Modeling the Effects of Diversions: Can the Biology, Data, and People

Keep Up with the Computers?

Kenneth Rose Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences

Louisiana State University

Introduction

• Three examples of “new” modeling: – Salinity – Fish movement – Food web responses

• Best practices for modeling fish responses

to restoration

Example 1

Example 1 • 100 m cells • 1.3 million elements • 2-D • 5 sec time step • 3/20 to 12/31 2002 • Super-computer

• Actual 2003

• 300 m3/sec when MR in Baton Rouge > 4m

• Actual 2008

• 142 m3/sec

Example 2

FVCOM Application: Breton Sound Estuary

Hydrodynamics and salinity response to freshwater diversion Impact of pulsed re-introduction of Mississippi River freshwater on

displacement and salinity stress of fish species

Huang et al., ECSS (2011)

FVCOM-Breton Sound

Fish Movement

• Modified particle-tracking

• Velocities determined by behavior rather than water velocities

• Event-based algorithm – Game theoretic model – Anderson (2002); Watkins and me (2013)

Baseline

Restoration

Oil Spill

Simulations

• 91 days: April 1 to July 1, 2010

• Fish: – 20 cm – Bay anchovy (corroboration, not shown) – Low-salinity (2 to 4) – Intermediate salinity (15 to 20)

0 = default 1 = tactical high salinity 2 = strategic high salinity 3 = tactical low salinity 4 = strategic low salinity 5 = tactical shallow depth 6 = strategic shallow depth.

Intermediate salinity fish Oil Spill diversion

Random + Transport Random only

Restoration pulse

Oil

Spi

ll B

asel

ine

Res

tora

tion

Example 3: CASM

• Bioenergetics-based growth in an aquatic food web model

• Producers: dBP /BPdt = Photosynthesis – Photorespiration – Dark Respiration – Sinking – Natural Mortality – Grazing

• Consumers: dBC/BCdt = {Consumption - (Egest+Excrete+SDA) – Respiration – Natural Mortality – Predation}*hmod

f(T): f(I): f(N): hmod:

Temperature Light Intensity Nutrient Conc. Salinity & Turbidity

1.0

0.0

CASM Approach for Barataria

• 30 species/functional groups in the food web

• 18 CASM food webs set up on the hydro model grid

• Daily time step simulated over single years

• CASM inputs are averaged daily values from field data and cell outputs from the hydro model

• Environmental inputs modify producer and consumer processes in food web

Nutrients

Diatoms

Chlorophytes

Cyanophytes

BenthicDiatoms

Benthic Chlorophytes

Benthic Cyanophytes Water DOC Water POC

Sediment POC

Sediment DOC

Bacterioplankton

Sediment Bacteria

Zoobenthos

Zooplankton

Gulf Killifish

Brown Shrimp Adult

White Shrimp Adult

Atlantic Croaker

Gulf Menhaden

Adult

Blue Crab Adult

Sheepshead

Blue Catfish

Gulf Menhaden Juvenile

Bay Anchovy

Brown Shrimp Juvenile White Shrimp

Juvenile

Black Drum

Striped Mullet

Red Drum Juvenile

Red Drum Adult Largemouth

Bass Sea Trout Adult

Sea Trout Juvenile

Blue Crab Juvenile Oysters

Oyster Spat

Sunfish

Nutrients

Diatoms

Chlorophytes

Cyanophytes

BenthicDiatoms

Benthic Chlorophytes

Benthic Cyanophytes Water DOC Water POC

Sediment POC

Sediment DOC

Bacterioplankton

Sediment Bacteria

Zoobenthos

Zooplankton

Gulf Killifish

Brown Shrimp Adult

White Shrimp Adult

Atlantic Croaker

Gulf Menhaden

Adult

Blue Crab Adult

Sheepshead

Blue Catfish

Gulf Menhaden Juvenile

Bay Anchovy

Brown Shrimp Juvenile White Shrimp

Juvenile

Black Drum

Striped Mullet

Red Drum Juvenile

Red Drum Adult Largemouth

Bass Sea Trout Adult

Sea Trout Juvenile

Blue Crab Juvenile Oysters

Oyster Spat

Sunfish

Example Habitat Modifiers

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.6

0.25

3.25

6.25

9.25

12.2

5

15.2

5

18.2

5

21.2

5

24.2

5

27.2

5

30.2

5

33.2

5

Hab

itat M

od

Salinity

Brown Shrimp - YOY

Myrtle Grove MRGO Observed CPUE (scaled)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

0.25

3.25

6.25

9.25

12.2

5

15.2

5

18.2

5

21.2

5

24.2

5

27.2

5

30.2

5

33.2

5

Hab

itat M

od

Salinity

Largemouth Bass

Myrtle Grove MRGO Observed CPUE (scaled)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0.1

0.5

0.9

1.3

1.7

2.1

2.5

2.9

3.3

3.7

4.1

4.5

4.9

5.3

5.7

Hab

itat M

od

Secchi Depth (m)

Brown Shrimp - YOY

Myrtle Grove Observed CPUE (scaled)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

0.1

0.5

0.9

1.3

1.7

2.1

2.5

2.9

3.3

3.7

4.1

4.5

4.9

5.3

5.7

Hab

itat M

od

Secchi Depth (m)

Largemouth Bass

Myrtle Grove Observed CPUE (scaled)

10 km 10 km

18 CASM

Stations

CASM Polygons on Hydrodynamic Grid

i

Example Baseline Diets Bi

omas

s Co

nsum

ed (g

C/m

2 )

Day of Year

Periphyton

Zoobenthos

POC White Shrimp

Zooplankton

Bay Anchovy

Phytoplankton

Best Practices Proposed Best Modeling Practices for Assessing the Effects on Fish of Ecosystem Restoration and other

Futures Scenarios

K.A. Rose, S. Sable, S. Yurek, D. L. DeAngelis,

J. C. Trexler, W. Graf, D. Reed

• Evolved from a report done for CPRA

Why?

• Large-scale restoration – Increasing – Expensive – Controversial – Necessary

• Often, gravitates to fish and models

Klamath controversy continues An agreement to remove four dams has been reached, but barriers remain

Klamath River: A Big Dam Controversy Finally Resolved

Whistleblower is taking his case to the public

Paul Houser, the Bureau of Reclamation’s former scientific integrity adviser, says he was fired for voicing concerns that the decision to remove four Klamath River dams is being based on politics and money not science. He spoke at a Tea Party meeting Sunday in Klamath Falls.

Klamath Propaganda: Who do you believe?

Schemes

• Many have been suggested

• FAO, ACOE, papers

• We focus on fish and restoration – Steps – Concepts – Case studies

13 Concepts • Example: Scaling

Dickey (2003))

13 Concepts

• Example: Nonequilibrium Theory, Stability, and Recruitment

Our Strategy

• Combine steps with concepts

• Illustrate key steps and concepts: – Everglades – Colorado River (Glen Canyon Dam) – Planning for the Louisiana 2017 Master Plan

Concluding Remarks

• Example 1 (Salinity) – data

• Example 2 (fish movement) – biology

• Example 3 (food web) – data and biology

• Best Practices – people

Acknowledgements Salinity Funded in part by the NOAA/CSCOR Northern Gulf of Mexico Ecosystems and Hypoxia Assessment Program under award NA09NOS4780230 to LSU Dubravko Justic, Haosheng Huang, Anindita Das Fish Movement Funded in part by Northern Gulf Institute Grants 09-LSU-02 and 10-BP-GRI-LSU-01 to LSU Dubravko Justic, Haosheng Huang, Kim de Mutsert Food web responses Funding provided by USACE/USFWS via Atkins Global Shaye Sable, Kate S. Watkins, Erol Karadogan (KAR not a co-author)

Best Practices Funded by CPRA of Louisiana under Cooperative Endeavor Agreement 2503-12-58 with The Water Institute of the Gulf Shaye Sable, S. Yurek, Don DeAngelis, J. C. Trexler, Will Graf, Denise Reed