Central Weather Bureau

Mission Operation &

Development

Mark Cheng

Director R&D center, Central Weather Bureau

Taiwan Background

CWB Missions & Operations

Development activities to support operation

TEMBIN

Geographical environment of TaiwanContinent/Ocean boundary, Tropical/sub-tropical, steep topography

BOLAVEN

2012.Aug. Location (121E,24N)

continent / ocean boundary

tropical / sub-tropical

Size

400km × 150km

36,000km2 (8.4% of California)

Topography

over 1km mountain area > 32%

over 200 peaks > 3000m

strong orographic forcing

Population 23M

Forecast ChallengesTyphoon & Heavy rain fall

Major weather/climate phenomenons

http://t17.techbang.com

http://keepsurfing.pixnet.net

http://www.tia.org.tw

http://chinataiwan.org

Spring rain

(Feb-Mar)

Meiyu heavy rain (May-Jun)

Heat

wave

(Jul-Sep)

Typhoon

(Jul-Sep)

Cold surge

(Dec-Feb)

Dry season (central, south)

(Oct – Apr)

North：FAMJ & ASON Central,South： MJ & JAS Eastern：MJJ & ASON

Raining season vary with location

Contributed from short period, small scale, intensive events

FMA MJ JAS ON DJF

Natural Disaster Losses

79.85%

0.89%

10.79%

1.80%0.01% 6.08%

0.12%

0.02%

0.44%

颱風

豪雨 水災

旱災

冰雹

寒害 霜害

病蟲害

地震

焚風

其他

(1) Typhoon

10.79%

(2) Heavy rain

(3) Earthquake(4) Cold surge

Total direct losses due to weather and earthquake related disasters

are about NT$ 453 billion from 1985 to 2011. (US$ 570M/year)

(5) Drought

Population：23M

水利署(WRA):：「台灣地區水資源運用現況與未來發展問題」

Limited water resources

USA

Precip. share

(m3/person/year)

TWN

Average

JPN

CHN

Average Precip. (mm/year)

Key issues to TWN forecast challengesComplex terrain, boundary of continent and ocean,

intersection of tropical and sub-tropical monsoon area, prone to typhoon, heavy rain fall, cold surge and drought

Heavy rain fall !Requires accurate S.R. precipitation forecast information (PQPF) for hazard mitigation

Lack Water resource !Requires month to seasonal L.R. forecast information for water resource management

Need to enhance related forecast capabilities,

Provides high resolution monitoring and forecasting

(warning) Information for decision making applications.

Short range

Long range

Taiwan Background

CWB Missions & Operations

Development activities to support operation

CWB MISSIONs

Enhance the science-based observation and forecast

capabilities for delivering accurate and timely service

information to all sectors

Promote weather awareness and knowledge as well as

encourage cross-sectoral dialogues for all possible value

added usages & applications

Provide science based Meteorological Service information to government and

society for safer and better life

To Fulfill the Missions

Partnership is the key to the success of all operations

Modernized Refined BroadenedObservations Forecasts Services++

Courtesy：WMO

Targeted Observations

(NTU,TTFRI)

DOTSTAR missions

2003~2013 :

54Typhoons,

69 missions, 373 Hours, 1146 Drops.

Dropsonde

Flight domain

2014/5/9CWB Typhoon OP Mark Cheng

14

GPSRO – NCAR,JCSDA(NCEP)

NSPO,TTFRI ,Univ.

FS3(2005) FS7(2016,2018)

Courtesy：ECMWF

Global & localData Acqusition

Model Forecast

Information

Display

Verification

Product Generation

Forecast Decision

Dataprocessing

Weather Forecast operations

WPPS

風雨預報TED

颱風警報編輯

颱風分析預報整合系統

TAFIS

Typhoon forecast & warning operations

Sea area warning (24hrs before hit 100km)：8:40、10:30、11:40、14:40、16:30、17:40、20:40、23:40

Land area warning (18hrs before hit land)：6:00、8:40、10:30、11:40、14:40、16:30、17:40、20:40、23:40

Probability of Strike

Potential Track Area

記者會(

3小時一場)

傳真(

防災，媒體)

國際傳真廣播(B

MF

)

SS

B

氣象語音廣播

點對點專線防災服務

中央災害應變中心

FT

P S

se

rve

r

水利署、水保局

公路總局

23縣市防災網

農業相關單位

語音專線

氣象資訊傳真回覆系統(F

OD

)

Typhoon warning

Wind and Rainfall

forecast

2014/5/9 CWB氣候測報服務規劃 17

El Nino Monitoring Typhoon Climate monitoring

Climate Monitor & Forecast

月、季 短期氣候預測全球、東亞、台灣 區域溫度、雨量、季風、颱風春雨、…

Climate Monitoring Report

Seasonal Outlook

CWB Monthly Outlook

UniversityResearch

Gov. AgcyHaz. Mitg.

CAA/MODWRA/EPA

Gen. Pub.media

Web / Personalize

PDA/APP

Push

Text

Mobility

E paper / Subscribe

Gov.DB

cloudM/U-Taiwan

Esociety

LivingAP.

Broadcast

Valueadded

Research

MeteorologicalInformation

ServicePlatform

颱天

氣

風

候

氣

海

象

Service information Distribution channels

Weather

Marine

Typhoon

Climate

Utilizing modern ICT technologies to support the service operation

Taiwan Background

CWB Missions & Operations

Development activities to support operation

Build、Enhance、Integrate、Application

Auto. DP

NWP

P 1( 82.7~89.12)

NWP & RCS

WINS/I

Public service

P 2(90.1~94.12)

Enhanced service

NICE

MSS

Model statistics

RNC

NWP & RCS

P 3(95.7~01.6)

Climate model and L.R.Fcst

Weatherinformation

Infrastructure

P 4(02.1~09.12)

CWB Modernization Projects

WINS/IIForecast

operation tools

V.Sort RangeFcst model

Valued service

NWPcentric

NWP & RCS

P 5(10.1~15.12)

NWP & RCS

Valued service

CoupledClimate model

Decision support tools

Nowcastingtools

Weatherinformation

Infrastructure

Based on the slide from

NWS, Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Mar. 24,2008 NCEP’s Climate Forecast System as a national model

Wave Forecast

NWW3, SWAN,Tide

Typhoon Forecast

TWRF

12-72 Hours Forecast

NFS, WRF

7-30 days Forecast

GFS

GFS-ensemble

1-6 months Forecast

CFS-ensemble Climate/Weather

CWB

CWB

0-12 Hours Forecast

LAPS, ARPS, QPESUMS, ANC

1987

CDC

Cyber 205

Comp pwr as

1/3704 current

1994

CRAY

YMP-8i

Comp pwr as

1/303 current

2000

FUJITSU

VPP5000

Comp pwr as

1/15 current

2006

IBM

P5-575

Comp pwr as

x1

2012~2013

FUJITSU

FX10/PFX10

Comp pwr as 92 current19 84-89

Phase 1

19 90-94

Phase 2

1995- 2001

Phase 3

20 02-09

Phase 4

20 10-15

Phase 5

Top500/氣象排名No293/No18

Top500/氣象排名No91/No14

Top500/氣象排名No45/No5

Top500/氣象排名No14/No2

2015

GFS: <20KM

RFS : 1~2KM

(最細網格)

EFS : >100 mbrs/day

●●

●●

2006

GFS : 40KM

RFS : 20/4KM

EFS : 40 mbrs/day

1994

GFS : 165KM

RFS : 65/20KM

2000

GFS : 110KM

RFS : 45/15/5KM1987

GFS : 275KM

RFS : 90KM

NWP improved as HPC power increase

CWB NWP model improvement

+AMSUA

(more)

t320l40

GSICUP

+gpsroradiationt240l30

VPP->IBMPBL

T180l30

(radiance

Missing-3 mon)

SSI

(t319L40)(t574L64)

(t1279L91)(t359L50)

T120L30

1998

T79L18=>T119L18

Land model

Non-COSMIC gpsro

IASI

CWBGFS

CWB WRF 72 Hr forecast (2009-2012)

16

93

152

203

268

333

411

7 66

104

152

215

289

366

8

67

102

134 168

215

285

148

120

248

193

93688

243

369

130

286

173

92

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0 12 24 36 48 60 72

forecast hours (hr)

trac

k er

rors

(km

)

CV3_OL_DFI_GD

CV5_OL_DFI_GD

CV5_OL_DFI_KF

CV5_OL_DFI_KF_Par

WRF_OP

CWB

2012 TWRF

improvement

(247 cases)

Official TC

forecast track

error from

1994 to 2010

official forecast

• Select the model QPF cases from ensemble members according to the prior estimate

of the typhoon position, then produce the composite rain map and probability products

based on the selected samples.

• Maximally use the ensemble QPF based on the optimal track forecast

• Collect all the model outputs from Taiwan community, e.g. the ensemble typhoon

forecast experiment conducted by TTFRI in 2010.

Ensemble Typhoon QPF concept

Morakot 2009

Megi 2010

More Challenges are coming

Extreme heavy rainfall typhoon cases almost tripled in the past 10 years

More collaborations are critical

Modern observation systems require extensive knowledge

to operate and effectively use

Models and ensembles are the major tools for deterministic

and probabilistic forecast of weather and climate future

Increasingly complexities of data assimilation and modeling

systems require team work to develop

Cross-sectoral applications require multidisciplinary

science and collaboration

Human resources development is necessary for sustainable

development

Respond to the increasingly demands of forecasts from all sectors

Incorporate all possible resources to improve components of operating forecast systems

Collaborate with partners locally and/or globally

Thanks for your attention

Questions？ Comments？ Suggestions？

Welcome partners to join the challenge