Modeling of Future DPRK Energy Paths (Draft)
description
Transcript of Modeling of Future DPRK Energy Paths (Draft)
1
Modeling of Future Modeling of Future DPRK Energy Paths DPRK Energy Paths
(Draft)(Draft)
Dr. David F. Von HippelDr. David F. Von HippelNautilus Institute Senior AssociateNautilus Institute Senior Associate
Prepared for the “DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study Group MeetingGroup Meeting”, Stanford University, California
June 26 - 27, 2006
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
DPRK ENERGY PATHS: OUTLINE DPRK ENERGY PATHS: OUTLINE OF PRESENTATIONOF PRESENTATION
Preparation and Analysis of Energy Paths for the DPRK—National and Regional Goals and philosophy in preparing paths Overall Approach and Scope
Descriptions of Paths Considered “Recent Trends” Path “Redevelopment” Path “Sustainable Development” Path “Regional Alternative” Path
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
DPRK ENERGY PATHS: OUTLINE DPRK ENERGY PATHS: OUTLINE OF PRESENTATIONOF PRESENTATION
Selected Details of Modeling Approach by Path Selected Draft Results of Analysis of Future
Energy Paths for the DPRK Energy Demand Fuel Supply/Transformation Energy Imports and Exports Costs Environmental Emissions
Initial Lessons Learned from Analysis, and Next Steps in Analysis of Energy Futures for the DPRK
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
PREPARATION AND ANALYSIS PREPARATION AND ANALYSIS OF DPRK ENERGY PATHSOF DPRK ENERGY PATHS
Goals of Paths Analysis Assemble plausible, internally-consistent
alternative energy paths for the DPRK, based on the best information available
Explore, in a quantitative manner whenever possible (but not exclusively) relative energy security implications of different paths, including implications of NEA energy sector cooperation
Use energy paths as focus, starting point for discussions of how regional/other actors might assist in sustainable re-development of DPRK energy sector
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
PREPARATION AND ANALYSIS PREPARATION AND ANALYSIS OF DPRK ENERGY PATHSOF DPRK ENERGY PATHS
Philosophy in Paths Preparation/Evaluation Design paths that are plausible, and, under the right
conditions, potentially achievable At the same time, paths shown are not intended in
any way to judge what should happen Paths are built upon best, most internally-consistent
DPRK information we can find, but there are undoubtedly many inaccuracies in the analysis
We look forward to working with DPRK colleagues to improve analysis, make more applicable
Paths are therefore a starting point for further discussion and analysis
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
PREPARATION AND ANALYSIS PREPARATION AND ANALYSIS OF DPRK ENERGY PATHSOF DPRK ENERGY PATHS
Overall Approach in Paths Preparation/Evaluation Start with DPRK LEAP dataset that includes several
paths evaluated briefly in previous work Update data set to reflect most recent Nautilus
estimates of 1990 - 2005 DPRK energy use (overall analysis period for paths, 1990 to 2030)
Develop overall “themes” for several (4 -5 or more) paths to be evaluated
Identify specific assumptions for use in implementing the themes within LEAP
Modify paths so that all paths have the same 2006 energy picture
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
PREPARATION AND ANALYSIS PREPARATION AND ANALYSIS OF DPRK ENERGY PATHSOF DPRK ENERGY PATHS
Overall Approach in Paths Preparation/Evaluation Prepare demand-side data entries (and document
assumptions in Excel workbook) Enter demand-side assumptions in LEAP De-bug demand-side datasets Prepare approximate supply-side data entries (and
document in Excel workbook) Enter supply-side assumptions in LEAP, calculate, and
modify parameters so that supply and demand balance Enter cost and environmental data for all paths Run all paths, check results, debug, re-run, and
evaluate relative demand, transformation, cost, environmental results of paths
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup 8
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
DPRK Energy Paths ConsideredDPRK Energy Paths ConsideredPOLITICAL STALEMATE IS….
NOT RESOLVED RESOLVED
“RECENT TRENDS” CASE: Economy opens a very little, aid flows modest, infrastructure erodes
“COLLAPSE” CASE: Economy and regime fails (not quantitatively modeled)
“REDEVELOPMENT” CASE: Revitalization, re-mechanization, infrastructure upgraded
“SUSTAINABLE DEV.” CASE: Redevelopment plus emphasis on energy efficiency, renewables
“REGIONAL ALTERNATIVE” CASE: Redevelopment plus regional projects
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
DPRK ENERGY PATHS DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDEREDCONSIDERED
“Redevelopment” Path Used as National Reference path for DPRK Current political stalemate solved within next few
years, DPRK receives international assistance/cooperation in redevelopment
Industrial sector is revitalized, but mostly not rebuilt as it was before More iron and steel from scrap, efficiency improvements
in heavy industry sectors Industrial restructuring, with emphasis on industries such
as textiles, fertilizer Natural gas begins to be used in industry ~2015
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
DPRK ENERGY PATHS DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDEREDCONSIDERED
“Redevelopment” Path (continued) Considerable increase in new light-industrial
production (IT, auto parts, joint ventures…) Increase in diesel, electricity use for light industry
Agricultural sector re-mechanized Cropped area decreases, but electricity, oil use in
agriculture increases (coal/biomass use decreases) Increase in residential electricity consumption Commercial sector expands rapidly Transport sector, particularly personal transport,
expands markedly
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
DPRK ENERGY PATHS DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDEREDCONSIDERED
“Redevelopment” Path (continued) Investment in new electricity infrastructure
New coal, gas combined-cycle, small hydro Some rehabilitation of older plants, particularly
hydro; existing coal plants retired over time Simpo reactors completed 2013 (export power)
Re-investment in East Coast refinery Natural gas, first as LNG, begins to play a role in
powering industry, electricity, cities starting ~2012 Smaller LNG terminal built (Nampo?), part of output
exported
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDERED
“Recent Trends” Path Assumes that current political difficulties remain,
or are addressed only very slowly DPRK economy opens a very little, aid flows
modest, infrastructure erodes Very gradual increase in industrial output Transport activity increases slowly
Civilian auto transport grows most Residential energy demand increases slowly
Electricity gradually more available Some agricultural re-mechanization, incr. inputs
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
DPRK ENERGY PATHS DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDEREDCONSIDERED
“Recent Trends” Path (continued) Transmission and distribution losses remain high 10 MW of small hydro power plants added/yr Total capacity at existing hydro and oil-fired power
plants changes little over time Coal-fired capacity meets net electricity demand after
hydro, oil-fired plant output factored in Simpo nuclear reactors not completed Oil/oil products imported (except HFO) at year
2000 levels West Coast refineries continue to operate
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
DPRK ENERGY PATHS DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDEREDCONSIDERED
“Sustainable Development” Path Same energy services as “Redevelopment” Path
—with same demographic assumptions, economic output—but…
Applies energy efficiency, renewable energy, other measures, in an aggressive fashion Upgrading of industrial infrastructure goes above
average standards to high-efficiency international standards
Rapid phase-out of existing coal-fired power plants. Earlier addition of LNG (liquefied natural gas) terminal
and gas CC (combined cycle) generating plants
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
DPRK ENERGY PATHS DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDEREDCONSIDERED
“Sustainable Development” Path (continued) Costs
Cost estimates included for all demand end-uses, transformation processes, and fuels whose use changes relative to the Redevelopment case
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
DPRK ENERGY PATHS DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDEREDCONSIDERED
“Regional Alternative” Path Demand-sector Modifications
As a result of regional cooperation, efficiency improvement targets reached two years earlier at costs 10% less than in Sustainable Development path
Transformation-sector Modifications Gas pipeline from RFE begins operation in 2011; 3% of
gas used in DPRK initially, 10% by 2020, 15% by 2030 DPRK gets $10 million/yr “rent” for hosting the pipeline Larger LNG facility installed (also shared with ROK) Power line from the Russian Far East through the Participation in regional cooperative activities in energy
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
DPRK ENERGY PATHS DPRK ENERGY PATHS CONSIDEREDCONSIDERED
“Regional Alternative” Path (continued) Transformation-sector Modifications (continued)
Cooperation in renewable energy technologies yield earlier deployment,10% reduction in cost of wind, small hydro technologies
Last of existing coal-fired plants retired by 2020 Sustainable Development/Regional Alternative
Path Costs Cost estimates included for all demand end-uses,
transformation processes, and fuels whose use changes relative to the Redevelopment case
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup 18
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
DPRK ENERGY PATHS: DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DRAFT RESULTSSELECTED DRAFT RESULTS
Final Energy Use by Fuel: Redevelopment Case
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Mill
ion
GJ
VEGETAL WASTES RESIDUALFUELOILOTHER PETRO PROD NATURAL GASLPGBOTTLED GAS KEROSENEJETFUELHYDROGEN HEAT DISTRICTGASOLINE FIREWOODELECTRICITY DIESELGAS OILCommercial Wood COKING COALCOKECOAL AVG DOMES. CHARCOALAVIATION GAS
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup 19
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
DPRK ENERGY PATHS: DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DRAFT RESULTSSELECTED DRAFT RESULTS
DPRK Total Final Electricity Use by Path
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 1996 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
TW
h
Redevelopment
Recent Trends
Sustainable Development
Regional Alternative
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DRAFT RESULTSDRAFT RESULTS
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DRAFT RESULTSDRAFT RESULTS
Reserve Margin by Path: DPRK Electricity Sector
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Pe
rce
nt
Sustainable DevelopmentRegional Alternative TotalRedevelopment CaseRecent Trends Case
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DRAFT RESULTSDRAFT RESULTS
Generation Capacity Summary: Recent Trends Path
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
MW
Existing Coal Existing Oil
Large Hydro Small Hydro
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DRAFT RESULTSDRAFT RESULTS
Generation Capacity Summary: Redevelopment Path
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
MW
Existing Coal Existing OilExpanded Oil Large HydroKEDO LWR New CoalSmall Hydro Oil CCGas CC Wind Power
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
DPRK ENERGY PATHS: DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DRAFT RESULTSSELECTED DRAFT RESULTS
Generation Capacity Summary: Sustainable Development Path
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
MW
Existing Coal Existing OilExpanded Oil Large HydroKEDO LWR New CoalSmall Hydro Oil CCGas CC Wind PowerIGCC
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup 25
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
DPRK ENERGY PATHS: DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DRAFT RESULTSSELECTED DRAFT RESULTS
Global Warming Potential by Case
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Mill
ion
To
nn
es
CO
2 E
qu
iv. Sustainable Development
Regional Alternative Total
Redevelopment Case
Recent Trends Case
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup 26
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
DPRK ENERGY PATHS: DPRK ENERGY PATHS: SELECTED DRAFT RESULTSSELECTED DRAFT RESULTS
Relative Cost (NPV) Relative to Redevelopment Case
($2,000)
($1,500)
($1,000)
($500)
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
Demand Transformation Resources Total Net Costs
Mill
ion
US
D (
Ne
t P
res
en
t V
alu
e)
Sustainable Development Case
Regional Alternative Case
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup 27
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
LESSONS LEARNED/NEXT STEPS LESSONS LEARNED/NEXT STEPS IN PATHS ANALYSISIN PATHS ANALYSIS
Lessons learned: Significant cost, environmental benefits to helping
DPRK achieve sustainable development/regional alternative-type paths
Next Steps Comprehensive energy security analysis Evaluate alternative nuclear energy paths Engage DPRK delegations in modeling exercises
(requiring capacity and database building….)
DPRK Energy Expert Study DPRK Energy Expert Study GroupGroup 28
D. Von Hippel 6/2006
THANK YOU!THANK YOU!