Milngavie Sept 2014 - Baldernock Garden · Napoleon in Russia 1812 Agincourt 1415 •Francis...

© Crown copyright Met Of f ice

Milngavie Sept 2014 Alex Hill, Chief Advisor’s Office

[email protected]


Milgavie • Perspective History & Sceptics

• Future World

• Future Scotland

• What Next?

History & Weather


“Marching through the middle of the mud where they sank up to their knees.”

• The Spanish Armada July 1588

Napoleon in Russia 1812

Agincourt 1415 •Francis Beaufort

•Vice Admiral Robert Fitzroy

•Board of Trade

•1st World War

•Air Ministry 1920

•1st radio broadcast

•NWP & Richardson1922

Group Captain Sir James Martin Stagg D-Day Forecasting for Overlord

What have you done today?


Climate Change – The problem of persuasion

• It’s not getting warmer!

• We’ve been here before

• It’s the sun wot did it

• I’m confused

• I don’t believe it!!


Evidence Evidence!


I’m Confused

“The effects of climate change is a bit like crystal ball gazing with some widespread and varying predictions for the future”. ACPOS 2007


Hmmmm!

Kilbirnie 1st Aug 2008

WG 1 Atmospheric CO2


Future World

© Crown copyright Met Office© Crown copyright Met Office

Attribution of climate change impacts

AR5 WG 2 Major Crops


WG 2 Health impacts

• Up to 2050’s Exacerbation

• VH Confidence


• Towards 2100 - Increase in ill-health especially in developing regions

•high confidence.


WG2 Summary


• Focused on the risks from climate variability and change

• Changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems

• Adaptation experience is accumulating and can reduce the risks

• Discussed future risk to people, infrastructure, natural systems and economies

J Roff


WG 3 Summary

GHG Emissions continue to rise Much of the increase is driven by increased wealth & population Very unlikely to stay below 2C without CCS Costs are uncertain

Mitigation & Adaptation must go hand in hand Global, regional and local changes Changes in other climate variables Long term trends and changes in extremes


2ºC rise Links & Consequences

2 deg map to go here

Current City population • 3-10 million • 10-20 million

Change in temperature from pre-industrial climate

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Some risk of melting

ice

Ocean Acidification

Forest fire

Reduced crops

Forest fire

Some increased

crops

More heatwaves


4ºC rise Links & Consequences 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Current City population • 3-10 million • 10-20 million

Melting ice

Ocean Acidification

Rainforest loss

Reduced crops

Forest fire

Increased drought

Stronger tropical storms

Methane release

More heatwaves

Global Supply Chain –Thinking About The Future

www.emeraldinsight.com

http://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=1603467&show=html�


2050 - Sour Grapes? http://www.pnas.org


Example; Coffee Growth


Example; Coffee Production

1kg needs 90,000 litres of water 1 Kilowatt hour / Cup www.thecoffeguide.org


Recent


Future Scotland



Impacts Scotland Effect

Summer Temperatures

Winter Temperatures

Winter Rainfall

Summer Rainfall

Seasonal Weather Patterns

Sea Level

Impact • Agriculture • Biodiversity and ecosystem

resilience • Built environment • Business and industry • Emergency and rescue

services • Energy • Forests and forestry • Health and wellbeing • Marine and fisheries • Spatial planning and land use • Transport • Water resource management

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Environment/climatechange/scotlands-action/adaptation/AdaptationFramework/SAP/Agriculture�

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Environment/climatechange/scotlands-action/adaptation/AdaptationFramework/SAP/Biodiversity�



http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Environment/climatechange/scotlands-action/adaptation/AdaptationFramework/SAP/BuiltEnvironment�


http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Environment/climatechange/scotlands-action/adaptation/AdaptationFramework/SAP/BusinessandIndustry�


http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Environment/climatechange/scotlands-action/adaptation/AdaptationFramework/SAP/EmergencyandRescue�



http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Environment/climatechange/scotlands-action/adaptation/AdaptationFramework/SAP/Energy�


http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Environment/climatechange/scotlands-action/adaptation/AdaptationFramework/SAP/Forests�


http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Environment/climatechange/scotlands-action/adaptation/AdaptationFramework/SAP/Health�


http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Environment/climatechange/scotlands-action/adaptation/AdaptationFramework/SAP/MarineandFisheries�


http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Environment/climatechange/scotlands-action/adaptation/AdaptationFramework/SAP/SpatialPlanning-1�


http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Environment/climatechange/scotlands-action/adaptation/AdaptationFramework/SAP/Transport�


http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Environment/climatechange/scotlands-action/adaptation/AdaptationFramework/SAP/WaterResourceManagement�


© Crown copyright Met Of f ice © Crown copyright Met Of f ice

The Future UKCP09

UKCP09 is big. Really big. You wont believe just how vastly, hugely, mindbogglingly big it is. (with apologies to Douglas Adams & Hitchikers Guide to the Galaxy)


UKCP09

Three different emission scenarios

Seven different timeframes

25km grid, 16 admin regions, 23 river-basins and 9 marine regions

© Crown copyright Met Of f ice Slide by Erika Palin

Increase in probability of extremes in a warmer climate • Temperature now

Probability of

occurrence

Hot temperature

extremes Cold temperature

extremes

(After IPCC 2007 & Karl et al. 2008)

• Temperature in future

Fewer cold

extremes

More hot extremes

More record hot extremes

Cold threshold

Average Hot threshold

New average


Warmest day


Warmest night


IMPACT


observations Met Office Projections

2040s

2060s Eu

rope

Tem

p an

omal

y (w

rt 1

961-

90)

°C

2003

2 deg c

Ave


UKCP09 Some Outputs

• Temperature difference for the warmest day summer in the 2080s

• High Emissions Scenario


UKCP09 + Met Office

Change in minimum temperature by 2041-2050

Climate change Climate change + UHI

War

mer

© Crown copyright Met Of f ice © Crown copyright Met Of f ice © Crown copyright Met Of f ice

Summer 2003

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

01-Jul 08-Jul 15-Jul 22-Jul 29-Jul 05-Aug 12-Aug 19-Aug 26-Aug

no. o

f dea

ths

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

tem

pera

ture

o C

Average daily deaths 1998-2002

ONS Estimated daily deaths 2003

Maximum temperature (London)

2000 extra deaths in the UK

Peaks in death rate coincides with peaks in temperatures

Average daily deaths

Daily deaths 2003

Maximum temperature (London)


Some Output Winter Rain 2040s


Some Output Winter Rain 2080s


UKCP09 + Met Office

1980’s 2080’s Total rainfall in an event with a 1 in 30 year return period

wet

ter


0

1

2

3

4

5Low emissions

Medium emissions

High emissions

Adapting now, mitigating for the future?

Cha

nge

in te

mpe

ratu

re in

so

uth

east

Eng

land

(°C

)

2050’s 2080’s

Adaptation

Mitigation

2020’s

IPCC 20C


What happens next?


© Crown copyright Met Of f ice © Crown copyright Met Of f ice

Adaptation, Resilience and Preparedness

Increasing vulnerability to natural climate variability

CC - Next 20-30 years is already committed

• regional and local changes in climate?

• hazardous weather?

• natural climate variability influence on climate change and Vice Versa?


Mind The Gap

• Weather

•Severe events

•1 to 10 days

•Reduced skill with time

•Climate Change

•CP09 – no events

•50+ years

•No skill < 30yrs

The G

ap


Mind the Gap

• Natural Variability

• Atlantic Multi-decadal Variations

• Arctic Sea Ice changes

• El Nino/La Nina

• Solar output

The G

ap


What we do today


What you should do tomorrow ( not to scale! )

Impact • Agriculture • Biodiversity and ecosystem resilience • Built environment • Business and industry • Emergency and rescue services • Energy • Forests and forestry • Health and wellbeing • Marine and fisheries • Spatial planning and land use • Transport • Water resource management

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Environment/climatechange/scotlands-action/adaptation/AdaptationFramework/SAP/Agriculture�
























STEP 3 – BASELINE CLIMATE RISK

Aim:

To assess the present risk due to the current weather and climate.


The Challenge

“The past is a foreign country, they do things differently there”

( L.P. Hartley)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/guide/ukcp/business_advice/

Bulletin of American Meteorological Society BAMS

• 2011 Weather Extremes & Climate Change

• Climate Attribution

• Human Influence

• Probabilistic

• Stacking the Deck

• Highlights

Texas heat-wave 2011 20 times more likely than 50 years ago in El nino years!

Warm Novembers in UK

60 times more likely

Bulletin of American Meteorological Society BAMS

• 2012 Weather Extremes & Climate Change

• Climate Attribution

• Human Influence

• Probabilistic

• Stacking the Deck

• Highlights

More Like Sandy Expected

Bulletin of American Meteorological Society 2012

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&docid=EJ-6BBEKEsuoWM&tbnid=sILbOaAEjxBFrM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/03/26/arctic-sea-ice-reaches-maximum-6th-lowest-on-record/&ei=LX9JUtbmDsLRtAbjp4FY&psig=AFQjCNG2FFepYJfFStxJJjOAs5E5nyya1g&ust=1380634584862290�

Bulletin of American Meteorological Society 2012

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=GwTIBdi0JjUsgM&tbnid=3AW1_-577pZoFM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/photo/2013-07/11/c_132533348.htm&ei=MoJJUobaLs_KswaL9YCIDg&bvm=bv.53217764,d.bGE&psig=AFQjCNEUVxPPlCFYMV271D_9z5dh_x46NQ&ust=1380635484366801�

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=fOewrzMYE5DtwM&tbnid=GDFKZWznHuIhUM:&ved=&url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_East_Africa_drought&ei=-IJJUrLLGMOS4AS2yoDoBw&psig=AFQjCNEjagyjxg8GAsTidZG6tIMn1Uu8Vw&ust=1380635768500822�

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