Modeling Project

by

Danielle Rouleau

May 7, 2002

“Bad” Ozone Formation

Urban or photochemical smogO2 + O O3

VOCs + NOx + sunlight smog

VOCs or hydrocarbons: solvents, fuels, chemicals

NOx: fossil fuels

Sources of NOx emissions

20%

51%

17%

12%industrial

automotive

gas pow ered law nequipment, aircraft,locomotives

gas stations

Sources of VOC Emissions

8%

31%

11%

50%

industrial

automotive

gas pow eredlaw n equipment,aircraft,locomotivesgas stations

Health Concerns

Irritant

Respiratory Problems

More problematic for elderly & children

Headaches

Name Original Value Final Valuek_3 0.001 0.000463578k_12 2 1.773671976k_21 0.1 0.355285012kT 2 4.599103445eta 30 29.93339113J 0.2 0.470047227

Calibration Results

9223 SSE value

concentration versus time

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 2 4 6

time (hours)

co

nc

en

tra

tio

n (

pp

b)

NO

NO2

O3

PAN

O3 observed

Ozone Model Graph

probability distribution

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

AQI

prob

abili

ty

St. Louis AQI Probability Distribution

probability of AQI falling within each Health Condition

00.10.20.30.40.50.6

Good 0-50

Moderate51-100

Unhealthyfor some101-150

Unhealthy+151

percent

St. Louis AQI Probability Distribution

How to Model AQI for Distant Locations

Meteorological: temperature, precipitation, pressure

Wind: speed and direction

Topography variations between the locations

Dispersion equations