MISSION POSSIBLE - IETA Media Files/Dec7/SE16 (3).pdfIn its new report “Mission Possible”, the...

MISSION POSSIBLEREACHING NET-ZERO CARBON EMISSIONS FROM

HARDER-TO-ABATE SECTORS BY MID-CENTURY

The Energy Transitions Commission

Adair Turner Ajay Mathur

Dominic Emery Will Gardiner

Philip New Changwen Zhao

Didier Holleaux Lei ZhangRichard Lancaster

Nicholas Stern

Laurence Tubiana

Robert Trezona

Arvid Moss

Nandita Parshad

Auke LontChad Holliday

JP TricoireAlex Laskey Jules Kortenhorst

Cathy Zoi

Mark Laabs

Gopi Katragadda Nigel ToppingAndrew SteerLaurent Auguste Timothy Wirth

Rachel KytePA de Chalendar

Mahendra Singhi

Andreas Regnell

Zoe Knight

Source: IPCC (2018), Global Warming of 1.5˚C

Global emissions pathway characteristics in the IPCC 1.5˚C reportGt CO2/year

Four illustrative model pathways

P1P2P3

P4

40 50 60 70 80 90 21002010 20 30

Timing of net zero CO2Line widths depict the 5-95th

percentile and the 25-75th

percentile of scenarios

Pathways limiting global warming to 1.5˚C with no or low overshoot

Pathways with high overshootPathways limiting global warming below 2˚C (not shown above)

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

To limit harmful impact of climate change on humanity and the planet, CO2 emissions must reach net-zero globally by around 2050

In its new report “Mission Possible”, the Energy Transitions Commission focuses on 6 major activities, which are the harder-to-abate sectors of the economy

0.9

2.2

1.6

1.1 0.3

2014

2.3

1.0

0.3

2.5

0.4

10.3

2.2

2.3

3.3

1.7

1.8

4.6

2050 Reference Technology

Scenario

1.01.71.3

0.90.7

2050 2°C scenario

15.7

8.1

~30% of global emissions



Source: IEA (2017), Energy Technology Perspectives

Shipping

Aluminum

Iron and steelCement

Chemicals and petrochemicals

AviationHeavy road transport

Direct and process emissions from the harder-to-abate sectorsGt CO2,

With no action, emissions from these harder-to-abate sectors could increase by 50% by mid-century

3 main routes to net-zero carbon emissions in harder-to-abate sectors

9.3

2.0

1.9

0.9

0.8

Current practice scenario

Materials circulation Product circulation

1.7

Circular scenario 2050

2.0

5.6

-40%Aluminium

Cement

PlasticsSteel

2.9

2.8

2.2

1.3

Source: Material Economics analysis for the Energy Transitions Commission (2018)

A more circular economy can cut emissions from the harder-to-abate sectors in industry by 40% by 2050

Global emissions reductions potential from a more circular economy Gt CO2 per year

1.7

1.8

4.6

Current practice scenario (IEA RTS)

Logistics andOperationalefficiency

1.7

Modal shift Reduced demand

1.5

3.3

Demand management

scenario

8.2 0.60.1 0.9

6.5

-20%

ShippingAviationHeavy road

Source: SYSTEMIQ analysis for the Energy Transitions Commission (2018)

Demand management can cut emissions from the harder-to-abate sectors in transport by 20% by 2050

Global emissions reductions potential from demand managementGt CO2 per year, 2050

The potential for energy efficiency improvement is greater in heavy-duty transport than in heavy industry

• Engine efficiency• Aerodynamics and tyre

design-30/45%

• Switch to dry kilns• Multistage cyclone heaters• Decrease in clinker-to-

cement ratio

-10%

• Machinery efficiency• Wind assistance• Ship design, hull and

propulsion

-30/55%

• Engine efficiency• Aircraft design-30/45%

• Re-use of high pressure gas• Coke dry quenching-15-20%

• Energy efficiency in monomer production

• Naphtha catalytic craking-15-20%

Source: McKinsey & Company (2018), Decarbonization of the industrial sectors: the next frontier

In each industry sector, there is a trade-off between three major technology pathways: electrification (direct or indirect), carbon capture or use of biomass

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Electricity price US$/MWh

Carbon capture route

Abatement costUS$ per tonne of CO2

Biomass-based route

Electricity-based route

Breakeven point at which electricity-based solutions

become lower-cost than CCS


Battery electric vehicles or Fuel-cell electric

vehicles

Ammonia or Hydrogen (primarily)Biofuels or Synfuels

Most probable option for short haul Most probable option for long haul

Biofuels or Synfuels

Battery electric vehicles or Fuel-cell electric

vehicles

H2

Shipping

Aviation

H2

Battery electric vehicles

Heavy-road transport

Battery electric vehicles(with or without catenary wiring)

or Fuel-cell electric vehiclesH2

Electric drive trains will dominate in heavy-road transport and short-haul shipping and aviation

1.5

Supply-side decarbonization - Low-cost scenario

Supply-side decarbonization - High-cost scenario

0.8

Supply-side decarbonization and efficiency - Low-cost scenario

0.5

-46%-67%

0.25%0.45% 0.15%

Note: The term “efficiency” covers energy efficiency, materials efficiency, materials circularity, and demand management in transport.Source: SYSTEMIQ analysis for the Energy Transitions Commission (2018) based on McKinsey & Company (2018), Decarbonization ofindustrial sectors: the next frontier and Material Economics analysis for the Energy Transitions Commission (2018)

X% Share of global projected GDP, 2050

Total cost of decarbonizationTrillion US$ per year, 2050

Decarbonizing harder-to-abate sectors will cost less than 0.5% of global GDP

Ammonia

Heavy-road transportAviation

SteelEthyleneCement

Shipping


Decarbonization of the harder-to-abate sectors will havea very small impact on prices for end consumers

Policy-makers

Policy-makers

Policy-makersHarder-to-abate industries

Policy-makersHarder-to-abate industries

Investors

Buyers

Energy companiesInvestors

Action agenda for policy-makers, investors and businesses

Adequate carbon prices must play a central role in driving decarbonization of the harder-to-abate sectors

Indicative supply-side abatement cost, US$/tonne CO2

MISSION POSSIBLE - IETA Media Files/Dec7/SE16 (3).pdfIn its new report “Mission Possible”, the...

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