MISO South Region Operations_May2015

MISO System-wide DA and RT LMPs

05

101520253035404550556065707580

40

.06

44

.49

39

.22

33

.27

33

.37

32

.39

33

.37

35

.34

30

.17

28

.48

31

.73

28

.42

25

.20

41

.13

44

.16

36

.95

32

.15

32

.12

33

.09

32

.44

34

.34

29

.38

28

.19

30

.46

29

.04

24

.64

Day-Ahead and Real-Time Average Monthly System-Wide MISO Prices

MISO DA MISO RT

$/M

Wh

Note: MISO System-Wide price is based on the monthly hourly average of the active hubs.

1

Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-150.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

30

.7%

30

.1%

22

.8%

14

.0%

10

.3%

12

.3%

12

.8%

14

.0%

10

.4%

11

.1% 19

.0%

17

.9%

13

.6%

DA/RT Price Deviation

Pe

rce

nt

Pri

ce

Div

erg

en

ce

*Price Convergence: DA and RT LMP

Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15

12.30 13.41

8.94

4.653.44 4.00 4.27 4.93

3.13 3.176.03 5.08

3.42

-1.08

0.33 0.23 1.12 1.25

-0.70

0.93 1.00 0.78 0.29 1.27

-0.63

0.56

Average Absolute (DA-RT) difference Average (DA-RT) difference

$/M

Wh

* Monthly deviation, expressed as a percent of average DA LMP, is calculated as the average of hourly absolute (DA-RT) price differences divided by the average of hourly DA LMPs for the month.

Note: MISO System-Wide price is based on the monthly hourly average of the active trading hubs.

2

ILL IND MICH MINN ARK LOU TEX MISO

29

.68

30

.77

30

.01

24

.18

25

.88 3

2.7

9

26

.22

28

.50

28

.64

29

.93

29

.20

24

.01

25

.07

36

.81

25

.95

28

.52

22

.20

24

.64

23

.36

16

.70

20

.98

23

.85

22

.48

22

.03

19

.99 24

.78

23

.12

16

.15

19

.99

21

.35

21

.13

20

.93

Peak/Off-Peak: March 2015

DA Peak RT Peak DA OffPeak RT OffPeak

$/M

Wh

MISO DA and RT Hub LMPs

3

ILL IND MICH MINN ARK LOU TEX MISODA Peak 1.55 1.54 0.31 -2.45 -1.55 3.70 -2.10 0.14RT Peak 0.45 0.64 -0.36 -2.95 -2.18 8.03 -2.09 0.22

DA OffPeak 0.84 2.30 0.91 -3.35 0.03 1.75 0.56 0.43RT OffPeak -0.79 3.07 1.42 -3.37 -0.16 0.14 0.06 0.05

Congestion Component of LMP ($/MWh)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

20 40 60 80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

$/M

Wh

Number of Hours

Price Duration Curve – Peak Hours

Note: MISO System-Wide price is based on the hourly average of the active hubs.

4

Apr-2015 MISO Real-Time Price 196.48 2(0.57%) 2(0.57%) 344(97.73%) 0(0.00%)

Apr-2015 MISO Day-Ahead Price 39.44 0(0.00%) 0(0.00%) 352(100.00%) 0(0.00%)

Mar-2015 MISO Real-Time Price 476.20 2(0.57%) 3(0.85%) 328(93.18%) 0(0.00%)

Mar-2015 MISO Day-Ahead Price 78.11 0(0.00%) 0(0.00%) 340(96.59%) 0(0.00%)

Hours w ithLMP < $0/MWh

Hours w ithLMP > $150/MWh



Peak Hourly LMP

Price Duration Curve – Off-Peak Hours

Source MISO Information Delivery and Market Analysis Department

Note: MISO System-Wide price is based on the hourly average of the active hubs.

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

20 40 60 80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

$/M

Wh

Number of Hours

Apr-2015 MISO Real-Time Price 55.80 0(0.00%) 0(0.00%) 367(99.73%) 0(0.00%)

Apr-2015 MISO Day-Ahead Price 38.69 0(0.00%) 0(0.00%) 368(100.00%) 0(0.00%)

Mar-2015 MISO Real-Time Price 86.65 0(0.00%) 0(0.00%) 386(98.47%) 0(0.00%)

Mar-2015 MISO Day-Ahead Price 56.99 0(0.00%) 0(0.00%) 390(99.49%) 0(0.00%)

Peak Hourly LMP





92.24131.77

108.02

52.54 49.0185.99 79.25 65.59 50.36 55.40

94.7174.04

49.21


DA Congestion Collections

Normalized* Day-Ahead Market Congestion Collections$/MWh

1.722.27

1.64

0.77 0.69

1.42 1.39 1.130.84 0.84

1.53 1.270.94


Day-Ahead Market Congestion Collections$ in millions

Source: MISO Information Delivery and Market Analysis Department

* Normalized using Day-Ahead loadDate of Extraction: May 05, 2015.

6

4.7

4

4.6

1

4.6

6

4.1

5

3.9

2

3.9

6

3.8

7

4.4

9

3.6

5

3.0

9 4.4

8

4.6

2

4.6

0

4.5

9

4.0

8

3.8

6

3.9

4

3.8

0

4.0

2

3.4

3

2.9

9

2.8

8

2.8

7

2.5

8

3.0

1

2.5

8


Chicago Citygate Hub Henry Hub

1.98 1.95 1.94 1.88 1.86 1.85 1.89 1.90 1.90 1.921.78 1.71 1.72

0.74 0.74 0.73 0.71 0.67 0.65 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66


Illinois Basin Powder River Basin

Nominal Fuel PricesGas ($/mmbtu)

Coal ($/mmbtu)

Chicago Citygate Trading Hub and Henry Trading Hub

Oil* ($/mmbtu)

Illinois Basin Heat Content = 11,800 btu/lb,Powder River Basin Heat Content = 8,800 btu/lb

Distillate Fuel Oil Heat Content =5.825 mmbtu/bbl

Source: Publicly Available/Government Sources-EIA and ICE

22.82 22.69 22.73 22.36 21.95 21.32 20.09 19.6816.59

14.58 15.92 14.50 14.83


https://www.theice.com/marketdata/reports/76

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/page/coalnews/coalmar.html#spot; “SNL Energy”

http://www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub/cf_tables/steotables.cfm?tableNumber=8

* Monthly oil prices are estimates and subject to change upon finalization.

7

https://www.theice.com/marketdata/reports/ReportCenter.shtml?reportId=77


http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/page/coalnews/coalmar.html#spot

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/page/coalnews/coalmar.html#spot

http://www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub/cf_tables/steotables.cfm?tableNumber=8


19

3.6

1

25

5.9

5

17

5.3

4

89

.85

79

.28

13

4.6

6

14

0.6

6

12

5.2

6

95

.91

10

1.2

7

16

7.5

4

13

9.7

4

92

.80

12

5.3

4

7.48

2.832.65

21.74

6.49

0.32

12.19

2.55

1.95

4.97

0.00

1.62

1.23

15.63

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Apr2014

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2015

Feb Mar Apr YTDAvg

$ in M

illions

Hourly and Monthly Funding for Credits Net FTR Shortfall

Source: MISO Market ECF Report

Date of Extraction: May 5, 2015. Values may change due to resettlement.

FTR Rolling 12-month percentage calculations can be found in the April 2015 FTRWG meeting materials.

FTR Monthly and Rolling 12-Month FundingC

8

Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15Monthly FTR Allocation% 89.9% 97.5% 99.8% 96.9% 96.8% 94.7% 90.0% 91.1% 97.4% 98.8% 99.0% 100.0% 94.9%Rolling 12-month Allocation% 97.7% 98.2% 98.6% 98.4% 98.3% 97.9% 97.6% 97.5% 97.4% 96.1% 96.1% 96.1% 96.8%

https://www.misoenergy.org/Library/Repository/Meeting%20Material/Stakeholder/FTRWG/2015/20150211/20150211%20FTRWG%20Item%2007a%20FTR%20metrics%20for%20FTRWG.pdf

Offered Capacity and RT Peak Load ObligationOffered Capacity (Hourly Average per category)

MW


*Gas excludes CC and CT units. **Other includes DRR as well as oil ,pet coke and waste units.

1Real-Time ICCP Load plus Real-Time Regulation Requirement plus Real-Time Spinning Requirement at the daily Peak hour

Average Net Scheduled Interchange over all hours

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas*

CC

CT

Other**

1Real-Time peak load obligation

Coal

Wind

9

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

4/1

4/2

4/3

4/4

4/5

4/6

4/7

4/8

4/9

4/1

0

4/1

1

4/1

2

4/1

3

4/1

4

4/1

5

4/1

6

4/1

7

4/1

8

4/1

9

4/2

0

4/2

1

4/2

2

4/2

3

4/2

4

4/2

5

4/2

6

4/2

7

4/2

8

4/2

9

4/3

0

Marginal Fuel – April 2015Percentage of Time a Fuel is Marginal in the Real-Time Market% of Time


CC Coal Gas^^ Nuclear Oil Hydro *Wind0

20

40

60

80

100

120

42

85

30

0 0 0

66

46

82

48

0 2 1

55

44

83

39

0 1 0

61

Off-Peak On-Peak Total

Note: Binding transmission constraints can produce instances where more than one unit is marginal in the system. Consequently, more than one fuel may be on the margin; and since each marginal unit is included in the analysis, the percentage may sum to more than 100%.

^^Gas excludes Combined Cycle units

10

Generation Outages and Derates

Source: MISO CROW Outage Scheduler

* Forced Outages include Emergency, Forced, and Urgent* Planned Outages include Planned

*De-rates are based on limits observed in Real-Time and may reflect normal seasonal de-rates in addition to de-rates for maintenance or other operating conditions.

Outages extracted on May 01, 2015


5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Daily Average Generation Outages and Derates - Reliability Footprint

Forced* Planned* Derates*

MW

Data includes both MISO market and reliability footprints. Outage data is “point in time” and can change. The chart reflects the data as it resided in the system on the date of extraction.

11

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Co

un

t

Alerts* Warnings* Events*

Minimum and Maximum Generation Notifications

0 0 01

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Co

un

t

Alerts* Warnings* Events*

Minimum Generation ActionsSupply surplus situations during light load periods when on-line resources need to operate at Emergency Minimum levels or be decommitted as to not over burden the interconnected system.

Maximum Generation ActionsSystem-wide or transmission contingency related capacity shortages that may jeopardize the reliable operation of all or part of the MISO system.

Source: MISO Real-Time Operations Department

* Alerts – forecasting specific emergency situations in a future time-frame* Warnings – experiencing initial stages of an emergency situation and taking action* Events – experiencing an emergency situation and taking action

12

100 96 98.33 98.9

Apr-15 Mar-15 2015 YTD Avg 2014 Avg

-4.2

251.5 256.6 286.2

-11.6

-3.5

-20.6

254.4


Mean STD

45 4936

29


6

0

0

0

0

0

Level 3 & 4

Level 5

Level 6

Apr-15 Mar-15

2.54.0

1.00.0

1.02.0


MISO External

Reliability — Other MetricsTransmission Loading Relief (TLR) Events Area Control Error (ACE)

MW

Levels:3 – curtailing non-firm4 – curtailing non-firm and reconfiguring5 – curtailing firm6 – emergency

Manual Redispatches (Count)

23,518 MWh Non-Firm MWh Curtailed

0 MWh Firm MWh Curtailed


April 2015 Unit Commitment EfficiencyPercentage of days with online generation held to target and sufficient to meet demand and constraints

N

Contingency Reserve Sharing# of ARS events

O

13

Generation Interconnect Queue – Overall

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Apr2013


Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2015

Feb Mar Apr

# of

Req

uest

s

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Size

of Q

ueue

(MW

)

Size of Queue (MW) Number of Requests

Generation Interconnect Queue – Overall Status

Source: MISO Transmission Planning Department

84

2

81

Requests

Wind Coal Other

14

Generator Suspension/Retirement – Overall

0

5

10

15

20

Apr2013


Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2015

Feb Mar Apr

# o

f Re

qu

est

s

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Siz

e o

f Qu

eu

e (

MW

)

Size of Queue (MW) Number of Requests

Generator Suspension/Retirement Requests – Overall


2

1

0

Requests in Study -Current Month

Coal Gas Other

15

Regional DA and RT Average Hub LMP


16

29.6

8

30.7

7

30.0

1

24.1

8

25.8

8 32.7

9

26.2

2

28.6

4

29.9

3

29.2

0

24.0

1

25.0

7

36.8

1

25.9

5

22.2

0

24.6

4

23.3

6

16.7

0

20.9

8

23.8

5

22.4

8

19.9

9 24.7

8

23.1

2

16.1

5

19.9

9

21.3

5

21.1

3

ILL IND MICH MINN ARK LOU TEX

Central Region North Region South Region

Day-Ahead and Real-Time Average Monthly LMP for HubsPeak/Off-Peak : April 2015

DA_Peak RT_Peak DA_offPeak RT_offPeak


Regional & System-wide DA & RT LMP – MISO, PJM, SPP

Note: SPP price is the hourly average of LMPs at SPP’s Settlement Locations. Hourly LMP data provided by SPP.

SPP MISO PJM

21

.70

25

.20

30

.35

22

.00

24

.64

29

.81

Day-Ahead and Real-Time Average Monthly LMP for MISO, PJM and SPP: April 2015

Day-Ahead Real-Time

$/M

Wh

SPP South Hub MISO Arkansas Hub MISO Indiana Hub PJM Chicago Hub

26

.12

23

.38

27

.64

24

.77

27

.12

22

.47

27

.30

24

.75

$/M

Wh

17

6.9

2

6.8

3

6.8

3

6.8

3

6.8

3

6.8

3

7.4

5

6.8

37.4

6

6.6

4

6.6

4

6.6

4

6.6

4

6.6

4

12.

37

6.6

4

1.7

5

1.6

6

1.6

6

1.6

6

1.6

6

1.6

6

2.2

7

1.6

6

2.0

2

1.2

0

1.2

0

1.2

0

1.2

0

1.2

0

6.9

3

1.2

0

0.6

5

0.5

4

0.5

4

0.5

4

0.5

4

0.5

4 1.2

9

0.5

41.2

8

0.4

4

0.4

4

0.4

4

0.4

4

0.4

4

6.3

2

0.4

4

MISO Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7

Non-Zone Indiana Michigan Wisconsin Minnesota Louisiana Texas

$/M

Wh

Day-Ahead and Real-Time Monthly Average of Hourly MCPs by Zones: April 2015

REG_DA_MCP REG_RT_MCP SPIN_DA_MCP SPIN_RT_MCP SUPP_DA_MCP SUPP_RT_MCP


Note: No reserve MCP separation across zones if no reserve zone constraints bind. The definition of the Reserve Zones is updated on a quarterly basis, in conjunction with the update of the Network Model. See Zonal Regulation Map

Zonal DA and RT MCP

18

https://www.misoenergy.org/MarketsOperations/RealTimeMarketData/Pages/AncillaryMarketMCP.aspx

Average Load by Region

Central Region(GW)

South Region(GW)

North Region(GW)

Source: MISO Information Delivery and Market Analysis Department* Monthly data based on hourly ICCP load data.

36.57 37.9343.12 42.36 44.35

39.51 37.1840.40 41.28 43.61 45.07

39.3735.83


15.27 15.05 16.68 17.20 17.7015.70 15.43 17.22 17.47 17.91 18.39

16.04 14.84


16.81 18.1521.48 21.88 22.75 20.96

17.69 17.86 17.88 19.51 19.4816.88 16.68


Hourly Integrated Peak Load Hour: 04/09/2015 HE 14 Peak load: 79.00 GW

Central Region: 41.60GW North Region: 17.18GW South Region: 20.22GW

19


*Based on 5-minute unit level generation dispatch target

Dispatched Generation Fuel Mix by Region

20

67.6%

50.4%

15.3%

67.8%

49.0%

10.5%

13.7%

12.3%

26.4%

15.7%

9.9%

31.2%

14.7%

7.2%53.9%

11.4%

7.1%

52.5%

3.3%

28.0%

3.7%

31.4%

4.3% 5.8%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

Central Region North Region South Region Central Region North Region South Region

Mar-2015 Apr-2015

Coal(%) Nuclear(%) Gas(%) Wind(%) Other(%)

Generation Outages by Region

Source: MISO CROW Outage Scheduler

* Forced Outages include Emergency, Forced, and Urgent* Planned Outages include Planned

*De-rates are based on limits observed in Real-Time and may reflect normal seasonal de-rates in addition to de-rates for maintenance or other operating conditions.

Outages extracted on May 01, 2015 Data includes both MISO market and reliability footprints. Outage data is “point in time” and can change. The chart reflects the data as it resided in the system on the date of extraction.

21

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


Mar-2015 Apr-2015

GW

Daily Average Generation Outages and Derates - Reliability Footprint

Forced Planned Derates

Source: The Web-based Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee Report

Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee by Regions

*DA_RSG_VLR% is the ratio of DA RSG associated with VLR commitments to the total DA RSG MWP.

*RT_RSG_Txx% is the ratio of RT RSG associated with congestion mitigation to the total RT RSG MWP.Date of Extraction: May 5, 2015. Values may change due to resettlement.

22

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00


Apr-2015

Mill

ions

DA RSG & DA RSG Associated with VLR Total DA RSG MWP DA RSG Associated with VLR Commitments DA_RSG_VLR%*

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00


Apr-2015

Mill

ions

RT RSG & RT RSG Associated with Congestion Mitigation RT RSG MWP RT RSG Associated with Congestion Mitigation RT_RSG_Txx%*

Reliability – Manual Re-dispatches and TLR by Region

Transmission Loading Relief (TLR) Events (Count)

Levels:3 – curtailing non-firm4 – curtailing non-firm and reconfiguring5 – curtailing firm6 – emergency

Manual Redispatches (Count)


TLR – April 2015

Notifications – April 2015 • 04/08/15 15:38-23:00 EST: Severe

Weather Alert for areas in the Central Region, due to Tornado Warnings.

• 04/09/15 01:00-02:30 EST: System Status Level 1 YELLOW due to network issues affecting M2M, ARS, MCS and the portal.

• 04/09/15 19:30 EST to 04/10/2015 03:00 EST: Severe Weather Alert for MISO footprint due to a long line of severe thunderstorms including tornado watches and warnings.

• 04/27/15: 05:50 – 14:00 EST Severe Weather Alert issued for southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi areas due to heavy storms, tornadoes, damaging wind and hail.

• 04/27/15: 10:10 – 14:00 EST Conservative Operations issued for EES, CLEC, LAFA, LEPA, SME due to multiple forced transmission outages.

0 Firm MWh Curtailed23,518 Non-Firm MWh Curtailed

23

0 0 0

4

2

00 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0


Mar-2015 Apr-2015

Level 3&4 Level 5 Level 6

3

25

82

1017

49

Central Region North Region South Region Central Region North Region South Region MISO

Mar-2015 Apr-2015 2014 AVG

# Number of Manual Redispatch

Transmission Service and Generation Interconnection Request by Region

Long-term Firm Transmission Service Queue


Generation Interconnect Queue

Number of RequestsApril 2015

Note: The regions are determined based on POINT_OF_RECEIPT.

24

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


Apr-2015

# of Requests in Study

0

4

8

12


Apr-2015

# of Requests Processed

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


Apr-2015

MW Size of Queue( MW) -Total

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400


Apr-2015

MW Size of Queue( MW) -New Size of Queue (MW) - Resolved

Region Total New ResolvedCentral 83 0 4North 55 2 1South 22 0 1

Transmission Service and Generation Interconnection Request by Region

Long-term Firm Transmission Service Queue

Generation Interconnect Queue

Number of RequestsFebruary 2015

Note: The regions are determined based on POINT_OF_RECEIPT.

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


Feb-2015

# of Requests in Study

0

4

8

12

16

20

24


Feb-2015

# of Requests Processed

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


Feb-2015

MW Size of Queue( MW) -Total

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700


Feb-2015

MW Size of Queue( MW) -New Size of Queue (MW) - Resolved

Region Total New ResolvedCentral 89 0 3North 51 0 0South 25 0 1

MISO South Region Operations_May2015

Data & Analytics

Transcript of MISO South Region Operations_May2015