Modeling the Regional Economic and Social Impact of Marine Pollution in Southern California...
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Transcript of Modeling the Regional Economic and Social Impact of Marine Pollution in Southern California...
Modeling the Regional Economic and Social Impact of Marine Pollution inSouthern California
Principal Investigators: Michael Hanemann, Linwood Pendleton, and David Layton
Participating Universities: University of California at Berkeley, University of Southern California, University of
California at Davis
Sponsoring Agencies:Federal
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Damage Assessment and Special Programs) Minerals Management Service
StateState Water Resources Control BoardCalifornia Department of Fish and Game (OSPR)
RegionalSanta Monica Bay Restoration ProgramSouthern California Coastal Water Research Program
Research Goals: Develop a Model of Beach Choice,
incorporating:Travel and Time Costs (and expenditures)Beach AmenitiesWater QualitySubstitution Possibilities (Time & Space)
Research Goals: Determine the Economic Impact Due to:
Changes in Water QualityBeach PostingsBeach Closures(Amenity Management)
Research Goals: Measure Economic Impacts on:
The Well-being of Beach GoersLocal Expenditures
The Essentials:Beach InventoriesScreener SurveyYear Long Panel Survey
Year 1: Focus on beaches from San Onofre to County Line BeachYear 2: Extend focus north to San Luis Obispo
An Inventory of Beach Attributes: GIS
Beaches Covered County Line
Santa Monica
Venice
Hermosa
Huntington
Newport
Laguna
San Onofre
From Counties in Stage 1
Beaches Covered San Simeon State
Pismo State
Goleta
Carpenteria City
La Conchita
Emma Woods State
Oxnard Shores
Thornhill Broome
From Counties added in Stage 2
An Inventory of Beach Attributesstart (south/west) channel island views (1/0) marina (1/0) ranger/lifeguard station
stop (north/east) commercial stores (1/0) oil pumps (1/0) rivers (1/0)
abut to natural area (1/0) concerts (1/0) oil rigs (1/0) roadside parking (1/0)
beach access by foot (1/0) concession stands (#) parking fee ($/day) sandy/rocky
beach access from parking lot (1/0)
condos/hotels (1/0) pier (1/0) showers (1/0)
beach access from street (1/0)
distance to major road (km)
playground (1/0) sidewalk (1/0)
beach club (#) diving (1/0) power/sewage plant (1/0)
stormdrains (#)
beachfront housing (1/0) dogs allowed (1/0) public facilities (1/0) surfing (1/0)beachside restaurant (#) fire pits (#) public parking (1/0) tarballs (1/0)bike/skate rentals (1/0) fishing (1/0) public phones tidepools (1/0)
bikepath (1/0) harbor (1/0) public restroom (#) volleyball nets (#)
camping (1/0) lifeguard stations (#) public transportation (1/0)
volleyball tournaments (1/0)
Stage 1: Los Angeles Orange County San Bernadino Riverside
Stage 2:Los AngelesOrange CountySan BernadinoRiversideVenturaSanta BarbaraSan Luis Obispo
Beach Goers Covered: Counties Surveyed
Preliminary Results: Screener SurveySample Overview
Surveyed Potential Participants (Beach Users)
Accepted Participation in the Study
Declined Participation
Non Users
1761 984 787 197 777
% of those Surveyed 56.87 44.69 11.19 44.12% of Beach Users NA 79.98 20.02 NA
Screener Survey: Other ResultsDemographics
Beach Users in
StudyBeach Users that Declined
Non-Beach Users
Median Family Income
$50-60000 $50-60000 $20-30000
Less than 9th 2.1 4 4.8
9th to 12th 4.2 3.6 6HS graduate 19.2 18.8 27.4Some college 34.6 30 26.4Bachelor’s 24.9 26.9 17.9Grad/Prof. 14.9 13.7 8Declined 0.1 3 9.5
[2] Year 1989. Source = U.S. Bureau of the Census
[1] Year 2000. Source: County of San Bernardino Department of Economic and Community Development (DECD) (http://www.co.san-bernardino.ca.us/ecd/pdfs/2000DemoPro.pdf). Four county totals compiled by DECD from various sources.
Percent Completed Each Level of Education
Preliminary Results: Panel Survey
1st Trip in 8/9 2000
2nd Trip in 8/9 2000
Weighted Average Expenditure
observations 277 134Parking $7.06 na $7.06Food $12.73 $15.45 $14.09Beach Supplies $2.17 $0.91 $1.54Rentals $0.72 $0.77 $0.74Fishing $0.07 $0.04 $0.05Total Shopping $8.88 $7.07 $7.97
Average Total Expenditures $31.63 $24.24 $31.47
80 million
$2.5 billion
Average Expenditures
Visitors to Beaches in LA and OC in 2000
Rough Estimate (Overestimate) of Expenditures
Spring Summer Fall Spring Summer Fall1998 NA 3,193,008 815,827 381,898 1,497,542 431,6451999 759,731 3,012,545 684,228 383,651 1,216,503 282,9042000 1,102,640 2,939,177 623,030 317,768 1,233,953 249,605
Rough (overestimate) of lost expenditures1999 -$8.84 -$6.45 -$13.77 -$7.292000 -$12.44 -$9.45 -$3.14 -$12.92 -$8.92
Huntington City Beach Huntington State Beach
45% went to beach less, 14% stopped going to HB
Preliminary Results:The State of California and the Regional Water Quality Board are currently investigating methods to clean up the coastal waters in Santa Monica Bay and Orange County. Under the new program, beaches might still be posted because of stormwater problems, but beach closings from sewer spills would be eliminated in Los Angeles and Orange Counties.
If the program is approved, it would be paid for by an annual sewer surcharge. The voters would have to approve such a surcharge. The sewer surcharge would cost a household like yours about $[X1] to $[X2] per year, depending on the final design of the system. If the cost was $[X] would you vote for the program?
Results of the Willingness To Pay ?$/year sewer
taxPercentage Yes Percentage No
$10 88% 12%$25 86% 14%$35 82% 18%$50 74% 26%$75 72% 28%
$100 66% 34%$150 60% 40%
What The Model Will Do:
A Workable model that will predict and value
Beach VisitationEconomic Well-beingExpenditures
For a variety of scenarios concerning changes in
Beach AmenitiesTravel CostsWater Quality Beach Closures
Uses of Interest to the Coastal Commission
Valuing Public vs. Private AccessValuing RemotenessValuing Means of AccessValuing Acquisition of New Public BeachesValuing Loss of AccessValuing Beachside Development
www.uscbeach.organd
www.uscfish.org