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Summer Internship Project

Market research of the thin films technology and using it as a

differentiator for positioning it in the international markets

SIPProject Report Submitted In Partial Fulfillment of Requirements for the PGDM

Program

2010-12

Submitted by

Name: Ashish Mohan Srivastava

Roll number: 2010268

Supervisors: 1. Mr. Raj Kumar Verma

Assistant Manager (Projects and Services)

Moserbaer Photovoltaic India Ltd.

2. Professor J.Mohanty

Institute Of Management Technology, Nagpur

2010-12


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AcknowledgementIt gives me a great sense of pleasure to present the report after undergoing an intense summer

internship at Moserbaers Photo Voltaic wing. It is really difficult to gratify each and every

person who has been instrumental in the completion ofthe project butI am taking great care that

no one is left out.

So in the same sequence at very first, I would like to acknowledge my parents

because of whom I got the existence in the world for the inception and the conception ofthis

project. Later on I would like to confer my acknowledgement to Mr. J.Mohanty my faculty

guide and other faculty members who taught me thathow to do projectthrough appropriate tools

and techniques. Because MoserbaerIndia Ltd. has trusted me and given me a chance to do my

integrated research study,I would like to give thanks to the organization and especially to Mr.

Raj Kumar Verma (Asst. Manager, Projects and Services) my corporate mentor and Mr.

Sanjeev Kumar (Research Scientist) from the depth of my heart.

I would also like to thankMr. Rakesh Singh (GM- projects) of Moserbaer Photovoltaic without

his sincere efforts I would not have been able to get into this esteemed organization. Rest all

those people who helped me are not only matter of acknowledgment but also authorized for

sharing my success.


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INDUSTRY CERTIFICATE

This is to certify thatthe project work done on Study of the thin films technology and using it

as a market differentiator for positioning it in International markets Submitted to Institute of

Management Technology, Nagpur by Ashish Mohan Srivastava in partial fulfillment ofthe

requirement forthe award of PG Diploma in Business Management, is a bonafide work carried

out by him/her under my supervision and guidance. This workhas not been submitted anywhere

else for any other degree/diploma. The original work was carried during May 10, 2011 to June

10, 2011 in Moserbaer Photovoltaic India Ltd, New Delhi.

Date: Name and Signatures


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TABLEOF CONTENTS

IINNSS IIDDEE

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -----------------------------------------

2 INTRODUCTION

2.1 PHOTOVOLTAIC ----------------------------------------

2.2 AMORPHOUS SIL ICON(A-SI) ----------------------------------------

2.3 CADMIUM TELLURIDE(CDTE) ----------------------------------------

2.4 CIS/CIGS ----------------------------------------

2.5 EMERGING ----------------------------------------

3 COMPANY PROFILE

3.1 HISTORY ----------------------------------------2

3.2 PROMOTERS ----------------------------------------2

3.3 VISSION AND MISSION ----------------------------------------

3.4 COMPANY AND ITS PRODUCT L INE --------------------------------

3.5 VALUE CHAIN ---------------------------------------3

3.6 MILESTONES ---------------------------------------3

4 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

4.1 PRIMARY OBJECTIVE ---------------------------------------3

4.2 SECONDARY OBJECTIVE ---------------------------------------3

4.3 RESEARCH DESIGN ---------------------------------------3

4.4 RESEARCH PLAN ---------------------------------------3

5 DATA ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS

5.1 REGULATORY POLICIES ---------------------------------------4

5.2 SWOT ANALYSIS ---------------------------------------45.3 TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS ---------------------------------------5

5.4 COST ANALYSIS ---------------------------------------5

5.5 MARKET ANALYSIS ---------------------------------------5


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In this changing world everything thatholds today becomes obsolete or less competitive the next

day.

6 RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1 MARKET SEGMENTS --------------------------------------67

6.2 NEW APPLICATIONS --------------------------------------70

6.3 MARKET STRATEGIES ---------------------------------------716.4 B IBL IOGRAPHY ---------------------------------------75

6.5 ANNEXURE ---------------------------------------78


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In the same context we at moserbaer are constantly trying to keep ourselves updated and ahead

of our competitors. Thus the role ofthe Research and Development department increases many

folds. These days a new type of solar cell technology using so-called thin-film solar photovoltaic

material is in full swing and this is because it uses either very little or no silicon at all. Thin film

(TF) solartechnology promises to reduce the cost of solar modules to a level where solar power

could compete effectively with power generated from fossil fuel alternatives, thus accelerating

our society's transition to distributed, renewable forms of energy sources. Furthermore, because

thin-film solar PV materials can be applied to surfaces as varied as glass, plastic and flexible

metal foils, this emerging technology could open up new range of applications that otherwise

would not be possible using traditional solar cells. The scope of this project is to analyze the

technical merits of the different thin-film solar technologies, their market and applications,

and the dynamics of a growing, new industry. We will compare the different thin-film solar

technologies against each other and against the dominant poly-silicon technology. Next, we

will take a look at the makeup of the thin-film industry and study the different technology

strategies employed by players in this industry. We'll highlight a few manufacturers of each

type of technology and present a snapshot of the industry in terms of current production and

forecasted manufacturing capacity. We'll conclude with a technology outlook and recommend

possible technology strategies forthe a-Si technology.

INTRODUCTION

Photovoltaic


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Photovoltaic (PV) is the field of technology and research related to the application of solar

cells for energy by converting sun energy (sunlight or sun ultra violet radiation) directly

into electricity. Due to the growing demand for clean sources of energy,the manufacture of solar

cells and photovoltaic has expanded dramatically in recent years. Photovoltaic are best known as

a method for generating electric power by using solar cells packaged in photovoltaic modules,

often electrically connected in multiples as solar photovoltaic arrays to convert energy from

the sun into electricity. To explain the photovoltaic solar panel more simply, photons from

sunlight knock electrons into a higher state of energy, thereby creating electricity. The term

photovoltaic denotes the unbiased operating mode of a photodiode in which currentthroughthe

device is entirely due to the transuded light energy. Virtually all photovoltaic devices are some

type of photodiode.

Solar cells produce direct current electricity from light, which can be used to power equipment or

to recharge a battery. The first practical application of photovoltaics was to power orbiting

satellites and other spacecraft, but today the majority of photovoltaic modules are used for grid

connected power generation. In this case an inverter is required to convertthe DC to AC. There

is a smaller market for off grid power for remote dwellings, roadside emergency

telephones, remote sensing, and cathodic protection of pipelines.

Cells require protection from the environment and are usually packaged tightly behind a glass

sheet. When more power is required than a single cell can deliver, cells are electrically connected

togetherto form photovoltaic modules, or solar panels. A single module is enoughto power an

emergency telephone, but for a house or a power plantthe modules must be arranged in arrays.

Although the selling price of modules is still too high to compete with grid electricity in most

places, significant financial incentives in Japan and then Germany,Italy and France triggered a

huge growth in demand, followed quickly by production. In 2008, Spain installed 45% of all

photovoltaic, but a change in law limiting the Feed-in Tariff is expected to cause a precipitous

drop in installations there, from 2500 MW in 2008 to 375 MW in 2009.

Perhaps not unexpectedly, a significant market has emerged in off-grid locations for solar-

power-charged storage-battery based solutions. These often provide the only electricity available.


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The EPIA (European Photovoltaic Industry Association) shows that by the year 2030, PV

systems could be generating approximately 1,864 GW of electricity around the world. This

means that, assuming a serious commitment is made to energy efficiency, enough solar power

would be produced globally in twenty-five years time to satisfy the electricity needs of almost

14% ofthe worlds population.

Types of technologies in thin film photovoltaic are:

1. Amorphous Silicon(a-Si)

2. Cadmium Telluride (CdTe)

3. Copper indium gallium (di)selenide (CIGS)

4. Dye Sensitized Solar Cells (DSSC)

Our major focus will be on Amorphous Silicon

technology a-Si).

Aquestion that is often asked in this industry is: "Which thin-film technology is better?" All

thin-film technologies listed above are economically viable and have demonstrated the ability to

ramp up into large-scale manufacturing. A more appropriate question forthe future is

"Which thin-film technology will dominate?" In addition, thin-film technologies considered

as a whole could potentially be disruptive to traditional silicon-based PV technology. Therefore

Another important question is "Will thin-film PV technology replaces traditional PV

technology?"

In the next section we will analyze the merits ofthese fourtechnologies and compare them

against each other. To explore the theory thatthin-film PV solar could be a disruptivetechnology to traditional PV solar, we will also compare thin-film technology withtraditional

poly-silicon technology.

Amorphous Silicon (a-Si)


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Amorphous silicon technology is the most mature thin-film technology and was the first

technology to be available commercially in large volumes. Research into this technology began

as far as 1975 when Sanyo produced the firsthybrid amorphous-Si on crystalline silicon cell.

Since then, many thin-film companies have adopted this technology pushing the boundaries of its

conversion efficiency and helping it achieve the largest production volume amongst all thin-film

technologies. The evolution ofthis technology is illustrated in the number of different

configurations available. Single junction configuration (a-Si) is the oldest, buthas the lowest

conversion efficiency. Double junction, a-Si (2), and triple-junction, a-Si (3), configurations

have followed with increased conversion efficiency and stability overtime. In addition, a new

type of a-Si technology, called micro morph (gpcSi/a-Si),has recently emerged, breathing new

life into this mature technology.

Amorphous silicon solar cells are produced using a variety of deposition techniques at relatively

low temperatures (< 300 degC) 7 using either a rigid or flexible substrate. Unlike in crystalline Si

cells, the silicon used in a-Si cells is amorphous (has no shape) and can be deposited in thin

layers from gaseous chemical compounds such as silane (SiH 4) or other hydrogenated silicon

alloys.A few companies have developed roll-to-roll manufacturing techniques using flexible substrates

such as stainless steel or plastic film. United Solar, the largest manufacturer in this segment

produces modules on flexible stainless steel, but the flexibility is limited due to the substrate

thickness. One company, PowerFilm Solar, produces an a-Si cell on a paper-thin (0.025 mm)

plastic foil8. Most other manufacturers use glass as the substrate. A-Si solar cells are well suited

to multi-junction layers which enable optimum utilization ofthe solar spectrum. As shown in the

figure below, multiple layers of PV material tuned to specific

spectral bands are deposited on a substrate and between two layers of electrical contacts to form

the back and front contacts. Traditionally,though, a-Si solar cells consist of a single layer of PV

material (a single-junction configuration).

The efficiency of single-junction a-Si cells can be rather low (less than 5%) and because ofthis,


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the technology has evolved over the years into so-called double-junction (two layers) and triple

junction (three layers) cells with efficiencies as high as 8%. A major drawback of a-Si cells is

the degradation of cell efficiency overtime due to the so-called Staebler-Wronski (S-W) effect.

Althoughthis effect can be minimized through various manufacturing processes, it is nonetheless

present and must be accounted for. On the otherhand, despite the low conversion efficiency, a-

Si cells tend to work better in low-light conditions and,therefore, are well-suited to indoor

applications. An important new developing in a-Si technology is the combination of an

amorphous-Si layer with a microcrystalline silicon layerto form a tandem cell structure called a

micromorph cell. The microcrystalline layer exhibits both enhanced optical absorption and

stability under extended light-soaking conditions, thereby resulting in higher efficiency, stable

cells. Anumber of established companies such as Sharp and Mitsubishi have migrated to this

new technology and a majority of the new firms entering the industry in this technology sub-

segment such as the new spin-off from Q-Cells (Brilliant 234) and Moser Baer (in partnership

with Applied Materials) are adopting this new technology suggesting that there's still plenty of

growth in this mature thin film industry segment.

Cadmium Telluride (CdTe)

Nextto amorphous-silicon, cadmium telluride (CdTe), is the other mature and well-understood

thin-film technology. CdTe technology has been around nearly as long as amorphous silicon

withthe research beginning in early 1970s. The largestthin-film PV manufacturer in the world

atthis moment is First Solar, a company that produces CdTe-based solar panels. First Solar's

2006 production of 60 MW accounts for 32% ofthe worldwide thin-film PV market.

CdTe technology has two strong advantages. First, it uses a semiconductor material whose

bandgap is perfectly matched with the solar spectrum thereby providing the potential for high

efficiency modules. Secondly, it has the lowest cost large-scale manufacturing process at the

moment, and therefore the lowest price, making it an attractive option for large scale solar farm

applications. CdTe-based solar cells are produced by depositing four layers of material: a tin

oxide (TCO) layer used as the front electrical contact, followed by a layer of n-type CdS,

followed by a layer of p-type CdTe and finally a layer of conducting material as the back


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electrical contact. Typical substrate used in CdTe technology is glass (soda lime or borosilicate

glass). To be more precise, CdTe cells use a superstrate configuration, rather than a substrate

configuration; the layers are deposited on the backside of a glass material as shown below and

the light strikes the thin-film material through the deposition surface. Because of this, the

superstrate configuration can only use transparent glass as the thin-film deposition surface.

Production module efficiency for CdTe is in the order of9% with the efficiency, in laboratory

conditions, demonstrated to be 15.8%. Matsushita Battery is one company experimenting with a

radical new process of screen printing CdTe PV materials,however it does nothave any large-

scale manufacturing at the moment. In fact, only two companies, First Solar and Antec Solar,

have large-scale manufacturing plants and are currently shipping CdTe-based solar modules.

Copper Indium (Gallium) Di-Selenide (CIS/CIGS)

CIGS technology holds the distinction of being the highest performance thin-film technology

with record cell efficiency, in laboratory conditions, of 19.2%. Because ofthis, CIGS technology

is being hailed as one of the most promising solar power technologies and the companies that

have adopted CIGS technology have been the focus of much media and investor attention in

recent months. CIGS technology uses a rigid or flexible substrate coated with multiple layers of

materials beginning with a molybdenum (Mo) layer, followed by the CIGS absorber layer (the

main layer that absorbs the photons; also the thickest layer), followed by a cadmium sulfide

(CdS) buffer layer and then a zinc oxide (ZnO) layer. The device is completed by adding a top

grid layer of aluminum or nickel and an antireflective coating. CIGS manufacturing process

includes a variety of processes such as sputtering, electro-deposition and vapor deposition. In the

assembly process, laser scribing is often used to connect the front and back sides of adjacent


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cells to create a CIGS module. Some companies use a so-called monolithic integration process to

automatically build the connections between solar cells during the deposition process ratherthan

using a separate assembly process. Monolithic integration can lead to significant manufacturing

cost savings.

Emerging

Next generation thin-film technologies are still in the research phase, but a few companies are

starting to move into pilot production phase and planning large-scale manufacturing using novel

PV materials. Emerging thin-film PV cells (often called 3 rd generation cells) use materials

ranging from organic materials,to nano-based materials and dye-sensitized titanium oxide

(DSC). The conversion of lightto electricity in these materials occurs through a process of

photo-synthesis similarto the one observed in biological materials. Emerging thin-film PV cells

can be manufactured at very low cost because of relatively inexpensive materials and simple

processing. Information about materials and manufacturing processes used in this field is scarce

as many companies preferto keep details oftheirtechnology secret while still conducting

research.

In this category,the dye-sensitized solar cells (DSC) seem to have the biggest lead atthe

moment. Research into DSC technology has been going on for almost 20 years. One ofthe lead

researchers in this field, Dr. Michael Graetzel,has helped bring this technology from laboratory

into production. One company, G24 Innovations, is building a 30 MW pilot facility using a

technology license from Konarka, an early pioneer in this field. Efficiency of DSC cells has been

observed to be as high as 11% with production modules expected to reach an efficiency of about

5-6%.

COMPANY PROFILE

HISTORY


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Moser Baer India was founded in New Delhi in 1983 as a Time Recorder unit in technical

collaboration with Maruzen Corporation, Japan and Moser Baer Sumiswald, Switzerland.

In 1988, Moser BaerIndia moved into the data storage industry by commencing manufacturing

of 5.25-inch Floppy Diskettes. By 1993, it graduated to manufacturing 3.5-inch Micro Floppy

Diskettes (MFD).

In 1999, Moser BaerIndia set up a 150-million unit capacity plant to manufacture Recordable

Compact Disks (CD-Rs) and Recordable Digital Versatile Disks (DVD-Rs). The strategy forthe

optical media project was identical to what had successfully been implemented in the diskette

business - creating a facility that matched global standards in terms of size,technology, quality,

product flexibility and process integration. The company is today the only large Indian

manufacturer of magnetic and optical media data storage products, exporting approximately 85

percent of its production. Since inception, Moser Baerhas always endeavored to create its space

in the international market. Aiding the company in its efforts has been a carefully-planned and

sustainable business model - low costs, high margins, high profits, reinvestment and capacity

growth. Along the way, deep relationships have been forged with leading OEMs, withthe result

thattoday there are hardly any global technology brands in the optical media segmentthat MoserBaer is not associated with the company announced its foray into the Photovoltaic and Home

Entertainment businesses. In 2007, the IT Peripherals and Consumer Electronics division was

formed.

PROMOTORS

The difference between a good company and a great one lies in its core management team.

Moser Baer's Board is a classic example of just how a group of thought leaders, visionaries,

evangelists and technocrats can come together to galvanize a company to achieve excellence -


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and thattoo on a global scale. Meetthe people who provide the inspiration and guidance to make

it all happen for Moser Baer.

Deepak Puri

Managing Director

DeepakPuri provides strategic direction to the company. He is the driving force in

creating an environment of integrity by ensuring fair business practices and profound

respect for Intellectual Property Rights. It is his ceaseless quest for human capital

development that has helped steer the company along a continuous growth path. A

leading spokesman forthe Indian industry, Deepak Puri has never shied from speaking

his mind and sharing his opinions. He is also Chairman ofthe Electronics and Computer

Software Export Promotion council (ESC), a non-profit autonomous organization ofthe

Ministry ofInformation Technology, Government ofIndia. He holds a Master's Degree

in Mechanical Engineering from Imperial College, London, and is an alumnus of St

Stephens College and Modern School, New Delhi.

Ratul Puri

Executive Director

Ratul Puri joined Moser Baer in 1994 and has been Executive Director since 2001

Priorto assuming this role, Ratul was General Manager (Business Development). In this

capacity, he was instrumental in setting up plants for manufacturing Compact Disc-

Recordables (CD-Rs),the firstto come up in India. He has also played a pivotal role in

reinforcing Moser Baer's focus on maximizing shareholder value and in raising funds

from best-in-class investors. He has a degree in Computer Engineering from Carnegie

Mellon University, USA and did his schooling from St Columbus, New Delhi.

Nita Puri

Whole Time Director

Nita Puri is a co-promoter of Moser BaerIndia Ltd and a Whole-Time Director ofthe

Company. A graduate from Calcutta University, she has over three decades o

experience in managing businesses. As Director (Administration and HR), she has beenclosely involved withthe company's growth since its inception.


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Prakash Karnik

Director

Prakash Karnik was a Director at Electra Partners Asia Private Ltd, one of Asia's

leading private equity firms. An engineer from the Indian Institute of Technology

(Chennai) and a management graduate, he has over 25 years of experience in the

engineering and finance sectors. He has worked in senior positions in both government

and private sector organizations, including Jardine Fleming India Securities Ltd, Unit

Trust ofIndia and the Economic Development Corporation of Goa Ltd.

Rajesh Khanna

Director

(Nominee Warburg

Pincus Singapore

LLC)

Rajesh Khannahas been working withWarburg Pincus forthe last six years. He is an

MBA from the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad and a Chartered

Accountant. He earlier worked with leading finance and consulting firms such as

Citibank NA. He is now the Managing Director ofWarburg Pincus India Private Ltdand also serves on the Boards of Nicholas Piramal India Ltd, Max India Ltd, Max

Healthcare Institute Ltd and Max New York Life Insurance Company Ltd.

Bernard Gallus

Director

Bernard Gallus brings with him over four decades of experience in the internationa

technology and finance markets. He was earlier Managing Director and member ofthe

board of J Bosshard SA, Lausanne, later taken over by the manufacturing company W

Moser Baer AG, Switzerland.

Arun Bharat

RamDirector

Arun Bharat Ram is the Chairman and Managing Director of SRF Ltd. A graduate in

Industrial Engineering from the University of Michigan, USA, he began his career in

1967 withthe Delhi Cloth St General Mills Company Ltd, (now DCM Ltd). He went on

to set up SRF Ltd in 1971. In his businesses, he has strongly supported corporate

governance initiatives and professionalism. He has been on various government-

industry committees and is a former President of both the Confederation of Indian

Industries (CII) and the Association of Synthetic FiberIndustry.


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John Levack

Director

John Levackhas over 20 years of private equity experience with Electra and 3i Pic in

Asia and Europe, four years of which have been in India. Levack has a degree in

business administration from Bath University in the UK. He is a Director at Aksh

Optifibre Ltd, Zensar Technologies Ltd, Electra Partners Asia Ltd, Electra Partners

Mauritius Ltd, EP Asia Ltd, eTelecare International Inc. and RT Packaging Ltd.

Virander NathKoura

Director

Mr. V. N Koura has been inducted as an Additional Director ofthe Company since

29th September, 2006. Mr. Koura received his formal legal education at Lincoln's Inn

London and currently is a senior partner of Koura & Co., a leading firm of legal

consultants in India. He is also on the Board of Bharti Infotel Limited, National Cereals

Products Limited, Controls and Switchgear Contractors Limited and HCL Infosystems

Limited.

Vinayshil

GautamDirector

Dr. Vinayshil Gautam has been inducted as a Director of the Company w.e.f 12th

December, 2006. He was the first Director of India Institute of Management

(Khozikode) and the first Head Management Department at Indian Institute o

Technology (IIT), Delhi. He is currently the Dalmia Chair Professor of Management at

IIT, Delhi and coordinator ofthe Institute's Dalmia Research Programme Dr. Vinayshi

Gautam was a member of various significant committees of Government of India

including the Committee appointed to look into the efficiencies of promotiona

processes of 10 senior Positions in Government; Quinquennial review team of CMFRI

NAARM; Committee appointed to review the working of NSTEDB, etc. He is also on

the Board of J.KIndustries Ltd, Shivam Auto Tech Ltd, EXIM Bank, Steel Authority o

India, KEC International Limited.

Frank E.

FrankDangeard was Chairman and CEO of Thomson, a provider of digital video

technologies, solutions and services, from 2004 to early 2008. Earlier, he was Senior

Executive Vice President of France Telecom, a global telecommunications operator. He

is chairman or member of a number of boards or advisory boards of internationa

companies and non-profit organizations. Dangeard was educated in France and the


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Dangeard

Director

United States. He has been the recipient ofthe National Order ofthe Legion of Honour

(Chevalier),the highest decoration in France.

Viraj Sawhney

Director

Viraj Sawhney is a Principal ofWarburg Pincus India. He was earlier a consultant with

McKinsey & Company. His business experience spans a range of strategic and

operational issues across several industries.

VISION AND MISSION

Vision:

Touching every life across the globe throughhightechnology products and services"


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Mission:We will drive growth through our excellence in mass manufacturing.

We will move up the value chain through rapid development of technology, products and

services. We will leverage our relationships, distribution, cost leadership and "can do" attitude to

become a global market leader in every business.

Domains of Moserbaer Photovoltaic

Moserbaer

photovoltaic


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Value Chain for Polycrystalline Si technology

Polycrystalline Si PVThin Films


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Milestones


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1983 Established

1985 Production of 8.0"/5.25" Disks

1987 Production of 3.5" Disks

1998 ISO 9002 Certification

1999 Production of CD-R

2000 Production of CD-RW

2002 Completely Integrated Manufacturing

2003 Production of DVD-R Production of DVD-RW

ISO Certification for all Facilities

Launch of 'Moserbaer' Brand in Indian Market

Signed one of Largest Outsourcing Deals in Indian Manufacturing

2004 'Light scribe' Deal with HP HP Deal forIndia and SAARC Region

Contributing Member of Blu-Ray Disk Association

2005 ISO 14001 & OHSAS 18001 certification for Moser Baer plants. Commencement of Phase III of Greater Noida Plant

Announced Moser Baer Photovoltaic Ltd.

Received status of SEZ developer from Govt. ofIndia


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Announced a wholly owned subsidiary-Moser Baer SEZ

Signed MoU withIIT, Delhi

2006 The first company in the world to start volume shipments of HD DVD-R Signed Technology MoU withIT BHU

Patented technology approved by the Blu-ray Disc Association

In-house R&D Centre approved by Ministry of Science and Technology

Launched USB Flash drives

Forayed into entertainment space, enters Home Video market

2007 Acquired OM&T BV - a Philips' optical technology and R&D subsidiary Announced start oftrial run of solar photovoltaic cell production facility

Set up the world's largest Thin Film Solar Fab

Launched US$150 mn FCCBs

Moser Baer Photo Voltaic announced commercial shipment of solar

photovoltaic cells

Moser Baer Photo Voltaic announced US$880 million strategic sourcing tie-up

with REC Group

Forayed into PC peripherals market: Launches Optical Disk Drives (ODDs),

Headphones, Keyboards, Optical Mouse etc.

Launched Branded DVD Player

2009 Moser Baer plans 600 MW Thin Film PV capacity with an estimatedinvestment of over $ 1.5 bn

Moser Baer Pho

to Vol

taic announces s

tra

tegic sourcing

tie-up wi

thLDK Solar

Moser Baer announces successful trials of first Gen 8.5 Thin Film plant

Moser Baer gets the coveted blu-ray product verification

Moser Baer signs exclusive home video licensing deal with UTV Motion

Pictures


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Moser Baer launches a digital video processing facility in Chennai

Moser Baer secures customer sales orders of $500 million for solar modules

Global investors inject Rs. 411 crore into Moser Baer's solar photovoltaicbusiness

Moser Baer announces successful trials of first Gen 8.5 Thin Film plant

Moser Baer Photo Voltaic announces strategic sourcing tie-up with LDK Solar

Moser Baer plans 600 MW Thin Film PV capacity with an estimated

investment of over $ 1.5 bn

2010 Moser Baer launches sleek and stylish MP3 players Moser Baers thin film solar modules are now IEC certified

Moser Baerto set up one ofIndias largest rooftop solar PV installations in

Surat

Slim and Elegant Moser Baer TFT Monitor

Moser Baers thin film line ready for production of ultra-large solar modules


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Research Methodology


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PRIMARY OBJECTIVE

To do a comparative analysis of our technology with other prevailing and emerging

technologies and then use this comparative analysis to differentiate our thin film

technology and hence position it in the markets.

As the thin film technology is new in the market, it wanted to know the market potential of its

product. Research is done for analyzing the market and growth potential. Market research is

called the backbone of Marketing.

SECONDARY OBJECTIVE

y To perform a comparative analysis on basis of technology, market potential, cost and

demand.

y To prepare a customer satisfaction index survey for the prevailing Moserbaer

customers(Worldwide) in addition to knowing the pre sales consumer behavior through

survey form

y

To tap the Fortune 500 companies to be our potential customers in the future


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RESEARCH DESIGN

A research design specifies the methods and procedures for conducting the particular target

study. To analyze the market potential, we divided the research into three main categories

1. Exploratory research

2. Descriptive research

3. Causal research

Butthe nature of my research is exploratory research as it focuses on the discovery of ideas. Its

goal is to shed light on the real nature ofthe problem and to suggest possible solution and it

involves number of steps.

RESEARCH PLAN

Meaning of Research plan

After identifying and defining the problem as also accomplishing the relating task, researcher

must arrange his ideas in order and write them in the form of an experimental plan. It was the

sum total aboutthe planning of all the things to find outthe objective ofthe Research.

Developing the research plan

The next stage of marketing research calls for developing the most efficient plan for gathering

the needed information. Designing the research plan calls for decision on the data sources,

research approaches, research instrument, sampling plan and contact method. We segmented the

world on the basis of Zone and started working forthe project.


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DATA SOURCES

The next step is to determine t he sources of da ta to be used. As t here are two

me t hods of data collect ion.( i) Primary data

(ii) Secondary data

The work carried out in this project is totally based on secondary data.

Secondary data

Secondary data was gathered from Websites, newspaper, magazines, journals, etc. as well as

some from the company sources itself.

ANALYZE THE INFORMATION

The final step in the market research process is to extract findings from the collected data.

Analysis ofthe information was done withthe help of questionnaire whichhas been attached in

the appendix atthe end ofthe report.The information extracted from the interview data was augmented with an in-depth research of

technical literature, web sites,trade journals and discussions with industry veterans. Because of

the fast-growing nature ofthis industry, a lot ofthe research relied on information found on

company websites, in press releases and recent industry articles. Our database was updated

almost on a daily basis with new information about companies entering this dynamic industry.

We chose to not publishthe names ofthe firms and individuals who contributed to our survey to

protectthe confidentiality ofthe information thatthey provided. We greatly appreciate their

contribution and support.

Data Analysis and Findings


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SWOT Analysis Single crystal (c-Si)

Strengths:

1. Oldest and the most stabilized technology

2. Highest efficiency in PV market.

3. Good infrastructure

4. Synergy withthe IC industry

5. Largest scale of production

Weakness:

1. Large amount of Silicon

2. Comparatively higher cost of production

3. 3 step process, needs larger area for processing.

4. Less absorption of Solar light

5. Thickness of cells

6.

Involvement of Higher process temperatures

Opportunities:

1. Depletion of other resources of energy.

2. Abundance of sunlight as a useful source of energy.

3. Involvement of Defense services in Research and development in this field.

Threats:


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1. Si will get exhausted after some years due to extensive usage.

2. Thin film technologies and other upcoming technologies could pose a serious threat by using

either some other material apart from Si or using very less Si.

3. Non availability of large area of land in various countries.

SWOT ANALYSIS (A-Si)

Strengths:

y Low usage of raw material i.e. Silicon.

y Involve low process temperatures

y Use of low cost substrate material

y Moderate energy consumption and short energy paybacktimes

y Allow higher voltage lower current devices

y We can have variability of output voltages

y Substantial cost reduction potential

y More favorably adapted to operational conditions than C-Si

Weaknesses:

y lower efficiencies as compared to other Si technology

y Slow deposition rates

y Till date is useful for small scale i.e. up to 50 mw.

Opportunities:

y Thin films have long held a niche position in low power (


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Threats:

y

c- Si technology still a threat because ofhigher efficiencies and scale of production.

y CdTe and CIGS also posing a good threatto A-Si technology on the basis thatthese

compounds can be recycled atthe end oftheir life time and thus used again.

y As time progresses emerging technologies such as DSC would give serious competition to A-

Si technology both in terms of cost as well as efficiency.

Advantages of a-Si over c-Si

Technology is relatively simple and inexpensive for a-Si

For a given layerthickness, a-Si absorbs much more energy than c-Si

Much less material required for a-Si films, lighter weight and less expensive

Can be deposited on a wide range of substrates, including flexible, curved, and roll-away types

Overall efficiency of around 10%, still lowerthan crystalline silicon but improving

MARKETING


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REGULATORY POLICIES

A Feed-in Tariffis an incentive structure to encourage the adoption of renewable energy

through government legislation. The regional or national electricity utilities are obligated to

buy renewable electricity (electricity generated from renewable sources, such as solar

photovoltaics, wind power, biomass,hydropower and geothermal power) at market rates set by

the government.

The higher price helps overcome the cost disadvantages of renewable energy sources. The rate

may differ among various forms of power generation. A FiT is normally phased out once the

renewable reaches a significant market penetration, such as 20%, as it is not economically

sustainable beyond that point. Standard Offer Contracts for renewable power development were

in response to the state's investor-owned utilities behaviortoward small power producers.

In the effortto combat climate change,the increased deployment of renewable energy sources is

regarded by many as critical. One major obstacle to this adoption is the retail price of

electricity generated from renewable sources, which is typically more expensive than the retail

price of electricity generated from fossil fuels. A FiT is a revenue-neutral way of making the

installation of renewable energy more appealing. The electricity that is generated is bought by

the utility at above market prices. Thus, a small annual increase in the price of electricity per

customer can result in a large incentive for people to install renewable energy systems. This is

the essence of a FiT: it is a mechanism to instigate a change in the way power is produced,

gradually shifting from present polluting means to non-greenhouse methods. It is normally

phased out once the change has occurred. In California it covers the first 500 MW of generation

only. In Germany the FiT for rooftop solar photovoltaics is reduced by 8% in 2009 and 2010

and then by 9% annually from 2011 onwards, instead of by 5% per year. Schemes such as quota

incentive structures (renewable energy standards or Renewable Portfolio Standards)

and subsidies create limited protected markets for renewable energy. The supply of renewable

energy is achieved by obliging suppliers to deliver to consumers a portion of


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their electricity from renewable energy sources. In orderto do this they collect green electricity

certificates This is based on the theory of perfect competition where there is a multiplicity of

buyers and sellers in a market where no single buyer or sellerhas a big enough market share to

have a significant influence on prices. Although, in practice, markets are very rarely perfectly

competitive, the assumption is still that a relatively competitive market will produce a more

efficient use of resources compared to a system where prices are set by Government fiat.

In 2007, the Government of India announced the Semiconductor Policy that offers a capital

subsidy of 20% for manufacturing plants in SEZs and 25% for manufacturing plants outside

SEZs. The subsidy is on the condition thatthe net present value ofthe investment is at least Rs

1,000 crore. So far, there have been 12 applications for setting up solar PV plants, which

cumulatively could bring an investment of about Rs 66,394 crore (approximately US$ 16

billion).

Technology analysis:A-Si technology pros and cons

Category Pros Cons

Materials 1.Does not use expensive

crystalline silicon only silicon

1. Low efficiency

2. Exhibits efficiency


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alloys such as silane (SiH4)

2. No feedstock limitation as

silicon is one of the most

common materials on Earth

3. Multiple materials can be

deposited to capture wider

spectrum of light.

4. Reliable output even at low

light levels.

degradation overtime.

3. Requires multiple layers of

semiconductor material to

achieve higher efficiencies and

increased photo-stability.

Surface 1. Could use rigid or

flexible substrates.

2. Glass and stainless

steel substrate based

modules can be

warranted for 25 yrs.

3. Can be deposited as

both superstrate and

substrate on figurations

1. Generally does not use

very thin substrates so

the flexibility is

limited.

2. Plastic-based modules

have shorter lifetime.

Manufacturing 1.

Uses proven

manufacturing

processes that have

evolved overthe years.

2. Can be manufactured

in countries with low-

cost manufacturing

labor.3. Supported by large

companies with deep

R&D pockets and

manufacturing

1.

Manufacturing ofhigh-

efficiency (triple-

junction) cells can be

expensive.

2. Minimizing efficiency

degradation adds

manufacturing

complexity.


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expertise.

CdTe pros and cons

Category Pros Cons

Materials 1. CdTe is an excellent

PV material for

converting sunlight to

electricity.

1. Uses cadmium (Cd)

which, in elemental

form, poses a health

risk.


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2. Uses very little

Cadmium material

(one 8-square-foot

module contains (one

8-square-foot module

contains less cadmium

than one size-C NiCd

flashlight battery.

3. Research on CdTe as

PV materials started in

the early 1970s.

2. Uses telluride (Te)

which is a rare earth

material that could

cause a supply

bottleneck.

3. Manufacturing

facilities need to

control worker's

exposure to CdTe

compound.

4.

Modules need to be

properly recycled at

the end oftheir

lifetime to minimize

environmental impact of CdTe

Surface 1. Uses glass as a

superstrate which is

ideal for thin-film

deposition.

2. Lifetime of a glass-

based module can

reach 20 years.

1. Can only use glass as a

deposition surface.

2. If the glass breaks or

cracks,the module can

be rendered useless.

Manufacturing 1. largest thin-film PV

manufacturing in 2008.

2. presence of strong

leader in the industry

sub-segment (First

Solar).

3. It's been shown that it

could be produced

1. CdTe technology

cannot be

manufactured on

flexible substrates thus

limiting the types of

applications.

2. Manufacturing process

must contain


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efficiently in high

volumes.

4. at $/Watt it is the

lowest cost large scale

manufacturing process

atthe moment.

evaporative, water and

solid wastes.

3.

Can only be produced

in batch process as

opposed to roll-to-roll

process.

CIS/CIGS pros and cons

Category Pros Cons

Materials 1. Highest efficiency at

converting sunlight to

electricity among thin

films technologies)

2. CIGS compound is

robust and defect

1. Uses a rare-earth

element (Indium)

which could cause a

supply bottleneck.

2. Uses trace amounts of

cadmium (Cd), a rare


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tolerant.

3. Does not exhibit

efficiency degradation

overtime.

and toxic material.

Surface 1. Could use rigid or

flexible substrates.

2. Can be deposited on

very thin plastic

substrates using low

temperature processes.

3.

Glass and stainless

steel substrate based

modules can be

warranted for 20 years

1. Only substrate

configuration.

2. Flexible substrates are

less durable.

Manufacturing 1. Uses manufacturing

processes developed

and proven in other

industries.2. Potential to have the

lowest cost

manufacturing because

of roll-to-roll

capability.

3.Potential to offer the

lowest capital expenditure cost

(in $/W)

1. No large-scale manufacturing

yet

2. Complex manufacturing

process requires the deposition of

many thin-film layers.


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COST ANALYSIS

In general, manufacturing cost is driven by two factors: innovation and production volume. The

innovation effect can be broken down into product innovation followed by process innovation.

Product innovation in thin-film PV technologies focuses on increasing the efficiency ofthe solar

cell (i.e. the amount of power generated per meter square) using novel materials and solar

knowhow.

Process innovation tends to follow product innovation but only after a dominant design has

already emerged. Withthe exception of emerging (3rd generation) thin-film PV technology


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which is still in a product innovation phase, all otherthin-film PV technologies have a dominant

design (materials and surface) and have transitioned into the process innovation phase. This

process innovation phase focuses on reducing the manufacturing costs (ie. the cost per meter

square of producing a cell/module) using equipment scaling and process & yield control22.

Published and estimated figures for manufacturing cost include raw material cost, labor costs,

overhead and utilities and an annual capital recovery cost often estimated at around 14%.

CdTe technology, a mature thin-film PV technology, has the lowest manufacturing cost, as

demonstrated by industry leader First Solar which recently announced an average manufacturing

cost of $1.40/W.

Amorphous-Si technology is not far behind. Lowest manufacturing cost is estimated around

$1.50/W, but a-Si still has plenty of room to reduce its cost through process innovation. A

number of large equipment manufacturers such as Applied Materials, Moser Baer and Oerlikon

have entered this market focusing on increasing manufacturing volume and reducing

manufacturing cost by leveraging their proven technologies and processes from optical media

and flat panel display industry.

Because of its roll-to-roll capability,higher efficiency and the use ofthin, lightweight and

flexible substrates, CIGS has the potential to have the lowest manufacturing cost of all thin-film

technologies. Production volumes for CIGS are still very low and most manufacturers are not

disclosing their manufacturing costs.

New capital expenditure in thin-film PV (expressed in dollars perWatts) can be tracked using

company press releases announcing new plant installations and the corresponding financial

outlay. When estimating these figures,however, it is importantto distinguish between the capital

expenditures for large manufacturing plants (greater than 100 MW) and small manufacturing

plants (anything less than 100 MW). Economies of scale make a large plant capital expenditure

be significantly lowerthan the capital expenditures for smaller plants.

New capital expenditure data provided useful information in helping us estimate how quickly a

technology can ramp up to large-scale manufacturing. For small plants, both a-Si and CIGS


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technologies have comparable average capital expenditure costs, but for large plants, CIGS has a

significant advantage. This is mainly due to the fact that CIGS tends to use a roll-to-roll

manufacturing process that can produce large volumes at lower cost.

Expectations are that within 5 years, a-Si technology will overtake the CdTe technology as the

most mature thin-film technology with the lowest cost manufacturing driven by large volume

production and the entry of large players such Applied Materials and Oerlikon in this market.

However, a-Si's reign as the leader in lowest manufacturing may not last long. In the next 5-10

years, CIGS technology could become the lowest cost manufacturing technology because of its

lower manufacturing equipment cost and significantly lower ramp up costs due to roll-to-roll

capability. Despite this, amorphous-Si will remain the dominantthin-film technology in the thin-

film industry. Its transition to roll-to-roll manufacturing coupled with continuous innovation and

the simple fact that there is no feedstock limitation, could give a-Si the chance to become the

dominantthin-film technology ofthe future.

Thin film technology %of thin film market Module cost


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Amorphous Silicon(a-Si) 61


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The Photovoltaic world market grew in terms of production by more than 60% in 2010 to

approximately 5 GW. The market for installed systems also grew more than 60% to reach 2,825

MW, as reported by various consultancies. One could guess thatthis represents mostly the grid

connected Photovoltaic market. To what extent the off-grid and consumer product markets are

included is unclear. The difference of roughly 1,200 MW could therefore be explained as a

combination of unaccounted off-grid installations, consumer products and cells/modules in stock.

Like in the last years, Germany was the largest single market with 1,100 MW, followed by Spain

with 341 MW, Japan with 210 MW and the US with 205 MW. The Photovoltaic Energy

Barometer reported that Europe had a cumulative installed PV system capacity of 6 GW in 2008.

Despite the factthatthe European PV production grew again by almost 60% and reached 1040

MW,the size ofthe German market and the rapid increase ofthe Spanish marketto almost 341

MW did not change the role of Europe as a net importer of solar cells and/or modules. The

ongoing capacity expansions might change this in the future. European customers generally

secure their shipments through long-term supply contracts. Atthe end of 2007 total cumulative

installed capacity in 2008 stands at 1.9 GW, almost 3 GW short ofthe original 4.8 GW goal for

2010.

The fourth largest market was the USA with 205 MW

of PV installations, 152 MW

gridconnected. California and New Jersey account for almost 70% of the US grid connected PV

market. Despite new Federal States emerging as markets in 2007, 90% ofthe total US market

remains still in just five States. It is of interestto note,thatthe trend toward more non-residential

installation continues, due to the more generous Federal Investment Tax incentives for

commercial installations.


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Source: Annual PV report 2010

Worldwide PV Production [GW] and planned production capacity


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If all these ambitious plans can be realized, China will account for about 27% ofthe worldwide

production capacity of 42.8 GW, followed by Europe with 23%, Japan with 17% and Taiwan

with 14% . Ithas to be noted thatthe assessment of all the capacity increases is rather difficult,

as it is affected by the following uncertainties. The announcements ofthe increase in production

capacity in Europe,the US or China, often lackthe information about completion date compared

to Japan. Because ofthe Japanese mentality, where it is feltthat a public announcement reflects a

commitment, the moral pressure to meet a given time target is higher in Japan than elsewhere

where delays are more acceptable. Not all companies announce their capacity increases in

advance. Therefore,this report does nottake into account increases which are not communicated.

Announcements of completion of a capacity increase frequently refer to the installation of the

equipment only. It does not mean thatthe production line is really fully operational. This means,

especially with new technologies,thatthere can be some time delay between installation ofthe

production line and real sales of solar cells. In addition, the production capacities are often

announced,taking into account different operation models, e.g. maximum capacity (4 shifts 365

days/year), whereas others are only quoting capacity under real operation conditions. Production

capacities are not equal to sales and therefore there is always a noticeable difference between the

two figures, which cannot be avoided. Should the announced increases be realized, total

production capacities in 2012 could then stand at 42.8 GW

, of which 15 GW

could be thin films.


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Source: Solar buzz LLC


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Competitors:

In the past years, Germany was the largest single market with 1,100 MW, followed by Spain

with 341 MW, Japan with 210 MW and the US with 205 MW the Photovoltaic Energy

Barometer reported that Europe had a cumulative installed PV system capacity of 4.7 GW in

2007.

Despite the factthatthe European PV production grew again by almost 60% and reached 1040

MW,the size ofthe German market and the rapid increase ofthe Spanish marketto almost 341

MW did not change the role of Europe as a net importer of solar cells and/or modules. The

ongoing capacity expansions might change this in the future. The Japanese market saw a furtherdecline to 210 MW of new installations, 36% lowerthan in 2006. First, due to societal changes

and economic conditions, the detached-house market in Japan, the major market for residential

systems is experiencing a downward trend. Second,the strong demand for solar modules outside

of Japan and the strong Euro make it more attractive for Japanese companies to export their

products and vica versa make it less interesting for foreign companies to exportto Japan. Third,

in 2007 the silicon shortage led to a lower solar cell production at the Japanese market leader

Sharp. This, and the factthat European customers generally secure their shipments through long-

term supply contracts mighthave led to a shortage of solar modules in Japan. An indication for

this theory is the factthat Sekisui Homes one ofthe leading manufacturers of detached homes

in Japan who until recently was only installing Sharp solar systems is now also offering

systems from other companies. The fourth largest market was the USA with 205 MW of PV

installations. The major players in and around the world which are major competitors of

Moserbaer are:

First Solar: First Solar was formed in 1999 and launched production of commercial

products in 2002. First Solar has achieved the lowest manufacturing cost per watt in the

industry, $.98/watt forthe fourth quarter of 2008, breaking the $1 per watt price barrier. It is

the largest manufacturer ofthin film solar modules,having expanded manufacturing capacity

to an expected 735 MW in 2008; and with additional plants under construction, First Solar will

bring total expected capacity to more than 1 GW by the end of 2009.


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Sharp Corporation: Sharp started to develop solar cells in 1959 and succeeded in mass-

producing them in 1963. Since its products were mounted on "Ume", Japan's first commercial-

use artificial satellite, in 1974, Sharp has been the only Japanese makerto produce silicon solarcells for use in space. Another milestone was achieved in 1980, with the release of electronic

calculators equipped with single-crystal solar cells. Sharp aims to become a Zero Global

Warming Impact Company by 2010 as the Worlds Top Manufacturer of Solar Cells.

Q-Cells: Q-Cells AG was founded at the end of 1999 and is based in Thalheim, Sachsen-

Anhalt, Germany. Solar cell production started mid 2001 with a 12 MWp production line. In the

2008 2nd quarterly report, the company stated that the nominal capacity had increased to 630

MW by 30 June 2008 and should reach 800 MW in Thalheim/Germany and 520 MW in

Malaysia by the end of 2009. 2007 production was 389 MW, moving to the first place

worldwide.

Suntech: Suntech Power Co. Ltd. is located inWuxi. It was founded in January 2001 by Dr.

Zhengrong Shi and went public in December 2005. Suntech specializes in the design,

development, manufacturing and sale of Photovoltaic cells, modules and systems. In 2007

Suntech had a production of 327 MW and held 3rd place in the Top-10 list. The annual

production capacity of Suntech Power was 660 MW atthe end ofthe second quarter and is on

trackto increase to 1 GW by the end of 2008 and aims for 2 GW in 2010.

kyocera: In 2007, Kyocera had a production of 207 MW and is also marketing systems that

both generate electricity through solar cells and exploit heat from the sun for other purposes,

such as heating water. The Sakura Factory, Chiba Prefecture, is involved in everything from

R&D and system planning to construction and servicing and the Shiga factory, Shiga Prefecture,

is active in R&D, as well as the manufacturing of solar cells, modules, equipment parts, and

devices, which exploitheat. Like other Japanese manufacturers, Kyocera is planning to

increase its current capacity of 240 MWto more than 500 MW by 2010.

Sanyo: Sanyo commenced R&D for a-Si solar cells in 1975. 1980 marked the beginning of

Sanyos a-Si solar cell mass productions for consumer applications. Amorphous Silicon modules

for power use became available from SANYO in 1993 and in 1997 the mass production of HIT

solar cells started. In 2007 Sanyo had a production of 165 MW solar cells. The latest expansion


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plans foresee focus on the solar business and a rapid expansion from 260 MW in FY 2007 to 650

MW in 2010.

Sun power : SunPower was founded in 1988 by Richard Swanson and Robert Lorenzini to

commercialise proprietary high-efficiency silicon solar cell technology. The company went

public in November 2005. SunPower designs and manufactures high-performance silicon solar

cells, based on an interdigitated rear-contact design for commercial use. The initial products,

introduced in 1992, were high-concentration solar cells with an efficiency of 26%. SunPower

also manufactures a 22% efficient solar cell called Pegasus that is designed for nonconcentrating

applications.According to the 2nd Quarter 2008 results,the company

started site preparation for a 1 GW solar cell factory in Malaysia [Sun 2008a]. Production in

2007 was quoted with 150 MW.


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Market benchmarking to carry out competitor analysis

Source: Annual PV report 20101723 MW


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Graph 1: Top 10 Photovoltaic companies according to production in MW

The rapid expansion of solar cell manufacturing capacities and production volume in the

Peoples Republic of China and Taiwan is not yet reflected in a significant size ofthe respective

home markets. For 2008,the estimates ofthe Chinese and Taiwanese PV market are in

the order of 10 to 20 MW each. As a result, more than 98% ofthe Chinese and Taiwanese PV

production is exported. Another noteworthy development is the factthatthe market share ofthe

ten largest PV manufacturers together further decreased from 80% in 2004 to 57% in 2008. This

development is explained by the factthat an increasing number of solar cell manufacturers are

entering the market. The most rapid expansion of production capacities can be observed atthe

moment in China and Taiwan, but other countries like India, Malaysia and South Korea are

following the example to attract investment in the solar sector.


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Source: PV annual report 2010

PV Production Capacities (MW) 2006/7/8 and planned production capacity 2009/10/12


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Source: First solar

However, one should bear in mind that out ofthe ca. 100 companies, whichhave

announced their intention to increase their production capacity or start up production in the

field of thin films, only one fourth have actually already produced thin film modules on a

commercial scale.

For 2010, roughly 10.5 GW of thin film production capacities are announced, an increase of

almost 4 GW compared to the 2009 figures. Considering that at the end of year 2009 capacity

could eventually be transformed into production, First Solar and Sharp together would contribute

with about 1.5 to 2 GW, whereas the other existing producers would add about the same

capacity. Forthat reason, 3.5 GW production in 2010 are considered as quite certain, another 1

GW as possible. Despite the fact that only limited comparisons between the different worlds

regions are possible, the planned cell production capacities portray some very interesting

developments.First, the technology as well as the company distribution, varies significantly from region to

region. 40 companies are located in Europe, 27 in China, 19 in the US, 12 in Taiwan, 8 in Japan

and 10 elsewhere. The majority of 82 companies is silicon based. The reason is probably that in

the meantime there is a number of companies offering complete production lines for amorphous

and/or micro morph silicon. 19 companies will use Cu(In,Ga)(Se,S)2 as absorber material for


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theirthin-film solar modules, whereas 7 companies will use CdTe and 5 companies go for Dye &

other materials.

Source: Annual PV report 2010


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Recommendations


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Market segments

Ihave segmented the complete PV market as follows:

1.Grid-Tied Residential- small installations (less than 4kW) aimed at reducing the electricity

usage in residential dwellings. This is typically a roof-mounted installation.

2. Grid-Tied Commercial - larger installations (up to 100s of kW) for commercial buildings.

Like in the residential market, a typical installation is roof-mounted.

3. Grid-Tied Utility- large installations of solar farms (1 MW or larger) that provide electricity

to power utilities. Solar panels are typically installed on the ground and require a large area.

4. Off-Grid Applications- typically small installations (up to 100W) used in remote settings to

charge batteries and power small appliances. Small consumer products that incorporate solar

power fall in this category.

5. Special Applications - this category includes miscellaneous applications ranging from

powering space satellites to government & military applications and other custom, specialized

applications.

Thin-film PV competes in all these market segments with not only traditional PV, but also other

forms of renewable energy such as wind power. Some thin-film technologies are a better fit for

some ofthe market segments listed above. we presentthe target markets for eachtechnology as

color coded chart withthree levels:

* Primary market- the market where the technology has a best fit

* Secondary market-

market where the technology could compete effectively* Tertiary market- market where the technology could compete in the future

Thin film

technology

Grid tied

residential

Grid tied

commercial

Gris tied

utility

Special

applications

Off grid

applications


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Primary

secondary

Tertiary

We can make the following observations regarding the market segments forthin-film PV:

a-Si

CdTe

CIGS

Emerging


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* All thin-film PV technologies are targeting the Grid-Tied Commercial market segment (one

of the largest market segments), but the market is a strong focus for a-Si technology and

emerging technologies such as DSC.

* CdTe technology is well suited forGrid-Tied Utility market which is the focus for industry

leader, First Solar. Grid-Tied Commercial market also has good potential for CdTe technology.

A lack of flexible substrate options make it less suitable for Residential market, but CdTe makes

up for this handicap by the fact that it competes well in one of the largest market segments,

Grid-Tied Utility, which is projected to be a 30 GW market by 2015.

* Amorphous-Si technology is found in many Off-Grid applications in developing world

countries because of its low cost and low power. Grid-Tied Commercial applications in the

form of Building-Integrated PV (BIPV) are also an ideal market for a-Si because space is not a

constraint and therefore lower efficiency does not present a big handicap.

* Today's CIGS technology shows preponderance for Special Applications (which includes

Government, Military & Space applications) due to government grants and industry support from

various Governments and because the technology can be customized to fit a multitude of form

factors and shapes. In the future, CIGS will compete strongly in the Grid-Tied Residential

market because its higher efficiency allows it to be adapted to applications where space is a

legitimate constraint.


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New Applications

Compared withtraditional crystalline Si panels,thin-film PV panels generally have lower energy

conversion efficiencies and thus require a larger area to generate the same amount of power. In

applications where space is not a constraint,thin-film PV panels can be more economical than

traditional PV panels because oftheir lower cost. Solar energy farms and roof-top installations

(Grid-Tied Commercial and Utility) are therefore ideal markets forthin-film PV panels. Within

the commercial market segment, a new field of applications called Building Integrated

Photovoltaic (BIPV) is starting to emerge as an ideal application for thin-film PV. BIPV

applications aim to design and integrate PV panels into the building architecture by replacing

conventional building materials with PV panels that could serve as vertical facades, roofing

material, semi-transparent skylight systems or awnings. Because thin-film PV panels are less

expensive and more aesthetically pleasing,they are better suited for BIPV applications than their

crystalline Si counterparts. In addition, because thin-film PV can be deposited on flexible, but

durable substrates, it could be used as roofing material in residential applications with the dual

purpose of protecting the residence from the elements while generating power atthe same time.

Forthese reasons, BIPV is an exciting new field of applications forthin-film PV solar panels and

will stimulate a growth rate estimated as much as 60% through 2010.

Thin-film PV ability to be deposited on flexibility substrates is the other important feature that

enables a new set of applications which were not possible before with crystalline Si technology.

Besides the factthatthey could be produced in high volumes and at low cost, flexible PV cells

can be integrated into a variety of consumer products such as portable electronics or power

generating fabrics for structures such as tents, awnings and roofs. The roll-to-roll manufacturing

process of flexible cells allows manufacturers to customize the size ofthe solar cell to fit a range

of applications from the small consumer electronics to the large panels used in building

materials.


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Market Strategies

Analyzing the market segments from a technology strategy point of view, we can see that each

thin-film technology has advantages in different market segments. There isn't much overlapbetween market segments and therefore we see little competition between the differentthin-film

PV technologies, atthe moment. This situation may not remain the same fortoo long. Emerging

technologies like DSC could be disruptive for a-Si because they not only targetthe same market

segments, but could offer similar performance at lower cost. As the production volumes for

CIGS technology ramp up, it could start competing with a-Si in the Grid-Tied Commercial

market, although a better strategy may be to take on the Off-Grid Applications market where

CIGS has a better chance to compete withtraditional PV technology.

Althoughthe market picture suggests that, atthe moment,there is little competition among the

thin-film PV technologies, as they mature,they'll start competing with each other at some level.

More importantly, we should analyze the potential forthin-film PV to displace the traditional PV

technology in the market. Currently, thin-film PV technologies simply expand the existing

market. Whether it's through applications such as solar farms (which are relatively new), or

developing world applications or BIPV,thin-film PV technology has so far served to expand the

overall adoption of solar PV. What will happen when thin-film PV will become a substitute for

traditional PV? CIGS has the potential to displace traditional PV in the Residential market

because it will offer lower cost alternative at nearly the same conversion efficiency, but will

bring a new value proposition through its lightweight and flexibility characteristics. Likewise,

amorphous Si can expand beyond BIPV and begin to capture market share from traditional PV in

the Commercial market.

Opportunities in TF PV Market:


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Current Future Opportunities

Large projects and

utilitiesMost installations use

traditional PV because

ofhigh efficiency. But

some using CdTe

CIGS and a-Si are likely to see

more applications

as efficiencies rise. Organic and

hybrid technologies do not seem

likely to penetrate this sector

both because of efficiency issues

and stability issues

Commercial and

industrial building

applications

Some use of CdTe and a-

Si, especially in Germanyand Japan

All of the TF PV technologies

have some applications here.

This includes novel organic

materials which may be

integrated with wall, roofing and

window materials to maximize

the use of real estate/surfaces

Residentialbuildingapplications

Some use of CdTe and

possibly CIGS

Major opportunity for TF PV,

because its light weight makes it

highly suitable for self

installation. The ability to

integrated with other materials is

also an advantage. Rural areas in

developing nations may be

especially attracted to this

solution.

Consumer

electronicsa-Si is widely used in

calculators and in other

small consumer

electronics items, while

CdTe has been used in

the past

This seems to be the area that

some TF manufacturers using

organic materials are aiming at in

the belief that their low

efficiencies would not matter so

much. Some manufacturers

believe thatthere is really no


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market here, beyond some niche

solar battery charger sales

Military and

Emergency

Use PV including TF PV

to service remote

locations and on the

battlefield

The military continues to be an

active funder of TF PV

technology and is looking at

novel applications, such as solar

powered battlefield dress. Not

necessarily a big market, but

tends towards the leading edge.


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Bibliography

Books:

1. Hamakawa, Y. (Ed.), "Thin-Film Solar Cells - Next Generation Photovoltaics and Its

Applications", page 17-31


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2. Bradford, Travis and Maycock, Paul, "PV Technology Performance and Cost", page 224-228

3. Christensen, Clay, "The Innovator's Dilemma", pages 12-54

Magazine & Journals/ Newspaper:

1. Bucklin L. and Sengupta S. (1993), Organizing Successful co-marketing alliances, Journal ofMarketing, Volume 54, 37-55.

2. "Bright Prospects", The Economist, March 10th- 16th 2007 issue, page 22

3. Graetzel, Michael, presentation at MIT, March 23, 2007

4. Gellings, Ralf et al., "Only united are we strong", Photon International, July 2006 issue, pp.

80-89

5. Applied Materials, Press Release, June 2007

6. ATS (Automation Tooling Systems) Automation, Annual Report 2008

7. BP Solar, Press Release, 16 July 2007

8. Von Roedern, Bolko, "PV Specsheet Rating", February 2007

9. " Macor, Michael, San Francisco Chronicle

Internet:

1. http://www .eere.energy.gov, Accessed May 3, 2009

2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semiconductor, Accessed May 3, 2009

3. www.californiasolarcenter.org, Accessed May 3, 2009

4. http://www.powerfilmsolar.com/technology/index.htm, Accessed May 15, 2009

5. http://www.nrel.gov/pv/cdte/, Accessed May 19, 2009

6. http://www.sfgate.com/cgibin/ object/article?f=/c/a/2007/03/04/MNG2EOF85M1 .DTL&o=4,

Accessed May 24, 20097. http://firstsolar.com/environment cdte.php, Accessed May 28, 2009

8. http://www.nrel.gov/pv/cdte/cadmium facts.html, Accessed May 30, 2009

9. http://www.nrel.gov/pv/thin film/docs/kaz best research cells.ppt, Accessed June 3, 2009

10. www.globalsolar.com/technology.htm, Accessed June 7, 2009


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11. www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/reinsider/story;jsessionid=CC52AA008F8B45

11820D723933B 1C970?id=47178, Accessed June 13, 2009

12.www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/reinsider/story;jsessionid=CC52AA008F8B4511

820D723933B 1 C970?id=47178, Accessed June 14, 2009

13. http://www.appliedmaterials.com/news/pr2007.html?menuID=6, Accessed June 15, 2009


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Appendix/ Annexure


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Questionnaire for studying pre sales consumer behavior


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Database collection for tapping the fortune 500 companies


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Moserbaer - Copy

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Transcript of Moserbaer - Copy