturing price movements in a comprehensive

way. It is an indicator of movement in prices of commodities in all trade andtransactions. The new series of WPI has about 435 items in its commodity

basket. In its new series Primary Articles contribute 98 items, Fuel, Power,

Light and Lubricants 19 items and Manufactured Products provide 318

items.

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4. IIP:

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5. FII:

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6. MF:

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7. BOT:

8. SENSEX: SENSEX is called sensitive index which is an indicator of the

major thirty companies at Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) market which are

chosen from various sectors of the economy by a committee on the basis of

a certain given criteria. In fact, it gives us a general idea about whether

most of the stocks have gone up or down. It is taken to be an indicator of

financial health of the capital market of India. BSE is the largest of 22

exchanges in India with over 6000 listed companies and is the 5th largestexchange in the world with market capitalization of US $4.66 billion. It is

oldest in Asia as it traces its history back to 1850s.

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Descriptive Statistics

Variables Std. Dev MAX. MIN. MEAN C0RSENSEX 13.2 21.75 -34.75 .85 1

IR .24 0 -1.19 -0.07 0GB 0.92 0.78 -1.38 -0.005 0.05IIP 3.24 6.2 -7.3 0.17 0.10INF 0.92 2.6 -1.6 0.23 -0.20BOT 23.24 62.37 -55.37 -2.08 -0.31MF(D) 114.97 248.46 -295.06 1.66 0.09MF(E) 23.38 46.96 -52.11 -0.19 -0.01FII(D) 85.40 310.86 -340.24 -0.26 0.31FII(E) 114.66 234.12 -315.24 2.38 0.05

t- test table

NULL HYPOTHESIS t-value(cal) Result

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No correlation between SNSX and IR 0.66 Accept

No correlation between SNSX and GB 0.68 Accept

No correlation between SNSX and IIP 0.75 Accept

No correlation between SNSX and INF 0.77 Accept

No correlation between SNSX and BOT 0.56 Accept

No correlation between SNSX and MF(D) 0.96 Accept

No correlation between SNSX and MF(E) 0.81 Accept

No correlation between SNSX and IIF(D) 0.93 Accept

No correlation between SNSX and IIF(E) 0.93 Accept

At 5% level of significance and critical t value is 1.99

f-test table

Source of

variation

Sum of

squares

Degree of

freedom

Mean

square

F-

value(cal)

0.007

Result

Accept

Between sample 454.98 9 50.55

Within sample 2375002 349 6805.16

Total 2375457 358

At 5% level of significance and critical value is 1.90

CONCLUSION

The study found no relationship between economic variables and stock

exchange prices in India. Individually, the study found no correlation

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between sensex and interest rates, no correlation between sensex and index

of industrial production, no correlation between sensex and inflation rate, no

correlation between sensex and mutual funds investments, no correlation

between sensex and foreign institution inventors investments, and no

correlation between and balance of trade. Overall, the study found that

sensex prices do not depend on economic variables or we can say that

economic variables do not impact the stock market volatility.

The study shows that Indian equity markets are not having relationship with

economic variables. Which employs that economic news cannot be used to

predict stock exchange prices. These findings answer our research

questions.

TABLES

Time

SENSE

X IR GB IIP INF BOT MF(D)

MF(E

) FII(D) FII(E)

Jan-07 14096 67.7

6 11.6 6.72 -2850 2217.2

-1022.

6 351.1 351.1Feb-

07 14233 67.8

8 11 7.56 -3620 2669-

273.4 955.5 7239.6

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Mar-07 12872 6

7.99 14.8 6.72 -4275 4287.5

-1805.

4 1613.8-

1243.2

Apr-07 13424 68.1

1 11.3 6.67 -7044 3485 960.6 1091 6874May-

07 14093 6

8.1

5 10.6 6.61 -8694 6915.4

1432.

9 1740.9 3175.2

Jun-07 14316 68.1

4 8.9 5.69 -7915 8592.81025.

2 -670.3 2084.9

Jul-07 15137 67.8

9 8.3 6.45 -861511347.

2 -1610 -29924244.

8Aug-

07 14643 67.9

5 10.9 7.26 -7725 918.32844.

1 -479.6-

7279.5Sep-

07 16074 6 7.9 7 6.4 -5696 9713.6-

763.7 2655.816132.

6

Oct-07 18249 6

7.8

9 12.2 5.51 -7158

12314.

1

-1591.

6 2618.4

20103.

6Nov-07 19359 6

7.89 4.9 5.51 -9195 -7074.3

1105.6 -526.6

-4422.3

Dec-07 19746 6

7.88 8 5.51 -5491 1082.9

3202.8 3070.3 4438.2

Jan-08 19722 67.7

5 6.2 5.51 -7955 -42695269.

4 1962.4

-10625.

8Feb-

08 17793 67.5

5 9.5 5.47 -568811407.

7 57.5 2925 2262.2Mar-

08 16136 67.7

3 5.5 7.87 -632012265.

1 -1881 -849 -16.1

Apr-08 16189 68.0

9 6.2 7.81 -1185714894.

3-

220.8 -1257.1 648.2

May-08 17105 6

7.98 4.4 7.75 -10757 6272.6

-388.5 -162.9

-13193.

7

Jun-08 15110 68.4

8 5.4 7.69 -9770 3072.72888.

5 -737-

9349.6

Jul-08 13709 69.1

6 6.4 8.33 -12595 4580.7 782.4 3782.5 -503.5Aug-

08 14703 69.0

7 1.7 9.02 -15764 7050.4-

767.1 1110.1-

1355.5Sep-

08 13907 6 8.4 6 9.77 -15347 6070

1925.

4

32196.

6 -8061

Oct-08 10433 67.8

9 0.110.4

5 -11738

-23490.

8 854.5 -1827.7

-13261.

5Nov-

08 9429 67.3

8 2.510.4

5 -12325 -3598.5-

372.6 4215-

2598.3Dec-

08 95215.2

4 6 -0.2 9.7 -608813223.

9-

490.4 1187.3 1895.3

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Jan-09 93414.0

55.9

7 110.4

5 -535916701.

6

-1979.

1 807.5-

4545.6

Feb-09 9301 4

5.93 0.2 9.63 -3121

16642.9

-1495.

5 -687.8-

2436.6

Mar-09 8998

3.55

6.71 0.3 8.03 -3680

17488.3

1070.4 -6738 1265.6

Apr-09 108763.3

96.5

6 1.1 8.7 -701226007.

3 18 1611.3 6682.1May-

09 127933.2

56.4

2 2.1 8.63 -797410181.

91602.

6 -242.317988.

1

Jun-09 149073.2

56.8

4 8.3 9.29 -963012820.

3 944.1 4625.7 2759.9

Jul-09 146353.2

56.9

7 7.211.8

9 -779627883.

6 1496 4253.5 9005.1Aug-

09 15481

3.2

5

7.1

9 10.6

11.7

2 -8471 8422.4 657.6 -459.4 3810

Sep-09 16347

3.25

7.26 9.3

11.64 -6707 7655.2

-2241.

1 4317.113929.

9

Oct-09 169793.2

57.3

3 10.211.4

9 -880132501.

2

-5766.

8 6853.110643.

9

Nov-09 16511

3.25

7.26 12

13.51 -9690

15754.4

-1070.

5 936.4 6227.3

Dec-

09 17075

3.2

5

7.5

8 17.6

14.9

7 -10147 8056

-1716.

5 -588.2 8683.4BOT is in millions, MF and FII is monthly flow of rupees in crores, SENSEX is in points

and others are in percentage.

TIME

SENSE

X IR GB IIP INF BOT MF(D) MF(E) FII(D) FII(E)

Feb-07 1.37 0 0.12 -0.6 0.84 -7.7 4.518 7.492 6.044 68.885

Mar-07 -13.61 0 0.11 3.8 -0.84 -6.55 16.185 -15.32 6.583 84.828

Apr-07 5.52 0 0.12 -3.5 -0.05

-27.6

9 -8.025 27.66 -5.228 81.172

May-07 6.69 0 0.04 -0.7 -0.06 -16.5 34.304 4.723 6.499 36.988

Jun-07 2.23 0 -0.01 -1.7 -0.92 7.79 16.774 -4.077 -24.112 10.903

Jul-07 8.21 0 -0.25 -0.6 0.76 -7 27.544-

26.352 3.713221.59

9Aug-07 -4.94 0 0.06 2.6 0.81 8.9 -

104.2844.541 -1.806

315.24

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9 3

Sep-07 14.31 0 -0.05 -3.9 -0.8620.2

9 87.953-

36.078 31.354234.12

1

Oct-07 21.75 0 -0.01 5.2 -0.89

-14.6

2 26.005 -8.279 -0.374 39.71

Nov-07 11.1 0 0 -7.3 0

-20.3

7

-193.88

4 26.972 -31.45245.25

9

Dec-07 3.87 0 -0.01 3.1 037.0

4 81.572 20.972 35.969 88.605

Jan-08 -0.24 0 -0.13 -1.8 0

-24.6

4-

53.519 20.666 -11.079 150.64

Feb-08 -19.29 0 -0.2 3.3 -0.0422.6

7156.76

7-

52.119 9.626 128.88

Mar-08 -16.57 0 0.18 -4 2.4 -6.32 8.574

-

19.385 -37.74 22.783

Apr-08 0.53 0 0.36 0.7 -0.06

-55.3

7 26.292 16.602 -4.081 6.643

May-08 9.16 0 -0.11 -1.8 -0.06 11-

86.217 -1.677 10.942138.41

9

Jun-08 -19.95 0 0.5 1 -0.06 9.87-

31.999 32.77 -5.741 38.441

Jul-08 -14.01 0 0.68 1 0.64

-28.2

5 15.08-

21.061 45.195 88.461

Aug-08 9.94 0 -0.09 -4.7 0.69

-31.6

9 24.697-

15.495 -26.724 -8.52

Sep-08 -7.96 0 -0.67 4.3 0.75 4.17 -9.804 26.925310.86

5 67.055

Oct-08 -34.74 0 -0.51 -5.9 0.6836.0

9

-295.60

8-

10.709

-340.24

3 52.005

Nov-08 -10.04 0 -0.51 2.4 0 -5.87198.92

3-

12.271 60.427106.63

2

Dec-08 0.92 -0.76 -1.38 -2.7 -0.7562.3

7168.22

4 -1.178 -30.277 44.936

Jan-09 -1.8 -1.19 -0.03 1.2 0.75 7.29 34.777-

14.887 -3.798 64.409

Feb-09 -0.4 -0.05 -0.04 -0.8 -0.8222.3

8 -0.587 4.836 -14.953 21.09

Mar-09 -3.03 -0.45 0.78 0.1 -1.6 -5.59 8.454 25.659 -60.502 37.022

Apr-09 18.78 -0.16 -0.15 0.8 0.67

-33.3

2 85.19-

10.524 83.493 54.165

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May-09 19.17 -0.14 -0.14 1 -0.07 -9.62

-158.25

4 15.846 -18.536 113.06

Jun-09 21.14 0 0.42 6.2 0.66

-16.5

6 26.384 -6.585 48.68152.28

2

Jul-09 -2.72 0 0.13 -1.1 2.618.3

4150.63

3 5.519 -3.722 62.452

Aug-09 8.46 0 0.22 3.4 -0.17 -6.75

-194.61

2 -8.384 -47.129 51.951

Sep-09 8.66 0 0.07 -1.3 -0.0817.6

4 -7.672-

28.987 47.765101.19

9

Oct-09 6.32 0 0.07 0.9 -0.15

-20.9

4 248.46-

35.257 25.36 -32.86

Nov-09 -4.68 0 -0.07 1.8 2.02 -8.89

-167.46

8 46.963 -59.167 44.166

Dec-09 5.64 0 0.32 5.6 1.46 -4.57-

76.984 -6.46 -15.246 24.561% change on the monthly basis for the all variables

BIBLIOGRAPHY

WEB LINK

1. www.google.com

2. www.wikipedia.com

3. www.tradingeconomics.com

4. www.sebi.com

5. www.academicjournals.org

6. www.eurojournals.com

7. www.informaworld.com

http://www.google.com/http://www.google.com/http://www.wikipedia.com/http://www.wikipedia.com/http://www.tradingeconomics.com/http://www.tradingeconomics.com/http://www.sebi.com/http://www.sebi.com/http://www.academicjournals.org/http://www.academicjournals.org/http://www.eurojournals.com/http://www.eurojournals.com/http://www.informaworld.com/http://www.informaworld.com/http://www.google.com/http://www.wikipedia.com/http://www.tradingeconomics.com/http://www.sebi.com/http://www.academicjournals.org/http://www.eurojournals.com/http://www.informaworld.com/

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Books

1. Business Statics (J.K.SHARMA)

2. Research Methodology Method and Techniques (C.R.Kothari)

Soft wares

Microsoft Excel

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