South Region

South RegionSouth Region

LNG market changes and cross border flows

SGRI – 15th November 2013SGRI – 15th November 2013

Agenda

1. France Zone North – Zone South flows

2. France - Spain cross-border flows

3. Spain – LNG and Third country flows

4. Portugal – LNG and cross-border flows

3

Transmission demand in 2012 Main evolutions vs. 2011

• Drop of LNG supplies – -38% between 2011 and 2012– -50% at Montoir

• Historical cold snap in February 2012 – 10 days at record levels with daily

consumption above 3 000 GWh/day

• Higher entries at Dunkirk (+12%) and Obergailbach (+38%) to offset LNG’s supplies

• Growing exports to Spain (+18%), decreasing to Italy (-34%)

4

Transmission demand in 2012

• High rate of long term subscription :– PIR~100%

• Lesser bookings at PITS• High utilization of subscribed

capacities at PIR– Lesser use of regas capacities

• Maximum utilization of the North / South Interconnection Point

• All points used at least one time at their fully booked capacities

AA 88 %LT 100 %

AA 82%LT 100%

AA 32 %LT 100%

AA 62 %LT 94%

AA58 %LT 92%

AA 19%LT 87%

AA 63%LT W 61%LT S 89%

AA 93%LT 100 %

Annual Average LTsubscription

Daily Maximum use below 100%

AA 70%LT 100%

AA 15%LT 100%

AA8%LT15 %

5

Transmission demand in 2012High use of capacities at PIRs reflecting the global increase

of gas flows through pipelines in 2012

Rate of subscription Rate of subscription

6

Transmission demand in 2012Sharp drop at Oltingue and at PITTM, an increase at PIR Midi

OLTINGUE

LNG MONTOIR LNG FOS

MIDI

Rate of subscription

7

North-South link (1/2)High rate of subscription and increased use

in the current market situation

• Firm capacities limited to 230 GWh/day between North and South• Due to LNG drop, North South IP used at 93% on average in 2012• Average spread at 1.6 €/MWh in 2012 with higher points at 7 €/MWh• Market coupling and joint transport storage services introduced to

relieve the congestion

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

€/M

Wh

Spread PEG South - PEG North

Rate of subscription

8

North-South link (2/2)

01/01/2

013

10/01/2

013

19/01/2

013

28/01/2

013

06/02/2

013

15/02/2

013

24/02/2

013

05/03/2

013

14/03/2

013

23/03/2

013

01/04/2

013

10/04/2

013

19/04/2

013

28/04/2

013

07/05/2

013

16/05/2

013

25/05/2

013

03/06/2

013

12/06/2

013

21/06/2

013

30/06/2

013

09/07/2

013

18/07/2

013

27/07/2

013

05/08/2

013

14/08/2

013

23/08/2

013

01/09/2

013

10/09/2

013

19/09/2

013

28/09/2

013

07/10/2

013

16/10/2

013

25/10/2

013

03/11/2

013

-600,000,000

-400,000,000

-200,000,000

0

200,000,000

400,000,000

600,000,000

Maximum technical capacity(kWh 25°C) North to South

Maximum technical capacity(kWh 25°C) South to North

Total contracted firm capacity(kWh 25°C) North to South

Total contracted firm capacity(kWh 25°C) South to North

Allocation(kWh 25°C) North to South

Allocation(kWh 25°C) South to North

kWh/

d

Nota: Maximum technical capacity = Firm + Interruptible

9

Midi IP

01/01/2

013

11/01/2

013

21/01/2

013

31/01/2

013

10/02/2

013

20/02/2

013

02/03/2

013

12/03/2

013

22/03/2

013

01/04/2

013

11/04/2

013

21/04/2

013

01/05/2

013

11/05/2

013

21/05/2

013

31/05/2

013

10/06/2

013

20/06/2

013

30/06/2

013

10/07/2

013

20/07/2

013

30/07/2

013

09/08/2

013

19/08/2

013

29/08/2

013

08/09/2

013

18/09/2

013

28/09/2

013

08/10/2

013

18/10/2

013

28/10/2

013

07/11/2

013

-500,000,000

-400,000,000

-300,000,000

-200,000,000

-100,000,000

0

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

Maximum technical capacity(kWh 25°C) Entry

Maximum technical capacity(kWh 25°C) Exit

Total contracted firm capacity(kWh 25°C) Entry

Total contracted firm capacity(kWh 25°C) Exit

Allocation(kWh 25°C) Entry

Allocation(kWh 25°C) Exit

kWh/

d


10

Montoir


01/01/2

013

11/01/2

013

21/01/2

013

31/01/2

013

10/02/2

013

20/02/2

013

02/03/2

013

12/03/2

013

22/03/2

013

01/04/2

013

11/04/2

013

21/04/2

013

01/05/2

013

11/05/2

013

21/05/2

013

31/05/2

013

10/06/2

013

20/06/2

013

30/06/2

013

10/07/2

013

20/07/2

013

30/07/2

013

09/08/2

013

19/08/2

013

29/08/2

013

08/09/2

013

18/09/2

013

28/09/2

013

08/10/2

013

18/10/2

013

28/10/2

013

07/11/2

0130

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000

450,000,000



kWh/

d

11

Fos


01/01/2

013

11/01/2

013

21/01/2

013

31/01/2

013

10/02/2

013

20/02/2

013

02/03/2

013

12/03/2

013

22/03/2

013

01/04/2

013

11/04/2

013

21/04/2

013

01/05/2

013

11/05/2

013

21/05/2

013

31/05/2

013

10/06/2

013

20/06/2

013

30/06/2

013

10/07/2

013

20/07/2

013

30/07/2

013

09/08/2

013

19/08/2

013

29/08/2

013

08/09/2

013

18/09/2

013

28/09/2

013

08/10/2

013

18/10/2

013

28/10/2

013

07/11/2

0130

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000

450,000,000



kWh/

d

Agenda





13

Larrau Interconnection Point (Historical)

Winter

Capacités fermes commercialisables

Capacités souscrites

Nominations moyennes

Nominations réelles

Firm marketable capacities

Subscribed capacities

Average nominations

Nominations

* Rate of use of subscribed capacities

Summer

All firm marketable capacities (France Spain) have been subscribed

Between 2008 & 2012 shippers have used around 70 % of their capacities.

Strong increase of rate of use for the last 3 years• 50% en 2010• around 100 % in2012

14

Larrau Interconnection Point (2013)

Capacity increase 1st april

Capacity increase 1st april

99% rate of use

64% rate of use

10% rate of use

15

Biriatou Interconnection Point (2013)

76% rate of use

Agenda





17

Utilisation of LNG terminalsDecrease of LNG terminals use

HUELVABARCELONA

CARTAGENA BILBAO

18

Utilisation of LNG terminalsDecrease of LNG terminals use

SAGUNTOREGANOSA

* Data as from 1 April 2008

19

BARCELONA

20

HUELVA

21

CARTAGENA

BILBAO

SAGUNTO

REGANOSA

Utilisation of Third country IPs

TARIFA ALMERIA

* Data as from March 2011

0

50.000.000

100.000.000

150.000.000

200.000.000

250.000.000

300.000.000

350.000.000

400.000.000

1-Jan-13 1-Feb-13 1-Mar-13 1-Apr-13 1-May-13 1-Jun-13 1-Jul-13 1-Aug-13 1-Sep-13 1-Oct-13 1-Nov-13

Kwh/

day

Tarifa 2013

Technical Capacity

Booked capacity

Physical Flow

TARIFA

0

50.000.000

100.000.000

150.000.000

200.000.000

250.000.000

300.000.000

1-Jan-13 1-Feb-13 1-Mar-13 1-Apr-13 1-May-13 1-Jun-13 1-Jul-13 1-Aug-13 1-Sep-13 1-Oct-13 1-Nov-13

Kwh/

day

Almeria 2013

Technical Capacity

Booked capacity

Physical Flow

ALMERIA

Agenda





29

Portugal – Spain Interconnectionsand

Sines LNG Terminal

o Cross-border capacity is marketed since Oct-12 in the VIP

o Both IPs are bi-directionalo Sines LNG Terminal offers back-haul

capacity to the market

IP 34 – Valença do Minho / Tuy (V.M./Tuy)

IP 35 – Badajoz / Campo Maior(Badajoz/C.M.)

Virtual InterconnectionPoint (VIP)

Sines LNG Terminal

• Cross-border flows occur >99% through

Badajoz/C.M. IP

• LNG / NG split is around 43%

30

LNG and Cross-border FlowsHistorical Data (2009-2012)

o Cross-border imports to the Portuguese gas system for the last 5 years show a slight increase as LNG flows are dropping in the same period

o Rates of Use / average regasification:

• LNG Terminal

• 2009: 44% / 99 GWh/day

• 2012: 29% / 61 GWh/day

• Interconnections (Import)

• 2009: 36% / 62 GWh/day

• 2012: 44% / 74 GWh/day

o Peak flows remain above 70% in both entries

(At IP Badajoz/C.M. alone, peak flow was 90% on average for the last 4 years)

Sines LNG Terminal

Cross-border - Import Cross-border - Export

CAGR: -11.2%

CAGR: +4.2%

Physical flows in export

direction only occur at

V.M./Tuy IP

31

Sines LNG Terminal2013 (Jan-Oct)

o Average rate of use of regasification is 27%o Minimum send-out capacity is 33 GWh/day (16% of technical capacity)o Use of back-haul capacity is marginal (0-8 GWh/day)

32

Interconnections Portugal-Spain2013 (Jan-Oct)

o Cross-border flows are managed as one single interconnection

o For operational reasons, gas flows predominantly through Badajoz/C.M. IP

o Import fluctuations are compensated by LNG flow variations to maintain domestic consumption supply

Thank you for your attention

South Region

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