Minnesota's Changing Demographics and What It Means for ......Minnesota’s population at -a-glance...
21
Minnesota's Changing Demographics and What It Means for Our Workforce Susan Brower, Minnesota State Demographer January 10, 2019
Transcript of Minnesota's Changing Demographics and What It Means for ......Minnesota’s population at -a-glance...
Minnesota's Changing Demographics and What It Means for Our Workforce
Susan Brower, Minnesota State DemographerJanuary 10, 2019
Minnesota’s population at-a-glance
• Minnesota’s 2018 population was estimated to be 5,611,179
• Minnesota's population grew 5.8% between 2010 and 2018, adding 307,254 residents. 1.4%
2.1%
5.8%
6.0%
8.4%
8.9%
Northeast
Midwest
Minnesota
U.S.
West
South
Population Growth, 2010-2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program
Po
Population Change, 2010-2015
2010-2017
Majority of the growth (83%) occurred in 7-county metro
• MN grew by 274,000 in 7 years
• Hennepin and Ramsey added 135,00 jointly
Source: MN State Demographic Center and Metropolitan Council Annual Estimates
Minneapolis 41,412St. Paul 24,112Rochester 9,052Blaine 8,183Woodbury 7,465Plymouth 6,306Lakeville 6,039Bloomington 5,992Moorhead 5,375Maple Grove 5,247Brooklyn Park 5,085Edina 4,556Shakopee 4,443Eagan 4,282Rogers 4,156
Minnesota’s 15 Fastest Growing Cities 2010-2017
2020 Census is almost here
The 2020 Census will:
• Determine the number of congressional seats Minnesota has
• Determine the geographic distribution of political power across the state
• Guide the distribution of more than 8 billion dollars per year to Minnesota communities
Reapportionment after the 2010 Census
Population change in Congressional Districts since
2010
Population Aging7
85 55 71 67 47
91
- - - - -
1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s
Number of additional older adults, age 65+ (thousands)
This decade and next: Unprecedented increases in MN’s 65+ population
This decade and next: Unprecedented increases in MN’s 65+ population
85 55 71 67 47
91
285 335
97 66 56
1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s
Change in older adults, age 65+ (in thousands)
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center
250000 150000 50000 50000 150000 250000
Under 5 5 to 9
10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 to 89
90+
Population by age and sexMinnesota, 2015
Baby Boomers
GenX
Millennials
Source: MN State Demographic Center Projections
The transition to an older Minnesota has just begun
First boomer turns 65
You are here
First boomer turns 80
Last boomer turns 65
Last boomer turns 80
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Over time, aging could have a major impact on the state’s budget
• 1.1 billion spent on Long Term Care in 2015 (split 50/50 with federal gov’t)
• 85% increase in enrollments and 2.5% inflation between 2015 and 2040, yields a yearly price tag of $3.8 billion annually by 2040
38,500
59,300
71,500
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
Projected Enrollment in Medical Assistance for Long Term Care
Source: MN Department of Human Services, Reports and Forecasts Division
Minnesota’s labor force growth is projected to slow furtherover the next 10 years
40,000
54,000
34,000
21,000
7,000 6,000 6,000 9,000
13,000 15,000 15,000
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
2040-2045
2045-2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (1980—2015) & MN State Demographic Center Projections (2015-2045)
Older Minnesotans are working longer than in the past,but they are still retiring in large numbers
0102030405060708090
100
16-19
20-21
22-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-61
62-64
65-69
70-74
75+
LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION BY AGEMINNESOTA, 1990-2015
1990 2000 2010 2015Source: IPUMS-USA, University of Minnesota, www.ipums.org.
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,00019
91
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
International Net Domestic Net Total Net Migration
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Population Estimates Program
Source: Minnesota Job Vacancies Survey, MN DEED 16
Trends in Racial and Ethnic Diversity
Populations of Color now jointly total more than 1 million in MN, 20% of the population
American Indian, 53,275
Asian, 269,799
Black, 357,381
Latino, 295,970
Other/Multiracial, 146,160
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017
Growth of Populations of ColorMinnesota 1960-2017
Source: ipums.org from U.S. Census Bureau data
Foreign-born population has been growing since 1990
490,000 (20%)449,000 (8%)
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016
Foreign-born in MN
Source: Tabulated from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series
Minnesota is more racially diverse at younger agesMinnesota 2017
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84
85+
Minnesota, 2017
Of ColorWhite Non-Hispanic
32% Of Color
4% Of Color
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program
